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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 AM CST Thu Mar 03 2022 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected across portions of southern California tonight. ...Southern California... Strong mid-level height falls (150m in 12hr) will overspread southern California and the Southwest Deserts tonight in advance of a southern-stream trough that will reach the SoCal coast early Friday morning. Increasing forcing for ascent and steepening low/mid-level lapse rates, along with a steady influx of low-level moisture, will be favorable for isolated thunderstorms tonight, initially offshore but subsequently into the coastal areas of SoCal. A couple hundred J/kg of SBCAPE could support some stronger/sustained low-topped thunderstorms late tonight/early Friday (09z-12z), potentially a few with weak/transient supercell characteristics owing to modest low-level hodograph curvature. Some gustier convectively related winds could materialize, but severe-caliber storms currently seem unlikely. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 03/03/2022 Read more

West Central Texas benefited from scattered showers, but all areas needed more rainfall. Wheat was germinating, but this will likely have a negative impact on overall grain production, as late-germinating wheat may not vernalize. Fields were being prepared for spring planting but moisture will be needed before seed goes in the ground. Livestock were being fed and hayed to maintain body condition. AgriLife (College Station, Texas), March 2, 2022 Some beneficial rain fell in the past two weeks in West Central Texas. Forages were extremely dry and very few winter annuals were present. Wildfire outbreaks occurred. Supplemental feeding of livestock remained heavy. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Feb 24, 2022 Conditions were still extremely dry in West Central Texas, despite some winter mix of precipitation. Even with the recent moisture, fire danger remained high. Moisture and warm weather were needed for grazing. Winter wheat was very poor. Stock tank levels were reaching critical levels. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Feb 15, 2022 Dryland wheat in West Central Texas was in a terrible state due to dry conditions. Heavy livestock feeding took place due to lack of green in pastures. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Feb 8, 2022 Conditions in West Central Texas remained very dry. The little wheat had emerged began to die out due to wind, drought and cold temperatures. Rangeland and pastures were in poor to fair condition. Most livestock producers began to feed relatively heavily. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Feb 1, 2022 West Central Texas is extremely dry. Severe drought conditions continued, and a few small fires were reported, but damage was minimal. Winter wheat was in very poor shape. Small grains were dying due to lack of soil moisture. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Jan 25, 2022

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Mar 2 14:44:02 UTC 2022.

No watches are valid as of Wed Mar 2 14:44:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 AM CST Wed Mar 02 2022 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the United States today or tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The continued prevalence of dry/stable conditions across the Lower 48 will continue to result in an essentially nil thunderstorm potential today and tonight. The only conceivable potential for a lightning flash or two would be across northwest Washington in association with a shortwave trough approaching the British Columbia/Washington coasts. However, current expectations are for the shallow convection-related thermodynamic profiles to remain too marginal for a meaningful chance (10+ percent) and duration/coverage of thunderstorms. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 03/02/2022 Read more

Open burning was prohibited in Plymouth County on March 1 by state officials. The ban will remain until conditions improve and open burning does not pose such a danger. KTIV-TV NBC 4 (Sioux City, Iowa), March 1, 2022

The Barton County Commission reimposed a burn ban on Feb. 23 due to dry, windy conditions in the county after numerous rural grass fires in the three weeks since the previous burn ban ended. Great Bend Tribune (Kan.), Feb 23, 2022

Atchison County commissioners ordered a burn ban for the county due to extreme fire danger stemming from dry conditions. The ban will remain in effect until sufficient rain falls. News Channel Nebraska (Norfolk, Neb.), March 1, 2022

A burn ban that began Feb. 8 remains in effect in Pottawattamie County. Firefighters responded to six fires on Feb. 28 and want to remind the public of the fire danger. KMTV Action 3 News (Omaha, Neb.), March 1, 2022 The Pottawattamie County Emergency Management Agency announced a burn ban Feb. 8. All open and controlled burning was prohibited within city limits in the county. WOWT-TV NBC 6 Omaha (Neb.), Feb 8, 2022

A county-wide burn ban took effect in Douglas County on Feb. 8 as unseasonably dry weather make outdoor burning too dangerous. All open burn permits were on hold as the ban remains in effect until further notice. KETV-TV (Omaha, Neb.), Feb 7, 2022

Zone 7 Water Agency declared a drought emergency in September, requiring a savings of 15% from all water service providers in Livermore, Pleasanton and the Dublin San Ramon Services District. The drought emergency remains in effect, despite recent rainfall. PleasantonWeekly.com (Calif.), Nov 21, 2021 The 15% water conservation mandate and drought-emergency status were still in effect for the Tri-Valley, despite recent rain. Livermore Independent (Calif.), Oct 27, 2021 Drought and low water storage led the Zone 7 Water Agency Board of Directors to unanimously declare a drought emergency and mandate 15% water use reduction for all Zone 7 retailers. July water savings was about 7%, compared to July 2020, so action is needed immediately to ensure adequate supplies in 2022. A Stage 2 Shortage Emergency and local drought emergency resolution were also approved at the Sept. 1 special board meeting. Zone 7 serves customers in the cities of Livermore and Pleasanton, Dublin-San Ramon Services District and the California Water Service Company. DanvilleSan Ramon (Calif.), Sept 2, 2021

 Prescribed fires are one of the most effective tools available to resource managers for restoring fire-adapted ecosystems and reducing the risk of high-severity wildfire. Fire managers use prescribed fire to improve forest health, remove hazardous fuels, increase firefighter safety, enhance wildlife habitat, and protect communities and watersheds.The decision to proceed continues to depend on multiple factors, including resource availability, fuel moisture levels, air quality and forecast weather.  Prescribed burns are designed to meet specific objectives and are always managed with firefighter and public safety as the first priority.With fire there is smoke, but compared to wildfires, prescribed fires are shorter in duration and are conducted under weather conditions to minimize the impact of smoke on the public. Fire crews use tactics such as starting early in the day and ending ignitions early in the afternoon to allow for the most ventilation possible throughout the burn and...

No watches are valid as of Mon Feb 28 14:49:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Feb 28 14:49:01 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Mon Feb 28 2022 Valid 281300Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are expected across parts of northeast Florida and southeast Georgia today. ...Northern Florida/southeast Georgia... A southern-stream shortwave trough will continue east-southeastward over Florida and southern Georgia today, while a cold front will sag southward across the Florida Peninsula. Even to the north of the southward-advancing front with a drying boundary layer, cool mid-level temperatures and modest elevated buoyancy may be sufficient for isolated elevated thunderstorms across northeast Florida and possibly far southeast Georgia. Any such lightning-producing convection should shift offshore early this evening. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 02/28/2022 Read more

The City of Norfolk and Madison County were not issuing burn permits for open burning as of Feb. 28. The fire chiefs from Madison County request that residents refrain from open burning and to be careful with used smoking materials. News Channel Nebraska (Norfolk, Neb.), Feb 28, 2022