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Rainfall and warmer temperatures improved conditions in some areas of East Texas. Vegetable producers started irrigating to make up for the lack of rainfall. Subsoil and topsoil conditions were short to adequate. Livestock were doing fair to good with supplemental feeding continuing. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), April 26, 2022 Drought conditions in East Texas lessened some, but much more rainfall was needed to improve soil moisture levels. Livestock were doing fair to good with supplemental feeding taking place. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), April 5, 2022 Recent rainfall in East Texas relieved drought conditions a little, but warmer temperatures and heavy winds were drying soils. Supplemental feeding decreased as cool-season forages increased productivity following recent rains. Livestock were in fair to good condition with some diet supplementation taking place. Subsoil and topsoil conditions were adequate. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), March 29, 2022 East Texas received rainfall, but most counties still needed much more. Pasture and rangeland conditions were very poor to poor. Subsoil and topsoil conditions were short to adequate. Grass growth was slow, and producers continued to provide supplemental feed to cattle. Some producers were culling beef cattle herds. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), March 22, 2022 East Texas remained in desperate need of rainfall. Subsoil and topsoil conditions ranged from short to adequate. High winds dried out any recent moisture received. Houston County reported extremely high fire danger. Ponds and creeks remained low. Cool-season forages continued to be far below normal production due to dry conditions. Pasture and rangeland conditions varied from very poor to good in some areas. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), March 8, 2022 Drought stress in East Texas eased with recent rain, but some counties, such as Cherokee, Houston and Smith, still desperately needed rain. Ponds and creeks remained low. Pasture and rangeland conditions were very poor to fair. Livestock continued to receive supplemental feed. AgriLife (College Station, Texas), March 2, 2022 Some areas of East Texas received much-needed rainfall, while others were still left dry. The lack of moisture was hurting winter pasture growth. Pasture and rangeland conditions were very poor. Subsoil and topsoil conditions were short to adequate. Livestock were in fair to good condition with supplemental feeding taking place. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Feb 24, 2022 Drought conditions continued across most of East Texas. Subsoil and topsoil conditions were adequate to short. Ponds and creeks were low. Much more rainfall was needed to relieve current conditions. Winter forages were performing very poorly compared to a normal year. Pasture and rangeland conditions were very poor. Cattle market prices were up from last week, but head numbers remained low due to weather. Livestock were in fair to good condition with supplemental feeding taking place. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Feb 15, 2022 East Texas pasture and rangeland conditions were very poor to fair. Subsoil and topsoil conditions were short to adequate. Winter forages were still poor in many areas. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Feb 8, 2022 More rain is needed across East Texas. Many counties have had little to no rain for extended periods. Pasture and rangeland conditions were poor to very poor. Subsoil and topsoil conditions were short to adequate. Winter pastures needed more moisture to continue growth. Livestock were doing fair to good with some supplementation taking place. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Feb 1, 2022

Dry conditions continued in Southwest Texas. Some counties received scattered showers ranging from trace amounts up to half an inch. Corn, sorghum and cotton needed rain soon to continue growth. Wheat needed rain as well. Rangeland and pasture conditions were poor. Livestock and wildlife diets were being heavily supplemented. Wildlife, particularly white-tail deer, were in thin condition. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), April 26, 2022 Pasture and rangeland conditions continued to decline for most of the area. Weather conditions continued to be dry and hot. Fire hazards were extremely high. Irrigated crops looked good, and producers continued to adjust herd numbers according to the continued drought. Supplemental feeding of livestock continued. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), April 19, 2022 Weather conditions continued to be dry throughout Southwest Texas. Rangeland and non-irrigated pastures continued to decline. Fire danger remained extremely high, and 1,500 acres were reported burned. Hay fields were being irrigated. Supplemental feeding of livestock continued. Producers continued to cull herds. Deer looked thin. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), April 12, 2022 Dry, windy conditions continued across most of Southwest Texas with no measurable rainfall reported. Rangeland and pasture conditions continued to decline with higher temperatures and lack of moisture. Multiple wildfires were reported across the district, including 7,000 acres reported burned in Kinney County. Winter wheat and corn under irrigation looked good. Supplemental feeding of livestock continued. Producers were culling herds due to ongoing drought conditions. Livestock markets remained steady to high. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), April 5, 2022 No measurable rainfall was reported in Southwest Texas. Risk of fires increased as low moisture and windy conditions continued. Rangeland and pasture conditions were in short supply of adequate forage. Wheat looked good under irrigation. Hay producers began irrigating. Producers provided heavy supplemental feed rations and culled livestock inventories. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), March 29, 2022 Very dry conditions were persistent with no rainfall reported. Dry conditions increased the likelihood of wildfire. Pasture and rangeland conditions were steadily decreasing without precipitation. Livestock were in fair condition and supplemental feeding continued for both livestock and wildlife. Wildlife looked thin. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), March 22, 2022 Very dry and windy conditions continued across Southwest Texas, and fire danger increased. Pasture and rangeland conditions continued to decline with a lack of moisture. Wheat conditions were poor due to lack of moisture. Some producers reported deeper culling of cattle herds. Producers continued to provide heavy supplemental rations for livestock and wildlife. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), March 15, 2022 Dry conditions continued in Southwest Texas with little to no rainfall reported. Warmer weather caused some cool-season forages to green up, but growth was slowed by the lack of moisture. Poor pasture and rangeland conditions reflected the absence of rainfall. Wheat under irrigation looked good. Producers continued to provide supplemental feed for livestock and wildlife. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), March 8, 2022 No measurable rainfall fell in Southwest Texas, where rangelands were extremely dry, and pastures were grazed. Warm-season plants were emerging, but the lack of subsoil moisture was slowing growth for seedlings and warm-season perennials coming out of dormancy. Winter wheat and oats were in poor condition. Supplemental feeding of livestock and wildlife continued. AgriLife (College Station, Texas), March 2, 2022 Dry and windy weather conditions continued across the district. Fire dangers increased with dry vegetation and lack of moisture. Pastures continued to decline with little to no winter weeds due to drought conditions. Wheat under irrigation was in good condition. Livestock were in fair condition and supplemental feeding continued. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Feb 24, 2022 Most of Southwest Texas remained dry, and more moisture is needed. Winter forages planted for grazing were in poor to fair condition. Rangeland and pasture conditions were fair, but stocking rates were reduced due to dry conditions. Livestock and wildlife were being heavily supplemented, and water availability was being monitored closely. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Feb 15, 2022 Dry conditions continued in Southwest Texas, but the recent precipitation was very welcome. Pasture and rangeland conditions were poor to fair due to the lack of moisture. Winter wheat and oats were in poor condition. Producers continued to heavily supplement livestock and wildlife. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Feb 8, 2022 Conditions were dry in Southwest Texas, and rangeland and pasture conditions remained poor. Winter wheat under irrigation looked relatively good, while dryland wheat was struggling. Oats were not adding new growth. Producers were providing heavy amounts of supplemental feed to livestock and wildlife. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Feb 1, 2022 Pasture and rangeland conditions continued to decline with the lack of moisture. Producers continued supplemental feeding of both livestock and wildlife. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Jan 25, 2022

