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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Fri Apr 01 2022 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the Florida Peninsula and southern High Plains today. ...Synopsis... A progressive mid/upper-level pattern is forecast through the period. A high-amplitude trough -- currently located from the Great lakes to the southern Appalachians -- will deamplify slightly as it moves eastward over the Mid-Atlantic to New England by 00Z. An embedded/500-mb low should develop this evening over ME before the trough moves across adjoining Atlantic waters and the Canadian Maritimes. Meanwhile, a series of vorticity maxima characterize a synoptic trough that is apparent in moisture-channel imagery, from a low near the SK/MB border southward across the northern High Plains and central/southern Rockies. The trough should move eastward to the Dakotas, central NE, west-central KS, and the southern High Plains by 00Z, with a strong/basal perturbation over the TX Panhandle and South Plains. By 12Z tomorrow, the larger trough should extend from northwestern ON across MN, IA, and MO, through the basal perturbation over the Arklatex and east TX. The 11Z surface analysis showed a cold front across north-central FL to the central Gulf. This boundary will move slowly southward though much of the day before stalling across central FL, under parallel flow aloft. A low was analyzed over east-central CO, and is forecast to move east-northeastward across the central Plains to southern IA or northernmost MO by 12Z, with a weak cold front trailing over OK and northwest TX. ...FL... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to move eastward across the central peninsula throughout the day, mainly focused on the warmer parts of the frontal zone this morning, and later today on the eastern sea breeze. Isolated, marginally severe hail/gusts can occur from the most intense cells, and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out this morning, before hodographs shrink from veering/weakening with time of near-surface winds. Effective-shear magnitudes will remain in the 35-50-kt range this morning before gradually weakening, with the possible exception of localized favorable shear near the afternoon sea breeze. Surface dew points in the upper 60s to mid 70s F, combined with intermittent/fragmented insolation under broken cloud cover, will contribute to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, locally/briefly near 2000 J/kg. Coverage of the best-organized convection is in question, given expected slow weakening of frontal lift (related partly to the veering to its south), and lack of substantial mid/upper support. Still, isolated supercells or bowing segments may yield a localized severe threat. ...Southern Plains... Scattered, high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over northeastern NM and parts of the TX Panhandle, moving east-southeastward and expanding laterally in coverage toward parts of western OK and northwest TX this evening. Isolated severe gusts will be the main concern, with hail being limited by lack of greater inflow-layer moisture. Some potential exists for a mesobeta-scale concentration of severe gusts to develop within the broader outlook area. Threat probabilities may need to be upgraded in a succeeding outlook, if warranted based on mesoscale trends and 12Z and later guidance. The underlying boundary layer will be unusually dry for a southern High Plains severe scenario, with surface dew points only in the 20s and 30s F. However, given the strong cooling aloft expected to overlap a diurnally heated/well-mixed boundary layer, surface-based effective-inflow parcels are expected into early evening, fostering MLCAPE in the 100-500 J/kg range. The gust potential should diminish with eastward extent this evening as the foregoing boundary layer diabatically stabilizes/cools fairly quickly, still with modest moisture. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 04/01/2022 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Apr 1 12:54:02 UTC 2022.

