Aggregator

No watches are valid as of Sat Sep 16 21:31:02 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday... Within the base of a large-scale trough over western Canada, several embedded midlevel perturbations accompanied by strong westerly flow aloft will overspread the northwestern CONUS on Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday. Related downslope trajectories off the northern Cascades and northern Rockies will favor dry/breezy conditions across the Columbia Basin (on Day 3/Monday) and the northern Plains (on Days 3-4/Monday-Tuesday). Given dry fuels across both areas, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Days 5-8/Wednesday-Saturday... A substantial mid/upper-level jet streak will advance southward along the West Coast, resulting in the development of a midlevel cut-off low over the western CONUS. Along the northwestern periphery of this feature, strong north-northeasterly surface winds will overspread Washington and Oregon. However, current indications are that increasing low/mid-level moisture and related cloud coverage may limit RH reductions and the overall fire-weather risk. Along the southern and eastern peripheries of the cut-off low, an expansive area of strong surface winds and low RH are expected across portions of the Southwest into the southern/central Rockies. While the dry/windy conditions will result in increasing fire-weather concerns, recent rainfall and generally unreceptive fuels cast uncertainty on the overall risk -- precluding Critical probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 09/16/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 16 Sep 2023 20:34:15 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 16 Sep 2023 21:41:50 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sat Sep 16 2023 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 162033 TCDEP2 Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122023 1100 AM HST Sat Sep 16 2023 The structure of the depression has degraded during the last several hours. The low-level center is now completely exposed and well removed to the west of a decaying area of deep convection. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt, but this could be a little generous. The system is moving westward at 10 kt. A westward to west-southwestward motion is expected in the low- to mid-level flow during the next day or so. The depression, or its remnant low, is expected to move into the Central Pacific basin this afternoon. Strong shear and dry air will continue to affect the depression and should ultimately cause the system to lose the remaining convection by tonight, as persistently forecast by the GFS and ECMWF models. Dissipation is likely to occur by 36 hours. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 500 PM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP4, WMO header WTPA34 PHFO. Products will continue to be available on the web at hurricanes.gov FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 14.2N 139.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 13.9N 141.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 17/1800Z 13.5N 142.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...DEPRESSION NEAR THE CENTRAL PACIFIC AND POORLY ORGANIZED... ...THE NEXT ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER... As of 11:00 AM HST Sat Sep 16 the center of Twelve-E was located near 14.2, -139.7 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 16 2023 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 162033 PWSEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122023 2100 UTC SAT SEP 16 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 139.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sat Sep 16 2023 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 162033 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twelve-E Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122023 1100 AM HST Sat Sep 16 2023 ...DEPRESSION NEAR THE CENTRAL PACIFIC AND POORLY ORGANIZED... ...THE NEXT ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 139.7W ABOUT 1085 MI...1745 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1290 MI...2080 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twelve-E was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 139.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward to west-southwestward motion is expected during the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected, and the depression is forecast to become a remnant low tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 500 PM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP4, WMO header WTPA34 PHFO. Products will continue to be available on the web at hurricanes.gov $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 16 2023 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 162032 TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122023 2100 UTC SAT SEP 16 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 139.7W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 139.7W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 139.2W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 13.9N 141.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 13.5N 142.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 139.7W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN FORECAST/ ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER BEGINNING AT 0300 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCMCP4 ...WMO HEADER WTPA24 PHFO. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms remain possible across a portion of southeastern Texas, and will continue over parts of the central Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley this afternoon and evening. ...Discussion... Few changes appear necessary to the ongoing outlook at this time, as current and anticipated evolution of convection remains in line with prior expectations. The primary changes in this outlook will trimming the MRGL risk area and removal of hail probability in southeastern Texas, in line with current convection evolution and motion, and also a slight northwestward expansion of MRGL risk over the southeastern Minnesota vicinity, where convection continues to develop just to the west of the existing outlook area. Otherwise, prior reasoning remains valid, across the CONUS. ..Goss.. 09/16/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023/ ...TX... A long-lived MCS continues to track slowly southeastward across central TX. These storms produced occasional strong-severe wind gusts earlier this morning near/northwest of SJT. However, more recent trends have shown a general decreasing trend. At least remnants of the MCS are expected to persist through the day and track southeastward toward the coast. However, given the relatively weak winds aloft and lack of a more focused forcing mechanism, it is likely that the overall severe threat will remain rather marginal. Locally strong-damaging wind gusts will be the main risk. ...Central Plains into Mid MS Valley... A relatively strong upper trough and associated surface cold front is moving southeastward across parts of MN/WI/IA. By mid/late afternoon, this front will extend from near the KS/NE border into southern IA and southern WI. Scattered thunderstorm development will occur along/ahead of the front, in a moderately unstable air mass. Cool mid-level temperatures (-16 to -18C at 500mb) coupled with dewpoints in the 60s may result in sufficiently favorable thermodynamics for hail in the stronger updrafts. Steep low-level lapse rates could also promote gusty winds. However, the overall severe threat appears rather marginal at this time. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA... The primary change with this update was to add an Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area over portions of northern California into south-central Oregon -- where fuels are modestly receptive. Similar to Day 1/Saturday, sufficient midlevel moisture and diurnal heating will support isolated thunderstorms over the higher terrain during the afternoon/evening hours -- aided by weak large-scale ascent preceding a mid/upper-level low off the California coast. Inverted-V thermodynamic profiles and 0.5-0.8 inch PW will favor a mix of dry/wet storms (mostly dry), with an attendant risk of isolated lightning-induced ignitions. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only minor changes made based on the latest high-resolution guidance. ..Weinman.. 09/16/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023/ ...Synopsis... ...North-central Montana... A shortwave trough will move across southern Alberta on Sunday, this will overspread stronger mid-level flow across northern Montana and lead to lee cyclogenesis east of the Canadian Rockies with a tightening pressure gradient. The combination of deep mixing beneath this stronger mid-level flow, downslope flow, and a tightening surface pressure gradient, will lead to strong winds across northern Montana on Sunday. In addition, relative humidity will be very dry (9 to 16 percent). Much of this area has received less than half an inch of precipitation in the past 2 weeks. Therefore, given the weather conditions and dry fuels, there will be critical fire weather concerns across north-central Montana on Sunday. Farther west, some dry and breezy conditions are expected in the Columbia Basin as moderate mid-level flow remains in a region of deep boundary-layer mixing. Therefore, some elevated fire weather concerns are possible during the afternoon on Sunday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161739
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Sep 16 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Twelve-E, located over the western portion of the East
Pacific.

Central East Pacific:
A broad area of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms well south of southern Mexico. Environmental
conditions are forecast to become conducive for gradual development
of this system, and a tropical depression could form by the middle
of next week. The system is expected to move west-northwestward over
the central and western portions of the east Pacific during the next
several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening over parts of southeast Georgia and the Carolina Coastal Plain. A mid-level trough initially extending from the Upper Great Lakes south-southwestward to the central Gulf Coast area will advance steadily toward the Appalachians through Monday morning. Elsewhere, ridging aloft will prevail across much of the country. At the surface, a weak/diffuse front will progress eastward across the Appalachians, and then become a bit better-organized -- reaching the East Coast overnight. A weak frontal wave is forecast to evolve over southeastern Georgia during the day, and then move northeastward along the Carolina Coast through the second half of the period. ...Southeast... Daytime heating/weak destabilization is forecast over parts of Georgia and South Carolina Sunday, in the vicinity of the developing frontal wave. This should support development of showers and isolated thunderstorms, which would then spread northeastward in the vicinity of the North Carolina coast later in the period. With enhanced shear in the vicinity of the frontal wave, a few stronger storms/storm clusters may evolve with time, accompanied by risk for locally gusty winds. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out, particularly near or just off the Carolina coast through the second half of the period. ..Goss.. 09/16/2023 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Sep 15 22:16:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Sep 15 22:16:02 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2023 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z The greatest potential for critical fire-weather conditions will generally be confined to portions of the northern Plains (particularly northern Montana) and the Northwest during the extended forecast period. ...Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday - Northern Montana... Strong westerly flow aloft accompanying a series of midlevel shortwave troughs will overspread the northern Rockies and adjacent northern Plains on Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday. On Day 3/Sunday, downslope-related warming/drying will yield 10-15 percent RH across northern Montana. Deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, coupled with a tightening pressure gradient, will support 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) in the lee of the northern Rockies in Montana. Given dry fuels across this area, critical fire-weather conditions are expected on Day 3/Sunday. Critical conditions will also be possible across the area on Day 4/Monday, though confidence in the overlap of 20 mph sustained surface winds and 20 percent RH is lower than Day 3/Sunday -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. ...Day 3/Sunday - Northwest... Similar to the northern Rockies, strong westerly flow across the northern Cascades will promote dry/breezy conditions -- primarily across the Columbia Basin on Day 3/Sunday. 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds and 10-15 percent minimum RH will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Currently, these conditions appear too localized to terrain features to add 70-percent Critical probabilities. Late in the extended forecast period, strong offshore winds could develop across the Northwest, though large differences amongst the global model guidance regarding the evolution of a midlevel low casts uncertainty on where the fire-weather threat will be maximized. ..Weinman.. 09/15/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 15 Sep 2023 20:58:13 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 15 Sep 2023 21:43:50 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 15 2023 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 152037 PWSEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122023 ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 2100 UTC FRI SEP 15 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 140W 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER R BALLARD

Issued at 1100 AM HST Fri Sep 15 2023 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 152037 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twelve-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122023 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 1100 AM HST Fri Sep 15 2023 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E FORMS IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 136.2W ABOUT 1285 MI...2065 KM E OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1485 MI...2390 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twelve-E was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 136.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected over the next day or so, but the depression is expected to dissipate as a remnant low within a couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster R Ballard

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E FORMS IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN... As of 11:00 AM HST Fri Sep 15 the center of Twelve-E was located near 15.1, -136.2 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM HST Fri Sep 15 2023 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 152033 TCDEP2 Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122023 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 1100 AM HST Fri Sep 15 2023 The tropical disturbance that we've been watching for a few days had a burst of vigorous deep convection overnight. Overnight microwave passes and satellite imagery over the last 24 hours have shown increased organization at times in the convective banding. The deep convection now appears to be persistent and organized enough to classify this system as a tropical depression. A blend of satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and CPHC suggest initiating advisories for this system with an intensity of 25 kt. More recently, visible satellite imagery is showing the low level center has emerged from the higher clouds associated with the convection. UW-CIMSS shear analysis indicates that Tropical Depression 12E is embedded within the southern periphery of a belt of stronger westerly shear, associated with the subtropical jet stream to the north. The depression is not likely to last long, as global models indicate the subtropical jet will sag south a bit over the next couple of days, maintaining westerly shear over the system. Simulated satellite imagery from the global models suggests that occasional pulses of deep convection may continue for a day or so as the system is steered toward the west-southwest by the trade wind flow to the south of a strengthening subtropical ridge. The track forecast most closely follows the TVCN until the system becomes a remnant low far to the east-southeast of Hawaii. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 15.1N 136.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 15.0N 137.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 14.8N 138.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 14.7N 140.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/1800Z 14.5N 141.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster R Ballard