Most areas of South Texas reported very short moisture levels. Fire dangers remained due to dry conditions. Scattered rains delivered scant moisture. Crop and rangeland conditions were very poor. Most dryland sorghum fields had been abandoned. Irrigated row crops, including corn, sorghum, cotton and soybeans were receiving water. Dryland cotton emergence was spotty. Pest and disease issues were very light. Cattle and wildlife continued to suffer due to lack of forage. Some producers were reporting fair rangeland and pasture conditions and summer grass growth. Cattle producers continued to sell calves at lighter weights and cull their herds. There were reports of herd liquidations. Producers continued to haul hay and provide supplements, and some were hauling water. Sale barns were reporting average sale volumes and steady prices. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), April 26, 2022 Northern and eastern parts of the district reported very short moisture levels, while southern and western areas reported short soil moisture. Some planted sorghum fields were abandoned. Cotton and sorghum fields were showing spotty emergence. Irrigated corn fields looked moisture stressed. Some farmers were preparing to irrigate as further restrictions by water districts were likely around the corner. Pasture and rangeland conditions were mostly poor and continued to decline. Livestock and wildlife producers were providing heavy supplemental feed for their animals. Producers were hauling hay, cubes and water. Hay and feed prices continued to rise. Cattle prices were steady as producers continued to reduce herd numbers. Increased numbers of deer were being hit along roadsides as they sought forages. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), April 19, 2022 Northern parts of South Texas reported very short moisture levels, while southern areas reported very short to adequate moisture. Eastern and western areas reported short soil moisture. Irrigation pivots were running on wheat and row crops, including corn and sorghum. Some planted sorghum fields were already abandoned. Emergence in some planted sorghum and cotton fields was spotty. Some Bermuda grass fields were being watered. Those fields were green and nearing their first cutting. Rangeland and pasture conditions were poor in most areas, while a few areas were reporting fair to good rangeland conditions. Wildfire potential was high. Some producers were dealing with small brush fires, but Duval County reported around 11,000 acres burned. Stock tanks were low. Producers were hauling hay, and some were hauling water. Hay supplies were declining, with bales around $60-$80 each. Cattle producers were culling cows and calves deeper. Wildlife foraging increased along roadsides. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), April 12, 2022 Northern and eastern parts of South Texas reported very short moisture levels while western and southern areas reported short to adequate soil moisture. Conditions were windy and dry, and temperatures were rising. Farmers were starting to dry-plant fields before insurance deadlines pass. Rangeland and pasture conditions were very poor across most of the district. Ranchers were providing heavy supplemental rations to cattle. Producers continued to cull herds, and some were hauling water. Some water wells were running dry, and stock tanks were low. Coastal Bermuda grass was being irrigated. Hay supplies were declining, and feed and hay prices were rising. Cattle prices at market remained steady, but body condition scores were declining in some areas. Wildlife deaths along roadsides were climbing due to lack of forage and browse beyond road ditches. Fire potential was very high due to dry conditions and winds, and some fires were reported. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), April 5, 2022 Most areas of South Texas reported short soil moisture levels, but some parts of the district reported very short or adequate soil moisture conditions. Most farmers continued to wait for significant rainfall before planting, but some had already planted corn and sorghum and were preparing to plant cotton. Some planted sorghum acres failed to create stands. Sunflowers, corn and grain sorghum looked good in some areas but will need rainfall soon. Some corn was under irrigation. Rangeland and pasture conditions were poor. Ranchers continued to provide heavy rations of supplemental feed to livestock. More producers were looking for hay as supplies continued to dwindle. Feed and hay prices continued to rise. Stock tanks were low, and some producers were hauling water. Some producers will be forced to cull deeper if drought conditions persist. Cattle prices were steady for all classes, and sale volumes were normal. Some hay fields were being irrigated. Fire activity was rising across the district, with more than 4,000 acres reported burned in two counties. Fires have caused widespread damage to ranching operations. Wildlife were browsing along roadsides. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), March 29, 2022 Northern, eastern and western parts of South Texas reported very short to short moisture levels while southern areas reported adequate moisture. Crop fields were being irrigated. Rangeland and pasture conditions continued to decline, and producers continued to provide hay and feed. Stock tanks were low, and some producers were hauling water. Beef cattle markets saw high volumes as producers continued to cull herds. Cull cow and bull prices were high. Body condition scores continued to decline. Several fires were reported. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), March 22, 2022 Fieldwork continued in South Texas, but most growers were delaying planting until rains improve soil moisture levels. Soil moisture levels were very short to short in the northern, eastern and western areas of the district and mostly adequate in southern parts. Pastures and rangelands were bare in many areas. Ranchers continued to provide heavy supplemental feed rations and cull herds. Stock tanks were low. Cattle sale volumes were above average with reports of feeder cattle prices dropping $20 per hundredweight. Pastures and rangelands were greening up some in areas that received moisture. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), March 15, 2022 Soil moisture levels in South Texas ranged from very short to adequate, but dry, windy conditions prevailed. Conditions were extremely dry in some areas. Farmers planted some corn, but many were holding off on grain sorghum due to very dry conditions and lack of soil moisture. Producers continued to provide supplemental feed to livestock and were selling cattle due to drought. Wildlife were browsing along roadsides. Rangeland and pasture conditions continue to decline. Stock tanks were declining, and some were dry. Hay prices were $60-$80 per bale. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), March 8, 2022 Northern and eastern parts of South Texas were very short on moisture while western and southern areas received short to adequate moisture. Irrigated food plots of oats looked good, but non-irrigated were no longer growing. Farmers in some areas were hesitant about planting because soils were powder dry. In other areas, farmers were slowly planting according to the amount of soil moisture available in fields. Livestock producers were providing heavy amounts of supplemental feed, marketing calves and culling cows in drier areas. Many pastures have little to no grass. Reports of fires increased, and ungrazed pastures pose a fire danger. Stock tank levels were fair. Areas with more moisture reported mixed pasture conditions with grasses and forbs emerging from dormancy. AgriLife (College Station, Texas), March 2, 2022 Soil moisture levels in northern, western and eastern parts of South Texas remained very short. Field conditions were deteriorating. Wind speeds increased and fire hazards were high. A few fires were reported. One fire consumed more than 200 bales of hay. Rangeland and pasture conditions were mostly poor. Livestock and wildlife were receiving heavy rations of supplemental feed. Feed and hay were in higher demand. Ranchers were selling calves at lighter weights, but prices were steady. Coastal Bermuda grass remained dormant but was being irrigated. Producers in southern areas of the region with more moisture were reporting decent pasture conditions and good body scores in cattle. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Feb 24, 2022 Northern, eastern and western parts of South Texas reported very short to short soil moisture levels while southern areas reported adequate moisture. Conditions were drier than normal. Fields were dusty and dry. Producers were expressing skepticism about spring planting without significant moisture. Pastures looked dry and dormant, and livestock producers were providing heavy supplemental feed. Stock tanks were low. Cattle sales were above normal, but prices were steady. Round bale hay prices were $50-$95. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Feb 15, 2022 Fall oat and wheat crops in South Texas were beginning to improve slightly due to the recent rainfall but the moisture was expected to be short-lived. Rangeland and pasture ratings ranged from very poor to good with some producers reporting above-average conditions for this time of year. Livestock producers were busy feeding cattle and putting hay out due to very cold weather and dry conditions. The cold weather drove local wildlife to browse near roadsides. Ranchers were marketing livestock in higher-than-normal volumes. Prices for feeder cattle and quality cull cows were steady to a slightly higher. Stock tank levels were fair. Hay prices were increasing. A small percentage of Bermuda grass pastures remained in good condition, but most acres were brown following the frost. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Feb 8, 2022 Northern areas of South Texas remained very short on moisture, while western areas reported short soil moisture levels despite rainy conditions. Row crop fields will need significant rainfall for preparation and planting. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Feb 1, 2022 The northern, western and eastern parts of the district continued to experience dry weather and very short soil moisture levels. Southern areas reported wet conditions and adequate soil moisture. Farmers were idle and waiting for rainfall to be forecast so they could apply preplant fertilizers and chemicals. The lack of rain was impacting oat field production. Rangelands were dormant due to lack of moisture but looked good in areas with moisture. A freeze around three weeks ago knocked back green grasses in some areas, and while some were recovering, dry conditions were slowing the process. Ranchers were feeding cattle and other livestock and providing protein for wildlife. Cattle were beginning to browse pear cactus, and cattle body conditions were declining in some areas. Stock tanks were low and declining. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Jan 25, 2022

