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A Christmas tree farm in Grant has not received rain in at least four months and endured intense heat exceeding 100 degrees over the summer. Eight hundred or more trees were lost due to the harsh weather this summer. Although some tree farms have closed, the tree farm in Grant has irrigation. The crop maze has not done well, and flowers were not yet blooming, but should be. KPLC (Lake Charles, La.), Sept 21, 2023

Drought and less water flowing in the Mississippi River meant less fresh water in the river to keep saltwater from pushing its way upriver. A huge tree nursery near Belle Chasse needs about 100,000 gallons of fresh water daily to irrigate the half a million trees, but the wedge of saltwater has gotten dangerously close. The week of Sept. 25, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers will expand an underwater barrier that was originally constructed in July to slow the movement of the saltwater. The expansion should take about two weeks and will result in a sill 60 feet high and about 2,200 feet across the river. A notch will be left in the sill 620 wide and 55 feet deep to allow oceangoing vessels to pass through. The Mississippi’s lowest recorded flow occurred in 1988 when it was just 120,000 cubic feet per second. Saltwater reached upriver to Kenner, La. on the outskirts of New Orleans. This year, it is forecast to fall to 130,000 cubic feet per second. The Washington Post (D.C.), Sept 21, 2023

WW 0688 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 688 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..09/21/23 ATTN...WFO...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 688 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC089-123-141-183-220040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JEWELL MITCHELL OSBORNE SMITH NEC001-019-035-061-079-099-129-181-220040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BUFFALO CLAY FRANKLIN HALL KEARNEY NUCKOLLS WEBSTER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 688 TORNADO KS NE 212150Z - 220300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 688 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 450 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of North central Kansas South central Nebraska * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 450 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Supercells will persist into this evening along a stationary front across southern Nebraska, with the potential to produce a couple of tornadoes and isolated very large hail of 2 to 2.5 inches in diameter. Some clustering of storms is expected later this evening into early tonight, with some increase in the threat for damaging winds as storms spread east-southeastward along the Nebraska/Kansas border. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north of Kearney NE to 90 miles south of Hastings NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 687... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26010. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0687 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 687 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..09/21/23 ATTN...WFO...GLD...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 687 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC039-063-065-109-137-147-153-163-179-193-220040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DECATUR GOVE GRAHAM LOGAN NORTON PHILLIPS RAWLINS ROOKS SHERIDAN THOMAS NEC005-029-041-047-049-063-065-069-073-075-083-085-087-091-101- 111-113-117-135-137-145-171-220040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR CHASE CUSTER DAWSON DEUEL FRONTIER FURNAS GARDEN GOSPER GRANT HARLAN HAYES HITCHCOCK HOOKER KEITH LINCOLN LOGAN MCPHERSON PERKINS PHELPS RED WILLOW THOMAS Read more

WW 687 TORNADO KS NE 211950Z - 220300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 687 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 250 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northwest Kansas Southwest Nebraska * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 250 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to rapidly develop this afternoon along a dryline and warm front lying across the area. Supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes are expected. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles south southwest of Hill City KS to 60 miles north northwest of North Platte NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28025. ...Hart Read more

Extreme weather, including hard freezes, intense heat and drought, have hurt trees on Christmas tree farms in southern Mississippi. The co-owner of a tree farm in Moselle reported that trees were drying, including ones that were recently planted. A Marion County Christmas tree farm lost about 30 mature trees and 900 seedlings. There will be enough trees for the holiday season this year, but the deaths of younger trees may leave a dearth of trees in coming years. WHLT-TV (Hattiesburg, Miss.), Sept 21, 2023

MD 2172 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 2172 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0518 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023 Areas affected...Eastern Kansas into far northeast Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 212218Z - 220015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few strong to severe storms appear probable this evening with an attendant risk for damaging winds and large hail. However, this risk should remain sufficiently isolated to preclude watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, isolated thunderstorms have initiated across eastern KS with somewhat rapid cloud top cooling noted in IR imagery (approximately 20 C over a 20 minute window). Broken cloud cover through the afternoon has muted diurnal destabilization to some degree, but seasonally rich low-level moisture (mid 60s dewpoints) is supporting MLCAPE values upwards of 2000 J/kg. Additionally, southeasterly low-level flow under southwesterly winds aloft is supporting effective bulk shear values near 35 knots - sufficiently for organized cells. Although the regional environment is supportive of supercells with an attendant hail/wind risk, east/southeast KS is on the periphery of stronger mesoscale and synoptic ascent to the northwest across northern KS and NE. This casts uncertainty onto storm coverage, and slow storm motions should limit the potential for storm interactions/upscale growth. Consequently, this threat should remain fairly isolated, and a watch will likely not be needed. ..Moore/Thompson.. 09/21/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 37089605 37569650 38159697 38739706 38929702 39139669 39079624 38679546 38159501 37569460 37149449 36759460 36649505 36709542 37089605 Read more

MD 2171 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES
Mesoscale Discussion 2171 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023 Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 212143Z - 212345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage over the next few hours, and a few strong to severe storms appear likely. Severe wind and large hail will be the primary threats, but confidence in the coverage/duration of this threat is limited and watch issuance is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is well underway across central to eastern NM within the left-exit region of an approaching upper jet. This high-based activity is developing on the western fringe of the low-level moisture plume over the Plains with dewpoints in the upper 40s to low 50s and dewpoint depressions upwards of 40-50 F noted in latest surface obs. Although buoyancy profiles are somewhat meager (MLCAPE between 500-1000 J/kg), the deeply-mixed low-level thermodynamic profile is conducive for strong to severe downburst winds. Combined with weak low-level flow, this may favor undercutting outflows and storm clustering with time, which limits confidence in the duration of any particular strong/severe storm. However, strong speed shear in the 0-6 km layer will support initial cell organization with an attendant hail risk. The expectation over the next several hours is for additional storms to develop across eastern NM, slowly intensifying (with perhaps some clustering/upscale growth) as they migrate into the TX/OK Panhandles where low-level moisture improves. However, increasing inhibition closer to the TX/western OK border and the onset of nocturnal cooling later this evening may limit the eastward extent of the threat. ..Moore/Thompson.. 09/21/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 33500539 33750532 36570391 36760369 37300238 37370157 37160094 36540052 35430051 34140145 33480266 33120417 33040464 33020500 33100523 33300532 33500539 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z ...Day 3/Saturday... On the backside of a midlevel low tracking northeastward across the northern Plains, strong deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the northern/central High Plains. As a result, 25+ mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) are expected across portions of southern WY, western NE, and far northeastern CO. While these winds could briefly overlap 20-30 percent RH over the area, marginal fuels should generally limit the fire-weather risk. ...Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday... Southwesterly midlevel flow will gradually strengthen across the Northwest on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday, favoring breezy southwesterly surface winds across portions of northeastern CA, northwestern NV, and far southeastern OR -- where 15-20 percent RH is possible. With that said, fuels are generally unsupportive of large fires over these areas -- precluding Critical probabilities. ...Days 6-8/Tuesday-Thursday... The potential for dry/breezy conditions should focus over portions of the Southwest and Great Basin late in the extended forecast period, and potentially over the High Plains depending on moisture return. However, additional rainfall over already marginal fuels across these areas cast uncertainty on the fire-weather risk. ..Weinman.. 09/21/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 21 Sep 2023 20:41:17 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 21 Sep 2023 21:35:02 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 21 2023 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 212040 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132023 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 21 2023 Kenneth is a sheared tropical cyclone. The small area of active convection associated with the storm has been displaced over 90 n mi from its exposed low-level center by southwesterly shear. This deteriorating satellite presentation has caused the intensity estimates to decrease today. Based on a blend of the latest objective and subjective Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt. Recent satellite images indicate Kenneth has begun its northward turn, and the initial motion is north-northwestward at 330/6 kt. A generally northward motion should continue for the next couple of days as the system moves within the flow between a mid-level trough to the northwest and a mid-level ridge over central Mexico. There were no major changes to the track guidance this cycle, and the latest NHC forecast is similar to the previous prediction. While simulated satellite imagery from the global models suggest Kenneth could produce intermittent bursts of sheared convection during the next day or so, the environmental conditions (stronger shear, progressively cooler SSTs, and a drier and more stable airmass) are not conducive for sustained convection going forward. Based on these factors and recent satellite trends, this forecast shows additional weakening with post-tropical/remnant low status in 24 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 17.9N 125.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 19.2N 126.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 20.9N 125.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 23/0600Z 22.3N 125.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 23/1800Z 23.4N 125.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 21 2023 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 212040 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132023 2100 UTC THU SEP 21 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 2 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 21 2023 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 212039 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kenneth Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132023 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 21 2023 ...KENNETH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 125.7W ABOUT 1080 MI...1735 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kenneth was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 125.7 West. Kenneth is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northward motion is expected to begin later tonight and continue through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Kenneth is expected to become a remnant low on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...KENNETH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu Sep 21 the center of Kenneth was located near 17.9, -125.7 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 21 2023 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 212039 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132023 2100 UTC THU SEP 21 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 125.7W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 125.7W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 125.6W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 19.2N 126.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 20.9N 125.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 22.3N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 23.4N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 125.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN KS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL NE...AND OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK AND NORTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into tonight across parts of the southern and central Plains. ...20Z Update... ...NE/KS... Recent surface analysis places a low near the CO/NE/KS border intersection, with a dryline extending southward across western KS. As mentioned in recently issued MCD #2168, storm initiation appears probable in the next couple of hours across parts of southwestern Nebraska. The deepening surface low is supporting robust southeasterly flow and strong low-level shear. Moderate westerly flow exists atop this low-level southeasterly flow, supporting 30 to 40 kt of effective bulk shear. Strong buoyancy has also developed ahead of the dryline, with recent mesoanalysis estimating 1500 to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE across western KS and western/central NE. The overall environment supports supercells capable of all severe hazards including large to very-large (1-3 in.) hail, severe wind gusts (60-70 mph), and tornadoes. The tornado threat will generally be maximized near the warm front where surface winds remain more backed. ...Southern OK/North TX... Despite widespread clouds, temperatures have reached the upper 80s/low 90s across much of the region. Dewpoints are in the upper 60s/low 70s, and this combination of temperatures and dewpoints is supporting strong buoyancy. Recent mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE is around 2000-2500 J/kg. Vertical shear is modest, but sufficient for some updraft organization. As such, a few strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible, with large hail and damaging gusts as the primary threats. ..Mosier.. 09/21/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023/ ...Central and Southern Plains... Morning water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave trough crossing the Rockies of central CO. This feature will move eastward and provide weak large scale ascent across much of the central Plains this afternoon and evening. Morning model solutions are diverse in placement/timing of thunderstorm activity, but generally show a larger envelope of potential risk. Therefore have expanded the MRGL to include much more of the central and southern Plains. ...NE/KS... A rather pronounced surface dryline is expected to develop later today from western NE southward into western KS, with dewpoints in the 60s and MLCAPE values of over 2500 J/kg to the east of the boundary. Given the weak forcing and some cap, the areal coverage of convective initiation is uncertain. However, any storm that forms along this axis will have a conditional threat of very large hail and a tornado or two. These storms may persist for several hours after dark and track eastward into parts of north central KS and central NE. ...OK/TX... A weak sub-tropical shortwave trough is moving into west TX. Lift ahead of this feature is resulting in a large region of accas and a few showers and thunderstorms moving into southwest OK/northwest TX. Continued daytime heating is expected to lead to convective intensification by late afternoon across north TX and southern OK. The strongest cells in this area may produce hail and gusty winds for a few hours into this evening. ...Eastern NC... The outer bands of the strengthening tropical system off the southeast Atlantic coast are forecast to still be well offshore by Fri/12z. Therefore will defer any increasing tornado risk to the Day2 period. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z The latest fuels information suggests that fine fuels have dried sufficiently over portions of the mountains/I-25 corridor in southern Colorado to support some fire potential. Given the expectation for sustained southwesterly surface winds of 15-25 mph (with higher gusts) and around 10 percent RH, the Elevated highlights were expanded westward into this area. Over the southeast Colorado plains, the Elevated highlights were trimmed as the latest guidance suggests sustained surface winds will be too weak for an appreciable fire-weather risk. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 09/21/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023/ ...Synopsis... An upper low across eastern Oregon will start to fill during the day Friday and eventually become a negatively tilted open wave across the central/northern Rockies. As this upper-level pattern evolves, lee troughing is expected, which will bring some breezy conditions from the Southwest into the central Rockies and also the central High Plains and the central Plains. Farther west in Arizona and Utah, fuels are too moist to support fire spread. However, in the plains across southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico and vicinity, some drier fuels are present. These fuels will likely dry further with single-digit relative humidity. Therefore, an Elevated area has been added for portions of the central High Plains for Friday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook AMEND 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO PARTS OF MO/IA/SOUTHERN MN... AMENDED TO ADD SEVERE PROBABILITIES OVER THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across parts of the central and southern Plains into Iowa and Missouri. ...Coastal Mid-Atlantic... Recently issued track of Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 brings it onshore over coastal NC early Saturday morning, and then northward into the Chesapeake Bay by Saturday evening. Recent guidance suggests the warm sector to the north and east of the system's center should penetrate far enough inland to support modest buoyancy and deeper convective cores. Given the strong low to mid-level wind fields, any updrafts that are able to deepen and mature could produce tornadoes. Mesoscale details, in particular how much buoyancy develops inland, remain uncertain enough to introducing only a Marginal/Level 2 risk with this amendment. -- PREVIOUS DISCUSSION -- ...Great Plains into parts of MN/IA/MO... A seasonably strong mid/upper-level cyclone is forecast to move eastward across SD on Saturday. The primary surface low attendant to this mid/upper cyclone is forecast to move from the central Plains into the Dakotas as the system begins to occlude, while secondary surface low development is possible along the trailing front across the southern Plains. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy is expected to develop across a broad area of the Great Plains on Saturday, east of the cold front and outside of any areas where outflow persists from morning convection. One notable midlevel jet maximum is forecast to move from the central Plains into the Dakotas, while a southern-stream jet maximum will begin to impinge upon parts of the southern Plains. Organized convection will be possible Saturday into Saturday night across a broad region from the Great Plains into parts of MN/IA/MO, with a mixture of supercells and organized clusters possible along/east of a cold front. Initial development is most likely closer to the mid/upper-level low across the central/northern Plains, with storm development into parts of the southern Plains expected by early Saturday evening. All severe hazards will be possible, though primary storm mode and evolution of mesoscale details remain uncertain at this forecast range. ...Eastern NC into the Mid Atlantic... A surface low is forecast to move from near or just offshore of eastern NC into parts of the Mid Atlantic on Saturday. Depending on the westward extent of the track, richer low-level moisture may spread into coastal areas of the Mid Atlantic region, potentially accompanied by increasing low-level flow/shear and some threat for a brief tornado or two. Depending on the ultimate track and intensity of this system, severe probabilities may eventually be needed for some part of this region. ..Mosier/Dean.. 09/21/2023 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211745
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Sep 21 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kenneth, located about 1100 miles west-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Central East Pacific:
A low pressure trough located several hundred miles south-southwest
of the southwestern coast of Mexico is producing a broad area of
showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is
possible over the next several days, and a tropical depression could
form by late this weekend or early next week while it moves
generally westward across the central and western part of the
eastern Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch