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On Tuesday, March 29, 2022, a fire had started south of the city of Pampa in Gray County. Hoover Volunteer Fire Department had responded along with county motor graders and had put containment line around the fire. Fire activity became minimum over night. Resources were released from the scene Wednesday morning. On Thursday, March 31, high winds reignited embers and carried them over containment lines causing a spot fire south of the initial heel. Texas A&M Forest Service was requested for assistance. Heavy equipment is being engaged to create fire breaks around structures and burnout operations are taking place.Winds were erratic and there was slight rain with thunderstorms in the area. The humidity assisted fire crews in being able to hold the current containment lines and widen out some old ones. The firefighters have patrolled and mopped up the areas of heat around the perimeter and feel comfortable calling it 100% contained as of April 1st. The fire has been turned over to local...

No watches are valid as of Sun Apr 3 13:40:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Apr 3 13:40:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Sun Apr 03 2022 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and thunderstorm gusts are expected across parts of southwest Oklahoma into western Texas this afternoon and evening. A couple of strong to marginally severe storms are also possible across the southern Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern has transitioned temporarily to nearly zonal across the CONUS, perturbed my a series of northern-stream shortwave troughs across the northern tier of states that are not expected to influence severe potential directly this period. A mostly separate, positively tilted trough -- now located from northern parts of NV/CA across nearby parts of the Pacific -- will move east-southeastward through the period. By 12Z tomorrow, this trough should be strengthening, while located from central CO across southern AZ and north-central Baja. As that occurs, a weak, preceding perturbation -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery over northern Baja/southern CA -- will move east-northeastward across AZ today and NM overnight, likely weakening further as the upstream trough amplifies. At 11Z, surface analysis showed an area of low pressure from near DUJ southeastward across the Delmarva Peninsula to the Atlantic east of Hampton Roads, along an occluded front. A cold front extended from the offshore part of the low-pressure area southwestward across south-central FL. The FL portion of the boundary should move slowly southward through the period while becoming more diffuse. The front will become quasistationary westward over the central/north-central Gulf. The western part was drawn as a warm front across south TX, and will move northward and become diffuse today across south to central TX. As limited northward moisture return occurs through that region, a dryline will develop across southwest/west-central TX, to near the OK/TX Panhandle border this afternoon. Farther north, a cold front (related to a northern-stream mid/upper perturbation) was drawn over south-central SD, western NE, to northeastern CO. This front will move southward/southeastward across the central Plains and southern High Plains through the period, reaching northeastern KS, northwestern OK, and the southern TX Panhandle by 00Z. The cold front will overtake the northern part of the dryline overnight, then by 12Z, extend from a low in the MSN/RFD region across south-central MO, south-central OK, and the Permian Basin region of west TX. ...Southern Plains... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are possible near the dryline from late afternoon into early evening, moving generally eastward with sporadic damaging gusts and large hail possible. Despite locally strong heating, the air mass should remain devoid of deep convection through most of the afternoon, given capping related to a basal EML inversion. However, continued heating and lift near the dryline, along with increasing late-afternoon/early-evening moisture east of the dryline, and the eastern fringe of large-scale ascent ahead of the CA perturbation, will support high-based thunderstorm development late this afternoon into evening. Surface dew points from the mid 40s to mid 50s F will enable a north-south corridor of MLCAPE in the 500-1000 J/kg range. Near-surface winds will back with time into the evening, enlarging hodographs and increasing effective-shear magnitudes to near 50 kt. This will enable any relatively discrete convection to become supercellular with likely low-precip (LP) structure, into the twilight hour. Isolated large hail will be possible, despite the lack of greater inflow-layer moisture. Well-mixed subcloud layers also will foster locally severe downdraft gusts from loosely organized clusters that can form. Convection may persist eastward across the outlook area into the mid/late evening before a stabilizing boundary layer reduces severe-wind potential. Additional thunderstorms may develop overnight atop outflow from evening activity, but with minimal severe potential (hail, if at all). ...South FL... Widely scattered thunderstorms are possible today, with the main concerns being damaging gusts near severe limits and isolated, marginally severe hail. An outflow boundary near the Keys, from previous day's activity, is expected to drift northward and become diffuse into this afternoon, amidst favorable moisture and diurnally weakening MLCINH. Generally decreasing cloud cover with time this morning will allow sufficient heating to support MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg, in tandem with surface dew points commonly in the upper 60s to low 70s F. Despite a lack of substantial mid/upper-level ascent, thunderstorm development, both in clusters and as discrete cells, should form along and south of the front. Development should be concentrated especially where lift maximizes along sea-breeze and differential-heating boundaries, as well as outflow boundaries produced from early convective processes. Though weak low-level flow will keep hodographs small and substantially limit boundary-layer shear, strong mid/upper westerlies beneath the subtropical jet will foster favorable cloud-layer shear, and effective shear magnitudes around 35-45 kt (locally higher). ..Edwards/Broyles.. 04/03/2022 Read more

The Das Goat Fire began on March 25, 2022 burning in grass and timber. Local fire departments requested assistance from Texas A&M Forest Service near 5:00 pm on March 25 for the Das Goat Fire. The fire is burning approximately 4 mules south, southeast of Mico, Texas. Initial reports of structures threatened expanded into voluntary, then mandatory evacuations for residents in the Medina Lake area near County Road 271 towards County Roads 2615, 2651 and 2652.  All evacuations have been lifted and access to the community of High Mountain Ranch is for residents only. County Road 271 was previously closed during active fire activity. County Roads 2615 and 271 are now open and accessible as of March 29,2022.Use the following the link to sign up for Emergency Notifications from Medina County agencies: http://r.i-info.com/rc/arc.State resources are working in unified command with County Judge Schuchart, Fire Chief Cooke and Chief Deputy Rodriguez of Medina County. The fire is officially...

The Red Mud fire started on Friday, April 1st, 2022 at approximately 2:40 pm in Crosby County just east of White River. The fire is burning in mostly grass but is being wind driven towards structures. Bull Dozers engaged on east flank to put in containment lines due to that work, forward progression has stopped. Three Single Engine Air Tankers (SEATs) worked the head of the fire to support ground resources. Structure protection was put in pplace to protect values at risk.  The Texas A&M Forest Service responded and was in unified command with the local fire department.  The fire is officially 100% contained as of April 2, 2022 and turned over to locals. Federal and state resources have been released. Pending any significant change in fire activity this will be the last update for this

Texas A&M Forest Service (TAMFS) responded to a request for assistance in Roberts County from Canadian FD for a new start off Highway 60 between Miami and Canadian. During initial attack, the fire fire was very active with long range spotting and rapid rates of spread.  The fire moved northeast crossing HWY 83 and 33, but stayed south of the town Canadian.Heavy equipment engaged immediately to construct containment line focusing on the right flank in preparation for the wind shift. Currently, forward progression of the fire has stopped and resources will continue to focus on mop up and

 The Ramsey Fire Started the afternoon of March 20th in Brown County just West of the town of Blanket, Resources from Texas A&M Forest Service are working in unified command with local responders. Fire activity on the 20th was extreme due to high winds, but today is moderate due to precipitation that is occurring. Voluntary evacuations took place in the town of May, no reported structure loss at this

As of March 31st, 2022, pending any significant changes in the activity of the fire, Texas A&M Forest Service will no longer be updating information on this incident. The Crittenberg Complex Fire has been turned over to local fire resources. Texas A&M Forest Service  received a request for assistance in Coryell County on the Crittenburg Complex on March 27. The complex consists of 3 wildfires that have burned together and is actively burning in grass, brush and cedar fuel types.Ground resources engaged in constructing containment lines to stop forward progression during initial attack and worked in cooperation with Fort Hood fire response. Aviation resources made several beneficial drops on the fire to help slow forward progression. Resources on the fire during the first operational period include the Texas A&M Forest Service task force from McGregor with 3 dozers, one Texas Intrastate Fire Mutual Aid System (TIFMAS) strike team with 5 engines, 3 large air tankers, 6 single engine...

No watches are valid as of Sat Apr 2 14:40:02 UTC 2022.

MD 0386 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 0386 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0938 AM CDT Sat Apr 02 2022 Areas affected...Parts of the central and northern Florida Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 021438Z - 021745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may begin initiating by 1-2 PM EDT, then pose a risk to produce severe hail and strong surface gusts through mid to late afternoon. Trends are being monitored for the possibility that this could require a severe weather watch. DISCUSSION...Convection-allowing model output is rather varied concerning potential convective evolution late this morning into mid afternoon, beneath generally zonal mid/upper flow across much of the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast. Low-amplitude shortwaves within one belt of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific remain out of phase with the branch of mid-level westerlies to its north. However, models do suggest that larger-scale mid-level flow may trend more broadly cyclonic through this afternoon, as a fairly vigorous short wave trough progresses east-southeast of the lower Mississippi Valley. Colder mid-level air (including temperatures of roughly +5 to -15C in the 700-500 mb layer) is in the process of spreading across the northern half of the Florida Peninsula. Where surface dew points are now near 70F, this is expected to contribute to moderately large mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 2000+ J/kg within the next few hours. Perhaps aided by forcing for ascent associated with low-level warm advection, this might support increasing thunderstorm development as early as 17-18Z. Low-level wind fields are weak, but deep-layer shear beneath a strong sub-tropical jet is strong, and could contribute to the evolution of supercell structures. Some of this activity may pose a risk for severe hail and strong wind gusts as storms intensify through mid to late afternoon. ..Kerr/Grams.. 04/02/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 29738173 29408030 27577993 27648189 28158300 28888223 29738173 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Sat Apr 02 2022 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm gusts and large hail are expected across mainly central parts of the Florida Peninsula today. ...Synopsis... A progressive, somewhat zonal mid/upper-level pattern has taken shape over the CONUS, with the most substantial perturbation being a trough now located from northwestern ON southward across IA/MO to the Arklatex region. A basal shortwave trough -- currently over western AR and east TX -- will outpace the remainder of the synoptic trough as it crosses the Tennessee Valley today. By 00Z, the shortwave trough should reach GA and the western Carolinas, possibly phasing with a convectively induced vorticity field to its south over the northeastern Gulf or northern FL. These features should move offshore to the Atlantic overnight, while the northern part of the synoptic trough moves slower across the Great Lakes and vicinity. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a quasistationary front across central FL, to the outer shelf waters of LA and across deep south TX. A diffuse outflow boundary was drawn just to its south across central FL. These boundaries should blend into a single baroclinic zone across the peninsula through the remainder of the morning, before being modified by convection as discussed below. ...FL... Multiple rounds of strong-severe thunderstorms are expected over various parts of the outlook area today. Relatively discrete cells and cluster-embedded supercells will pose a threat for localized damaging downbursts and severe hail, while larger clusters will be a better-organized wind threat. Hail potential may extend somewhat north of the wind threat, with elevated cells (perhaps including a left-moving supercell or two) possible over parts of northern FL and the coastal-bend region. Tornado potential is marginal and conditional area-wide, given the generally weak low-level flow and small hodographs expected. However, supercell/boundary interactions may cause a tornado threat briefly on a local scale, especially near the front and sea breeze where boundary-layer vorticity can be maximized. An increasingly organized MCS is expected to move off the Gulf this afternoon and expand/intensify near the front, as it encounters a moist, diurnally destabilized boundary layer over the peninsula. The convection that should evolve into the MCS has developed and grown in coverage over the north-central/northeastern Gulf during the past few hours, along and north of the front. Also, strong to severe thunderstorms may form along the East Coast sea-breeze boundary (potentially merging with the MCS on the north end), and along outflow boundaries from the earliest convection. The preconvective environment should be characterized by MLCAPE growing into the 1500-2500 J/kg range, supported by temperatures in the 80s F, dew points in the 70s, and mean mixing ratios to near 15 g/kg. Though winds will be modest and mostly veered to southwesterly near the surface, strong mid/upper winds will provide ample cloud-layer shear, and effective-shear magnitudes of 35-45 kt are possible over most of the area. The severe threat should diminish from late afternoon into evening as the main cluster moves seaward to the Atlantic, and remaining surface boundaries become bracketed by outflow air and a nocturnally stabilizing preconvective boundary layer. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 04/02/2022 Read more

Feedlot owners put a record number of cattle on feed in February as producers faced dry conditions and processors were working steadily. The number of cattle in large feedlots was nearly 12.2 million, 1.4% higher than one year ago and the highest March 1 inventory since USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service began the reporting series in 1996. Some of the factors involved in the high placements are the dry conditions in the Southern and Central Plains where cattle have been moved into feedlots in January and February and possibly cattle from up north where feed resources are tight. Capital Press (Salem, Ore.), March 29, 2022

Dry conditions in 2021 allowed the Missouri River in Omaha to set a record for its lowest crest on modern record on Aug. 7, according to the National Weather Service and U.S. Geological Survey. Low water levels in 2021 prompted the Corps of Engineers to operate for drought conditions in July 2021 by reducing flows during navigation season and allowing minimal winter releases. Omaha World-Herald (Neb.), March 28, 2022 September precipitation and runoff were below average in the Missouri River Basin above Sioux City, Iowa. Runoff was 0.8 million acre-feet, 67% of the long-term average. “Releases from Gavins Point Dam will continue to be set to maintain navigation support at an intermediate service level,” according to the chief of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ Missouri River Basin Water Management Division. The navigation flow support season ends on Dec. 1 at the mouth of the Missouri River. The 2021 calendar year runoff forecast for the upper Basin, which was updated on Oct. 1, is 14.8 MAF, 57% of average. Average annual runoff for the upper Basin is 25.8 MAF. If the forecast verifies, this runoff amount would be the 10th lowest runoff in 123 years of record-keeping. Nebraska City News-Press (Neb.), Oct 15, 2021 The July runoff above the Fort Peck Dam in Montana was the lowest on record, due to drought and heat, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Navigation support will be maintained at an intermediate service level of 1,500 cubic feet per second below full-service levels through the end of the normal 8-month navigation flow support season. WOWT-TV NBC 6 Omaha (Neb.), Aug 5, 2021 The Missouri River Water Management Division will reduce navigation flow support for the second half of the navigation flow support season. The service level to support navigation will be lowered 1,500 cubic feet per second from full-service levels. NewsDakota (Valley City, N.D.), July 2, 2021

The West Nueces Fire began on March 27, 2022 in Kinney County. Local fire departments requested assistance from Texas A&M Forest Service (TAMFS) late afternoon as the fire was actively burning in grass and juniper shrub. TAMFS is working in unified command with Kinney County officials. The fire is burning approximately 19 miles northeast of Brackettville, Texas. While the morning of March 28 was cloudy and saw decent relative humidity recoveries, high winds and fuel availability led to increased fire behavior again in the afternoon. Fire managers are using indirect containment tactics due to the remoteness and inaccessibility of where the fire is burning. Priorities include point protection and preparedness for the ranch structures that could be impacted by fire spread. Structures on both the west and eastern flanks have been identified and are being prepared for potential fire impact. Crews note that the fire is burning into natural barriers, such as rocky terrain with sparse fuels,...

Texas A&M Forest Service received a request for assistance in La Salle County on the Los Angeles Fire, approximately about 17 miles east of Cotulla, Texas, in the afternoon of March 30, 2022. The fire was burning actively in grass and shrub fuels. Texas A&M Forest Service engine, heavy equipment and air resources initially responded to aid in the suppression efforts and work in unified command with local authorities. The fire has been held along Highway 97 west of Fowlerton.  As of March 31st, 2022, pending any significant changes in the activity of the fire, Texas A&M Forest Service will no longer be updating information on this incident. The Los Angeles Fire has been turned over to local fire resources.  Pending any significant change in fire activity this will be the last update for this

Multiple wildfires burning southwest of Eastland, Texas have been combined for management purposes into the Eastland Complex. This includes the Walling, Wheat Field, Kidd, Oak Mott, Blowing Basin, Mangum, and Cedar Mountain Fires. The Walling Fire started on March 16th, the Wheat Field, Kidd, and Oak Mott Fires on March 17th, and Blowing Basin, Mangum, Cedar Mountain Fires started on March 20th. Texas A&M Forest Service resources including heavy equipment, fire engines, overhead, and Texas Intrastate Fire Mutual Aid System (TIFMAS) strike teams are responding. The fires are actively burning in thick brush and grass fields. Crews were initially focused on operations related to life safety and structure protection, and containment line creation where possible.  Weather on the day of ignitions included highs that were expected to reach the mid-80's, minimum relative humidity between 12 and 15 percent with strong and gusty winds from the southwest. A wind shift blew through the region...

The Vib Fire started mid afternoon, March 30th, 2022 on private property, burning in grass and brush. The fire is located on King Ranch property in Brooks County outside of the town of Encino, Texas. No evacuations were called for during initial attack though structure protection was ongoing throughout the suppression efforts. One unoccupied outbuilding was destroyed. Firefighters worked well into the night to hold the perimeter and protect threatened structures.  Work continued on March 31, 2022 and as of 4 pm the only heat pockets found are interior according to aircraft surveying the fire area. The fire is officially 100% contained and turned over to locals. Federal and state resources have been released as of 6pm.  Pending any significant change in fire activity this will be the last update for this

The Spring 2022 prescribed fire season is upon us. Fire managers will be looking for windows of opportunity to conduct broadcast burns (applying fire across the forest floor) through the month of April and maybe into May, depending on what conditions will allow. Crews are planning to work on the following projects this season: Greenbase Project:  Just north of the City Williams; 3500 acres; Smoke likely noticeable around Williams, Highway 64, and Interstate 40.Reed Project: Just south and northeast of Tusayan; 3300 acres; Overnight smoke generally settles around Forest Road 302, Tusayan, and south toward Red Butte.Blue Stem Project: Remote corner of Tusayan District 15-20 miles east northeast of State Route 64 and Red Butte; Total of approx. 6000 acres; Limited smoke on local roads; minimal impacts to populated areas. Fire plays a critical role in maintaining a healthy forest and reducing risks of uncharacteristic wildfires that threaten public health and safety.  A healthy forest...

No watches are valid as of Fri Apr 1 12:54:02 UTC 2022.