The Mitchell Fire, located east of Mosquero in Harding County. The fire was first reported at 11:30 a.m. off of NM Highway 39 near mile marker 42. Residents in the areas of Carisso and Bueyeros were evacuated for their

No watches are valid as of Fri Apr 29 14:02:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Apr 29 14:02:01 UTC 2022.

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0747 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2022 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central Plains this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... South-central and southeast Nebraska North-central to eastern Kansas Far western Missouri Far southwest Iowa North-central and northeast Oklahoma * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force A few intense tornadoes Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A multi-outcome severe weather episode is forecast this afternoon into tonight across the central Great Plains vicinity. Conditionally, the threat for significant severe weather intensities is apparent which includes destructive wind and hail, along with a few strong tornadoes. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NE TO NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS... ...SUMMARY... A multi-outcome severe weather episode is forecast this afternoon into tonight across the central Great Plains vicinity. Conditionally, the threat for significant severe weather intensities is apparent which includes destructive wind and hail, along with a few strong tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A negative-tilt shortwave trough over the northern/central Rockies will eject onto the central Great Plains by this evening before evolving into a closed low near the Mid-MO Valley overnight. A strong mid-level speed max in excess of 70 kts at 500-mb will eject through the basal portion tonight. Lee cyclone near the CO/KS/NE border will deepen as it tracks east towards far north-central KS through 00Z, before arcing northeast into the Mid-MO Valley as it weakens slightly overnight. At 00Z, a sharp dryline will arc south-southwest from this cyclone, with a pronounced cold front sweeping southeast across western KS. This cold front will progressively overtake the dryline from north to south through tonight. ...Central Great Plains vicinity... Multiple forecast scenarios are expected to unfold this afternoon and continue into tonight. Sufficient mesoscale confidence exists to warrant a wind-driven category 4/Moderate Risk along the NE/KS border, but not yet enough to include higher tornado probabilities farther south. Two primary corridors of scattered elevated thunderstorms are ongoing. The first across eastern KS into the Lower MO Valley will likely shift east and decay as a stout elevated mixed-layer expands east-northeast today. The second across west-central NE to the west-northwest of the initially quasi-stationary frontal zone may persist with continued isentropic ascent. Sustained severe thunderstorm development is most likely to occur to the south and east of this corridor of early-day convection near the surface cyclone track and associated frontal zone. Large-scale ascent will become quite strong along the northwest periphery of near 60 F surface dew points. Deep-layer shear profiles will initially be modest and tend to favor a cluster convective mode with a mix of severe hail and wind. In the late afternoon to early evening, this activity should impinge on larger buoyancy peaking near the south-central NE/north-central KS border, which in conjunction with strengthening low to mid-level flow attendant to the aforementioned shortwave trough, should foster an intensifying and broadening MCS. All severe weather hazards will be possible, but destructive wind gusts may ultimately become the more widespread hazard across south-central to eastern NE and north-central/northeast KS. This activity should generally weaken east of the Mid-MO Valley later this evening. Intense surface heating into the 90s to the west of the dryline should lead to minimal MLCIN by late afternoon along the dryline. A few discrete supercells are possible across the central to south-central KS and north-central OK portion of the dryline where mid-level height falls will occur. Farther south, confidence decreases in sustained supercell development, but conditionally the threat will exist to the Red River. If sustained supercells form, very large hail along with tornadoes will be the primary hazards amid 62-65 F surface dew points. While the corridor of minimal MLCIN may be narrow given the strength of the elevated mixed-layer relative to warm-sector moisture quality, any established supercells will encounter an intensifying low-level jet this evening. This could support a couple strong tornadic supercells as well. More probable convective development is anticipated later in the evening as the sweeping cold front overtakes the dryline from north to south. Convective mode will be linear within this regime, but an eastward-propagating MCS is possible with damaging winds becoming the more common hazard. This activity should tend to weaken overnight as instability diminishes over the Ozark Plateau. ..Grams/Mosier.. 04/29/2022 Read more

The Road 702 Fire began in Kansas on April 22, 2022 and grew in a relatively narrow strip to the north up to the Republican River in Nebraska, covering approximately 28 miles rapidly. Multiple communities were evacuated along the path of the wildfire. The Road 702 Fire is estimated to be 44,024 acres. Inactive fire edge is currently limiting fire spread but spotting potential is moderate, flareups or spot fires will spread with moderate rates of spread across all fuels. Firefighters will continue to secure existing firelines by mopping up and multiple helicopters are supporting the crews by providing water to cool hotspots.  The Nebraska Type III Team will assume command of the Fire on Friday April 29, 2022.  VIDEO LINKS:A "Thank You" from the Road 702 Fire - YouTubePlease view the Operations Briefing Video for April 28, 2022 at:  Road 702 Fire Operational Update for April 28, 2022 - YouTube(Please note the date on the map in the video is incorrect.)If you wish to view...

Water users with junior rights on the Tongue River and its tributaries in northeast Wyoming are on notice for legally enforceable water conservation measures, following a call from Montana. Low snowpack, persistent drought conditions and forecasts for lower-than-average precipitation were the reasons for initiating the water conservation measures and notices. WyoFile (Lander, Wyo.), April 26, 2022

Junior water rights holders on the North Platte River were ordered to curtail diversions through April. Low snowpack, persistent drought conditions and forecasts for lower-than-average precipitation were the reasons for initiating the water conservation measures and notices. WyoFile (Lander, Wyo.), April 26, 2022