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 AM CDT Fri Apr 01 2022 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z CORRECTED FOR DAY-7 AND 8 LABELS ...DISCUSSION... A complex pattern is evident during the Day 4-8 period with several mid/upper shortwave troughs, surface lows and cold fronts anticipated to impact severe potential across parts of Texas into the southeastern U.S. through Day 6/Wed. ...Day 4/Monday - Central/Eastern TX into Western LA... A mid/upper trough is forecast to shift east from the southwestern U.S./northern Mexico to OK/TX. A stalled front is forecast to extend from northwest TX to the Lower OH Valley early Monday. Southerly low-level flow will transport 60s F dewpoints northward across central/east TX and the lower MS Valley/central Gulf Coast. As the western trough ejects eastward, a weak surface low is forecast to develop over TX and shift east toward AR/LA. While uncertainty exists in the northward extent of better moisture transport, a corridor of moderate instability amid 40+ kt effective shear will exist from central TX into western LA. Strong to severe thunderstorms, including supercells, will be possible from central/eastern TX into western LA. All severe hazards will be possible. ...Day 5/Tuesday - Lower MS Valley/Central Gulf Coast Vicinity... The positive-tilt mid/upper trough extending from the Ozark Plateau into TX will shift east/northeast across the TN Valley to the Mid-Atlantic. A strong warm advection regime will exist across the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast states as enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow overspreads the region. There is some uncertainty in how much destabilization will occur as clouds and widespread rainfall could envelop much of the area. However, ensemble guidance indicates at least pockets of modest destabilization within a strongly sheared environment, as a weak surface low lifts northeast from AR/LA to the central Appalachians through the evening hours. This should support at least isolated severe potential. ...Day 6/Wednesday - TN Valley/southern Appalachians Vicinity... A deep upper low and associated intense upper trough over the Plains/Upper Midwest will develop eastward across much of the central U.S. A strong cold front is forecast to advance east/southeast across the southern and central U.S. Ensemble guidance indicates adequate moisture will reside ahead of the front across the TN Valley into the southern Appalachians with temperatures warming into the mid 70s to low 80s. Strong deep-layer shear, mainly parallel to the surface boundary will support potential QLCS development and an attendant damaging wind threat across portions of the region. ...Days 7-8/Thursday-Friday... The central U.S. mid/upper trough will move offshore during the end of the period. Some severe potential could develop across parts of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic, but guidance varies considerably in timing of both surface and upper level features, resulting in low confidence. Read more

The Mendocino City Community Services District Board of Directors declared a Stage 4 Drought effective immediately, which requires a 40% reduction in water use. The Mendocino Beacon (Calif.), March 31, 2022

After the first three months of 2022 were the driest on record in California, the water supply for all Central Valley Project municipal and industrial water service contractors has been reduced to Public Health and Safety effective April 1. Bureau of Reclamation (Washington, D.C.), April 1, 2022 Initial water allocations for 2022 for contractors of the Central Valley Project indicated that most irrigation districts in the Sacramento and San Joaquin valleys should expect to get no water this year. The weather has been dry since the start of the year. In the first two weeks of February, 1.2 million acre-feet of inflow for Shasta, Folsom and Oroville were lost. This year could even turn out to be worse than 2021. Most cities will get a 25% allocation, while some will receive just enough to cover “public health and safety needs,” which means 55 gallons per person daily. Wildlife refuges should receive a 75% allocation. In January, State Water Project customers learned that they would receive a 15% allocation. The Sacramento Bee (Calif.), Feb 23, 2022

Solvang’s Stage Two Drought Resolution remains in effect until the city council decides to lift it. In the meantime, the drought continues to be serious, and water conservation is needed. Noozhawk.com (Santa Barbara, Calif.), Oct 26, 2021 Solvang City Council members declared a Stage 2 drought on Aug. 23, and mandatory water restrictions will take effect after the September meter reading. Those who do not conserve will be fined. A Stage 1 drought emergency began in April, but rather than falling, water use rose 15% in May, 7% in June and 10% in July. As water supplies dropped, water use increased 22%. As of Aug. 23, Cachuma Lake was below 52% capacity. Lompoc Record (Calif.), Sept 22, 2021

Oregon Gov. Kate Brown signed an executive order on March 21 declaring a drought emergency for three counties—Jefferson, Crook and Morrow. Low snowpack, low reservoir levels and low streamflow were anticipated to cause natural and economic disasters in those counties. The Madras Pioneer (Ore.), March 30, 2022

The pastor of a rural church held a “Pray for Rain” worship service as drought persists for a third year. People attended from as far away as Wyoming. Some ranchers are considering selling off their herds if they don't have enough grass for their cattle this spring and summer. Hay stockpiles are dwindling, and some ranchers anticipate just half of normal grass production this year. “Pray for Rain. Plan For Drought,” is a special project by the South Dakota Grassland Coalition and its partners. The purpose of the project is to provide resources to help mitigate the impacts of long-term drought conditions. South Dakota Public Broadcasting (Vermillion, S.D.), March 31, 2022

After a very dry winter, Arizona's wildflower season is below average. Although some rain fell late in the winter, it arrived after the germination period, leaving wildflowers rather scarce this spring. Cronkite News (Ariz.), March 31, 2022

As of March 30th, pending any significant changes in the activity of the fire, Texas A&M Forest Service will no longer be updating information on this incident. The Bosque Fire has been turned over to local fire resources.    Texas A&M Forest Service received a request for assistance in Bosque County on the Bosque River Fire, approximately 3 miles east of Iredel, Texas, on the evening on March 27, 2022. The fire was burning actively in grass and shrub fuels. During initial attack, ground resources engaged in constructing containment lines to stop forward progression. State resources are working in cooperation with local fire

This fire will no longer be updated. Firefighters are currently engaged in wildfire suppression in Jeff Davis County, located approximately 8.5 miles south of Kent. The Nunn Fire started on March 28, 2022 at approximately 3:00 pm in mountainous terrain. Texas A&M Forest Service (TAMFS) is in unified command with Fort Davis, Cherry Creek, and DMR volunteer fire departments. The fire is burning in grass and brushy fuels with high potential for growth. In addition to TAMFS and local resources, a strike team of Texas Intrastate Fire Mutual Aid System (TIFMAS) engines is present to assist. Aviation resources have been requested for

The City of Nampa is establishing a task force to plan and educate residents on best practices for water conservation since the water supply is expected to be below normal and drought is expected to persist. The current snowpack in the Boise River basin is 64% of normal. Boise State Public Radio (Idaho), March 31, 2022

Sanibel Fire & Rescue District banned all open burning on the island effective immediately due to the extremely dry conditions. The drought index in Lee County was above 650. Santiva Chronicle (Fla.), March 31, 2022

Water restrictions have affected some landscaping businesses in the Salt Lake City area as some customers reduced or stopped using lawn care services. People have also begun using soil moisture manager products to keep water in the soil longer. KSL Newsradio 102.7FM 1160AM (Salt Lake City, Utah), March 28, 2022

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Mar 31 14:34:02 UTC 2022.

WW 0085 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 85 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AAF TO 5 E TLH TO 15 NE MGR TO 35 W VDI TO 40 NNW VDI. ..KERR..03/31/22 ATTN...WFO...TAE...JAX...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 85 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC037-047-065-067-079-121-123-129-311540- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FRANKLIN HAMILTON JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE MADISON SUWANNEE TAYLOR WAKULLA GAC001-003-005-019-027-065-069-075-101-107-161-173-185-209-271- 279-283-299-309-311540- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPLING ATKINSON BACON BERRIEN BROOKS CLINCH COFFEE COOK ECHOLS EMANUEL JEFF DAVIS LANIER LOWNDES MONTGOMERY TELFAIR TOOMBS TREUTLEN WARE WHEELER Read more

WW 85 TORNADO FL GA CW 311035Z - 311800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 85 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 635 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Florida Panhandle, Florida Big Bend area and northwestern Florida Southern Georgia Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday morning and afternoon from 635 AM until 200 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...A band of strong-severe thunderstorms, with occasional, embedded supercells, bows and mesovortices, will continue to pose a threat of tornadoes and damaging winds this morning. Activity should move into a destabilizing air mass later this morning across southern Georgia and the coastal bend. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles north of Apalachicola FL to 80 miles northeast of Valdosta GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...This tornado watch replaces tornado watch number 84. Watch number 84 will not be in effect after 635 AM EDT. AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Edwards Read more

 Texas A&M Forest Service (TAMFS) received a request for assistance on a large wildfire in Throckmorton County close the the Haskell County line. The Doe fire is showing a moderate rate of spread being wind driven with an initial size up estimating 200 acres. TAMFS is working in unified command with local responders on suppression efforts and constructing line around the fire, additionally air attack was requested for air support and large air tankers (LAT) have been used to make retardant drops along active head of the fire slowing the rate of spread. Dry conditions and high winds are contributing to the fire

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Damaging thunderstorm gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the Southeast into the Hudson Valley. ...Synopsis... A progressive mid/upper-level pattern features broadly cyclonic flow over most of the CONUS, except for a narrow zone of ridging now located from the Four Corners region to central Canada. An upstream trough will move across the northern High Plains and central/ southern Rockies. Its field of UVV/cooling aloft will support isolated thunder potential in the four Corners region, in concert with marginal low/middle-level moisture. Downstream, a complex synoptic trough extends from northern ON across the lower Missouri Valley and southern Plains States. One previously intense shortwave trough is located over portions of the Lake Michigan region, and will continue to weaken as it ejects northeastward today. Another perturbation is evident in moisture- channel imagery over eastern KS, western OK and the TX Panhandle. This feature will pivot eastward across the Mid-South by 00Z, then weaken and eject to the inland Mid-Atlantic by 12Z tomorrow. Strong southwest flow aloft (e.g., a 120-140-kt 250-mb jet, and 90-105 kt at 500 mb) will extend from the Gulf Coast States to the Carolinas today, ahead of the second shortwave trough. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a deep (978 mb), occluded surface low near HTL, which will eject northeastward across ON and northern QC through the period. The associated surface cold front was drawn across western OH, eastern parts of KY/TN, northern AL, and extreme southeastern LA. This front should sweep eastward/ southeastward to central portions of NY/PA/VA by 00Z, extending southwestward across the FL Panhandle to the central Gulf. By 12Z, the front should extend from portions of ME, near Cape Cod, to near the NC Outer Banks, and across northern FL. ...Southeastern CONUS to Hudson Valley region... The earliest threat area is ongoing -- across portions of the FL Panhandle, southern GA and northwestern FL. See SPC tornado watch 85 and related mesoscale discussions for details on the near-term threats with this activity. A broad plume of low-level theta-e advection will combine with muted diurnal heating to at least marginally destabilize the boundary layer today, in a broad swath from the Carolinas into the northern Mid-Atlantic. This will support additional bands of scattered to numerous showers, and widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms, expected to develop from the southern Piedmont to the central Appalachians and move quickly northeastward across the outlook area today. A mixed mode of QLCS (bows, LEWPs and embedded mesovortices) and a few supercells are possible, supporting a threat for damaging gusts (a few severe at 50+ kt intensity) and a few tornadoes. With weakly unstable lapse rates, preconvective dewpoints reaching the mid 50s north to mid 50s south will be counterbalanced by somewhat colder air aloft in the mid-Atlantic, warmer over the Carolinas to Delmarva. The 12Z IAD sounding sampled a likely narrow ribbon of a remnant of the southern Plains EML, within a broader area of weak 600-800-mb lapse rates. Peak warm-sector MLCAPE should reach the 100-500 J/kg range over the Mid-Atlantic and 500-1000 J/kg over the Carolinas, and 1000-1500 J/kg in southeastern GA and northern FL. As noted above, the strongest mid/upper winds will be over the middle parts of the outlook area today, while a 60-75-kt LLJ takes shape from the Carolinas into the eastern Mid-Atlantic. This will foster effective-shear magnitudes peaking around 60-75 kt in the NC/VA/MD region, decreasing but still strong northward and southward. Meanwhile, lengthy hodographs will support effective SRH in the 200-400 J/kg range over much of the corridor. Strongest forcing for ascent should be ahead of the front in the northern parts of the area where buoyancy is weakest, in a strong-shear/ low-CAPE scenario. Uncertainty remains as to coverage of severe gusts reaching the surface given some constraints on low-level lapse rates, but even subsevere winds will be capable of minor structural damage and trees down. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 03/31/2022 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Damaging thunderstorm gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the Southeast into the Hudson Valley. ...Synopsis... A progressive mid/upper-level pattern features broadly cyclonic flow over most of the CONUS, except for a narrow zone of ridging now located from the Four Corners region to central Canada. An upstream trough will move across the northern High Plains and central/ southern Rockies. Its field of UVV/cooling aloft will support isolated thunder potential in the four Corners region, in concert with marginal low/middle-level moisture. Downstream, a complex synoptic trough extends from northern ON across the lower Missouri Valley and southern Plains States. One previously intense shortwave trough is located over portions of the Lake Michigan region, and will continue to weaken as it ejects northeastward today. Another perturbation is evident in moisture- channel imagery over eastern KS, western OK and the TX Panhandle. This feature will pivot eastward across the Mid-South by 00Z, then weaken and eject to the inland Mid-Atlantic by 12Z tomorrow. Strong southwest flow aloft (e.g., a 120-140-kt 250-mb jet, and 90-105 kt at 500 mb) will extend from the Gulf Coast States to the Carolinas today, ahead of the second shortwave trough. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a deep (978 mb), occluded surface low near HTL, which will eject northeastward across ON and northern QC through the period. The associated surface cold front was drawn across western OH, eastern parts of KY/TN, northern AL, and extreme southeastern LA. This front should sweep eastward/ southeastward to central portions of NY/PA/VA by 00Z, extending southwestward across the FL Panhandle to the central Gulf. By 12Z, the front should extend from portions of ME, near Cape Cod, to near the NC Outer Banks, and across northern FL. ...Southeastern CONUS to Hudson Valley region... The earliest threat area is ongoing -- across portions of the FL Panhandle, southern GA and northwestern FL. See SPC tornado watch 85 and related mesoscale discussions for details on the near-term threats with this activity. A broad plume of low-level theta-e advection will combine with muted diurnal heating to at least marginally destabilize the boundary layer today, in a broad swath from the Carolinas into the northern Mid-Atlantic. This will support additional bands of scattered to numerous showers, and widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms, expected to develop from the southern Piedmont to the central Appalachians and move quickly northeastward across the outlook area today. A mixed mode of QLCS (bows, LEWPs and embedded mesovortices) and a few supercells are possible, supporting a threat for damaging gusts (a few severe at 50+ kt intensity) and a few tornadoes. With weakly unstable lapse rates, preconvective dewpoints reaching the mid 50s north to mid 50s south will be counterbalanced by somewhat colder air aloft in the mid-Atlantic, warmer over the Carolinas to Delmarva. The 12Z IAD sounding sampled a likely narrow ribbon of a remnant of the southern Plains EML, within a broader area of weak 600-800-mb lapse rates. Peak warm-sector MLCAPE should reach the 100-500 J/kg range over the Mid-Atlantic and 500-1000 J/kg over the Carolinas, and 1000-1500 J/kg in southeastern GA and northern FL. As noted above, the strongest mid/upper winds will be over the middle parts of the outlook area today, while a 60-75-kt LLJ takes shape from the Carolinas into the eastern Mid-Atlantic. This will foster effective-shear magnitudes peaking around 60-75 kt in the NC/VA/MD region, decreasing but still strong northward and southward. Meanwhile, lengthy hodographs will support effective SRH in the 200-400 J/kg range over much of the corridor. Strongest forcing for ascent should be ahead of the front in the northern parts of the area where buoyancy is weakest, in a strong-shear/ low-CAPE scenario. Uncertainty remains as to coverage of severe gusts reaching the surface given some constraints on low-level lapse rates, but even subsevere winds will be capable of minor structural damage and trees down. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 03/31/2022 Read more