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No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Mar 25 13:45:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 AM CDT Fri Mar 25 2022 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorm areas are forecast over the conterminous U.S. ...Synopsis/Discussion... Mean mid/upper-level troughing over the eastern CONUS will be maintained as a series of shortwaves and small cyclones pass through the associated cyclonic-flow field, south of a synoptic cyclone with multiple centers located over southeastern Canada. A leading shortwave trough --- evident in moisture-channel imagery over the Carolinas and GA to the northeastern Gulf -- will eject northeastward across the NC/VA Tidewater and Delmarva Peninsula around 18Z, while weakening rapidly. A trailing open-wave trough -- now over the Tennessee Valley region -- should pivot across eastern NC by around 00Z, then offshore soon thereafter. Isolated thunder cannot be ruled out near the southeastern NC coastline and ahead of this perturbation, in the associated regime of DCVA/cooling aloft and steepening midlevel lapse rates. However, potential over land currently appears too isolated for a general-thunder designation. A weaker perturbation -- currently over IA -- will follow closely, moving across SC then offshore between 00-06Z. Finally, a compact cyclone should develop from a strong shortwave trough now over the Upper Midwest. The resultant 500-mb low should reach the CLE vicinity by 12Z tomorrow. Ridging aloft will prevail west of the Rockies. At the surface, most of the central/eastern CONUS will remain under the influence of continental/polar air following yesterday's frontal passage out over Gulf/Atlantic waters. Weak lee troughing should form just east of the Rockies under mid/upper northwesterlies. The air mass in general should remain too dry and/or stable for areas of thunderstorms. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 03/25/2022 Read more

Stricter water conservation in Pleasanton starting in October 2021 has resulted in a usage reduction of 18%-22% and cost the water utility an estimated $3.2 million in revenue, which has drawn down the city’s financial reserves and risked its ability to finance an upcoming fix for Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances (PFAS) chemicals. Starting May 1, the city will increase its water rates and charge Stage Two Water Drought Rates, tacking on $0.65 per 100 cubic feet of water to single-family home water bills. Commercial and multi-family homes will see an added $0.62 per 100 cubic feet charge, and irrigation water users will see an added $0.65 per 100 cubic feet charge. This is the first time that Pleasanton’s drought rate activation has been used. Charges for May-June water use will appear on the July bill. Livermore Independent (Calif.), March 24, 2022

The Alameda County Water District, serving Fremont, Newark and Union City, increased the cost of every 100 cubic feet of water, or 748 gallons, used by $0.79, which adds about $6 to an average monthly bill. San Francisco Chronicle (Calif.), March 23, 2022

Water conservation has cost the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission millions of dollars as their customers use less water. Effective April 1, water and wastewater rates will be temporarily increased 5% for retail customers. The water conservation manager attested that the utility is not making a profit, but is just trying to recover their costs. Due to increased conservation, officials at the Public Utilities Commission project that the city will lose $66 million of revenue in the current fiscal year, from July 1, 2021, to June 30, 2022, representing about 6% of PUC’s water budget and about 7% of the annual wastewater budget. San Francisco Chronicle (Calif.), March 23, 2022

The San Francisco Public Utilities Commission urged almost 3 million water customers in the Bay Area to curb water use by 10% and declared a water shortage emergency due to the continuing drought. SFPUC serves water customers in San Francisco and portions of Alameda, Santa Clara and San Mateo counties. The SFPUC will also tack on a temporary drought surcharge of 5% for retail and wastewater customers, effective April 1, 2022. CBS San Francisco (Calif.), Nov 23, 2021

Areas of the Wild Turkey Strand Preserve were dry, although it is typically underwater during the summer. A marsh off of Daniels Parkway is dry, although the area is also typically underwater during the summer. Cypress trees and knees are exposed at the Corkscrew Regional Ecosystem Watershed, but this area, too, is typically underwater during the summer. Fort Myers News-Press (Fla.), March 22, 2022

San Benito County farmers will not receive state water for the rest of 2022. The San Benito County Water District, which distributes water to 500 agriculture accounts, was contracted to receive 35,500 acre-feet of water but has received none for the second year in a row. KSBW-TV Salinas (Calif.), March 23, 2022

The Brazos River Authority enacted a "Stage 1 Drought Watch" condition on March 21. Harker Heights residents are to reduce their water use by 5%. Harker Heights municipal water comes from Lake Belton. Killeen Daily Herald (Texas), March 21, 2022

Conditions remain very dry in central South Dakota as little snow fell this winter after an extremely dry 2021. Crop land, pastures and water supply are affected by the dryness. Last spring, dugouts for cattle had water, but this spring, there is little to no water and access is an issue. Producers will need to haul water. Some pastures are so dry that cattle cannot graze. Some producers are adjusting livestock stocking rates, considering alternate water for their cattle, and rethinking their crop rotation. Fire danger is a huge concern amid drought. KELOLAND-TV CBS 11 (Sioux Falls, S.D.), March 23, 2022

This spring Monongahela National Forest officials plan to conduct a prescribed burn on 1,119 acres of National Forest System land in the Peach Orchard area, northwest of Blue Bend Recreation Area in Greenbrier County.Why do we burn?Reintroducing fire into the forest will:Restore historic fire regimesImprove wildlife habitatEnhance forest structure and age diversityImprove oak regenerationControl tree diseases and insectsReduce hazardous fuel levelsHow do we manage a prescribed burn?Fire managers prepare a burn plan for each prescribed burn describing the appropriate conditions needed to conduct the burn safely and achieve the desired results. Burn plans consider public safety, protection of private property, staffing and equipment needs, temperature, humidity, wind, moisture of the vegetation, and smoke dispersal. Appropriate conditions must be met before igniting prescribed burns. A control line is established around each burn area before ignition, using hand tools and other...

This spring Monongahela National Forest officials plan to conduct a prescribed burn on 405 acres of National Forest System land in the Lick Mountain area, west of Neola in Greenbrier County.Why do we burn?Reintroducing fire into the forest will:Restore historic fire regimesImprove wildlife habitatEnhance forest structure and age diversityImprove oak regenerationControl tree diseases and insectsReduce hazardous fuel levelsHow do we manage a prescribed burn?Fire managers prepare a burn plan for each prescribed burn describing the appropriate conditions needed to conduct the burn safely and achieve the desired results. Burn plans consider public safety, protection of private property, staffing and equipment needs, temperature, humidity, wind, moisture of the vegetation, and smoke dispersal. Appropriate conditions must be met before igniting prescribed burns. A control line is established around each burn area before ignition, using hand tools and other equipment, roads, trails, and...

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Wed Mar 23 2022 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UPPER OH VALLEY VICINITY AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and scattered large hail are possible across the Upper Ohio Valley vicinity this afternoon. Otherwise, a couple tornadoes and isolated damaging winds or hail will remain possible across parts of the Midwest and Southeast regions into this evening. ...OH Valley and Midwest... A substantial shortwave impulse over the Ark-La-Miss will move northeast towards the Lower Great Lakes through this evening. An attendant intense mid-level speed max (at or above 110-kt at 500-mb) will become centered from central KY to the northern MS/AL border area by 21Z. While the primary surface cyclone will drift east-northeast across parts of northern IL, a secondary low should develop within the exit region of the mid-level jet across west-central to northwest OH along the arcing baroclinic zone. Cloud breaks to the west of stratiform rain across the central Appalachians should yield a pocket of modest buoyancy (MLCAPE of 500-750 J/kg), as a corridor of mid to upper 50s surface dew points become established within the thermal axis near the OH/WV/KY border area. Most CAMs suggest that scattered thunderstorms will develop towards early afternoon across the Cumberland Plateau and spread northeast across the Upper OH Valley. Very strong effective shear in excess of 70 knots should yield a highly elongated hodograph, and foster at least a few discrete splitting supercells. Optimal low-level hodographs may only be present in the early portion of the convective life cycle within in the narrow warm/moist sector, lowering confidence of a greater severe threat. Nevertheless, the presence of the surface warm front suggests a few tornadoes and scattered large hail appear possible. A more limited severe threat is anticipated farther west into IN where less boundary-layer heating and weaker low-level hodographs will be present. However, cooler mid-level temperatures yielding steeper lapse rates should support a primary threat of hail. The overall severe threat region-wide will subside after sunset. ...Southeast... Severe potential across the region appears much more nebulous and sporadic through this evening. Low-level hodographs will remain enlarged within broad 40-50 kt 850-mb southerlies, but the low-level jet axis will shift northeast through the day. The best potential for moderate buoyancy should exist across parts of the South Atlantic Coast ahead of a generally weakening swath of convection over the FL Panhandle into parts of GA. It is plausible that remnants of this activity may intensify with diurnal heating and pose some threat for a couple tornadoes and locally damaging winds. Otherwise, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop this afternoon within the warm conveyor region from the GA/SC border area north into southern VA, in the wake of a leading swath of showers. Boundary-layer heating is expected to be limited and mid-level lapse rates weak, suggesting that MLCAPE should only reach around 500 J/kg. This may be enough to support a conditional supercell threat given the favorable low-level SRH. While it is plausible that little to no severe may be realized, will maintain a cat 2/SLGT for an isolated tornado threat. Marginal potential for tornado/wind will probably persist into tonight across eastern portions of the Carolinas and VA. ..Grams/Gleason.. 03/23/2022 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Mar 23 12:49:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Mar 23 12:49:02 UTC 2022.

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Wed Mar 23 2022 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... Consistency between global models, regarding their depiction of the synoptic-scale pattern over the U.S., deteriorates rapidly/substantially with time, during the medium-range period. The divergence in solutions manifests initially during Day 5/Sunday -- initially over the West Coast with progression of an eastern Pacific low/trough. The divergence then increases/expands with time, to the point where by the end of day 7, the GFS depicts a mature surface cyclone entering western Ohio and a trailing cold front across the Mid South/central Gulf Coast region, while the ECMWF places the low -- though similarly mature -- over western Oklahoma. Given this unusually large spread in solutions, which is particularly highlighted in the increase evident in standard-deviation fields within GEFS output through time, during the medium-range period, no severe weather assessment is being offered beyond Day 5/Sunday at this time. In the Day 4-5 time frame, the upper pattern will likely remain characterized by maintenance of broad cyclonic flow over the eastern U.S., and upstream ridging over western and central portions of the country in advance of the aforementioned eastern Pacific trough. With surface high pressure prevailing as far south as the Gulf of Mexico, in the wake of prior cold frontal intrusion(s), severe convective potential east of the Rockies will likely remain muted to non-existent. Read more

Ongoing drought conditions led the Twin Falls Canal Company to delay the water delivery date. Water will be available on April 25, about a week and a half later than the usual date of April 15. The date was postponed to make sure that there was enough water in the reservoir system to begin the irrigation season. Farmers were asked to adjust their planting schedule. Water shares will be 5/8 rather than the usual ¾. The Upper Snake reservoir system was only at 50% capacity. KEZJ-FM (Twin Falls, Idaho), March 22, 2022

The Jackson County Board of Commissioners declared a drought emergency on March 23 due to low water levels, making this the third consecutive year for such an emergency declaration. A declaration lets the Oregon Water Resources Department take steps such as allowing the supplemental use of ground water and prioritizing water for human and livestock use. Jackson County reservoirs are at extremely low levels and have the capacity to hold enough water for multiple years, but some are nearly dry. As of last week, stream flows were just 29% of average, according to Oregon Water Resources Department. Medford Mail Tribune (Ore.), March 23, 2022

Governor Gavin Newsom’s administration is spending an additional $22.5 million in response to the immediate drought emergency after the driest January and February in more than 100 years of records in the Sierra Nevada. The $22.5 million allocation includes more funding for the Department of Water Resources, State Water Resources Control Board and the California Department of Food and Agriculture. More than a third of the money, $8.25 million, will be used to increase outreach efforts to educate Californians on water conservation measures and practices. Governor (Sacramento, Calif.), March 13, 2022