No watches are valid as of Thu Apr 28 13:37:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Apr 28 13:37:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0726 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2022 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NE PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across a portion of the central states arcing into the northeast Great Basin this afternoon through tonight. Within this broader regime, greatest confidence for severe hail exists across the Nebraska Panhandle during the late evening to early overnight. ...Southeast ID/northern UT to the NE Panhandle... A negative-tilt shortwave trough over northern CA will move east towards the central Rockies through early Friday. While strong mid to upper-level winds will largely remain confined to the backside of the trough, strengthening large-scale ascent will overspread the northeast Great Basin through central WY this afternoon. Despite surface dew points only peaking in the 30s, pockets of surface temperatures warming through the 60s should support meager buoyancy amid a steep lapse rate environment. Locally severe wind gusts and small hail will be possible in the strongest updrafts during the late afternoon to early evening. Tonight, ascent tied to the shortwave trough will impinge on the northwest periphery of the Great Plains low-level moisture plume. As low-level moistening occurs amid southeasterly flow, increasing elevated buoyancy is anticipated given rather steep mid-level lapse rates around 8 C/km. Most guidance suggests a few robust updrafts should develop near the WY/CO/NE border and spread into the destabilizing air mass in the NE Panhandle. Large hail and locally strong gusts will be possible, until convection probably weakens within a small cluster towards the end of the period. ...Mid-MO Valley to the central and southern Great Plains... Much of the central states will be under the influence of modest mid-level westerlies (predominately 20-35 kts at 500-mb) amid low-amplitude ridging ahead of the western trough. Increasingly expansive and deepening boundary-layer moisture beneath an elevated mixed-layer in advance of tomorrow's greater severe threat will primarily characterize today. Nevertheless, there will be opportunities for at least isolated severe storms to occur during the late afternoon and evening. The two primary areas of focus appear to be within the northeast periphery of the low-level warm theta-e advection regime from the Mid-MO Valley to eastern KS, and the second along the dryline from western KS to west TX. Most guidance suggests the warm-advection regime is likely to support scattered thunderstorm coverage, especially this evening as the low-level jet strengthens across TX/OK/KS. An overall modest combination of deep-layer shear and buoyancy suggest the overall severe threat should remain isolated, although a few weak supercells are possible. Along the dryline, convective coverage may remain quite sparse and limited in temporal extent to a few hours in the early evening, with minimal large-scale ascent beyond low-level convergence. The setup will support a conditional threat for a couple supercells with large hail as the main hazard. ..Grams/Jewell.. 04/28/2022 Read more

South Dakota pastures have not received enough moisture for normal production, so the South Dakota Grassland Coalition recommends that ranchers plan ahead. A rangeland management specialist with the Natural Resources Conservation Service in Bison, stated that up to 150 percent of normal rainfall would be needed in May and June to return to normal forage production. Associated Press (New York), April 25, 2022

 The US Department of Agriculture, Forest Service plans to use prescribed fire as a forest management tool during April and May 2022 on the Allegheny National Forest. We do not have exact dates yet. Our operations are weather dependent, and we will implement prescribed fires at the optimal time to achieve the best results. We will notify communities near the burn sites 24 to 48 hours before ignitions.  To keep community members well informed we will post road signs, road guards, and live information on our social media accounts while burns are conducted. This spring, we plan to treat 800 acres spread across five project areas located in both the Marienville and Bradford Ranger Districts.   We conduct prescribed fires with the safety of the public and firefighters as the highest priority. We use fire as a tool only when the parameters of our approved burn plan are met, including wind speed and direction, relative humidity, temperature, fire danger, seasonal restrictions, and...

No watches are valid as of Wed Apr 27 13:59:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Apr 27 13:59:01 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2022 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WESTERN KS AND SOUTHEAST CO TO THE TX TRANS-PECOS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts along with small to marginally severe hail will be possible this afternoon and evening from western Kansas and southeast Colorado southward to the Trans-Pecos of Texas. ...Southern High Plains... The leading edge of low 50s surface dew points has spread across the Permian Basin and TX South Plains as modifying low-level moisture return persists along the Lower TX Gulf Coast. This poleward moisture transport will expand north-northeast across the rest of the southern High Plains into KS but with vertical mixing of drier air aloft as robust boundary-layer heating occurs today. A shortwave impulse over AZ will eject east towards the southern High Plains through tonight. Ascent tied to this feature will aid in initial thunderstorm development this afternoon in the lee of the Sangre de Cristos and over the Raton Mesa. Here, buoyancy will likely remain scant but some enhancement of mid-level westerlies will help push isolated to scattered convection eastward. Given the deep dry boundary layer, evaporatively aided wind gusts locally reaching severe levels will likely be the primary threat. The convective wind threat should diminish roughly around the longitude of the eastern TX Panhandle border as MLCIN will become increasingly pronounced at lower elevations with eastern extent. Farther south, isolated thunderstorms are likely off the Sacramentos of southeast NM to the TX Trans-Pecos where buoyancy will be greater with MLCAPE nearing 1000 J/kg. Veering of the wind profile with height should be adequate for 30-35 kt effective bulk shear. This may support a spatially and temporally limited period of a few weak, slow-moving supercells. These would pose a threat for isolated severe hail and locally strong gusts. ..Grams/Jewell.. 04/27/2022 Read more