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The Skiles 429 Fire is located northeast of Clayton along the Oklahoma border in Union County. The fire is burning in steep canyons and very rough terrain. The fire started April 29, 2022 at approximately 3:15 p.m. The cause is under investigation.Individuals sensitive to wildfire smoke should take precautions and use the New Mexico Department of Health 5-3-1 Visibility Method to determine if it’s safe to be outside. Learn more

The Nogal Canyon Fire that started on April 12, 2022, burned 6 primary residences and 8 outbuildings. The fire was located about 12 miles west of Capitan, NM. Evacuations have now been lifted for this fire. The fire has burned 412 acres of grass, brush and trees. Firefighters continue to identify and put out hot spots on the

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0936 AM CDT Mon May 02 2022 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... The ongoing forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on recent rainfall reports, morning surface observations, and trends in the latest hi-res guidance. Fire weather concerns remain most likely across central to southern NM this afternoon where RH values are already near or below 15% and westerly winds are increase to 15-20 mph. To the east across the TX Panhandle, MRMS rainfall estimates show several swaths of 0.10+ inches of rainfall from last night's thunderstorms. While critical conditions are possible across much of the TX Panhandle (including along and north of the I-40 corridor and possibly into northwest OK), the Elevated risk area is limited to the local rainfall minimums where fuels are likely still receptive. A cold front is noted across eastern CO/western KS in morning surface observations, and will likely reach the I-40 corridor with gusty northerly winds by around 00 UTC. ..Moore.. 05/02/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Mon May 02 2022/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move into the southern Plains today. Farther west, another shortwave trough will move into the Great Basin. At the surface, a cyclone will deepen in the Texas Panhandle before moving northeastward through the day. A cold front will eventually move southward into the High Plains region. ...New Mexico... Despite weaker mid-level winds, critical fire weather is possible during the afternoon due to the strong surface pressure gradient. Westerly winds will reach 20+ mph in some parts of central and southern New Mexico. The airmass will remain quite dry and RH will fall to 10-15%. ...Texas Panhandle into the Permian Basin... Critical meteorological conditions are possible in the Panhandle and South Plains. However, scattered thunderstorms on Sunday evening have produced rainfall across the region, particularly in the Panhandle. Highlights have been adjusted to account for rain-impacted fuels. Localized fire weather concerns are still possible in those areas, however. ...Southern Nevada... With the approaching trough, southerly/southwesterly winds will increase ahead of a Pacific boundary. Fuels that have become critically dry will promote large fire potential. Winds of 15-20 mph will be common, but isolated higher speeds are possible. RH should generally range from 15-20% during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon May 2 14:38:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon May 2 14:38:02 UTC 2022.

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0746 AM CDT MON MAY 02 2022 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central and southern Great Plains this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Northern half of Oklahoma Far southern Kansas * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... Intense severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of northern Oklahoma and far southern Kansas, mainly between about 3 to 11 PM CDT. Tornadoes are likely, a few of which could be strong, along with widespread damaging winds and very large hail. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Grams.. 05/02/2022 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 AM CDT Mon May 02 2022 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Intense severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of northern Oklahoma and far southern Kansas, mainly between about 3 to 11 PM CDT. Tornadoes are likely, a few of which could be strong, along with widespread damaging winds and very large hail. ...Synopsis.. A shortwave trough over CO with a compact but strong mid-level jetlet to its south will shift east across the KS/OK area through this evening. Attendant surface cyclone over southeast CO should deepen slightly as it progresses into northwest and north-central OK. The dryline will arc south-southwest from this cyclone across western OK into the Edwards Plateau. Uncertainty exists on exactly how far north the surface warm front will advance with substantial differences between the 06Z NAM and 09Z RAP, but it should approach the KS/OK border east into southern MO. A sharp cold front will plunge south on the backside of the cyclone as pronounced surface ridging builds down the High Plains. ...KS/OK to the Ozarks... Initial supercell development is expected towards early afternoon across west-central to southwest KS immediately ahead of the mid-level wave where a bent-back plume of low-level moisture persists. Severe hail should be the main threat, especially as convection gets undercut from west to east through the rest of the afternoon, but a tornado threat will also exist as convection impinges on higher-quality moisture toward south-central KS. More intense supercells will likely develop immediately ahead of the surface cyclone near the south-central KS/north-central OK border area by 21Z. This activity should largely ride along the surface warm front zone within a vorticity-rich environment, but additional cells may develop along the dryline towards central OK through early evening where large buoyancy of 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE will be prevalent. Several hourly HRRR runs along with 00Z HRW-ARW and NSSL-ARW suggest classic intense supercell to bow echo evolution will occur from north-central to northeast OK. This lends confidence in amplifying severe threat probabilities. Significant tornadoes and very large hail will be most likely in the early supercell stage, with the latter transitioning to a significant damaging wind threat in a bowing QLCS towards the Ozark Plateau. This emerging MCS should eventually weaken towards late evening into the overnight through a combination of increasing MLCIN to its south along the Red River and weaker instability east of the Ozarks. ...Coastal Carolinas... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the coastal sea breeze this afternoon. Moderate buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear will support a threat for marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds in the strongest storms. ...Southern ID... Convective signals are somewhat muted in this region but a conditionally supportive environment should develop this afternoon immediately ahead of a vigorous shortwave trough approaching from OR. Meager surface-based buoyancy may develop amid favorable deep-layer shear to yield a threat of small to marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts. ..Grams.. 05/02/2022 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun May 1 14:31:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun May 1 14:31:01 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 AM CDT Sun May 01 2022 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WESTERN PORTIONS OF TX AND FAR EASTERN NM... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN VA AND NORTHERN NC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the southern High Plains into central Texas, beginning around mid-afternoon and persisting through tonight. Several tornadoes and very large hail will be the primary hazards. ...Southern Great Plains... High-quality Gulf moisture characterized by mean mixing ratios around 16 g/kg per 12Z soundings is prevalent across much of south TX. This moisture plume will be advected northwest in advance of a substantial shortwave trough moving east from the Great Basin to the southern Rockies. Scattered to numerous supercells are expected to develop from mid-late afternoon within the upslope flow regime along the eastern NM/west TX border area into the Trans-Pecos. 40-50 kt effective shear will support significant severe hail as the primary initial hazard. The tornado threat should also increase into the early evening as low-level hodographs enlarge somewhat coincident with further boundary-layer moistening. More isolated supercell development should also occur along the west/east-oriented warm front bisecting central TX with an attendant large hail/tornado threat. With time this evening, several clusters with embedded supercells should congeal into one or more MCSs and spread east from west TX towards central TX and southwest OK. A mix of all severe hazards appear possible, but overall coverage will diminish overnight as instability wanes. ...VA/NC to the Upper OH Valley... Remnants of a small MCS over eastern KY/TN are progged by latest guidance to spread east of the central Appalachians and emerge across parts of the southern VA/NC Piedmont later today. While surface dew points are currently only around the low 50s in this region, some low-level moistening combined with robust boundary-layer heating from the Carolinas into southern VA, should support an increase in convective intensity this afternoon. Deep-layer shear and mid-level lapse rates will be modest, but the steepening low-level lapse rates could support a swath of strong gusts producing scattered tree damage. In the wake of the early-day MCS, confidence is low in the degree of convective coverage across the Upper OH Valley vicinity later this afternoon. Guidance does suggest deep-layer shear will be stronger owing to the closer proximity to the mid-level jet across the Mid-MS to Lower OH Valley. However, forecast soundings indicate some warming and especially drying near 700 mb. In addition, low-level convergence will likely remain weak south of the OH/PA border area. For these reasons the severe threat appears rather conditional west of the Appalachians. ..Grams/Mosier.. 05/01/2022 Read more

All districts of the Lincoln National Forest enacted Stage 2 fire restrictions on April 28, a week after beginning Stage 1 fire restrictions. No fires, fireworks or smoking is permitted in the forest. Carlsbad Current Argus (N.M.), April 29, 2022

Public lands in New Mexico’s Eddy, Lea, Chaves, DeBaca, Guadalupe, Quay, Roosevelt and Lincoln counties were placed under strict fire restrictions by the Bureau of Land Management. The open fire ban will remain until further notice. Carlsbad Current Argus (N.M.), April 29, 2022

The Cooks Peak Fire is located north of Ocate, NM in Mora County near the Colfax County

4/30/22 evening update:  Fire 100% contained.4/30/22 morning update:  Fire remains at 90% containment, crews released, two BLM engines remain in mop-up operations today.4/29/22 evening update: Change in containment, fire now at 90% containment.Change in containment, fire now at 68% containment.Change in containment, fire now at 50% containment. There was no change in acreage or level of containment overnight.The fire was mapped at 112 acres, 30% containment. No visible smoke at this time. Crews will continue to monitor fire and work to secure the fire line completely, address hotspots, and toward full containment. Gusty winds, 30-40 mph expected today.  BACKGROUND: Fire reported near Bisbee, AZ at approximately 11 p.m. on April 25. Local fire departments, BLM, Cochise County Emergency Management, Department of Forestry and Fire Management, and Forest Service responding. Southeastern Arizona Type 3 Incident Management Team takes over fire at 1700, 4/26. Fire is human caused - the...

This spring Monongahela National Forest officials plan to conduct a prescribed burn on 557 acres of National Forest System land in the Big Mountain Unit 1 area, west of Cherry Grove in Pendleton County.Why do we burn?Reintroducing fire into the forest will:Restore historic fire regimesImprove wildlife habitatEnhance forest structure and age diversityImprove oak regenerationControl tree diseases and insectsReduce hazardous fuel levelsHow do we manage a prescribed burn?Fire managers prepare a burn plan for each prescribed burn describing the appropriate conditions needed to conduct the burn safely and achieve the desired results. Burn plans consider public safety, protection of private property, staffing and equipment needs, temperature, humidity, wind, moisture of the vegetation, and smoke dispersal. Appropriate conditions must be met before igniting prescribed burns. A control line is established around each burn area before ignition, using hand tools and other equipment, roads,...

No watches are valid as of Sat Apr 30 14:02:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Apr 30 14:02:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022 Valid 301300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MID-MS VALLEY/MIDWEST TO THE ARK-LA-TEX... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are anticipated this afternoon and evening across portions of the Mid-Mississippi Valley/Midwest towards the Ark-La-Tex. Several tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail will be possible. ...Synopsis... Closed mid/upper low over the Mid-MO Valley will drift into the Upper MS Valley through early Sunday, with an attendant occluded surface cyclone taking a similar track. The T-intersection of the surface occlusion is expected to move across the IA/IL/WI border vicinity this afternoon and across far southern WI this evening. The surface cold front will arc to the south-southwest from roughly the Saint Louis area to the Ark-La-Tex in the late afternoon. Trailing portion will then arc west-southwest, bisecting central TX, and become quasi-stationary by evening. ...Most of IL/IN and southern WI... Abundant cloud debris persists north of decaying thunderstorm clusters across southern MO. Further weakening of this convective activity should yield thinning cloudiness later this morning and a period of more substantial insolation. The next lobe of deep-layer ascent attendant to the closed low should will overspread the surface cold frontal zone by early afternoon. At least a broken arc of thunderstorms should develop although surface-based instability will likely be weak initially. It is plausible that further boundary-layer destabilization through a combination of low-level moist advection from the Ozarks and pockets of stronger insolation could eventually boost MLCAPE towards 1000 J/kg in a narrow corridor ahead of the emerging convective band. While weaknesses in the hodograph are evident above 500 mb, low-level hodographs across the northern half of IL into southern WI will be favorable for updraft rotation. This setup might yield a few semi-discrete supercells embedded within the broader convective band with tornadoes as the main hazard. However, guidance that more aggressively supports this scenario suggest that mean mixing ratios will approach 12 g/kg with 62-64 F surface dew points, while other guidance is not quite as moist in the boundary layer. Available 12Z observed soundings suggest the more aggressive guidance may be overdone. Given this, along with aforementioned thermodynamic uncertainties, will defer on a tornado-driven category 3/ENH upgrade. Otherwise, scattered damaging winds and severe hail will also be possible within the convective band as it spreads east into IN, with activity farther north outpacing the instability plume during the evening. ...Southeast MO/far southern IL to the Ark-La-Tex and central TX... With morning convection from southern MO to southeast OK expected to further decay, surface-based destabilization will become pronounced from TX and across the Ark-La-Tex region where richer boundary-layer moisture will reside. Adequate low-level convergence near the cold front should aid in isolated to scattered thunderstorms in the mid to late afternoon, persisting into the early to mid evening. Large hail should be the primary overall threat, especially with western extent, while damaging winds and a couple tornadoes will also be possible across the Mid-South region. ..Grams/Mosier.. 04/30/2022 Read more

Very dry soil moisture conditions continued in Central Texas. Soil moisture levels were very short. Drought was exacerbated by the relentless heavy winds and warm temperatures. Wheat diseases were being held in check by the dry conditions. Some replanted corn was showing twisting and slow development due to soil dryness. Some cotton acres were not yet planted or needed replanting due to dry conditions, but activity will likely follow any decent rainfall. Pastures and winter grains were grazed down and increased supplemental feeding for livestock was reported. Overall crop, rangeland and pasture conditions were very poor to poor. Stock tanks were dropping. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), April 26, 2022 Nearly all counties in Central Texas reported very short soil moisture and warm, windy and dry conditions. Soil moisture continued to decline, and moisture deficits continued to expand. Cotton plantings slowed, but some replanting was done due to patchy germination under dry topsoil conditions. Some corn was replanted. Overall, crop growth was slowing due to dryness. Wheat was now mostly headed and into early flowering stage, and yields could be impacted if rainfall does not arrive soon. Stock tank levels declined substantially over the past few weeks, and algae was becoming more problematic with increasing temperatures. Livestock were still on feed as warm-season grasses were slow to develop in pastures. Overall, rangeland and pasture conditions were poor. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), April 19, 2022 Soil moisture levels were mostly very short. Windy conditions and above-normal temperatures with nearly zero precipitation were stressing the heading stage of winter wheat and corn. Pasture grasses were developing slowly under dry conditions. The heat, wind and dry conditions were holding disease off flag-leaf wheat, but some leaf rust and leaf stripe were seen in fields, mostly on the lower leaves. Cotton planting was being held up a bit until some precipitation improves topsoil. Overall, rangeland and pasture conditions were poor. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), April 12, 2022 Most counties in Central Texas reported short soil moisture levels. Several rangeland and pasture fires occurred. Corn fields emerged nicely given the dry conditions at planting. Limited acres of cotton were planted as most producers waited on moisture and better conditions. Cattle were still receiving supplemental feed. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), April 5, 2022 Soil moisture was very short in nearly all counties of Central Texas. Crop, rangeland and pasture conditions were poor in nearly all counties. Crops were in poor condition due to drought. Dryland wheat and oats were not doing well and may fail. Livestock were in fair condition and being supplemented with feed and hay. Fires were being reported daily. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), March 29, 2022 Dry conditions continued to dominate Central Texas. Soil moisture levels were very short in most counties. Strong winds brought concerns about fire conditions. Limited rain last week slowed planting down for a day, but future rain forecasts looked promising. Wheat was in good condition but could use some precipitation. Cattle remained in good condition with producers still feeding hay. Stock tanks were getting lower and lower with the limited rainfall and low runoff totals. Rangeland and pasture conditions were generally poor in most counties. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), March 22, 2022 Dry conditions continued in Central Texas with nearly all counties reporting short soil moisture levels. Wheat continued to hang on and looked better. Cattle remained in fair to good condition with producers continuing to feed hay, but winter forages were limited by drought. Producers were concerned about hay supplies if rains do not arrive to push forage growth. Stock tank levels continued to decline. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), March 15, 2022 Dry conditions persisted in Central Texas. More than half the district reported short soil moisture levels. Winter wheat and oats were not maturing or growing well due to drought. The prediction for a drier weather pattern and stronger cotton prices may shift some acres away from corn. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), March 8, 2022