Aggregator

No watches are valid as of Wed Sep 20 22:31:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Sep 20 22:31:02 UTC 2023.

The City of Kyle used 89% of its water for the entire year by the end of August and needed to purchase more water to supply the city through the remainder of 2023. San Marcos City Council voted to sell water to Kyle just as it did in 2022. San Marcos has been in stage 4 water restrictions since late August. KUT News (Austin, Texas), Sept 20, 2023

The Maryland Department of the Environment put some northern counties in a drought warning rather than a drought watch. Counties in a drought warning include Baltimore, Carroll, Cecil, Frederick, Harford, Howard and Montgomery counties, except those areas served by Baltimore City or Washington Suburban Sanitary Commission public water systems. The shift to drought warning status was due to lower-than-normal stream flows and groundwater levels for this time of year. Washington, Allegany and Garret counties remained in a drought watch. The Herald-Mail (Hagerstown, Md.), Sept 20, 2023

The Mississippi River has dropped so low that American Cruise Lines notified Vicksburg that its ships will not dock nearby and will dock downriver instead and bus passengers to Vicksburg. Low river levels deprive Vicksburg of tourism. Water levels have fallen to near record levels a full month ahead of last year’s low water stages, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The Mississippi River has fallen 15 feet in a month. WAPT Channel 16 Online (Jackson, Miss.), Sept 20, 2023

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 20 Sep 2023 20:39:03 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 20 Sep 2023 21:28:52 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 20 2023 870 WTPZ43 KNHC 202038 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132023 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 20 2023 Kenneth's cloud pattern has not changed appreciably during the last 6 hours. The average of the latest TAFB and SAB Dvorak numbers is 45 kt. Most of the objective intensity estimates are a bit lower. Based on the above data, the initial intensity is maintained at 45 kt for this advisory. The center of Kenneth is estimated to be near the southern edge of the central dense overcast. However, the current position is quite uncertain. The initial motion is estimated at 290/9 kt. A turn to the northwest and north-northwest is expected on Thursday between a subtropical high centered over northwestern Mexico and a potent mid- to upper-level trough to the northwest of Kenneth. The track forecast has been adjusted a bit to the north of the previous NHC track prediction, but not as far north as the latest consensus models. Kenneth is currently located in an environment that is favorable enough for it to at least maintain its intensity over the next 12-24 hours. However, a more stable air mass is located just to the north and northwest of the cyclone, as evidenced by scattered low stratus clouds seen on GOES-18 satellite imagery, indicative of a marine boundary layer. As Kenneth approaches the mid- to upper-level trough over the next couple of days, strong southwesterly wind shear will increasingly encroach on Kenneth. Kenneth will also cross the 26C isotherm about the same time the shear ramps up Thursday evening. Therefore, steady weakening is forecast, and Kenneth should become a remnant low Friday night or Saturday. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and is near the middle of the intensity consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 15.7N 124.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 16.2N 125.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 17.3N 126.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 18.5N 126.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 20.0N 127.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 23/0600Z 21.0N 127.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/1800Z 21.8N 127.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Roberts

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 20 2023 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 202036 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132023 2100 UTC WED SEP 20 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/ROBERTS

Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 20 2023 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 202035 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kenneth Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132023 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 20 2023 ...KENNETH MAINTAINING INTENSITY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 124.2W ABOUT 1055 MI...1700 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kenneth was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 124.2 West. Kenneth is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the northwest and north-northwest is anticipated Thursday and Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected to commence by Thursday night, and Kenneth should become a remnant low Friday night or early Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Roberts

...KENNETH MAINTAINING INTENSITY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Wed Sep 20 the center of Kenneth was located near 15.7, -124.2 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 20 2023 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 202035 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132023 2100 UTC WED SEP 20 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 124.2W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 124.2W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 123.9W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.2N 125.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 17.3N 126.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 18.5N 126.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 20.0N 127.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 21.0N 127.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 21.8N 127.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 124.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/ROBERTS

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2023 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z ...Day 3/Friday... A strong westerly mid/upper-level jet streak, accompanying a deep midlevel low tracking eastward across the northern Rockies, will impinge on the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains on Day 3/Friday. A related surface low will deepen over the KS/CO border, yielding a tightening surface pressure gradient across the region. Downslope warming/drying (10-15 percent RH) over northeast NM, the western TX/OK Panhandles, and southeastern CO, combined with breezy/gusty westerly surface winds, will support elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. The primary limiting factor is marginal fuels across the area, precluding 70-percent Critical probabilities. Beyond Day 3/Friday, the potential for critical meteorological conditions over dry fuels appears low. ..Weinman.. 09/20/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2023 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms capable of hail and gusty winds are possible across parts of southeastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas through this evening. Gusty winds may also accompany a few storms over the northern Great Basin. ...OK/TX... A very conditional risk for a strong/severe storm through early evening continues across parts of southeast OK into northeast TX. The Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk area has been trimmed from portions of eastern OK into western AR and far northeast TX. Persistent clouds and showers/thunderstorms have limited heating much of the day. Southwestern portions of the Marginal risk area have largely cleared out this afternoon and allowed temperatures to warm into the upper 70s to mid 80s. However, quite a bit of inhibition remains. Furthermore, HRRR and RRFS guidance shows little convective development this afternoon/evening. Some cumulus development is noted closer to the I-35 corridor amid stronger instability and weaker inhibition. Nebulous large-scale ascent may be insufficient to overcome this inhibition. However, if a storm can develop near the western edge of the Marginal risk and track southeast along residual outflow, a risk for hail and strong gusts could occur for a few hours. ...NV/UT/ID/WY... No changes have been made with the 20z update. See previous discussion below for more details. ..Leitman.. 09/20/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2023/ ...OK/AR/TX/LA... A persistent nocturnal MCS is weakening over western AR, with clearing skies over eastern OK in its wake. Strong heating will help yield a moderately unstable air mass by late afternoon across southeastern OK, where there will be some chance of a thunderstorm or two. Effective shear values of 40-50 knots and steep mid-level lapse rates will support a risk of large hail and damaging winds in any persistent storm that develops. However, weakening large scale support and a residual cap suggest the risk of initiation is rather low in the primary instability region. ...NV/UT/ID/WY... A rather dynamic upper trough is digging quickly southeastward today across the Pacific Northwest region. This will allow large scale ascent to overspread much of the northern Great Basin by this afternoon. A corridor of mid-level moisture ahead of the trough extends from northern NV into northwest WY, and should be favorable for the development of scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms later today. Skies are currently clear in this region, allowing steep low-level lapse rates to develop. As winds aloft strengthen this afternoon, the potential will exist for gusty/damaging wind gusts in a few of the fast-moving storms. Read more

107
ABPZ20 KNHC 201752
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Sep 20 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kenneth, located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Western East Pacific (EP96):
An area of low pressure well southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual
development of this system is possible late this week and over the
weekend while it moves generally westward into the Central Pacific
basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days
well southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Some slow development of this system is possible this
weekend, and a tropical depression could form by early next week
while it moves westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Roberts

Residents and business owners of Tampa were encouraged to use water wisely as the area endured ongoing drought, an abnormal rainy season and a significant increase in water use. Water demand within city limits has been about 4 million gallons more daily than at this time of year in the past. Tampa was buying additional water from Tampa Bay Water, the city’s wholesale water provider. WTSP 10 Tampa Bay (Fla.), Sept 20, 2023

Large cracks and holes on the fields at Ramon Lucio ballpark in San Marcos were blamed on the drought. Fields were not safe to use, so the Parks and Recreation department opted to delay play on Monday, Sept. 18. The rest of the park was still open. FOX 7 Austin (Texas), Sept 19, 2023

The cranberry harvest in Wisconsin may be tricky for growers because little rain has fallen, leaving pond levels down. WAOW-ABC 9-Wausau (Wis.), Sept 19, 2023

A burn ban was issued for York County and will be in effect from Sept. 21 through Oct. 5. The county also had burn bans in April and June. York Dispatch (Pa.), Sept. 19, 2023

Allamakee County was the 18th county in Iowa and the 11th county in the northeast part of the state to adopt a burn ban. Allamakee County’s ban took effect on Sept. 12. Waukon Standard (Iowa), Sept 20, 2023 Burn bans were in effect for 16 Iowa counties as drought and continuing dry conditions affected the region. Open burning was prohibited. KGAN-TV CBS 2 (Cedar Rapids, Iowa), Sept. 8, 2023

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 192306
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Sep 19 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Kenneth, located about 900 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg