Aggregator

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 221444 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Mario Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 ...MARIO LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.0N 111.9W ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Mario was located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 111.9 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a turn toward the north is expected over the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center will move inland over the central Baja California peninsula on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Mario should degenerate into a remnant low later today or tonight. The low is expected to dissipate by late Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...MARIO LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... As of 9:00 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 the center of Mario was located near 22.0, -111.9 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 221443 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 Jerry is not well organized on satellite images, with a ragged-looking CDO and limited banding features over the eastern semicircle. Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate a slight fall in central pressure but the maximum winds remain near 55 kt. The storm is under the influence of westerly shear, and the numerical guidance does not indicated that this shear will relax during the forecast period. Therefore, only slight strengthening is allowed for in the official forecast. This is a little above most of the model guidance. Jerry continues to move north-northwestward, or 340/9 kt, through a weakness in the subtropical ridge. A mid-tropospheric trough moving off the northeast U.S. coast in a couple of days should cause the cyclone to turn north-northeastward to northeastward with some acceleration later in the forecast period. The official track forecast is close to the previous one and is also similar to the corrected consensus model guidance. Key Messages: 1. The risk of tropical-storm-force winds on Bermuda is increasing, with Jerry forecast to pass near the island Tuesday and Wednesday. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system may have on Bermuda, but interests there should monitor the progress of Jerry. A Tropical Storm Watch could be issued later today for Bermuda. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 25.7N 66.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 26.9N 67.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 28.2N 67.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 29.5N 67.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 31.0N 68.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 35.0N 63.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 40.0N 54.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 45.0N 45.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 221442 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 1500 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) BERMUDA 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 12(19) 37(56) 1(57) X(57) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) X(14) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 221442 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 ...JERRY CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.7N 66.6W ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Jerry. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 66.6 West. Jerry is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected on Monday, followed by a turn toward the northeast late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda late Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter observations is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...JERRY CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 22 the center of Jerry was located near 25.7, -66.6 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 221441 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 1500 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JERRY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 66.6W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 75SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 66.6W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 66.5W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 26.9N 67.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 28.2N 67.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 29.5N 67.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 31.0N 68.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 150SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 35.0N 63.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 110SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 40.0N 54.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 45.0N 45.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.7N 66.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 14:35:02 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 15:52:27 GMT

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 221432 TCDEP5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorena Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 The poorly defined center of what is left of Lorena crossed the coast of northwestern Mexico this morning to the northwest of Guaymas. The system has degenerated into a broad area of low pressure accompanied by a few showers. The low is expected to move farther inland and dissipate tonight or early Monday. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 28.8N 111.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 23/0000Z 30.0N 111.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 221431 PWSEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 1500 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 221431 TCMEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 1500 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 111.5W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 111.5W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 111.5W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 30.0N 111.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.8N 111.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 221431 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorena Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019 ...LORENA DEGENERATES INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.8N 111.5W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNW OF GUAYMAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorena crossed the coast of northwestern Mexico this morning. At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of the disturbance was estimated near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 111.5 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion will continue to bring the disturbance farther inland until dissipation. Maximum sustained winds associated with this system are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Dissipation is expected tonight or early Monday. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over central Sonora. This rainfall may result in life-threatening flash floods in Sonora. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. $$ Forecaster Avila

...LORENA DEGENERATES INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 9:00 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 the center of Lorena was located near 28.8, -111.5 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF OK TO IL THROUGH THIS EVENING... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two, will be possible through this evening from parts of Oklahoma to Illinois. ...OK to IL through this evening... A midlevel shortwave trough with embedded perturbations over the central/northern High Plains will progress eastward to the MS Valley and Great Lakes by tonight. In advance of an embedded speed max over the central High Plains, an associated weak surface cyclone in KS this morning will develop northeastward along a front toward Lower MI by early tonight. A narrow corridor of richer low-level moisture, ranging from upper 60s dewpoints into IL to lower 70s in OK, will be maintained immediately in advance of the weak low and cold front today. A somewhat complex scenario will evolve today with widespread ongoing rainfall and some embedded thunderstorms from OK to WI. Outflow from overnight convection and differential heating today will maintain the effective boundary from northern IL into central MO. An embedded MCV is moving northeastward over southeast KS this morning, and per local VWPs and model forecasts, a 50 kt low-level jet will develop northeastward today with the weak frontal wave and ejecting midlevel trough. Though widespread rainfall will continue to limit lapse rates, the rich low-level moisture and pockets of surface heating in cloud breaks will support MLCAPE ranging from 500 J/kg this afternoon in IL to 1500 J/kg in OK. Enhanced low-midlevel flow/shear along the effective surface boundary, potentially augmented by the remnant MCV moving from KS to MO, may support some embedded rotating storms and/or small bowing segments. The threat for isolated damaging winds and a tornado or two will begin the first half of the day from southeast KS into OK, and continue into late afternoon/evening into IL. ..Thompson/Leitman.. 09/22/2019 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF OK TO IL THROUGH THIS EVENING... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two, will be possible through this evening from parts of Oklahoma to Illinois. ...OK to IL through this evening... A midlevel shortwave trough with embedded perturbations over the central/northern High Plains will progress eastward to the MS Valley and Great Lakes by tonight. In advance of an embedded speed max over the central High Plains, an associated weak surface cyclone in KS this morning will develop northeastward along a front toward Lower MI by early tonight. A narrow corridor of richer low-level moisture, ranging from upper 60s dewpoints into IL to lower 70s in OK, will be maintained immediately in advance of the weak low and cold front today. A somewhat complex scenario will evolve today with widespread ongoing rainfall and some embedded thunderstorms from OK to WI. Outflow from overnight convection and differential heating today will maintain the effective boundary from northern IL into central MO. An embedded MCV is moving northeastward over southeast KS this morning, and per local VWPs and model forecasts, a 50 kt low-level jet will develop northeastward today with the weak frontal wave and ejecting midlevel trough. Though widespread rainfall will continue to limit lapse rates, the rich low-level moisture and pockets of surface heating in cloud breaks will support MLCAPE ranging from 500 J/kg this afternoon in IL to 1500 J/kg in OK. Enhanced low-midlevel flow/shear along the effective surface boundary, potentially augmented by the remnant MCV moving from KS to MO, may support some embedded rotating storms and/or small bowing segments. The threat for isolated damaging winds and a tornado or two will begin the first half of the day from southeast KS into OK, and continue into late afternoon/evening into IL. ..Thompson/Leitman.. 09/22/2019 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF OK TO IL THROUGH THIS EVENING... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two, will be possible through this evening from parts of Oklahoma to Illinois. ...OK to IL through this evening... A midlevel shortwave trough with embedded perturbations over the central/northern High Plains will progress eastward to the MS Valley and Great Lakes by tonight. In advance of an embedded speed max over the central High Plains, an associated weak surface cyclone in KS this morning will develop northeastward along a front toward Lower MI by early tonight. A narrow corridor of richer low-level moisture, ranging from upper 60s dewpoints into IL to lower 70s in OK, will be maintained immediately in advance of the weak low and cold front today. A somewhat complex scenario will evolve today with widespread ongoing rainfall and some embedded thunderstorms from OK to WI. Outflow from overnight convection and differential heating today will maintain the effective boundary from northern IL into central MO. An embedded MCV is moving northeastward over southeast KS this morning, and per local VWPs and model forecasts, a 50 kt low-level jet will develop northeastward today with the weak frontal wave and ejecting midlevel trough. Though widespread rainfall will continue to limit lapse rates, the rich low-level moisture and pockets of surface heating in cloud breaks will support MLCAPE ranging from 500 J/kg this afternoon in IL to 1500 J/kg in OK. Enhanced low-midlevel flow/shear along the effective surface boundary, potentially augmented by the remnant MCV moving from KS to MO, may support some embedded rotating storms and/or small bowing segments. The threat for isolated damaging winds and a tornado or two will begin the first half of the day from southeast KS into OK, and continue into late afternoon/evening into IL. ..Thompson/Leitman.. 09/22/2019 Read more

Issued at 800 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 221153 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 800 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 ...CENTER OF KAREN PASSING JUST NORTH OF TOBAGO... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.9N 60.9W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ESE OF GRENADA ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF ST. VINCENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for St. Vincent and the Grenadines. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Trinidad and Tobago * Grenada and its dependencies * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Tropical Storm Warnings may be issued later today for other portions of the Windward Islands. A Tropical Storm Watch will likely be issued later today for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Elsewhere, interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Karen. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 60.9 West. Karen is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northwest is forecast to occur on Monday, followed by a turn toward the north on Tuesday. On the forecast track, Karen will move across the Windward Islands today, and emerge over the southeastern Caribbean Sea tonight. On Tuesday, Karen is expected to approach Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach those islands within the warning area this morning and afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. RAINFALL: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Windward Islands...3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches. Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches. Far northeastern Venezuela and Barbados...1 to 3 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 11:53:33 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 09:32:33 GMT

000
ABNT20 KNHC 221115
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jerry, located several hundred miles south of Bermuda. The
National Hurricane Center is also issuing advisories on newly
formed Tropical Storm Karen located near the southern Windward
Islands.

Satellite images show that the thunderstorm activity associated
with a strong tropical wave that has moved off the west coast of
Africa this morning is quickly becoming better organized.
Environmental conditions are conducive for further development, and
a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form later
today or tonight while the system moves generally westward over the
eastern tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph. Interests in the Cabo
Verde Island should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
Regardless of development, this system is likely to bring locally
heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the southern Cabo
Verde Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Karen are issued under WMO
header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Karen are issued under
WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

$$
Forecaster Brown

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221102
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Sep 22 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Lorena, located over the central Gulf of California,
on Tropical Depression Mario, located a few hundred miles south
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on
Tropical Storm Kiko, located over the far southwestern part of the
basin.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected for the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila