Aggregator

Hay production was down, and farmers were hauling water for cattle as ponds went dry. MissouriIndependent.com (Jefferson City, Mo.), Sept 15, 2023

Sedan in southeast Kansas was running dangerously low on water. The local water supply in Chautauqua County was so low that the drinking water for several cities and rural water districts was in jeopardy. The intake pipe to a floating pump was at a steep angle as the water level went lower, stressing a flexible joint. If the joint were to break, thousands of people in three counties would lose their water supply. The southeast corner of Kansas does not have aquifers underground and relies instead on lakes and rivers. Sedan closed its city pool mid-summer to conserve water. The town’s only car wash also closed. Schools shut off drinking fountains and provided bottled water. Residents may not use municipal water for lawn or garden watering, so air conditioner condensation was being collected and used to water plants. Sedan has trimmed its water use by about 30% since entering a stage 3 water emergency in early August. The water district was moving the floating dock further into the lake to access a deeper part of the lake. MissouriIndependent.com (Jefferson City, Mo.), Sept 15, 2023

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2023 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS...AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginal severe wind and hail will be possible across the Texas Panhandle vicinity from about 5 to 9 PM CDT. ...Discussion... Aside from minor line adjustments, the reasoning regarding, and the areal extent of, the potential/isolated severe-weather threat for this afternoon and early evening across the Texas Panhandle/South Plains and vicinity remains consistent with prior outlooks. Thus, no major changes appear necessary at this time. ..Goss.. 09/18/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2023/ ...TX Panhandle... Clear skies are currently present across the TX Panhandle and western OK, where dewpoints are in the 50s to lower 60s and afternoon temperatures will approach 90F. The result will be a deeply mixed boundary layer with steep low-level lapse rates. A weak surface boundary will stretch across the region by late afternoon. Roughly half of the morning CAM solutions suggest widely scattered high-based thunderstorms will form along this boundary. Winds aloft are rather weak, so those cells that form will likely be rather disorganized and transient in intensity. However, the strongest cells could produce locally gusty winds and hail for a few hours early this evening. ...Elsewhere... Elsewhere, another mesoscale area of modest concern for strong storms would be over parts of eastern NE. If a storm or two can form in this area, gusty winds might be possible for a couple of hours. Finally, scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms may occur across much of the intermountain west today from MT/UT into the Four Corners region. Any cell in this area could produce a locally intense wind gust, but the overall coverage is expected to be low. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2023 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z Minor adjustments were made to the northern Plains Elevated highlights based on the latest guidance consensus. Farther west, locally elevated conditions are possible across portions of southeast Oregon, the northern Cascade gaps, and the Columbia Basin. However, the overlap of breezy winds and low RH is generally limited for these areas -- precluding highlights. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 09/18/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2023/ ...Synopsis... Some elevated fire weather concerns are possible on Tuesday across northeast Montana and northwest North Dakota. The mid-level shortwave trough, currently over the northeast Pacific which will traverse the Pacific Northwest today, will move into the northern Plains on Tuesday. As this occurs, the surface front/low-pressure center will start to accelerate east. As it departs, some strong westerly/northwesterly winds are expected to the west of the surface low. There is still considerable spread within guidance regarding how dry/breezy conditions will be in this region. RH ranges from 15 percent to 40 percent and winds range from 10 to 15 mph all the way to 25 to 30 mph. An Elevated delineation should cover this threat and its associated uncertainties for the time being with additional refinement likely needed in later outlooks as the forecast evolution becomes more clear. Elsewhere, no significant fire weather concerns are anticipated on Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181742
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Sep 18 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central East Pacific (EP95):
Satellite imagery indicates a broad area of low pressure located
well south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula is gradually becoming better defined. The system continues
to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity, and
environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for
further development through midweek. A tropical depression is likely
to form during the next couple of days while the system moves
generally west-northwestward over the central and western portions
of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster A. Reinhart/B. Reinhart

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2023 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday and Tuesday night across portions of the southern Great Plains. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are the primary hazards. ...Synopsis... Relatively zonal mid-level flow is expected across much of the U.S. Tuesday, though an upper trough is progged to dig southward across British Columbia toward -- and eventually into -- the Pacific Northwest. Otherwise, multiple mid-level perturbations embedded within the quasi-zonal flow will cross central portions of the country. At the surface, lee troughing is generally progged across the Plains, as a result of the background upper-level westerlies across the interior West. Some northward transport of low-level moisture will support diurnally maximized destabilization, which -- combined with ascent provided by the aforementioned mid-level perturbations -- will support rounds of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms over the southern Plains during the period. ...Portions of the Southern Plains... Northward advection of low-level moisture, combined with diurnal heating beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates accompanying the short-wave troughing aloft will support moderate destabilization. By late afternoon, 1500 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE is expected across much of Oklahoma and adjacent portions of western and central Texas. Meanwhile, with around 30 kt southwesterly 850 mb flow beneath 30-40 kt 500 mb westerlies, shear will support organized/rotating storms with initial convective development, with later, upscale growth into an MCS possible, that would shift across central Oklahoma and possibly adjacent portions of Texas. Other, more isolated storms may also develop southwestward along the trough/dryline, as far southwestward as roughly the Concho Valley area, where a few storms with mid-level rotation may evolve. Given the likelihood for supercells within the moderately unstable environment, large to very large hail will be possible with the initial convection, though locally damaging wind gusts may also occur given the deep mixed layer, and resulting sub-cloud evaporative effects. Damaging wind potential may continue into the overnight hours, particularly if storms grow upscale as anticipated. Additionally, redevelopment of smaller clusters of storms should occur near convective outflows as a nocturnal low-level jet strengthens, resulting in multiple rounds of storms in some areas. ...Southern Florida Peninsula... Latest guidance indicates that scattered thunderstorm development will occur Tuesday afternoon, initially focused near the southeastern FL coast but drifting inland with time in tandem with sea-breeze boundary advance. Model soundings depict 1000-1500 J/kg, though with relatively weak lapse rates aloft. Shear should remain rather modest, suggesting weakly organized storms at best. Still, potential for a damaging gust or two cannot be completely ruled out during the afternoon. ..Goss.. 09/18/2023 Read more

U.S. Hard Red Winter Wheat exports were forecast to be down 10 million bushels this month to 155 million bushels, the lowest since records began in 1973-1974. Corn and soybeans have gained in U.S. acreage, while HRW have endured a downturn in acres in many areas, leaving exports in this class less competitive on the global market. Drought has also affected the crop in consecutive years, contributing to lower crop prospects and this class being less competitive with other suppliers like Russia and the European Union. DRGNews (Pierre, S.D.), Sept 18, 2023

A winery in Elizabeth, Ill. was in its second to last week of harvest of grapes that were gorgeous and free of disease and rot, thanks to the dry weather. Mildew was almost non-existent. WQAD News 8 (Davenport, Iowa), Sept 18, 2023

Historic heat, drought and plenty of dry vegetation to burn were contributing to the unprecedented wildfire season, in which more than 550 blazes burned in August alone, charring more than 60,000 acres of land, incinerating homes and causing towns to evacuate. The largest fire in Louisiana, the Tiger Island Fire, has been burning for almost a month, has blackened more than 31,000 acres, which is more land than usually burns in a year. The entire town of Merryville, population 1,200 people, had to evacuate. Louisiana is typically dealing with hurricanes and flooding at this time of year rather than wildfires. Firefighters have been overworked this summer. The Associated Press (Baton Rouge, La.), Sept 17, 2023

Residents in the City of Oronoco were asked to use less water by the Rochester Public Utilities. Residents of Albert Lea were urged to reduce outdoor water use to guard underground drinking water supplies. The people of Lanesboro were also asked to conserve water. the Upper Mississippi-Black-Root watershed has been elevated to the Drought Restrictive Response Phase. KIMT 3 (Rochester, Minn.), Sept 18, 2023

Drought in Mississippi has dried up pastures and water supplies, forcing farmers to sell cattle. A sale barn in Scott County broke a record for cattle sales the first week of September when 2,800 livestock were sold. That record was broken the second week of September and is expected to be broken again next week. Altogether, about 8,500 cattle have been auctioned at the sale barn in the past three weeks. WLBT Online (Jackson, Miss.), Sept 18, 2023 Farmers across Mississippi have begun to sell livestock, due to drought. More than 3,000 head of cattle were sold on Monday, Sept. 11 in Forest at the Tadlock Stockyard for lack of grass for the cattle to eat. Calves were being sold early at lighter weights because the calves cannot gain weight on the sparse pasture. The stockyard owner said that 90% of the cattle were sold to out-of-state buyers. Water for livestock was getting low. Cattle got bogged down in an empty pond, trying to get the last of the water. The cattle had to be moved elsewhere. More farmers have taken their lives in the past couple of years, due to stress and unforeseen circumstances. WJTV TV 12 (Jackson, Miss.), Sept 13, 2023

No watches are valid as of Sun Sep 17 22:29:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Sep 17 22:29:01 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2023 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z ...Day 3/Tuesday... Within the base of a large-scale trough over western Canada, a belt of enhanced low/mid-level westerly flow will persist from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Plains. Breezy post-frontal surface winds are expected across portions of the Northwest and northern Plains on Day 3/Tuesday, though limited boundary-layer heating/mixing will temper RH reductions and the potential for the stronger flow aloft to mix to the surface. While elevated fire-weather conditions are possible for both areas, confidence in the development of critical conditions is currently low. ...Days 4-8/Wednesday-Sunday... A substantial mid/upper-level jet streak will advance southward along the West Coast, supporting the development of a midlevel cut-off low over the western CONUS. On Day 4/Wednesday, a related surface low will deepen over the Great Basin, with a tightening surface pressure gradient along its northwestern periphery. As a result, northerly surface winds will strengthen across portions of Oregon, though generally cool surface temperatures should limit RH reductions. While this may still support some increase in fire-weather concerns, the limited overlap of strong winds and low RH casts uncertainty on the overall threat -- precluding Critical probabilities at this time. Along the southern/eastern peripheries of the cut-off low, a prolonged period of dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of the Southwest into the southern/central Rockies. While this will lead to increasing fire-weather concerns on a localized basis, much of this area has experienced appreciable rainfall -- limiting confidence in where the fire-weather threat will be maximized. ..Weinman.. 09/17/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2023 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TO FAR SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and a tornado or two remain possible across portions of the southeast Atlantic coastal region through early tonight. ...Discussion... Aside from minor line adjustments, including a decrease of the western extent of the southeastern U.S. MRGL risk area to reflect convective advance/evolution, no appreciable changes to outlook areas or forecast reasoning appear necessary at this time. ..Goss.. 09/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2023/ ...Southeast Coastal Plain... A large and deepening upper trough is present today over much of the eastern US, with its associated surface cold front moving into the southeast states. Along and ahead of the front, ample low level moisture and moderate CAPE values are present from southeast NC into parts of SC/GA and FL. Visible satellite imagery shows considerable clouds across much of this region, which will limit daytime heating to the 70s and 80s. However, greater heating will be associated with a region of more clear skies over southern GA and eventually over southeast SC. Several morning CAM solutions focus on this area for robust afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings in this area show rather weak mid-level lapse rates, a lack of persistent mid-level dry air, and winds below 3km mainly less than 20kt. This suggests a risk of locally gusty winds, but only a marginal threat of severe gusts. A brief tornado or two is also possible early this evening over northeast SC and southeast NC where low-level shear will be slightly stronger. Therefore will maintain ongoing MRGL risk category. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA... ...Montana... A Critical area was added over portions of central and eastern Montana, where confidence in the overlap of 15-20 percent RH and sustained westerly surface winds near 20 mph has increased based on the latest guidance consensus. Given very dry fuels over this area, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Upon collaboration with fire-weather partners and local forecast offices, the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights were trimmed over much of the Sierra -- where fuels remain too wet for an appreciable fire-weather risk. ...Northern Cascades/Columbia Basin... Locally critical conditions are possible primarily within gap-flow areas of the northern Cascades. However, these conditions appear too localized for Critical highlights. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 09/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0117 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2023/ ...Synopsis... A surface cyclone will move across southern Alberta on Monday with a cold front extending into the northern Plains. In the wake of this cold front, dry and breezy conditions are expected across Montana and western North Dakota with winds of 15 to 20 mph and relative humidity of 13 to 18 percent. Fuels in this region, are critically dry, particularly across northeast Montana and northwest North Dakota where less than an inch of precipitation has fallen in the last 30 days. Farther west, stronger mid-level flow will overspread the Columbia Basin as the next shortwave trough approaches. Some of this stronger flow may mix to the surface amid a deepening boundary layer Monday afternoon/evening. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the central/northern Sierra and the Klamath mountains Monday afternoon/evening. These storms will form in an environment with PWAT around 0.5 inches. Therefore, storms are expected to be mostly dry with LCLs around 10kft. An IsoDryT delineation has been added across this area to address this threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171730
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Sep 17 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central East Pacific:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located well south of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula continue to show signs of becoming better
organized. This system is currently elongated, but environmental
conditions are expected to allow for additional development during
the next few days. A tropical depression is expected to form by the
middle of the week while the system moves west-northwestward over
the central and western portions of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Sep 16 21:31:02 UTC 2023.