Aggregator

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241749
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 24 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kiko, which will move into the central Pacific basin this
afternoon.

A weak area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Significant development of this system is not
expected while it moves northward at 5 to 10 mph through Wednesday
and then becomes absorbed within a larger trough on Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

An elongated surface trough is expected to form within a couple of
hundred miles of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next
several days. An area of low pressure is likely to form along this
trough, and it could become a tropical depression over the weekend
while moving slowly west-northwestward near the southwestern coast
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Another area of low pressure could form several hundred miles
south-southwest of southern tip of the Baja California peninsula in
a day or two. Some development is possible later this week while
the system moves slowly northward or northeastward. This system is
likely to be absorbed over the weekend by the larger system that is
expected to develop near the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 17:45:41 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 15:31:54 GMT

Issued at 200 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 241745 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 200 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 ...KAREN SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS THE CENTER REFORMS A LITTLE TO THE WEST... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 66.0W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM W OF ST. CROIX MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Karen. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 66.0 West. Karen has moved erratically during the past few hours as the center has re-formed a little to the west. However, it is expected to resume a motion toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h) this afternoon. A north-northeastward motion with some increase in forward speed is forecast tonight through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands this afternoon and then move over the western Atlantic tonight and Wednesday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 45 mph (70 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional slow strengthening is expected during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) mainly to the southeast of the center. Surface observations indicate that wind gusts to tropical-storm force are occurring over portions of the Virgin Islands and southeastern Puerto Rico. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data and surface observations is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8 inches. Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are currently spreading across the warning area. Winds could be higher on the windward sides of hills and mountains, and also in elevated terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...KAREN SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS THE CENTER REFORMS A LITTLE TO THE WEST... As of 2:00 PM AST Tue Sep 24 the center of Karen was located near 17.5, -66.0 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

777
ABNT20 KNHC 241738
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jerry, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of Bermuda,
on Tropical Storm Karen, located just south of Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands, and on Tropical Storm Lorenzo, located over the
eastern tropical Atlantic.

A weak area of low pressure centered near the north coast of the
Yucatan peninsula is producing a small area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of the low is
possible while it moves slowly westward at 5 to 10 mph across the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. The
disturbance is expected to move inland over northeastern Mexico
late Friday or Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 17:36:56 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 15:25:00 GMT

Issued at 200 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 241735 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 29A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 200 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019 ...JERRY WEAKENING... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.9N 69.1W ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM WSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 010 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 69.1 West. Jerry is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the northeast is expected by tonight, followed by a turn to the east-northeast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda on Wednesday. Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that the maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by early Wednesday. RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall across Bermuda through Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...JERRY WEAKENING... As of 2:00 PM AST Tue Sep 24 the center of Jerry was located near 30.9, -69.1 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS WELL AS PARTS OF ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms with gusty winds and hail are possible over parts of southern Kansas/Missouri and northern Oklahoma/Arkansas, as well as across parts of Arizona on Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Split flow upper pattern will prevail Wednesday with amplifying dominant northern-stream trough from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. Farther south a cutoff upper low is forecast to remain nearly stationary near the northern Baja CA area. A cold front expected to extend from the upper Great Lakes into western KS by 12Z Wednesday will move southeast and should extend from the lower Great Lakes westward into northern OK and the TX Panhandle by the end of this period. ...Southern Kansas, northern Oklahoma through Southern Missouri and northern Arkansas... A few non-severe thunderstorms might be ongoing over the middle to lower MS Valley within zone of modest pre-frontal warm advection. A moist boundary layer with low 70s F dewpoints will reside in the warm sector, which in conjunction with modest 6.5 - 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates and diabatic warming of the surface layer should support 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE during the afternoon. A capping inversion might limit surface-based thunderstorm development much of the day along the front where low-level convergence will be weak and relatively shallow. However, a few storms might initiate along the cold front or any residual outflow boundaries by late afternoon or early evening from southeast KS and extreme northern OK into southwest MO. The warm sector will have been shunted south of the stronger winds aloft accompanying the amplifying northern-stream trough, with sfc-6 km vertical shear from 25-35 kt in frontal zone, supportive of mostly multicells. However, a couple of marginal supercell structures cannot be ruled out. Additional storms may develop during the evening within zone of increasing frontal forcing and isentropic ascent associated withe the strengthening low-level jet. A few of the storms could produce locally strong wind gusts and hail. Will maintain MRGL risk category this update given the weak shear environment, but a lower-end slight risk might be needed in day 1 updates. ...Central through southern Arizona... A feed of subtropical moisture will persist east of the upper low-center across eastern AZ, and this might promote areas of clouds and showers early in the period, limiting instability. Greater destabilization might occur from western through central AZ where dewpoints in the 60s F will support moderate instability (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) as the surface layer warms. At the current time, it appears that the greater destabilization potential will reside west of the belt of stronger winds aloft. Nevertheless, storms developing in this regime may become capable of producing a few wet microbursts from mid afternoon through the early evening. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Dial.. 09/24/2019 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS WELL AS PARTS OF ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms with gusty winds and hail are possible over parts of southern Kansas/Missouri and northern Oklahoma/Arkansas, as well as across parts of Arizona on Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Split flow upper pattern will prevail Wednesday with amplifying dominant northern-stream trough from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. Farther south a cutoff upper low is forecast to remain nearly stationary near the northern Baja CA area. A cold front expected to extend from the upper Great Lakes into western KS by 12Z Wednesday will move southeast and should extend from the lower Great Lakes westward into northern OK and the TX Panhandle by the end of this period. ...Southern Kansas, northern Oklahoma through Southern Missouri and northern Arkansas... A few non-severe thunderstorms might be ongoing over the middle to lower MS Valley within zone of modest pre-frontal warm advection. A moist boundary layer with low 70s F dewpoints will reside in the warm sector, which in conjunction with modest 6.5 - 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates and diabatic warming of the surface layer should support 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE during the afternoon. A capping inversion might limit surface-based thunderstorm development much of the day along the front where low-level convergence will be weak and relatively shallow. However, a few storms might initiate along the cold front or any residual outflow boundaries by late afternoon or early evening from southeast KS and extreme northern OK into southwest MO. The warm sector will have been shunted south of the stronger winds aloft accompanying the amplifying northern-stream trough, with sfc-6 km vertical shear from 25-35 kt in frontal zone, supportive of mostly multicells. However, a couple of marginal supercell structures cannot be ruled out. Additional storms may develop during the evening within zone of increasing frontal forcing and isentropic ascent associated withe the strengthening low-level jet. A few of the storms could produce locally strong wind gusts and hail. Will maintain MRGL risk category this update given the weak shear environment, but a lower-end slight risk might be needed in day 1 updates. ...Central through southern Arizona... A feed of subtropical moisture will persist east of the upper low-center across eastern AZ, and this might promote areas of clouds and showers early in the period, limiting instability. Greater destabilization might occur from western through central AZ where dewpoints in the 60s F will support moderate instability (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) as the surface layer warms. At the current time, it appears that the greater destabilization potential will reside west of the belt of stronger winds aloft. Nevertheless, storms developing in this regime may become capable of producing a few wet microbursts from mid afternoon through the early evening. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Dial.. 09/24/2019 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS WELL AS PARTS OF ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms with gusty winds and hail are possible over parts of southern Kansas/Missouri and northern Oklahoma/Arkansas, as well as across parts of Arizona on Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Split flow upper pattern will prevail Wednesday with amplifying dominant northern-stream trough from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. Farther south a cutoff upper low is forecast to remain nearly stationary near the northern Baja CA area. A cold front expected to extend from the upper Great Lakes into western KS by 12Z Wednesday will move southeast and should extend from the lower Great Lakes westward into northern OK and the TX Panhandle by the end of this period. ...Southern Kansas, northern Oklahoma through Southern Missouri and northern Arkansas... A few non-severe thunderstorms might be ongoing over the middle to lower MS Valley within zone of modest pre-frontal warm advection. A moist boundary layer with low 70s F dewpoints will reside in the warm sector, which in conjunction with modest 6.5 - 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates and diabatic warming of the surface layer should support 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE during the afternoon. A capping inversion might limit surface-based thunderstorm development much of the day along the front where low-level convergence will be weak and relatively shallow. However, a few storms might initiate along the cold front or any residual outflow boundaries by late afternoon or early evening from southeast KS and extreme northern OK into southwest MO. The warm sector will have been shunted south of the stronger winds aloft accompanying the amplifying northern-stream trough, with sfc-6 km vertical shear from 25-35 kt in frontal zone, supportive of mostly multicells. However, a couple of marginal supercell structures cannot be ruled out. Additional storms may develop during the evening within zone of increasing frontal forcing and isentropic ascent associated withe the strengthening low-level jet. A few of the storms could produce locally strong wind gusts and hail. Will maintain MRGL risk category this update given the weak shear environment, but a lower-end slight risk might be needed in day 1 updates. ...Central through southern Arizona... A feed of subtropical moisture will persist east of the upper low-center across eastern AZ, and this might promote areas of clouds and showers early in the period, limiting instability. Greater destabilization might occur from western through central AZ where dewpoints in the 60s F will support moderate instability (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) as the surface layer warms. At the current time, it appears that the greater destabilization potential will reside west of the belt of stronger winds aloft. Nevertheless, storms developing in this regime may become capable of producing a few wet microbursts from mid afternoon through the early evening. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Dial.. 09/24/2019 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS WELL AS PARTS OF ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms with gusty winds and hail are possible over parts of southern Kansas/Missouri and northern Oklahoma/Arkansas, as well as across parts of Arizona on Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Split flow upper pattern will prevail Wednesday with amplifying dominant northern-stream trough from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. Farther south a cutoff upper low is forecast to remain nearly stationary near the northern Baja CA area. A cold front expected to extend from the upper Great Lakes into western KS by 12Z Wednesday will move southeast and should extend from the lower Great Lakes westward into northern OK and the TX Panhandle by the end of this period. ...Southern Kansas, northern Oklahoma through Southern Missouri and northern Arkansas... A few non-severe thunderstorms might be ongoing over the middle to lower MS Valley within zone of modest pre-frontal warm advection. A moist boundary layer with low 70s F dewpoints will reside in the warm sector, which in conjunction with modest 6.5 - 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates and diabatic warming of the surface layer should support 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE during the afternoon. A capping inversion might limit surface-based thunderstorm development much of the day along the front where low-level convergence will be weak and relatively shallow. However, a few storms might initiate along the cold front or any residual outflow boundaries by late afternoon or early evening from southeast KS and extreme northern OK into southwest MO. The warm sector will have been shunted south of the stronger winds aloft accompanying the amplifying northern-stream trough, with sfc-6 km vertical shear from 25-35 kt in frontal zone, supportive of mostly multicells. However, a couple of marginal supercell structures cannot be ruled out. Additional storms may develop during the evening within zone of increasing frontal forcing and isentropic ascent associated withe the strengthening low-level jet. A few of the storms could produce locally strong wind gusts and hail. Will maintain MRGL risk category this update given the weak shear environment, but a lower-end slight risk might be needed in day 1 updates. ...Central through southern Arizona... A feed of subtropical moisture will persist east of the upper low-center across eastern AZ, and this might promote areas of clouds and showers early in the period, limiting instability. Greater destabilization might occur from western through central AZ where dewpoints in the 60s F will support moderate instability (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) as the surface layer warms. At the current time, it appears that the greater destabilization potential will reside west of the belt of stronger winds aloft. Nevertheless, storms developing in this regime may become capable of producing a few wet microbursts from mid afternoon through the early evening. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Dial.. 09/24/2019 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS WELL AS PARTS OF ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms with gusty winds and hail are possible over parts of southern Kansas/Missouri and northern Oklahoma/Arkansas, as well as across parts of Arizona on Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Split flow upper pattern will prevail Wednesday with amplifying dominant northern-stream trough from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. Farther south a cutoff upper low is forecast to remain nearly stationary near the northern Baja CA area. A cold front expected to extend from the upper Great Lakes into western KS by 12Z Wednesday will move southeast and should extend from the lower Great Lakes westward into northern OK and the TX Panhandle by the end of this period. ...Southern Kansas, northern Oklahoma through Southern Missouri and northern Arkansas... A few non-severe thunderstorms might be ongoing over the middle to lower MS Valley within zone of modest pre-frontal warm advection. A moist boundary layer with low 70s F dewpoints will reside in the warm sector, which in conjunction with modest 6.5 - 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates and diabatic warming of the surface layer should support 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE during the afternoon. A capping inversion might limit surface-based thunderstorm development much of the day along the front where low-level convergence will be weak and relatively shallow. However, a few storms might initiate along the cold front or any residual outflow boundaries by late afternoon or early evening from southeast KS and extreme northern OK into southwest MO. The warm sector will have been shunted south of the stronger winds aloft accompanying the amplifying northern-stream trough, with sfc-6 km vertical shear from 25-35 kt in frontal zone, supportive of mostly multicells. However, a couple of marginal supercell structures cannot be ruled out. Additional storms may develop during the evening within zone of increasing frontal forcing and isentropic ascent associated withe the strengthening low-level jet. A few of the storms could produce locally strong wind gusts and hail. Will maintain MRGL risk category this update given the weak shear environment, but a lower-end slight risk might be needed in day 1 updates. ...Central through southern Arizona... A feed of subtropical moisture will persist east of the upper low-center across eastern AZ, and this might promote areas of clouds and showers early in the period, limiting instability. Greater destabilization might occur from western through central AZ where dewpoints in the 60s F will support moderate instability (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) as the surface layer warms. At the current time, it appears that the greater destabilization potential will reside west of the belt of stronger winds aloft. Nevertheless, storms developing in this regime may become capable of producing a few wet microbursts from mid afternoon through the early evening. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Dial.. 09/24/2019 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. Please see the previous discussion below. ..Wendt.. 09/24/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019/ ...Synopsis... An upper low over the Southwest will develop southward over northwestern Mexico today. Surface high pressure will remain over the northern Great Basin, while farther east a cold front will move eastward across the northern/central Plains. ...Portions of Northern California... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across the higher elevations of the North/East Bay Hills, Diablo Range, Northern Coast Mountains, and western slopes of the Northern Sierras and adjacent foothills as overnight RH recovery remains poor in conjunction with gusty surface winds. Later this afternoon, elevated fire weather conditions should spread to the lower elevations of the Sacramento Valley as sustained northerly surface winds of 15-20 mph develop in combination with reduced RH values of 10-20%. Locally elevated fire weather conditions will be possible again late tonight into early Wednesday morning at higher elevations as RH recoveries remain poor amidst occasionally breezy winds. ...Portions of Southern California... Elevated conditions will likely develop this morning across the mountains of Ventura, Los Angeles, and Santa Barbara Counties as a favorable surface pressure gradient supports strong/gusty offshore surface winds in areas with lowered RH values. Winds are forecast to gradually weaken later this morning and into the afternoon as upper-level support associated with the previously mentioned upper low shifts away from this area. Still, elevated conditions may persist as RH values continue to decrease as diurnal heating occurs. Some potential for elevated conditions could continue tonight into early Wednesday morning, mainly in the higher terrain, as RH values remain lowered in the presence of locally strong/gusty offshore winds. ...Portions of the Central High Plains... Downslope, post-frontal low-level flow will occur across parts of the central High Plains this afternoon. Although stronger mid-level winds should generally remain across the northern Rockies/Plains, some enhancement to the low-level flow should occur along and east of the Laramie Range in southeastern WY and adjacent far northern CO. Sustained west-northwesterly winds of 15-25 mph appear likely. These strong/gusty surface winds will likely combine with lowered RH values of 15-20% this afternoon as the boundary layer becomes well mixed. Latest fuel guidance suggests fine fuels remain receptive, so a small elevated area has been included across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. Please see the previous discussion below. ..Wendt.. 09/24/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019/ ...Synopsis... An upper low over the Southwest will develop southward over northwestern Mexico today. Surface high pressure will remain over the northern Great Basin, while farther east a cold front will move eastward across the northern/central Plains. ...Portions of Northern California... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across the higher elevations of the North/East Bay Hills, Diablo Range, Northern Coast Mountains, and western slopes of the Northern Sierras and adjacent foothills as overnight RH recovery remains poor in conjunction with gusty surface winds. Later this afternoon, elevated fire weather conditions should spread to the lower elevations of the Sacramento Valley as sustained northerly surface winds of 15-20 mph develop in combination with reduced RH values of 10-20%. Locally elevated fire weather conditions will be possible again late tonight into early Wednesday morning at higher elevations as RH recoveries remain poor amidst occasionally breezy winds. ...Portions of Southern California... Elevated conditions will likely develop this morning across the mountains of Ventura, Los Angeles, and Santa Barbara Counties as a favorable surface pressure gradient supports strong/gusty offshore