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MD 0554 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF NORTH TX INTO SOUTHEAST OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0554 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0949 AM CDT Sun Apr 24 2022 Areas affected...Parts of North TX into southeast OK Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 241449Z - 241645Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of localized severe hail will continue through the morning and potentially into this afternoon. Watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...Convection has persisted through much of the night into the early morning across parts of north TX, within a warm-advection regime driven by a 25-35 kt low-level jet (as noted per recent DYX and FWS VWPs). Convection will likely continue this morning within an axis of moderate MUCAPE (1000-1500 J/kg), with effective shear of 30-40 kt supporting organized multicells and perhaps a supercell or two, with a primary threat of large hail. Thunderstorms will likely persist through much of the day, as low-level moisture transport continues along and north of a cold front moving southward across southern OK into north TX, with a continued threat of hail and perhaps locally strong wind gusts with the stronger storms near and just north of the boundary. Watch issuance is possible across parts of the region to cover the threat into this afternoon. ..Dean/Guyer.. 04/24/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 33049765 32919988 33819924 34449760 34709584 34349540 33719550 33159684 33049765 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Sun Apr 24 2022 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND THE MID-MS VALLEY TO LOWER MI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered large hail, isolated severe wind gusts, and a tornado or two are possible across parts of the southern Great Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. Scattered damaging winds, marginally severe hail, and a tornado or two are also possible this afternoon into early evening from the Mid-Missouri Valley to Lower Michigan. ...West TX to the Red River Valley of the South... A couple thunderstorms are ongoing in a portion of the Big Country near a slowly southward-sagging surface cold front. More expansive convective development is expected by midday and will persist into the afternoon, along and on the cool side of the front, with approach of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse ejecting east from NM. This will largely yield an undercutting convective scenario with mainly a threat for severe hail in the strongest updrafts. The warm sector south of the undercutting front into central TX will likely remain too capped to support meaningful convective potential per the 12Z DRT sounding. Thus, have refined the cat 2-SLGT risk within the most probable corridor for stronger updrafts along the baroclinic zone this afternoon in the north TX vicinity. Farther southwest near the Concho to Lower Pecos Valleys and the western Edwards Plateau, a few discrete supercells may develop during the early evening along the trailing portion of the front intersecting with the dryline. Despite weak low-level flow, 40-50 kt effective bulk shear in conjunction with MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg should support a threat for large hail. It is plausible that a slow-moving cluster may shift east-southeast along the composite convective outflow/cold front during the mid to late evening with a threat for isolated severe gusts before convection wanes tonight. ...Mid-MS Valley to Lower MI... Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon in a broad low-level warm conveyor ahead of a surface cold front impinging eastward. Pockets of moderate boundary-layer heating should support a plume of weak MLCAPE from 500-1000 J/kg amid surface dew points largely in the 50s to low 60s and modest mid-level lapse rates. Low to mid-level shear will generally be stronger with northeast extent across the region but with more muted boundary-layer moisture. While transient supercells are possible, much of the activity should tend to evolve into clusters. Strong to isolated severe wind gusts may result in scattered damaging winds, which appears to be the most likely hazard. The overall severe threat should diminish after dusk. ..Grams/Jewell.. 04/24/2022 Read more

South Texas farmers are spending extra money to cope with the challenges of drought. One grower pays more than $300 monthly for irrigation water. Farmers spend more for feed and have to adapt when they run out of grass. Chickens and ducks eat bugs, but with drought, there is no grass, which is where the insects usually reside. A grass-fed beef producer grows his own hay, but with no rain falling, hay is not abundant. Many growers are praying for rain. KIII-TV3 South Texas (Corpus Christi, Texas), April 23, 2022

The Campbell Road Fire is located east of Des Moines off of Road 370 and Campbell Road in Union County. Numerous local resources are at the scene and working in very rough terrain. The cause is under investigation. Fuels include grass, brush, and

Wildfire - Pine Park Fire in the Datil Mountains of the Magdalena Range District of the Cibola National Forest and National Grasslands started on Thurs. April 21st. Resources responded for full suppression to approximately 15-20 acres. Cause is

No watches are valid as of Sat Apr 23 13:39:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Apr 23 13:39:01 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0719 AM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UPPER MIDWEST TO OK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly this afternoon and evening, from the Upper Midwest to Oklahoma. This will include a threat for a few tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. ...Synopsis... A deep 988-mb cyclone over central SD should drift north-northeast towards the Red River Valley through tonight. A confined warm/moist sector of mainly mid to upper 50s surface dew points should bend to the northwest ahead of this cyclone. A dryline will likely mix east from southwest MN to west-central OK. The cyclone will eventually occlude as a cold front overtakes the dryline this evening. ...Eastern Dakotas to west-central MN... Early morning warm-advection-driven convection across western portions of IA/MN will likely progress northeast and weaken, with boundary-layer destabilization occurring in its wake. Pronounced mid-level height falls/DCVA will aid in substantial cooling around 700-mb and should support a broken arc of modestly topped convection from southeast ND/northeast SD to west-central MN around midday to early afternoon. A few supercells should develop with a threat for short-lived tornadoes, large hail, and locally damaging winds. Updrafts should quickly become elevated after they cross a sharp surface warm front in northeast ND/northern MN but may still pose a threat for isolated severe hail. ...Southern MN to OK... Adequate cold advection around 700 mb atop surface temperatures warming into the 80s west of the aforementioned dryline should yield sufficient weakening of MLCIN for scattered thunderstorms to develop during the late afternoon to early evening. With surface dew points expected to largely peak around the upper 50s, along with weaknesses in mid-level lapse rates, confidence is low in greater severe potential despite the presence of 55-65 kt effective shear. The best chance for semi-discrete supercells will be across the OK/southeast KS portion of the outlook area where shear vectors will be oriented more perpendicular to the dryline. Here, a couple tornadoes will be possible in addition to scattered large hail and damaging winds. Clusters should tend to dominate with northern extent into IA and southern MN, with a mix of damaging winds and severe hail, along with perhaps a tornado. The eastward extent of the severe threat will be limited by the narrowness of the buoyancy plume, with an expected decrease in intensity by late evening. ..Grams/Jewell.. 04/23/2022 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Apr 22 13:48:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Apr 22 13:48:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0725 AM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WESTERN NEBRASKA TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Episodic significant severe weather is possible across portions of the central to southern High Plains beginning late this afternoon and continuing into tonight. Very large hail and damaging straight-line winds, in addition to at least a few tornadoes are anticipated. ...Southern to central High Plains... As robust cyclogenesis occurs from the Denver metro area to the NE Panhandle this afternoon into early evening, mid-level height falls will overspread an arcing dryline from central NE to the TX South Plains. Initially high-based convective development is most likely across the western Panhandles into western KS. With a plume of mid 50s to low 60s surface dew points expected to be maintained ahead of the dryline, this convection should deepen into scattered discrete supercells. Large hail, some of which may be significant, should be the primary initial hazard. Despite strong gradient surface winds, strengthening of the low-level jet will yield increasingly enlarged clockwise-curved hodographs during the early evening. This would typically favor tornadoes as well, however, guidance differs substantially with the degree of vertical boundary-layer mixing east of the dryline. As such, confidence is low for a greater tornado threat and HREF-based guidance indicates a rather pronounced convective wind signal despite the primary discrete mode. Guidance is more consistent in depicting cold low-level theta-e advection from the south during the evening. This should result in a general weakening convective trend towards late evening. A later round of separate convective development is likely towards late evening as the Pacific cold front impinges on the western extent of the buoyancy plume near the NE/CO/KS border area. This should result in a north/south-oriented convective line quickly spreading into western portions of NE/KS. Very strong wind profiles should promote a threat for severe wind and some hail, although duration and spatial extent overnight will probably be limited by the pervasive cold low-level theta-e advection in the warm sector, reducing available CAPE with time. ...Western SD and northwest NE... A rather tight baroclinic zone will lie to the north of the slow-moving warm front/quasi-stationary frontal zone extending from the deepening central High Plains cyclone. A narrow bent-back plume of 50s surface dew points should be maintained beneath an initially stout elevated mixed layer. Guidance differs with where exactly this corridor will setup, but it is plausible that a surface-based storm may ride along the boundary within an SRH-enriched environment near the SD/NE border area. Additional storms, likely elevated, are possible farther west-northwest. Hodographs will be highly elongated, yielding the potential for a longer-lived supercell or two, with the main threat being significant large hail. ...Upper Midwest... Isolated, marginally severe hail will be possible mainly this morning, and separately farther north tonight, within a low-level warm theta-e advection regime. This potential will be supported by steepening mid-level lapse rates attendant to an expanding Great Plains elevated mixed-layer and adequate shear within the cloud-bearing layer. ..Grams/Jewell.. 04/22/2022 Read more

Central Texas Groundwater Conservation District entered Stage 3 drought conditions on April 19. Under Stage 3, voluntary conservation of 20% is recommended, so the public is asked to reduce outdoor water use. DailyTrib.com (Marble Falls, Texas), April 20, 2022

Hill Air Force Base is receiving less water from Weber Basin Water Conservancy District due to low snowpack and extremely low runoff in recent years. WBWCD reduced Hill’s secondary water allocations by 60% and its culinary water allocation by 48.6% overall. Furthermore, any water used above and beyond the allocation will be billed at 200% of the contracted value. Hill Air Force Base (Weber County, Utah), April 20, 2022

The Contra Costa Water District called for customers to conserve 15% compared to 2020 levels. A 15% drought surcharge will also be added to bills beginning July 1. The surcharge will encourage conservation and help recover revenue from lower water sales. The Mercury News (San Jose, Calif.), April 21, 2022

No watches are valid as of Thu Apr 21 13:46:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Apr 21 13:46:01 UTC 2022.

 The Nina Lucia Fire started along County Road 273 approximately 6 miles southwest of the town of Maryneal. Texas A&M Forest Service (TAMFS) was requested and is working in unified command with local responders. Heavy equipment was engaged on the ground to begin working the flanks of the fire while aviation resource made several drops to try and slow forward progression. Currently the Nina Lucia Fire is burning in heavy Brush and grass with a moderate rate of

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Thu Apr 21 2022 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA TO CENTRAL KANSAS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Large, damaging hail, severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado are possible with any thunderstorms that can develop over parts of the northwestern Oklahoma to central Kansas region. ...Synopsis... A substantial mid/upper-level pattern change is underway across the CONUS, increasingly emphasizing cyclonic flow across the West. This will occur in response to a large synoptic-scale cyclone -- initially centered approximately 500 nm west of the mouth of the Columbia River -- and the troughing that extends southward past 30N in the northeastern Pacific. As several vorticity maxima orbit the mid/upper low, the cyclone will move inland over the Pacific Northwest tonight. An intense, basal shortwave trough will move eastward and onshore central/southern CA tonight as well. By 12Z tomorrow, the resulting major 500-mb trough will extend from southern BC through the low, to coastal southern CA, and farther south, to the west of much of Baja. In response to these developments, heights should rise over much of the Great Plains through the period, while falling west of the Rockies. A very subtle shortwave trough -- evident in moisture-channel imagery over parts of southern NM, far west TX and Chihuahua, should move slowly northeastward today, its northern fringe reaching parts of southwestern KS and the TX/OK Panhandles around 00Z, in even weaker form. The 11Z surface analysis showed a low near AMA, with a weak cold front westward over northeastern NM and a wavy warm front over southwestern, central and northeastern OK, to northwestern AR. The low is expected to drift northward to northeastward and weaken through the afternoon, while the warm front moves northward to southern KS. As lee cyclogenesis occurs overnight in CO, the front will move northward across eastern CO and central/northern KS. A dryline was analyzed near a CDS-HOB-INK line and southward over the TX Big Bend region. This boundary will mix eastward through late afternoon, as far as southwestern KS, northwestern OK, to northwest TX, to near 6R6, before retreating rapidly northwestward across the southern High Plains and western KS overnight. ...Central/southern Plains to parts of MO/IA... Isolated to widely scattered, surface-based thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and this evening over parts of western OK into central KS. Any sustained convection could become supercellular, with up to significant (2+ inch diameter) hail sizes, damaging gusts, and a brief/conditional window of tornadic opportunity. Severe potential in this regime is conditional, and the "slight" area has been pared down to where the parameter space is most favorable (below) and largest hail sizes possible, should storms form. In the area from northwestern OK to central KS, the already meager large-scale effect of the weak, approaching southern-stream shortwave trough may be offset by ambient synoptic height rises. As such, little (if any) mid/upper support is expected, and surface- based convective potential will depend on sustained lift related to the front and dryline beneath a weakening EML inversion. This may be sufficient for initiation anyway, given 3-4 hours of essentially no MLCINH present in unmodified soundings from multiple synoptic models and CAMs. These progs, unsurprisingly in such a subtly balanced scenario, appear: 1) Largely underdone on warm-sector surface heating and 2) Very inconsistent on convective production/duration. The parameter space will be favorable, with surface dewpoints generally in the upper 50s to mid 60s F and steep mid/upper-level lapse rates supporting MLCAPE in the 2000-3000 J/kg range. Low- level flow will veer well with height, along and within about 100 nm south of the front, contributing to 35-45-kt effective-shear magnitudes. Hodographs should enlarge considerably during the early evening as boundary-layer moisture increases somewhat, with effective SRH as high as the 350-450 J/kg range. A 1-2 hour early- evening time window will exist for large hodographs while effective- inflow parcels are still surface-based -- if a storm can develop and mature to take advantage. More-certain, denser-coverage, but mostly less-intense convection is expected tonight north of the front, in a broad, elevated low-level warm-advection regime with steep preconvective lapse rates aloft. Isolated severe hail and perhaps a strong-severe gust may occur with that activity atop a boundary layer that is still somewhat dry as well as stable -- before convection/precip become overly expansive and messy in mode. The greatest potential for large and perhaps briefly significant hail will be on the southern rim of this activity, closest to the surface warm front, where inflow of relatively high-theta-e air atop the frontal surface will be least impeded. ..Edwards/Dean.. 04/21/2022 Read more