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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Fri Oct 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains generally on track. The primary change made to this outlook was to expand the Elevated area farther northeast into eastern GA and northwestern SC. Here, the latest guidance consensus depicts up to 15 mph sustained northwesterly winds overlapping with 20-30 percent RH for at least a few hours tomorrow afternoon behind the surface cold front. Fuels are also at least modestly receptive to wildfire spread. There is some question regarding the robustness of wildfire-spread potential across portions of western into central LA, which has received 1-2 inches of rain within the past 48 hours. Still, the extent of the ongoing drought and rapid drying of finer grasses may still support appreciable fire spread. ..Squitieri.. 10/06/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri Oct 06 2023/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified large-scale trough will shift slowly eastward from the Ohio Valley toward the Northeast, while an expansive surface anticyclone moves southward across the central/southern Plains -- in the wake of a southeastward-moving cold front over the Gulf of Mexico. ...Central Gulf Coast and Southeast... Along the southeastern periphery of the surface anticyclone, an enhanced pressure gradient will favor 10-15 mph sustained northerly surface winds across the central Gulf Coast and Southeast. These breezy post-frontal winds, combined with 25 percent minimum RH, will support elevated fire-weather conditions. While rainfall is expected across parts of the area on Day 1/Friday, ongoing severe to exceptional drought and 80th-90th percentile ERCs suggest fuels will still be receptive to fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Hawaii Island ranged from being abnormally dry to a touch of extreme drought. The Hawaiʻi County Department of Water Supply warned that water customers will be asked to conserve water if pumping capabilities cannot keep up with demand. The Department of Water Supply will continue to monitor its 23 water systems. Big Island Video News (Hilo, Hawaii), Oct 5, 2023

The Mississippi River was 0.3 feet at Vicksburg River gauge, but ought to be at 20 feet. Barges can usually be loaded to a draft of 12 feet, but with the low water, drafts were being limited to 10 feet to avoid groundings. WLBT Online (Jackson, Miss.), Oct 5, 2023

Salt water advancing up the Mississippi River from the Gulf of Mexico toward New Orleans was moving more slowly than anticipated. The salt water may reach New Orleans and Jefferson Parish in late November rather than late October. Salinity is also expected to not exceed 250 parts per million, a level that prompts health warnings. Additional rains could ease the threat further. Of note in the latest projections, the underwater sill has been effective, and weather and river forecasts were more optimistic. The Associated Press (New Orleans, La.), Oct 5, 2023

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 052346
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Oct 5 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Lidia, located several hundred miles southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico.

South of Southern Mexico (EP99):
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated with a trough of low
pressure. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
gradual development during the next several days, and a tropical
depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week while
the disturbance moves slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Western East Pacific:
An elongated area of low pressure located about 1200 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce disorganized thunderstorms. Any development of this system
would be slow to occur while it moves little during the next couple
of days. By this weekend, environmental conditions are forecast to
become less conducive for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

No watches are valid as of Thu Oct 5 23:20:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Oct 5 23:20:02 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CDT Thu Oct 05 2023 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z Fire weather potential is expected to generally be low through the extended period with the exception of the Southeast region this weekend. Long-range guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the evolution of the synoptic regime over the weekend and into next week. The longwave trough currently over the central CONUS is forecast to shift east over the weekend and slowly deamplify over the Great Lakes through early next week. Upper ridging will remain in place across the western half of the country with a broad northwesterly flow regime across the Plains. This synoptic regime will favor cool, dry conditions east of the Rockies and warm conditions across the Southwest/West Coast. Fuels may undergo drying across the Southeast and Southwest where ensemble guidance shows low probability for substantial precipitation until the middle of next week. ...D3/Saturday - Southeast... Fire weather concerns may emerge across the Southeast states on D3/Saturday as a dry offshore flow regime becomes established behind a cold frontal passage on Friday. While some spread is noted in deterministic solutions, ensemble output hints at widespread gradient winds between 15-20 mph from southern MS to central GA. Additionally, a dry continental air mass advecting into the region should promote RH reductions into the 20s, resulting in areas of elevated (to perhaps locally critical) fire weather conditions. Confidence in such conditions is highest across southeast AL into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle, but may extend into much of AL, GA, and western MS based on a few drier/windier solutions. Recent fuel analyses place ERC values near the 80th to 90th percentile, suggesting fuels should support the fire weather concerns. ...D6/Tuesday and D7/Wednesday - Southwest and Southern High Plains... Most long-range solutions show a low-amplitude upper trough migrating into the Four Corners region by the middle of next week as the upper ridge breaks down. This will promote surface pressure falls across the Four Corners and central/southern High Plains D6/Tuesday into D7/Wednesday. Strengthening low-level flow coupled with antecedent dry conditions may support fire weather concerns on both of these days. However, considerable spread is noted in deterministic solutions regarding the placement and magnitude of the upper wave. Likewise, ensemble guidance shows only a modest signal for critical fire weather conditions despite the generally favorable synoptic regime. This uncertainty, coupled with recent rainfall over the southern High Plains and much of the Rockies, precludes introducing any risk areas. ..Moore.. 10/05/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 05 Oct 2023 20:37:46 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 05 Oct 2023 21:29:52 GMT

Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Oct 05 2023 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 052036 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023 300 PM MDT Thu Oct 05 2023 Lidia's overall satellite depiction has not changed much from the previous advisory. There continues to be intermittent burst of deeper convection within the convective shield. A SSMIS microwave pass depicts that the low-level center remains displaced to the east of the mid-level core, suggesting that Lidia has not become any better organized as it continues to battle easterly wind shear. The subjective and objective intensity estimates range from 50 to 65 kt. A partial scatterometer pass hit the NW side of the system but did not depict winds as high as the current estimates, but missed the central core. Given the overall satellite depiction remains similar to this morning, the peak intensity remains 50 kt for this advisory. Lidia continues to move slowly northwestward at 315/3 kt. The system is being steered by a strengthening mid-level ridge centered over central Mexico. As the ridge strengthens, the system will continue to move slowly and turn towards west-northwest then westward. In a few days, a mid-/upper-level trough is forecast to approach from the northwest which will weaken the aforementioned ridge. This will induce another turn of Lidia to the northwest, then north to northeastward through the end of the forecast period. There continues to be some spread within the guidance envelope on the along-track forward speed and when the turn back to the northeast occurs later in the forecast period. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous in the short-term, but is a little faster towards the end of the forecast period based on a blend of the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids. Moderate deep-layer easterly shear should continue over Lidia throughout the forecast period. Sea surface temperatures remain warm along the forecast track, with moist mid-level RH values the next few days. The cyclone should remain a small compact system, which may allow for fluctuations in intensity. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous, and Lidia could become a hurricane this weekend. Some weakening is forecast in about 3 days due to an increase in drier mid-level air and continued easterly shear. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, which lies near the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 16.0N 109.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 16.1N 110.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 16.2N 111.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 16.2N 112.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 16.4N 113.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 08/0600Z 17.0N 113.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 17.5N 113.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 18.3N 113.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 10/1800Z 18.8N 111.6W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 05 2023 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 052036 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM LIDIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023 2100 UTC THU OCT 05 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LIDIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 15N 110W 34 14 3(17) 4(21) 2(23) 3(26) 2(28) 3(31) 20N 110W 34 1 X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 4( 8) 6(14) 9(23) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 2( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) 10(21) 12(33) 11(44) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 11(15) 41(56) 10(66) 1(67) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 7(24) 1(25) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) 15N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 10(14) 14(28) 4(32) 1(33) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 13(17) 11(28) 3(31) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 05 2023 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 052035 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023 2100 UTC THU OCT 05 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 109.9W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 109.9W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 109.8W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.1N 110.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 16.2N 111.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.2N 112.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.4N 113.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.0N 113.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 17.5N 113.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 18.3N 113.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 18.8N 111.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 109.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Oct 05 2023 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 052035 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lidia Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023 300 PM MDT Thu Oct 05 2023 ...LIDIA LEISURELY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 109.9W ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 109.9 West. Lidia is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h) and a general northwest to west-northwest motion is expected through tonight. A turn toward the west is expected by Friday, followed by a turn back toward the west-northwest and then northwest later this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Lidia could become a hurricane this weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Kelly

...LIDIA LEISURELY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... As of 3:00 PM MDT Thu Oct 5 the center of Lidia was located near 16.0, -109.9 with movement NW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Oct 05 2023 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms appear unlikely through the remainder of the Day 1 period. An outflow-reinforced boundary continues to push rapidly southward across Deep South TX, near the US/MX border at 20Z. Given the very moist air mass across the region, elevated instability will continue to support scattered storms, but strong to severe gust potential will be reduced as the outflow undercuts the remaining areas of warmer surface air. As such, wind probabilities have been removed for the remainder of the period. Elsewhere, weak/shallow convection over the Upper Great Lakes region in association with cold air beneath the upper trough is forecast to dwindle with the loss of heating later this afternoon, and as cooler/drier air pushes in from the west. ..Jewell.. 10/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Thu Oct 05 2023/ ...Deep South TX... Convection has largely moved offshore this morning, but a slow-moving, small cluster persists over a portion of the Brush Country along a composite outflow-enhanced cold front moving south. Very rich western Gulf moisture characterized by 75-80 F surface dew points remains prevalent ahead of the front with ample insolation. This may support an uptick in thunderstorm intensity and coverage for a few hours centered on mid to late afternoon. While the combination of deep-layer shear and mid-level lapse rates will remain modest, there will be potential for 45-60 mph gusts in a couple multicell clusters approaching the Lower Rio Grande Valley. Read more

South Carolina officials say that the state is in a drought advisory, due to the lack of rain and intense heat. The situation is being monitored. People should consider how much water they use. WSPA Online (Spartanburg, S.C.), Oct 3, 2023

Drought was causing the limestone county roads in Ellis County to break down. The surface had degraded into little pebbles that make it difficult for a vehicle to keep traction. County crews were working on the roads, trying to improve them by spraying water on them. KWCH 12 (Wichita, Kan.), Oct 3, 2023

Extension agents from Madison, Greene, Orange and Rappahannock counties also intend to seek disaster declarations for their counties as Culpeper County has done. Culpeper Star-Exponent (Va.), Oct 5, 2023