surface winds in areas with lowered RH values. Winds are forecast to gradually weaken later this morning and into the afternoon as upper-level support associated with the previously mentioned upper low shifts away from this area. Still, elevated conditions may persist as RH values continue to decrease as diurnal heating occurs. Some potential for elevated conditions could continue tonight into early Wednesday morning, mainly in the higher terrain, as RH values remain lowered in the presence of locally strong/gusty offshore winds. ...Portions of the Central High Plains... Downslope, post-frontal low-level flow will occur across parts of the central High Plains this afternoon. Although stronger mid-level winds should generally remain across the northern Rockies/Plains, some enhancement to the low-level flow should occur along and east of the Laramie Range in southeastern WY and adjacent far northern CO. Sustained west-northwesterly winds of 15-25 mph appear likely. These strong/gusty surface winds will likely combine with lowered RH values of 15-20% this afternoon as the boundary layer becomes well mixed. Latest fuel guidance suggests fine fuels remain receptive, so a small elevated area has been included across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. Please see the previous discussion below. ..Wendt.. 09/24/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019/ ...Synopsis... An upper low over the Southwest will develop southward over northwestern Mexico today. Surface high pressure will remain over the northern Great Basin, while farther east a cold front will move eastward across the northern/central Plains. ...Portions of Northern California... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across the higher elevations of the North/East Bay Hills, Diablo Range, Northern Coast Mountains, and western slopes of the Northern Sierras and adjacent foothills as overnight RH recovery remains poor in conjunction with gusty surface winds. Later this afternoon, elevated fire weather conditions should spread to the lower elevations of the Sacramento Valley as sustained northerly surface winds of 15-20 mph develop in combination with reduced RH values of 10-20%. Locally elevated fire weather conditions will be possible again late tonight into early Wednesday morning at higher elevations as RH recoveries remain poor amidst occasionally breezy winds. ...Portions of Southern California... Elevated conditions will likely develop this morning across the mountains of Ventura, Los Angeles, and Santa Barbara Counties as a favorable surface pressure gradient supports strong/gusty offshore surface winds in areas with lowered RH values. Winds are forecast to gradually weaken later this morning and into the afternoon as upper-level support associated with the previously mentioned upper low shifts away from this area. Still, elevated conditions may persist as RH values continue to decrease as diurnal heating occurs. Some potential for elevated conditions could continue tonight into early Wednesday morning, mainly in the higher terrain, as RH values remain lowered in the presence of locally strong/gusty offshore winds. ...Portions of the Central High Plains... Downslope, post-frontal low-level flow will occur across parts of the central High Plains this afternoon. Although stronger mid-level winds should generally remain across the northern Rockies/Plains, some enhancement to the low-level flow should occur along and east of the Laramie Range in southeastern WY and adjacent far northern CO. Sustained west-northwesterly winds of 15-25 mph appear likely. These strong/gusty surface winds will likely combine with lowered RH values of 15-20% this afternoon as the boundary layer becomes well mixed. Latest fuel guidance suggests fine fuels remain receptive, so a small elevated area has been included across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. Please see the previous discussion below. ..Wendt.. 09/24/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019/ ...Synopsis... An upper low over the Southwest will develop southward over northwestern Mexico today. Surface high pressure will remain over the northern Great Basin, while farther east a cold front will move eastward across the northern/central Plains. ...Portions of Northern California... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across the higher elevations of the North/East Bay Hills, Diablo Range, Northern Coast Mountains, and western slopes of the Northern Sierras and adjacent foothills as overnight RH recovery remains poor in conjunction with gusty surface winds. Later this afternoon, elevated fire weather conditions should spread to the lower elevations of the Sacramento Valley as sustained northerly surface winds of 15-20 mph develop in combination with reduced RH values of 10-20%. Locally elevated fire weather conditions will be possible again late tonight into early Wednesday morning at higher elevations as RH recoveries remain poor amidst occasionally breezy winds. ...Portions of Southern California... Elevated conditions will likely develop this morning across the mountains of Ventura, Los Angeles, and Santa Barbara Counties as a favorable surface pressure gradient supports strong/gusty offshore surface winds in areas with lowered RH values. Winds are forecast to gradually weaken later this morning and into the afternoon as upper-level support associated with the previously mentioned upper low shifts away from this area. Still, elevated conditions may persist as RH values continue to decrease as diurnal heating occurs. Some potential for elevated conditions could continue tonight into early Wednesday morning, mainly in the higher terrain, as RH values remain lowered in the presence of locally strong/gusty offshore winds. ...Portions of the Central High Plains... Downslope, post-frontal low-level flow will occur across parts of the central High Plains this afternoon. Although stronger mid-level winds should generally remain across the northern Rockies/Plains, some enhancement to the low-level flow should occur along and east of the Laramie Range in southeastern WY and adjacent far northern CO. Sustained west-northwesterly winds of 15-25 mph appear likely. These strong/gusty surface winds will likely combine with lowered RH values of 15-20% this afternoon as the boundary layer becomes well mixed. Latest fuel guidance suggests fine fuels remain receptive, so a small elevated area has been included across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will threaten parts of the central Plains and Midwest today. Large hail, damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible. ...IA to WI... A strong upper trough and associated midlevel jet will move into the northern Plains today, with height falls and large-scale forcing overspreading parts of MN/IA/WI/Upper MI. A surface cold front extends from western MN into eastern SD, and will track eastward into IA later today. This boundary will be the focus for afternoon thunderstorm development. Visible satellite imagery shows strong heating is occurring in this region. Dewpoints are only in the 50s to lower 60s, but are forecast to climb into the mid/upper 60s by mid-late afternoon as advection occurs from the southwest. This will result in a corridor of strong instability across much of IA into southeast MN and western WI. Initial storm mode will likely be supercellular, given strong deep-layer vertical shear, relatively steep midlevel lapse rates, and high CAPE values. Very large hail will be main threat with these storms, although damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible. The main tornado threat appears to be over parts of western/central WI, but is contingent on robust low-level moisture return depicted in model guidance. Storms will likely congeal into linear segments by early evening and spread eastward into WI with a continued risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. ...KS... The aforementioned cold front extends southward into KS, where ample low-level moisture and strong heating will be present today. Large-scale forcing is much weaker this far south, but weak frontal convergence and a weak cap will likely result in widely scattered storms over central KS this afternoon. Sufficient vertical shear suggests rotating storms are possible with a risk of large hail and gusty winds. The primary severe risk with this activity should diminish by mid-evening. ..Hart/Bentley.. 09/24/2019 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will threaten parts of the central Plains and Midwest today. Large hail, damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible. ...IA to WI... A strong upper trough and associated midlevel jet will move into the northern Plains today, with height falls and large-scale forcing overspreading parts of MN/IA/WI/Upper MI. A surface cold front extends from western MN into eastern SD, and will track eastward into IA later today. This boundary will be the focus for afternoon thunderstorm development. Visible satellite imagery shows strong heating is occurring in this region. Dewpoints are only in the 50s to lower 60s, but are forecast to climb into the mid/upper 60s by mid-late afternoon as advection occurs from the southwest. This will result in a corridor of strong instability across much of IA into southeast MN and western WI. Initial storm mode will likely be supercellular, given strong deep-layer vertical shear, relatively steep midlevel lapse rates, and high CAPE values. Very large hail will be main threat with these storms, although damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible. The main tornado threat appears to be over parts of western/central WI, but is contingent on robust low-level moisture return depicted in model guidance. Storms will likely congeal into linear segments by early evening and spread eastward into WI with a continued risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. ...KS... The aforementioned cold front extends southward into KS, where ample low-level moisture and strong heating will be present today. Large-scale forcing is much weaker this far south, but weak frontal convergence and a weak cap will likely result in widely scattered storms over central KS this afternoon. Sufficient vertical shear suggests rotating storms are possible with a risk of large hail and gusty winds. The primary severe risk with this activity should diminish by mid-evening. ..Hart/Bentley.. 09/24/2019 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2019 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will threaten parts of the central Plains and Midwest today. Large hail, damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible. ...IA to WI... A strong upper trough and associated midlevel jet will move into the northern Plains today, with height falls and large-scale forcing overspreading parts of MN/IA/WI/Upper MI. A surface cold front extends from western MN into eastern SD, and will track eastward into IA later today. This boundary will be the focus for afternoon thunderstorm development. Visible satellite imagery shows strong heating is occurring in this region. Dewpoints are only in the 50s to lower 60s, but are forecast to climb into the mid/upper 60s by mid-late afternoon as advection occurs from the southwest. This will result in a corridor of strong instability across much of IA into southeast MN and western WI. Initial storm mode will likely be supercellular, given strong deep-layer vertical shear, relatively steep midlevel lapse rates, and high CAPE values. Very large hail will be main threat with these storms, although damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible. The main tornado threat appears to be over parts of western/central WI, but is contingent on robust low-level moisture return depicted in model guidance. Storms will likely congeal into linear segments by early evening and spread eastward into WI with a continued risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. ...KS... The aforementioned cold front extends southward into KS, where ample low-level moisture and strong heating will be present today. Large-scale forcing is much weaker this far south, but weak frontal convergence and a weak cap will likely result in widely scattered storms over central KS this afternoon. Sufficient vertical shear suggests rotating storms are possible with a risk of large hail and gusty winds. The primary severe risk with this activity should diminish by mid-evening. ..Hart/Bentley.. 09/24/2019 Read more