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The Marin Municipal Water District Board of Directors voted unanimously on May 3 to continue limiting sprinkler use to two days per week instead of the three days allowed before drought restrictions were adopted in 2021. Drip irrigation will be allowed three days a week. All pool owners in the district must also have a pool cover. A few rules were rescinded also, concerning car washing at home and the ban on landscape planting. Marin Independent Journal (Calif.), May 4, 2022

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CDT Thu May 05 2022 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z The Elevated risk area is expanded southward to encompass portions of the Sacramento, Guadelupe, and Davis mountain ranges in southern NM/southwest TX. Latest surface observations already show RH values near 15% with further reduction likely by late afternoon amid deep boundary-layer mixing. Relatively benign winds at the moment will increase through the day as stronger mid-level flow at around 20-25 mph mixes down to the surface within, and in the lee of, the higher terrain. Persistent elevated conditions appear likely, and brief/localized critical conditions are possible. The forecast regarding central NM and portions of southern NV remain on track. See the previous discussion below for details. ..Moore.. 05/05/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1226 AM CDT Thu May 05 2022/ ...Synopsis... The central/southern Plains mid-level trough will continue its slow progression eastward today. Across the West Coast, broadly cyclonic flow will exist with a strong upper-level jet across the northern Sierra. At the surface, fire weather concerns will be driven by weak surface trough development in the Great Basin and in eastern New Mexico. ...Central New Mexico... Mid-level winds will be decreasing during the day. However, they will be sufficient to induce a weak lee trough in the eastern plains. Winds of 15-20 mph with perhaps some higher speeds in terrain-favored areas. Dry air will once again be present with afternoon RH falling to 10-15%. ...Southern Nevada... Temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s F will support afternoon RH of 10-20% across much of Nevada. A weak surface trough in the Great Basin will promote 15-20 mph winds. Elevated fire weather concerns will exist where fuels have sufficiently dried. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0181 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0181 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 181 TORNADO AR LA TX 051510Z - 052300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 181 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CDT Thu May 5 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southwest Arkansas Northwest Louisiana Northeast into central Texas * Effective this Thursday morning and evening from 1010 AM until 600 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this morning through the afternoon and move east across the watch area. Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible, in addition to large hail with any robust supercells. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northwest of El Dorado AR to 10 miles south southwest of Austin TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Smith/Hart Read more

MD 0656 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHEAST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0656 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0945 AM CDT Thu May 05 2022 Areas affected...Parts of central through northeast Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 051445Z - 051645Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A substantive further increase in thunderstorms appears probable into early afternoon, including the evolution of a gradually organizing cluster of storms with damaging wind gusts becoming the more prominent hazard later this afternoon. DISCUSSION...An increase in thunderstorm development is ongoing near the Interstate 35 corridor of central Texas. This appears focused near a pre-cold frontal confluence zone (along a wind shift from southwesterly to west-southwesterly around the 850 mb level), aided by increasingly divergent upper flow downstream of large-scale mid/upper troughing pivoting east of the southern Rockies. Breaks in cloud cover preceding this activity will allow for insolation to contribute to weakening of mid-level inhibition. Mixed-layer CAPE already appears on the order of 2000 J/kg, and it appears that large-scale forcing for ascent may support a substantive further increase in convection and upscale growth through early afternoon. Deep-layer shear is strong and supportive of organizing convection, with 30-50 kt southwesterly to west-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer. This may include a few supercells initially, with 40+ kt southwesterly deep-layer mean flow supporting advection of initial activity toward the Ark-La-Tex, before strengthening rear inflow contributes an eastward/southeastward progression of consolidating outflow later this afternoon. As this occurs, damaging wind gusts will become the more prominent severe hazard after stronger initial storms pose a risk for large hail and perhaps a tornado or two. ..Kerr/Smith.. 05/05/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... LAT...LON 30619811 31169770 31819680 33289483 32869361 31219527 30289690 30279797 30619811 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Thu May 05 2022 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF EAST TX...SOUTHERN AR...AND NORTHWEST LA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely, mainly during the afternoon into early evening across parts of central to east Texas through the Mid-South. Damaging winds should be the primary hazard, but isolated tornadoes and large hail will also be possible. ...Central and east TX to the Mid-South... The remnants of extensive convective overturning overnight are ongoing across parts of MO/AR/OK. A lead MCV associated with a decaying MCS has reached southeast MO, outpacing most CAM guidance. Flow enhancement attendant to the MCV should largely remain on the cool side of the surface warm front and outpace richer boundary-layer moisture as it tracks into the Lower OH Valley. It appears plausible that trailing convective outflow oriented from northeast to southwest will effectively serve as the primary boundary for afternoon storm development in the Mid-South region of the MS Valley. Steepening low-level lapse rates to its east/south should promote a main threat of scattered damaging wind gusts, with low confidence tornado potential focused near the warm front/outflow intersection. Farther west-southwest, elevated convection over southeast OK spreading east-southeast combined with additional convective development blossoming along the composite surface cold front/outflow into central TX should foster widespread thunderstorms this afternoon. The most favorable low-level hodographs should tend to be focused near the Ark-La-Tex and Sabine Valley where embedded supercells would be capable of producing a few tornadoes. Given the progressiveness of the composite cold front/outflow along with the bulk of deep-layer winds largely paralleling this boundary (especially with southwest extent in TX), a linear convective mode with surging cold pools is expected to dominate. While large hail is possible given a plume of 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE and 40-50 kt effective bulk shear, damaging winds should be the most prolific hazard in terms of coverage. The severe threat should diminish after dusk as MCSs shift south/east away from stronger low-level flow attendant to the KS/Ozark Plateau upper low and stronger instability in south TX. ...Ozark Plateau vicinity... Large-scale ascent tied to the primary mid-level vorticity maximum embedded within the upper low over western KS will approach the KS/OK/MO/AR borders region this afternoon. Extensive convective overturning this morning and residual cloudiness will likely mitigate substantial boundary-layer heating. Nevertheless, a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates near the low and adequate deep-layer shear should promote a threat for mainly isolated severe hail during the late afternoon to early evening. ..Grams/Broyles.. 05/05/2022 Read more

The George Washington and Jefferson National Forests will conduct prescribed burns in multiple counties this spring. Prescribed burns improve wildlife habitat by restoring open woodlands and grasslands to the forest landscape. Safety is the Forest Service’s top priority, and Forest fire managers will conduct prescribed burns only under appropriate weather conditions. Experienced fire managers will closely monitor local weather conditions, such as wind and humidity, and adjust the schedule as needed to ensure the safety of both crewmembers and local residents. Prior to lighting the burn, crews construct and designate firebreaks to ensure the fire does not leave the burn area. The burn will mimic historic natural fire as much as possible. Some individual trees will burn, but the fire should travel mostly across the forest floor. For thousands of years, fire shaped our forests and wildlife and our lands need fire to be healthy. Low intensity prescribed burns create open areas where a...

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0943 AM CDT Wed May 04 2022 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN TO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO... The ongoing forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on morning observations and latest trends is morning guidance. The 12 UTC ABQ and EPZ soundings sampled a dry boundary layer over NM and surface observations show RH already falling into the upper teens to low 20s. Further drying is expected as broad subsidence overspreads the region to the south of an upper-level low over CO. Uncertainty remains regarding the extent of the fire weather threat across the western TX Panhandle, and will be dependent on where the dryline sharpens this afternoon. Additionally, morning clouds and light rainfall across southeast NM and southwest TX introduce some uncertainty regrading the RH forecast for this afternoon. However, there are several factors that justify maintaining the ongoing risk areas, including regional ERCs above the 90th percentile, limited observed recent rainfall at the surface, observed RH falls on the western periphery of the cloud deck, and a strong signal in ensemble guidance for elevated to critical conditions by late afternoon. ..Moore.. 05/04/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Wed May 04 2022/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper-level trough across the Four Corners and central Rockies will move eastward into the central/southern Plains today. A surface cyclone will deepen in eastern New Mexico. Fire weather concerns will be focused across New Mexico. ...New Mexico into West Texas... Strong surface winds are expected to develop behind a composite front/dryline in West Texas. Winds of 20-25 mph are probable across much southern, central, and northeastern New Mexico. RH of 10-15% will be common, but locally 5-10% is possible. Critical conditions may extend into parts of the Texas Panhandle and South Plains at least briefly. With modest uncertainty in the dryline position and possible South Plains precipitation this morning, Elevated highlights will be maintained in these areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed May 4 14:46:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed May 4 14:46:01 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0729 AM CDT Wed May 04 2022 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE...WESTERN NORTH TX...AND SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL OK... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the southern Great Plains this afternoon through tonight. Strong tornado and very large hail potential are most probable across the southeast Texas Panhandle into portions of southern Oklahoma and north Texas. ...Southern Great Plains... A wide variety of potential forecast outcomes are evident today with unusually large spread among guidance at this stage of the outlook cycle. As such, the middle categorical risk is probably the most statistically appropriate forecast, even though potential does exist for intense supercells capable of producing very large hail and strong tornadoes. Initially, guidance diverges with the degree of late morning elevated convective coverage within a robust low-level warm theta-e advection regime. The western and southern extent of this activity differs substantially which provides low confidence in how far the surface warm front will advance. The leading edge of rich western Gulf moisture characterized by mid 60s surface dew points has spread across the Permian Basin and the Edwards Plateau into eastern TX. Guidance that is subdued with elevated convection such as the 09Z RAP/HRRR suggests this moisture plume and warm front will reach the southeast TX Panhandle and at least the southern half of OK. This profoundly impacts the potential intensity of dryline supercells, with several HRRR runs adamant of long-lived, high-end 2-5 km updraft helicity near the dryline/surface warm front intersection. Under a more suppressive scenario such as the 06Z NAM or 00Z ARW-NSSL, MLCAPE into the TX Panhandle would be much more subdued in amplitude and spatial extent leading to initial discrete supercells tending to quickly evolve across a cooler boundary layer over the eastern panhandle and western OK. Differences are also pronounced with the degree of warm sector convective development well ahead of the dryline from the Big Country to north-central TX during the afternoon. This too will have impacts spatially on how far north MCS development occurs this evening. The primary strengthening of broad low-level southerlies is anticipated in the 03-06Z time frame as the primary vorticity lobe within the slow-moving southern Rockies shortwave trough ejects onto the south-central High Plains. By this time, convective mode will probably be dominated by eastward-moving MCSs with the primary severe threat confined to along and south of the spatially unclear warm front. ...Southeast VA and the Carolinas... A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Lower Great Lakes will move east into southern New England this evening. To the south of this wave, a cold front will push southeast across the Lower Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas. Convergence along the cold front and coastal sea breezes should support scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. While deep-layer shear will be modest, it should be adequate for multicells capable of isolated severe hail and damaging winds. Convection should largely shift offshore and/or weaken after dusk. ..Grams/Mosier.. 05/04/2022 Read more

Drought and fire have been hard on Nebraska farms. Some ground cover, hay bales and pastureland burned in fires; some livestock have been lost while others have been scattered in the fires. Top soil is eroding, and the lack of snow during the past winter left the land exposed. Many miles of fencing were consumed in the fires, and a single mile of four-wire fencing costs $13,000 to $19,000 to replace, if supplies can be found. Some farmers turned to electric fences temporarily, but given the dry ground, the fences cannot carry a current because they can’t get a good “ground,” and cattle walk through them. Omaha World-Herald (Neb.), May 2, 2022

The beef cow slaughter through mid-April is up 16.9% year over year and is a surprisingly high rate of cow slaughter for spring. Drought impacts from 2021, combined with very strong cull cow prices and limited forage prospects are likely reflected in the rate. Significant beef cow herd liquidation may occur in 2022 unless drought improves quickly and substantially. Beef Magazine (St. Charles, Ill.), April 30, 2022

After a dry fall and winter in the Great Plains, and very arid, windy spring, the wheat has had about as much as it can take. In southwestern Kansas, a wheat grower abandoned 800 acres at planting time due to no soil moisture. Hopefully recent moisture can improve the growth and yield of his remaining wheat, otherwise it will only be 12 inches tall. Dribs and drabs of precipitation have kept the wheat alive in northwest Kanas, but yield potential is already lost and increasing. Large areas of the major wheat growing regions may be on track to see below average yields as dry weather persists from the central to the southern Plains. The high winds have stolen away moisture and resulted in blowing dust and buried wheat crops. In eastern Nebraska, the endless wind has left the dryland wheat “graying out,” while even the irrigated wheat stands are thin and uneven. Evapotranspiration has topped 10 inches this year, twice the norm. Many wheat fields in western Oklahoma were abandoned due to drought. DTN – Progressive Farmer (Burnsville, Minn.), May 3, 2022

The Idaho Department of Water Resources issued a drought declaration for 34 counties south of the Salmon River on April 28. The declarations will let water users file “extraordinary” water right-related applications allowing them more flexibility to move water. Boise State Public Radio (Idaho), May 3, 2022

 This prescribed burn was successfully completed on

No watches are valid as of Tue May 3 13:51:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue May 3 13:51:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Tue May 03 2022 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MID TO UPPER OH VALLEY AND A SMALL PART OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a couple tornadoes are possible across parts of the Ohio Valley this afternoon through about dusk. Isolated very large hail will be possible along a small portion of the Rio Grande Valley this evening. ...OH Valley... Scattered convection is ongoing across parts of the OH Valley and Midwest regions within a low-level warm theta-e advection regime. This early-day activity will likely persist into this afternoon, lowering confidence in the degree of boundary-layer heating with northern extent. Nevertheless, a plume of low to mid 60s surface dew points emanating northeast from the Lower OH Valley should eventually yield a pronounced gradient in MLCAPE from northeast to southwest this afternoon. Primary severe potential should develop during the afternoon as scattered convection forms ahead of the cold front. Amid predominately unidirectional southwesterly flow, low-level hodographs should be modestly enlarged. However, winds above 700 mb will largely be similar to or weakening in speed with height. As such, a cluster convective mode with transient supercell structures will probably dominate. Damaging winds should be the primary threat, but a couple tornadoes along with isolated severe hail will also be possible. ...Rio Grande Valley in southwest TX... Strong heating across northern Coahuila should contribute to convection developing over the higher terrain west of Del Rio where return flow remains moist. A couple supercells (most likely a left-mover but possibly right) could approach/cross the international border with an attendant threat for significant large hail given large buoyancy and rather favorable deep-layer shear. Much of the convection should remain west of the U.S. border. ...Elsewhere in TX... Near a decaying MCS over the Sabine Valley, residual convective outflow intersecting with a slowing cold front may support an isolated severe storm or two this afternoon. Despite weak low-level shear, sufficient deep-layer shear will exist for a supercell capable of isolated large hail and locally strong gusts. The 00Z ECMWF and 06Z HRRR are two models most insistent on elevated convection developing overnight in the TX South Plains vicinity as robust warm theta-e advection occurs well downstream of a shortwave trough gradually shifting east from the Great Basin to the central/southern Rockies. Other guidance suggest profiles will remain capped in this region with highly elevated convection possible farther to the northeast near the end of the period. While the threat appears conditional, very steep mid-level lapse rates and ample cloud-bearing shear would support a threat for severe hail. ...VA/NC... Isolated severe storms will be possible along and west of a stalled front draped across this region. Strong boundary-layer heating is expected west/south front and this should allow surface parcels to reach their convective temperatures by mid to late afternoon. A few thunderstorms should develop along the higher terrain and near the frontal zone. 25-30 kts of 500-mb westerly flow could allow a few updrafts to briefly organize. ..Grams/Mosier.. 05/03/2022 Read more