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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND SOUTH TEXAS TO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible across southern parts of Texas, southwestern Louisiana, and the Florida Peninsula late this afternoon into this evening. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the severe probabilities. Isolated strong to potentially severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the FL Peninsula, and also across southern parts of Texas into southwest LA. See the previous discussion below for more information. Also see MCD 2196 for more information regarding the short-term threat near the upper TX coast. ..Dean.. 09/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023/ ...Southern Texas/southwest Louisiana... Multiple areas of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, generally in a weakening/diminishing trend through mid/late morning, exist across the region. Additional widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected to uptick in coverage and intensity later this afternoon, influenced by the southward-sagging front as well as several zones of outflow/differential heating. Multicellular storms will be common, with some potential for a few supercells particularly with westward extent across south-central/southwest Texas toward the Rio Grande, where deep-layer shear and buoyancy will be a bit stronger and where large hail potential is more apparent. This is aside from the potential for isolated severe wind gusts that will more broadly exist across the region. ...Central/southern Florida... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across the region this afternoon. Localized strong/severe wind gusts are possible along with the possibility of marginally severe hail. This regime is the east of upper troughing over the central/northeast Gulf of Mexico, with a moist environment (PW 1.75-2.25-inches) existing across much of the Peninsula, with sea breeze boundaries focusing increasing diurnal thunderstorm development. While deep-layer winds will be weak, veering with height will contribute to 20-30 kt effective-shear magnitudes, supporting multicellular storm organization. Convection should diminish in coverage and strength after sunset as a combination of nocturnal cooling and increasingly prevalent outflow air stabilizes the boundary layer inland. ...Southeast MN/western WI/northeast IA/northwest IL... A few funnels may occur this afternoon across the region in relative proximity to the southeastward-moving upper low (-16C at 500mb), focused near the surface occluded front that will be located near the Mississippi River, and generally oriented parallel to it. There is where low-level buoyancy including 100-125 J/kg 0-3 km CAPE will be maximized with ambient vorticity. While a tornado cannot be entirely discounted, the potential for such currently appears to be very low, while funnels/briefly strong storms are otherwise plausible within the weak vertical shear environment (effective/0-6 km shear magnitudes less than 20 kt). Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited for Tuesday. Strong low- to mid-level winds will continue to overspread the Pacific Northwest and into the northern Rockies through Tuesday. However, cooler temperatures and cloud cover behind an eastward-progressing cold front will modulate RH reductions for much of the region. Dry and breezy conditions will primarily be confined to immediately ahead of the front, but recent ensemble guidance depicts fairly low probability for sustained/widespread 15+ mph winds and sub-20% RH over areas with dry fuels. Sustained elevated fire weather conditions are most probable within the higher terrain of central ID to southwest MT, but ERCs across this region are near seasonally normal values. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

The ground was so dry across southeast Alabama that peanut farmers were having trouble unearthing the peanuts because little rain has fallen recently, leaving the ground very hard. Rain would still be beneficial in maturing some of the peanuts. WDHN-TV ABC 18 Dothan (Ala.), Sept 23, 2023

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251753
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Sep 25 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Lake Marburg in Codorus State Park has receded to reveal an old lake bridge. Hikers noticed cinder blocks and concrete recently. The bridge was part of the old village of Marburg, before it was abandoned to make way for the lake. FOX 43 (Harrisburg, Pa.), Sept 22, 2023

The owner of a pecan orchard in Seguin was inspecting his trees and was worried after finding 59 mature trees that died after a hot, dry summer. Thirty-eight trees younger than five years old have also died. The orchard owner has some limited irrigation capability, but the trees needed more water and relief from the intense heat. KXAN Online (Austin, Texas), Sept 25, 2023

The Tillamook Board of County Commissioners declared a local state of emergency due to drought on September 20. The need for such a declaration is highly unusual because the county typically receives more than 100 inches of rain annually. Some wells have run dry, and the Office of Resiliency and Emergency Management was delivering water. Because the area is usually flush with water, there were no companies operating potable water tanker trucks on the north coast, and few statewide. Tillamook Headlight Herald (Ore.), Sept 25, 2023

The mayor of New Orleans signed an emergency declaration over saltwater intrusion in the Mississippi River that is affecting water supplies in Plaquemines Parish. Weather forecasts suggest that river volume will drop to historic lows in the next several weeks. An underwater sill was constructed to slow movement of the saltwater in July, but the barrier was overtopped, so additional work to expand the sill will be untaken to keep the saltwater downriver. It is thought that saltwater intrusion can be delayed by roughly 10 to 15 days. ABC News, Sept 23, 2023

Intense heat and continuing drought in Louisiana were expected to lead to estimated losses of $135 million to $290 million in the beef cattle sector, per economists from LSU AgCenter. Limited hay supplies forced ranchers to sell cattle. Some cattle died from heat, but the biggest losses come from calves being weaned earlier than normal and cattle sales. Poor hay production is estimated to cost cattle producers $62 million to $108 million. Producers have sold from 10% to 30% of their permanent herds. AgFax (Brandon, Miss.), Aug 18, 2023

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Sep 24 22:30:18 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z Across the Pacific Northwest into Great Basin and the Northern Rockies, a trough and attendant cold front will bring widespread rainfall across much of the region with cooler temperatures and increasing relative humidity D2 - Monday into D3 - Tuesday. This will temper the fire weather concerns across these regions in the coming days. Pockets of dry and breezy conditions will remain possible for D3 - Tuesday through D5 - Wednesday across the desert southwest, however fuels are largely not receptive to fire spread due to recent rainfall. The general pattern through the end of the week will continue to include troughing across the western US with building high pressure across the central and eastern US. Long range models disagree on the exact amplitude of the western trough, with some indications of a more progressive open wave or slow moving cut off low. Ensembles guidance from the EPS and GEFS lean towards deeper trough and potential cut off low scenario. In either scenario, increasing flow across the western US will likely bring corridors of at least Elevated fire weather concerns. Uncertainty on exactly where dry/breezy conditions will overlap receptive fuels and potential for wetting rainfall lead to low confidence in including any probabilities at this time. ..Thornton.. 09/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0695 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0695 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 695 SEVERE TSTM TX 242150Z - 250400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 695 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 450 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North and central Texas * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 450 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Scattered high-based thunderstorms will form this afternoon into this evening from north into central Texas, and storms will subsequently move southeastward into early tonight. Supercells with isolated very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter will be possible across north Texas along with damaging outflow gusts up to 70 mph. Damaging winds will also be possible into central Texas with storm clusters. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north northeast of Dallas TX to 40 miles west of Austin TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 32020. ...Thompson Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2023 20:39:13 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2023 21:29:21 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sun Sep 24 2023 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 242038 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142023 1100 AM HST Sun Sep 24 2023 Moderate (15-20 kt) deep-layer shear and an enveloping dry and stable low- to mid-level atmosphere have taken their toll on the depression. The cyclone has lacked organized deep convection since last night and primarily consists of a swirl of low cloud elements, with deep convection well south of the surface center associated with the inter-tropical convergence zone. The initial intensity remains 30 kt based on a Dvorak CI number of 2.0 from TAFB. Despite warm waters ahead of the depression's track, the negative environmental contributions mentioned above should cause the depression to weaken further while impeding deep convective redevelopment. Subsequently, the cyclone is expected to degenerate to a remnant low later tonight and open into a trough in 4 days, or less. The exposed surface circulation's initial motion is estimated to be westward or 270/13 kt. The forecast track philosophy is unchanged. Mid-tropospheric high pressure extending from the Baja California peninsula to the western tropical East Pacific should steer the cyclone on a generally westward track through Monday. A turn toward the west-southwest is expected on Tuesday within the low-level tradewind steering flow through dissipation. The official forecast is an update of the previous one and is based on the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 15.2N 125.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 15.3N 127.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 25/1800Z 15.1N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/0600Z 14.7N 132.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/1800Z 13.8N 135.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 27/0600Z 12.7N 139.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/1800Z 11.5N 142.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 24 2023 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 242037 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142023 2100 UTC SUN SEP 24 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 X 11(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sun Sep 24 2023 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 242037 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142023 1100 AM HST Sun Sep 24 2023 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 125.5W ABOUT 1145 MI...1845 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen-E was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 125.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion should continue at a little faster forward speed through Monday. A turn toward the west-southwest is expected on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is forecast to become a remnant low tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Roberts

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW TONIGHT... As of 11:00 AM HST Sun Sep 24 the center of Fourteen-E was located near 15.2, -125.5 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 24 2023 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 242037 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142023 2100 UTC SUN SEP 24 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 125.5W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 125.5W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 124.9W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 15.3N 127.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 15.1N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 14.7N 132.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 13.8N 135.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 12.7N 139.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 11.5N 142.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 125.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS