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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Thu Apr 07 2022 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic States, as well as across the Florida Peninsula. Damaging wind gusts, hail, and a couple of tornadoes may occur. ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic States... Steady height falls and increasingly strong cyclonically curved mid/high-level winds are expected over the region owing to a slow-eastward shift of the prominent Midwest/Great Lakes-centered upper trough. The region will continue to be influenced early today by last night's extensive storms across Georgia/South Carolina with lingering cloud cover/some precipitation as well as somewhat lesser moisture quality with northward extent. Regardless, steady additional low-level moistening will occur today into the coastal Mid-Atlantic where lower 60s F surface dewpoints should become more common this afternoon coincident with a northward-shifting warm front, and ahead of an upstream cold front and modestly deepening surface low. Surface-based thunderstorms could develop in vicinity of the Piedmont as early as midday/early afternoon, with a subsequent increase in storm coverage and intensity farther east, particularly across eastern North Carolina into southeast Virginia. A mixed convective mode including some semi-discrete supercells and bowing segments can be expected in the presence of strong effective shear. The potential for tornadoes and damaging winds should be regionally maximized in the immediate vicinity of the surface low and warm front across northeast North Carolina into southeast Virginia this afternoon. Isolated large hail will be possible as well owing to relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and the long/semi-straight hodographs coincident with the cloud-bearing layer. ...Florida Peninsula... A southeast-moving surface front extends from the northeast Gulf of Mexico across the northern Florida Peninsula, with scattered thunderstorms along and just ahead of it. A moist air mass with surface dewpoints in the lower 70s precedes the front, with early day visible satellite imagery showing relatively cloud-free skies over the central Peninsula to the south of the ongoing near-frontal convection. This will support MLCAPE up to around 1500-2000 J/kg. Effective shear of 40+ kt may support a few supercells and other well-organized bands/segments. Isolated large hail and locally damaging winds are most probable, but a tornado or two could also occur, particularly across the north-central Peninsula. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 04/07/2022 Read more

On April 6th and 7th, Big Bend National Park staff plan to initiate a 33-acre prescribed burn along the Rio Grande. Fire managers will be using prescribed fire as a natural resource habitat treatment to control exotic giant cane. The project area is located along the River Corridor from Daniel’s Ranch to the Rio Grande Village Nature Trail. During this time, visitors will encounter temporary closures at the Daniel's Ranch area, the Rio Grande Village Nature Trail, and the Rio Grande Village Boat

The Borrega fire started on March 30th and Texas A&M Forest Service received a request for assistance from Kleberg County at approximately 4:30 pm. The request for assistance came from Kleberg County for Texas A&M Forest Service resource support with the fire located 10 miles south of Kingsville and east of Premont. Unified command was established to assist with containment and suppression efforts.Voluntary evacuations were put in place in Kleberg County for the Ricardo and Riviera communities, as well as the King Ranch Gas Plant. The evacuations have been lifted as of April 3rd. Large Air Tankers assisted firefighters that conducted ground operations  to increase containment along the perimeter. Firing operations were successfully conducted on the east side of the fire to  slow the spread and increase containment. Multiple types of aircraft assisted including an air attack platform, SEATs and the National guard Blackhawk helicopters to do bucket work.  The fire was...

No watches are valid as of Wed Apr 6 13:55:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Apr 6 13:55:01 UTC 2022.

The Adrian Fire started on Friday, April 1st up on the mesa top southeast of Sweetwater, it has burned down into a canyon making it difficult for ground resources to put in mechanical fire line. Texas A&M Forest Service (TAMFS) had arrived on scene around 15:30 and has been working in unified command with local responders. Aviation resources were used extensively to slow forward progression and reduce heat on the flanks by dropping retardant via Large Air Tanker (LAT) and Very Large Air Tanker (VLAT). Additionally a type 1 helicopter was used to make water drops on hot spots along the flanks.The wildfire itself grew to an estimated 150 acres in size, however, in an attempted to strengthen and improve fire line as well as areas that equipment had difficulty getting to, several controlled burnout operations took place to remove unburnt fuel between the wildfire and the containment lines. This took place after dark and increased size to an estimated 700 acres.Because of high to moderate...

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Wed Apr 06 2022 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing swaths of damaging gusts, large hail, and several tornadoes are expected across the Southeast States and near the southern Appalachians this afternoon and evening. ...Southern Appalachians/Southeast States including AL/GA/SC... Prior outflow boundary and resultant moisture gradient via last evening's storms near the Georgia/Florida border vicinity will continue to decay and otherwise shift northward today effectively into/across Georgia as a weak warm front. Surface dewpoints rising through the upper 60s F and cloud breaks will result in moderate destabilization with upwards of 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE possible. Scattered thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely into early/mid-afternoon especially across central/eastern Alabama into Georgia, owing to pre-frontal confluence within the warm sector and/or near the imprint of the residual outflow boundary, with storms also increasing later in the afternoon farther northwest near the approaching upstream cold front. Deep-layer/low-level shear will tend to be regionally maximized across far southeast Alabama, the southern half of Georgia and the Florida Panhandle, and in closer proximity to the approaching cold front this afternoon and evening, where cyclonically curved mid/high-level winds will be strengthening and backing. These sub-regional areas will be more supportive of some initial supercells including tornado and severe hail risks. Parts of central/southern Georgia into southern South Carolina, given the influence of prior outflow/warm front and strong deep-layer/low-level winds, may be a preferred corridor of tornado potential as well as eventual upscale quasi-linear growth and heightened/semi-focused wind potential by late afternoon/early evening. ...Tennessee Valley/Lower Ohio Valley... A broad cluster of elevated storms are ongoing around sunrise near an east/southeastward-advancing cold front and to the north of a warm front across the Tennessee Valley. This complex of storms and related cloud debris should temper/delay downstream destabilization although low-level moisture will nonetheless increase into and across eastern Tennessee into eastern Kentucky through late afternoon and early evening. Somewhat stronger late-day destabilization is expected on the south/southwest flank of the early day complex of storms, within a relatively narrow corridor near the east/southeastward-moving cold front. This is expected across eastern Tennessee and other windward areas of the Appalachians. Presuming at least weak to locally moderate destabilization, forecast wind profiles are supportive of a mix of supercells and evolving bowing segments with the potential for hail/damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes across this region this afternoon and evening. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 04/06/2022 Read more

Tough water restrictions were enacted for the Weber Basin Water Conservancy District after early spring heat melted the snowpack from 80% of normal to just 65% of normal in a matter of days in late March. Water deliveries to secondary water systems for outdoor use were cut by 60%; culinary water deliveries were trimmed by 10%; and water for agricultural use was reduced by 40%. The activation of the secondary water system will be delayed by one month. In a normal spring, 220,000 acre-feet of runoff comes down the mountains to be stored, but this year, the amount is projected to be about 10,000 acre-feet. This is the third straight year of very low amounts of less than 10%. Reservoirs will not likely fill. The district is the wholesale water supplier for Weber, Davis, Morgan, Summit and parts of Box Elder County. KSL.com (Salt Lake City, Utah), April 4, 2022 Weber Basin Water Conservancy District water customers are being warned to expect another year of drought with reduced lawn watering. The activation of their secondary water system is being delayed. Instead of turning it on in April, it will be turned on in May. KSL News Radio 102.7FM (Salt Lake City, Utah), March 8, 2022

The snowpack in southwestern Idaho was two-thirds or less of normal. If spring does not bring ample moisture, reservoirs may not refill. Some farmers have already been warned that they may receive just one-third of the usual amount of water, or about 1.2 acre-feet. They have also been told that the irrigation season will be cut short. Instead of getting water from April 15 through Oct. 15, the water may end on Aug. 1. The warning allows farmers to quickly change their crop plans to plant something that can mature and produce a crop in a shorter growing season. Some land will also be left idle. KBOI-TV (Boise, Idaho), April 5, 2022

This fire is 100% contained at 2,591 acres. All resources have been released The human-caused fire started Saturday, March 27, approximately 20 miles north/northwest of Sasabe, within Presumido Peak, in Pima

The Bisbee Fire Department banned outdoor fires due to drought and dangerous fuel buildup in the the area around the historic town. All outdoor camping fires and trash burning are prohibited. Herald Review (Sierra Vista, Ariz.), April 5, 2022

Lee County commissioners declared a local state of emergency due to the dry weather and also enacted a 30-day burn ban. FOX4Now (Cape Coral, Fla.), April 5, 2022

Charlotte County commissioners unanimously approved a burn ban on April 5. The ban will remain in effect until further notice. FOX4Now (Cape Coral, Fla.), April 5, 2022

WW 0095 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 95 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE PIB TO 60 N MOB TO 50 WNW GZH TO 35 WNW SEM TO 25 SE TCL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0405 ..GLEASON..04/05/22 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 95 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-003-005-011-013-025-031-035-039-041-045-047-051-053-061- 067-069-081-085-087-091-097-099-101-105-109-113-129-131- 051540- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BALDWIN BARBOUR BULLOCK BUTLER CLARKE COFFEE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE DALLAS ELMORE ESCAMBIA GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON LEE LOWNDES MACON MARENGO MOBILE MONROE MONTGOMERY PERRY PIKE RUSSELL WASHINGTON WILCOX FLC005-033-059-063-091-113-131-133-051540- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 95 TORNADO AL FL MS CW 051150Z - 051900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 95 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 650 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Alabama Florida Panhandle Southeast Mississippi Coastal Waters * Effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 650 AM until 200 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...The potential for severe storms including damaging winds and tornadoes, along with some hail, is expected to further increase this morning across the region. This will be as increasingly moist and unstable air mass develops across the region in the presence of strong deep-layer/low-level winds. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles south southwest of Meridian MS to 25 miles northeast of Dothan AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 94... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0094 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 94 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E LCH TO 25 WSW MCB TO 20 ESE PIB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0405 ..GLEASON..04/05/22 ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...LIX...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 94 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC005-007-033-037-045-047-051-057-063-071-075-077-087-089-091- 093-095-097-099-101-103-105-109-117-121-125-051540- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASCENSION ASSUMPTION EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA IBERIA IBERVILLE JEFFERSON LAFOURCHE LIVINGSTON ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES POINTE COUPEE ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES ST. HELENA ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTISTST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN ST. MARY ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA TERREBONNE WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA MSC005-035-045-073-091-109-113-147-051540- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AMITE FORREST HANCOCK Read more

WW 94 TORNADO AR LA MS CW 050815Z - 051600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 94 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 315 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Far Southeast Arkansas Southern and Eastern Louisiana Central and Southern Mississippi Coastal Waters * Effective this Tuesday morning from 315 AM until 1100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A line of storms will move southeastward across the region through the early morning hours, with the possibility of additional and somewhat more isolated storms near/south of a warm front. Strengthening low-level winds and increasing moisture will support the potential for damaging winds and tornadoes aside from isolated large hail, especially near/north of the warm front. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 125 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles northwest of Alexandria LA to 25 miles south southeast of Pine Belt MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 93... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24030. ...Guyer Read more

MD 0405 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 94...95... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MS INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0405 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0845 AM CDT Tue Apr 05 2022 Areas affected...Portions of southern MS into southern/central AL and the western FL Panhandle Concerning...Tornado Watch 94...95... Valid 051345Z - 051515Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 94, 95 continues. SUMMARY...The greatest potential for tornadoes and damaging winds should focus across parts of southern Mississippi, southern/central Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle over the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...A small bowing line with embedded low-level circulations over parts of southern MS at 1345Z will move eastward across southern/central AL and the western FL Panhandle this morning. Surface-based storms appear most likely where at least mid 60s surface dewpoints are present. Given the linear nature of this ongoing convection and the presence of 45-55 kt of deep-layer shear, damaging winds will continue to be a threat in the short term. Other, more cellular convection is occurring ahead of the line across southern into central AL within a strong low-level warm advection regime. Ample low-level shear noted on recent VWPs from KMOB and other area radars suggest the threat for tornadoes both within the line and with any supercells ahead of it will also persist this morning as convection spreads eastward across southern AL and the western FL Panhandle. The potential for a strong tornado may exist over portions of southern AL and the far western FL Panhandle in the next 1-2 hours, where the best instability and strongest low-level and deep-layer shear currently overlap. ..Gleason.. 04/05/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 31228993 31608875 32308826 32708794 32648671 32458581 32168540 31388551 30948593 30628658 30548733 30568829 30638919 30998965 31228993 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Tue Apr 05 2022 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today across the Deep South, especially from southeast Mississippi and southern Alabama to the Carolinas. A swath of damaging wind gusts and several tornadoes are possible across the region, including the risk of a strong tornado. ...Gulf Coast/Deep South/Coastal Southeast... The late-evening squall line across the ArkLaTex region has largely lost integrity in the predawn hours but multiple zones of mostly quasi-linear convection exist early this morning across Louisiana into southern portions of Mississippi/Alabama. Elevated storms with instances of large hail have occurred to the north of a north/northeastward-shifting warm front, while some semi-discrete showers/thunderstorms have increased within the coastal warm sector where lower 70s F surface dewpoints are increasingly common across southern Louisiana/southern Mississippi into southwest Alabama as of 12z. Aided by an eastward-progressive low-amplitude trough/MCV, at least a modestly organized squall line will persist eastward today from southeast Mississippi across southern Alabama and possibly the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia, while additional semi-discrete supercells may occur ahead of it. Multi-layer clouds are prevalent early this morning within much of the warm sector, but an increasingly moist air mass (14.6 g/kg mean mixing ratio at KLIX/Slidell LA) and insolation will quickly erode boundary layer inhibition in a broad corridor across southern Alabama, northern Florida and the southern half of Georgia into South Carolina. Strong wind profiles (effective shear magnitudes 45-60 kt) will support a multi-faceted severe storms including both semi-discrete warm sector supercells as well as fast-moving bows/mesovortices embedded within the broader QLCS. The potential for tornadoes along with swaths of damaging winds are expected across the region. The severe wind/tornado threat will persist as storms continue toward the southeast Atlantic coast by evening. ...Northeast Oklahoma/Ozarks/Lower Missouri Valley... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected late this afternoon and early evening across the region near a southeastward-advancing front, with these storms increasing in coverage somewhat as they spread southeastward through the evening and early overnight. Buoyancy will be modest, especially with northern extent with initial development, but somewhat richer moisture and increased instability will exist across the Ozark Plateau and northeast Oklahoma vicinity. Wind profiles will be conducive for some severe storms and a few supercells, particularly into this evening. Severe hail, damaging winds, and/or a tornado risk are all possible on a relatively isolated basis. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 04/05/2022 Read more