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Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 251459 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 Jerry remains devoid of deep convection in an environment of dry mid-level air and strong westerly shear. Data from a new scatterometer pass indicate that the maximum winds are no more than 35 kt, and even that value could be generous. The system should remain in a hostile environment for the next few days, and simulated satellite imagery from the global models suggest that no significant deep convection will redevelop within it. Therefore the official intensity forecast calls for the cyclone to gradually spin down over the next 2-3 days. The NHC intensity forecast is just slightly below the model consensus. The cyclone has turned toward the east-northeast with some increase in forward speed, and the initial motion estimate is 060/8 kt. Jerry should continue to move east-northeastward, to the south of the main belt of mid-latitude westerlies, for the next day or two. Later in the forecast period, the weak cyclone is expected to turn east-southeastward along the northeastern periphery of a subtropical high pressure area, and dissipate. The official track forecast continues to follow the NOAA corrected consensus guidance rather closely. Key Messages: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda later today. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 32.0N 66.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 26/0000Z 32.6N 65.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 26/1200Z 33.4N 62.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/0000Z 34.3N 60.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/1200Z 34.9N 58.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/1200Z 33.8N 54.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 251459 PWSAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 1500 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 66 1(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) BERMUDA 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 251459 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Advisory Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 ...WEAKENING JERRY APPROACHING BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.0N 66.8W ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM W OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry was located near latitude 32.0 North, longitude 66.8 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A continued east-northeasterly motion is expected for the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the east on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near or over Bermuda later today. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued gradual weakening is expected during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by this afternoon and could continue through this evening. RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 inch or less of rainfall across Bermuda through tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry will continue to affect Bermuda during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...WEAKENING JERRY APPROACHING BERMUDA... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Sep 25 the center of Jerry was located near 32.0, -66.8 with movement ENE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 251458 TCMAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 1500 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 66.8W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 120SE 40SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 66.8W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 67.4W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 32.6N 65.1W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 100SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 33.4N 62.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 34.3N 60.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 34.9N 58.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 33.8N 54.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.0N 66.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 25/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Monongahela National Forest officials plan to conduct a prescribed burn on 96 acres of National Forest System land in the Brushy Mountain Grouse Management Area, near Mapledale in Greenbrier County. Why do we burn? Reintroducing fire into the forest will: Restore historic fire regimes Improve wildlife habitat Enhance forest structure and age diversity Improve oak regeneration Control tree diseases and insects Reduce hazardous fuel levels How do we manage a prescribed burn? Fire managers prepare a burn plan for each prescribed burn describing the appropriate conditions needed to conduct the burn safely and achieve the desired results. Burn plans consider public safety, protection of private property, staffing and equipment needs, temperature, humidity, wind, moisture of the vegetation, and conditions for the dispersal of smoke. Appropriate conditions must be met before igniting prescribed burns. A control line is established around each burn area before ignition, using hand tools...

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2019 14:52:03 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2019 15:31:39 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 000 FONT12 KNHC 251450 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 1500 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 251450 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 Karen is still having a tough time establishing and maintaining a well-organized structure. The deep convection which developed over the center earlier this morning has since collapsed, leaving a ragged and disorganized cloud pattern. In addition, a sizable outflow boundary moving away from the eastern part of the circulation suggests that there is dry air within the vortex. The initial intensity is being held at 40 kt, pending possible scatterometer data later this morning and a reconnaissance flight this afternoon. The initial position is a little difficult to locate, but the best estimate of the current motion is 360/13 kt. Karen is moving northward between a mid-level high centered over the central Atlantic and a mid- to upper-level low located just east of the Bahamas. This low is expected to slowly retrograde westward, with ridging developing over the western Atlantic by day 3. This change in steering will cause Karen to turn northeastward during the next 48 hours but then make a clockwise loop once it is blocked by the ridge. After day 3, the ridge should force Karen to move west-southwestward. Most of the track models agree on this general scenario. There is some latitudinal spread on days 4 and 5 after the loop occurs, with the HWRF being the most notable outlier by not showing much of a westward motion. The consensus aids, however, have remained fairly steady, and therefore there was no compelling reason to make any significant changes compared to the previous track forecast. Except for the possibility of dry air in the circulation, it's not quite evident why Karen has not been able to sustain organization. Still, the cyclone is expected to move beneath an upper-level anticyclone during the next 24-48 hours, and if the shear does indeed decrease, then some strengthening would be expected. There continues to be a dichotomy among the intensity models, with the dynamical models (including the GFS and ECMWF) keeping the cyclone weak while the statistical-dynamical models still show intensification through days 4 and 5. It's difficult to ignore what's being shown by the global models, since there must be something in the environment that they're deeming to be negative for continued strengthening. The best course of action at this point is to maintain a steady intensity after 48 hours, but it should be noted that what is shown in the official forecast still lies above the ICON intensity consensus and the HCCA corrected consensus aid. Key Messages: 1. Karen will continue to produce heavy rainfall, potentially causing additional flash floods and mudslides, across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today even as the center moves away from the region. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 21.7N 64.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 23.4N 64.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 25.4N 63.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 26.9N 62.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 27.5N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 26.8N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 26.0N 65.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 30/1200Z 25.5N 68.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 251450 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 ...CENTER OF KAREN MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PUERTO RICO, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 64.9W ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 64.9 West. Karen is moving toward the north near 15 mph (24 km/h). A north- northeastward to northeastward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through early Friday. Karen is then expected to slow down and make a clockwise loop over the southwestern Atlantic into the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, with isolated storm totals of 8 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. Some areas in southeastern Puerto Rico have already received up to 5 inches of rainfall, which has caused some flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

...CENTER OF KAREN MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PUERTO RICO, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Sep 25 the center of Karen was located near 21.7, -64.9 with movement N at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Monongahela National Forest fire staff plan to conduct a prescribed burn on nine acres of National Forest System land at Cheat Summit Fort, southeast of Huttonsville in Randolph County. Why do we burn? This nine-acre prescribed burn will help control grasses and other vegetation, and enhance interpretive opportunities at historic earthworks that date from the Civil War. The area was last burned in 2013. Prescribed fire is one tool that forest managers use to reduce vegetation and nonnative invasive species. How do we manage a prescribed burn? Fire managers prepare a burn plan for each prescribed burn describing the appropriate conditions needed to conduct the burn safely and achieve the desired results. Burn plans consider public safety, protection of private property, staffing and equipment needs, temperature, humidity, wind, moisture of the vegetation, and conditions for the dispersal of smoke. Appropriate conditions must be met before igniting prescribed burns. A control line is...

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2019 14:50:33 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2019 15:38:17 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 663 WTNT22 KNHC 251450 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 1500 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 64.9W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 60SE 20SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 75SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 64.9W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 65.0W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 23.4N 64.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 25.4N 63.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 26.9N 62.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 27.5N 62.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 26.8N 62.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 26.0N 65.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 25.5N 68.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 64.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 251435 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 1500 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 251435 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 1500 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 35.1W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT.......180NE 130SE 30SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 210SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 35.1W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 34.5W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 14.4N 37.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 50SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 15.3N 39.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 160SE 90SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.7N 40.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 100SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.4N 42.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 100SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.9N 44.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 100SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 25.0N 44.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 29.0N 42.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 35.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 251435 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 ...LORENZO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 35.1W ABOUT 715 MI...1155 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 35.1 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Thursday. A turn toward the northwest is expected late Thursday or Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Lorenzo is forecast to become a major hurricane by Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...LORENZO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THURSDAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Sep 25 the center of Lorenzo was located near 14.1, -35.1 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2019 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS WESTWARD OVER PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS...AS WELL AS PARTS OF ARIZONA AND SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe winds and hail are possible this afternoon and evening from the Ozarks westward over parts of Oklahoma and Kansas, as well as parts of Arizona and southeastern California. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, broadly cyclonic flow will cover the northern CONUS from the northern Rockies across much of the Midwest and Great Lakes. This flow belt, and a series of embedded shortwaves, will reside largely on the poleward side of a related surface front described below. A cut-off low -- initially located over the northern Baja/northern Gulf of CA area -- is expected to meander erratically near its present location through today, then move slowly northward up the lower Colorado River area overnight. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a cold front from central Lake Superior across central WI, southern IA, and central KS, to a weak low over southwestern KS. By 00Z the front should reach Lake Huron, northern/central IN, southeastern/south-central MO, and north- central OK, then into an elongated area of low pressure covering southern CO, northeastern NM and the TX Panhandle. A separate, prefrontal surface trough and wind-shift line, likely related to an area of outflow, may develop from the TX Panhandle across central/ eastern OK. By 12Z, the front should reach Lake Ontario, the upper Ohio Valley, and eastern KY, becoming quasistationary across the southern Ozarks into central/western OK and the TX Panhandle. ...Ozarks and vicinity to western/central OK... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, mainly in clusters, should develop over the region today, likely focused most densely around the front, outflow boundaries and differential-heating zones. Damaging to severe gusts and large hail are possible beneath the most vigorous cells. Latest low/middle-level satellite imagery and composited radar animations reveal an MCV over northeastern OK. This feature, and the associated swirl of clouds/precip and sporadic convection, should move eastward to east-southeastward across the southern Ozarks region through the day. A related outflow boundary, initially curving from northeastern OK south of OUN to near CHK and over west-central OK, should lose some definition through the day and retreat northward somewhat. Meanwhile, the front will decelerate over the MO Ozarks and southeastern KS. Given the likely plethora of subtle foci, strong mesoscale dependence of the risk, and related uncertainties still lingering at this hour, strong- severe storm concentration is expected to be highly inconsistent/ erratic across the outlook area. Away from patches of sustained clouds/precip, diurnal heating and rich low-level moisture (upper 60s to low 70s F surface dew points) will support MLCAPE of 2500- 4000 J/kg, but with only 25-30 kt effective-shear magnitudes for most of the afternoon due to modest low/middle-level flow. Convection initiation over central/northern/northwestern OK, and a nearby sliver of KS containing sufficient moisture, is highly uncertain due to weak low-level flow and related lack of boundary- layer forcing, as well as somewhat weaker theta-e near the front itself. Most progs develop little, if any, sustained convection across this corridor. Still, conditional severe potential exists, given the presence of strong warm-sector diurnal heating, ample low-level moisture, locally strong buoyancy, well-mixed boundary layer, winds veering with height, low-level shear marginally extending into supercellular parameter spaces by around 00Z, and vorticity-concentrating boundaries. ...Southern AZ/CA... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across portions of south-central/central AZ and Sonora, pivoting cyclonically about the northern semicircle of the mid/upper vortex. Some of this activity ultimately may move westward or even southwestward over southeastern CA. Any sustained convection over southeastern AZ also may move northward to northeastward in a regime of strongly difluent mid/upper-level winds and largely meridional mean deep-layer flow. These thunderstorms will be capable of isolated severe hail and gusts. The organized severe threat still appears too low/conditional for more than a marginal area, given the modest magnitudes of both deep shear and max preconvective buoyancy. Still, the most intense cells may produce large hail and damaging gusts, given the proximity of the cold-core low, sufficient residual moisture for surface-based storms, and enough diurnal heating to build a well-mixed, inverted-v thermodynamic profile in the boundary layer. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 09/25/2019 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2019 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS WESTWARD OVER PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS...AS WELL AS PARTS OF ARIZONA AND SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe winds and hail are possible this afternoon and evening from the Ozarks westward over parts of Oklahoma and Kansas, as well as parts of Arizona and southeastern California. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, broadly cyclonic flow will cover the northern CONUS from the northern Rockies across much of the Midwest and Great Lakes. This flow belt, and a series of embedded shortwaves, will reside largely on the poleward side of a related surface front described below. A cut-off low -- initially located over the northern Baja/northern Gulf of CA area -- is expected to meander erratically near its present location through today, then move slowly northward up the lower Colorado River area overnight. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a cold front from central Lake Superior across central WI, southern IA, and central KS, to a weak low over southwestern KS. By 00Z the front should reach Lake Huron, northern/central IN, southeastern/south-central MO, and north- central OK, then into an elongated area of low pressure covering southern CO, northeastern NM and the TX Panhandle. A separate, prefrontal surface trough and wind-shift line, likely related to an area of outflow, may develop from the TX Panhandle across central/ eastern OK. By 12Z, the front should reach Lake Ontario, the upper Ohio Valley, and eastern KY, becoming quasistationary across the southern Ozarks into central/western OK and the TX Panhandle. ...Ozarks and vicinity to western/central OK... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, mainly in clusters, should develop over the region today, likely focused most densely around the front, outflow boundaries and differential-heating zones. Damaging to severe gusts and large hail are possible beneath the most vigorous cells. Latest low/middle-level satellite imagery and composited radar animations reveal an MCV over northeastern OK. This feature, and the associated swirl of clouds/precip and sporadic convection, should move eastward to east-southeastward across the southern Ozarks region through the day. A related outflow boundary, initially curving from northeastern OK south of OUN to near CHK and over west-central OK, should lose some definition through the day and retreat northward somewhat. Meanwhile, the front will decelerate over the MO Ozarks and southeastern KS. Given the likely plethora of subtle foci, strong mesoscale dependence of the risk, and related uncertainties still lingering at this hour, strong- severe storm concentration is expected to be highly inconsistent/ erratic across the outlook area. Away from patches of sustained clouds/precip, diurnal heating and rich low-level moisture (upper 60s to low 70s F surface dew points) will support MLCAPE of 2500- 4000 J/kg, but with only 25-30 kt effective-shear magnitudes for most of the afternoon due to modest low/middle-level flow. Convection initiation over central/northern/northwestern OK, and a nearby sliver of KS containing sufficient moisture, is highly uncertain due to weak low-level flow and related lack of boundary- layer forcing, as well as somewhat weaker theta-e near the front itself. Most progs develop little, if any, sustained convection across this corridor. Still, conditional severe potential exists, given the presence of strong warm-sector diurnal heating, ample low-level moisture, locally strong buoyancy, well-mixed boundary layer, winds veering with height, low-level shear marginally extending into supercellular parameter spaces by around 00Z, and vorticity-concentrating boundaries. ...Southern AZ/CA... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across portions of south-central/central AZ and Sonora, pivoting cyclonically about the northern semicircle of the mid/upper vortex. Some of this activity ultimately may move westward or even southwestward over southeastern CA. Any sustained convection over southeastern AZ also may move northward to northeastward in a regime of strongly difluent mid/upper-level winds and largely meridional mean deep-layer flow. These thunderstorms will be capable of isolated severe hail and gusts. The organized severe threat still appears too low/conditional for more than a marginal area, given the modest magnitudes of both deep shear and max preconvective buoyancy. Still, the most intense cells may produce large hail and damaging gusts, given the proximity of the cold-core low, sufficient residual moisture for surface-based storms, and enough diurnal heating to build a well-mixed, inverted-v thermodynamic profile in the boundary layer. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 09/25/2019 Read more