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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...THE TEXAS BIG COUNTRY...AND NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very hail and damaging gusts are possible today and tonight across portions of Oklahoma and the Texas Big Country into north-central Texas. ...20Z Update... ...Much of OK into TX Big Country and North TX... Warm-air advection showers and thunderstorms continue in an arc from north-central OK into north-central TX. Temperatures immediately west of the this arc are in the low 80s, increasing into the upper 80s and low 90s farther west across western OK and adjacent portions of the TX Panhandle. This warming is expected to continue, fostering further destabilization ahead a subtle shortwave moving across the TX/OK Panhandles. Consequently, as outlined in the previous forecast, re-development is still anticipated across western OK and northwest TX later this afternoon/evening. These storms will then track eastward/northeastward into more of central OK and north-central TX. Moderate northwesterly flow aloft will contribute to 45-50 kt of effective shear, supporting the potential for organized updrafts capable of large to very large hail. Damaging gusts are possible with this activity as well, particularly if upscale growth into a forward-propagating line occurs. ..Mosier.. 09/19/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023/ ...OK/North TX... Morning water vapor imagery loop shows multiple subtle mid-level vorticity maxima moving across the central Plains. The primary system is currently over southwest/south-central KS, and aided in rather widespread convection overnight across OK/KS. The back edge of stronger forcing associated with this feature is over western OK, with clear skies and southerly low-level winds back in place. By mid/late afternoon, strong heating will lead to a corridor of moderate CAPE across western OK into western North TX. A consensus of CAMS develop scattered thunderstorms along this axis, with storms persisting for a few hours and tracking into central OK and north-central TX. Forecast soundings show steep mid-level lapse rates and 40-50 knots of effective shear. This will support supercells capable of very large hail and damaging wind gusts. An isolated tornado or two is also possible. Model guidance is also consistent in developing storms in north-central OK this afternoon, just ahead of the upper system over KS. This area will see less heating/destabilization than farther south, but could also see a cluster of intense storms that move across northeast OK. Damaging winds and hail would be the main threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...THE TEXAS BIG COUNTRY...AND NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very hail and damaging gusts are possible today and tonight across portions of Oklahoma and the Texas Big Country into north-central Texas. ...20Z Update... ...Much of OK into TX Big Country and North TX... Warm-air advection showers and thunderstorms continue in an arc from north-central OK into north-central TX. Temperatures immediately west of the this arc are in the low 80s, increasing into the upper 80s and low 90s farther west across western OK and adjacent portions of the TX Panhandle. This warming is expected to continue, fostering further destabilization ahead a subtle shortwave moving across the TX/OK Panhandles. Consequently, as outlined in the previous forecast, re-development is still anticipated across western OK and northwest TX later this afternoon/evening. These storms will then track eastward/northeastward into more of central OK and north-central TX. Moderate northwesterly flow aloft will contribute to 45-50 kt of effective shear, supporting the potential for organized updrafts capable of large to very large hail. Damaging gusts are possible with this activity as well, particularly if upscale growth into a forward-propagating line occurs. ..Mosier.. 09/19/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023/ ...OK/North TX... Morning water vapor imagery loop shows multiple subtle mid-level vorticity maxima moving across the central Plains. The primary system is currently over southwest/south-central KS, and aided in rather widespread convection overnight across OK/KS. The back edge of stronger forcing associated with this feature is over western OK, with clear skies and southerly low-level winds back in place. By mid/late afternoon, strong heating will lead to a corridor of moderate CAPE across western OK into western North TX. A consensus of CAMS develop scattered thunderstorms along this axis, with storms persisting for a few hours and tracking into central OK and north-central TX. Forecast soundings show steep mid-level lapse rates and 40-50 knots of effective shear. This will support supercells capable of very large hail and damaging wind gusts. An isolated tornado or two is also possible. Model guidance is also consistent in developing storms in north-central OK this afternoon, just ahead of the upper system over KS. This area will see less heating/destabilization than farther south, but could also see a cluster of intense storms that move across northeast OK. Damaging winds and hail would be the main threat. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z An Elevated area was added for portions of northern CA (including the northern/northwestern Sacramento Valley), far south-central OR, and far northwest NV. The latest high-resolution guidance and CANSAC WRF runs have come into reasonably good agreement, depicting the development of around 15 mph sustained northerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 25 mph) and 15-25 percent RH during the afternoon/evening hours -- along the southern periphery of the cooler conditions to the north. For the northern/northwestern Sacramento Valley, the best overlap of breezy winds and reduced RH is expected from the evening into the overnight hours, with some uncertainty regarding RH reductions during this time frame. Given modestly receptive fuels across the area and possibly a few holdover fires from recent lightning activity, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 09/19/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0117 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be minimal on Wednesday. A mid-level trough will amplify across the Northwest and bring cool and moist conditions to much of this region. Farther south, dry and breezy conditions are expected across the Great Basin and Southwest as mid-level flow strengthens in the well-mixed environment. However fuels remain green in this region, which should preclude the potential for new large fires. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z An Elevated area was added for portions of northern CA (including the northern/northwestern Sacramento Valley), far south-central OR, and far northwest NV. The latest high-resolution guidance and CANSAC WRF runs have come into reasonably good agreement, depicting the development of around 15 mph sustained northerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 25 mph) and 15-25 percent RH during the afternoon/evening hours -- along the southern periphery of the cooler conditions to the north. For the northern/northwestern Sacramento Valley, the best overlap of breezy winds and reduced RH is expected from the evening into the overnight hours, with some uncertainty regarding RH reductions during this time frame. Given modestly receptive fuels across the area and possibly a few holdover fires from recent lightning activity, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 09/19/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0117 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be minimal on Wednesday. A mid-level trough will amplify across the Northwest and bring cool and moist conditions to much of this region. Farther south, dry and breezy conditions are expected across the Great Basin and Southwest as mid-level flow strengthens in the well-mixed environment. However fuels remain green in this region, which should preclude the potential for new large fires. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z An Elevated area was added for portions of northern CA (including the northern/northwestern Sacramento Valley), far south-central OR, and far northwest NV. The latest high-resolution guidance and CANSAC WRF runs have come into reasonably good agreement, depicting the development of around 15 mph sustained northerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 25 mph) and 15-25 percent RH during the afternoon/evening hours -- along the southern periphery of the cooler conditions to the north. For the northern/northwestern Sacramento Valley, the best overlap of breezy winds and reduced RH is expected from the evening into the overnight hours, with some uncertainty regarding RH reductions during this time frame. Given modestly receptive fuels across the area and possibly a few holdover fires from recent lightning activity, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 09/19/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0117 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be minimal on Wednesday. A mid-level trough will amplify across the Northwest and bring cool and moist conditions to much of this region. Farther south, dry and breezy conditions are expected across the Great Basin and Southwest as mid-level flow strengthens in the well-mixed environment. However fuels remain green in this region, which should preclude the potential for new large fires. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191728
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 19 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Thirteen-E, located several hundred miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Texas pumpkin growers have had vines damaged by heat and drought. some vines died early, and yield was lower than usual. The lack of rainfall led some farmers to replant their crops and irrigate. About 5,000 to 8,000 acres are planted annually in Texas, with 90% in the west Texas region. Midland Reporter-Telegram (Texas), Sept 15, 2023

The lack of rainfall made farming difficult for a farmer near Daphne. Cotton and peanuts are hardest to harvest when rain is scarce. The farmer fears that the grades on peanuts and cotton will be down. WKRG Online (Mobile, Ala.), Sept 18, 2023

The record heat and lack of rain in Louisiana this summer has dried the clay soil and cracked burrows housing crawfish which are dormant during the intense summer heat. Farmers have had to pump more water than usual onto their rice fields to try to keep the burrows moist, but it is unclear how successful they have been in keeping the crawfish alive. Farmers usually begin flooding their fields for crawfish later in September and throughout October. It will be apparent then how many crawfish survived. Excessive pumping and drought can also lead to saltwater intrusion and backflow of saltwater in irrigation canals. The Acadiana Advocate (Lafayette, La.), Sept 17, 2023 Drought was affecting crawfish production in southern Louisiana. The ground is very dry, allowing burrows to crack open, threatening their survival. The dearth of rain has increased the salinity of water sources that producers use to flood their ponds. There were also concerns about whether the crawfish will have enough food this winter as drought dries up rice, grasses and other forages. LSU AgCenter (Baton Rouge, La.), Aug 29, 2023

No watches are valid as of Mon Sep 18 22:31:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Sep 18 22:31:02 UTC 2023.

A popular wildflower farm in Hancock County will remain closed through September after drought kept flowers from growing. By Sept. 1, stalks are usually waist-high, but were just knee-high at most. The farm typically has fields of sunflowers, zinnias, poppies and daisies. Recent showers dampened the ground, so there is hope that surviving seeds might sprout and the farm could open in October. The Sun Herald (Biloxi, Miss.), Sept 1, 2023

The Hawaii State Drought Council met on Aug. 30 and discussed drought impacts and mitigation actions. Hawaii News Now (Honolulu, Hawaii), Sept 15, 2023

Dry vegetation on Oahu contributed to a large brush fire near Wahiawa on Aug. 17 and a brush fire near Maili. Hawaii News Now (Honolulu, Hawaii), Sept 15, 2023

Hawaii farmers noted that pasture conditions were poor in the Mauna area and in the Kau district on Hawaii Island. Hawaii News Now (Honolulu, Hawaii), Sept 15, 2023

Drought continued to worsen in Hawaii and contributed to several fires, such as the Kohala Ranch and Mauna Kea Beach Hotel areas on Aug. 8, in Puuanahulu on Aug. 18, and in the South Point area on Aug. 19. Hawaii News Now (Honolulu, Hawaii), Sept 15, 2023

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2023 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z A midlevel cut-off low will evolve southward from the Pacific Northwest into parts of the Great Basin on Days 3-4/ Wednesday-Thursday, as a substantial mid/upper-level jet streak advances southward along the Pacific Northwest coast. On the backside of the midlevel low, breezy northerly surface winds will develop over portions of OR, northern CA, and northwest NV on Day 3/Wednesday (and to a lesser extent on Day 4/Thursday). While the strengthening winds may influence any ongoing fires across the region, cool surface temperatures and limited RH reductions should generally limit the fire-weather threat. Along the southern and eastern peripheries of the midlevel low, strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread parts of the Great Basin, the Southwest, the central/southern Rockies, and the central High Plains on Days 3-5/Wednesday-Friday. Deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will yield dry/breezy conditions across these areas. While these meteorological conditions would typically warrant Critical probabilities, above-average rainfall and generally unreceptive fuels cast uncertainty on the overall fire-weather risk. ..Weinman.. 09/18/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

The Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources has reinstated burning permits in twelve counties. The counties are Green Lake, Waupaca, Waushara, Columbia, Crawford, Marquette, Portage, Richland, and Sauk, and portions of Dane, Grant, and Iowa counties. The permit reinstatement will remain in effect until further notice. WBAY TV (Green Bay, Wis.), Sept 15, 2023

Oats in Big Stone County averaged less than 60 bushels per acre. Brownfield Ag News (Jefferson City, Mo.), Sept 15, 2023