Aggregator

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 072320
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Oct 7 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Lidia, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

South of Southern Mexico (EP99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located a couple of hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico, are
beginning to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions
appear favorable for further development, and a tropical depression
is expected to form during the next day or so. The disturbance
is forecast to move slowly west-northwestward through tonight, and
then turn northward and move toward the southern coast of Mexico
late Sunday and Monday. Tropical storm watches or warnings could
be required for a portion of the coast of southern Mexico this
evening or overnight, and interests in this area should monitor
the progress of this system. Regardless of development, this system
is likely to produce heavy rainfall along portions of the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 07 Oct 2023 20:48:55 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 07 Oct 2023 21:23:12 GMT

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Oct 07 2023 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 072047 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023 300 PM MDT Sat Oct 07 2023 Recent partial ASCAT passes and infrared satellite imagery indicate that the center of Lidia has been located well underneath the large, cold convective canopy for the past several hours. This suggests that the northeasterly to easterly shear may have decreased slightly compared to yesterday. However, recent SSMIS and GMI passes indicate that the structure has not improved much. The recent ASCAT passes also suggest that the winds have not increased yet. Despite subjective Dvorak estimates ranging from 65 to 77 kt and objective estimates ranging from 51 to 63 kt, the intensity is held at 55 kt for this advisory based on the ASCAT data. There is not much change to the track forecast reasoning. The microwave and ASCAT data indicate that Lidia has not made any significant northward progress yet. The motion is estimated at 280/3 kt. A gradual turn to the north is expected to occur over the next 24 h, after which time, the cyclone is expected to begin interacting with an approaching trough from the north. This interaction will result in an acceleration early next week toward the northeast and in the general direction of west-central Mexico. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous forecast through 60 h, but shows a faster northeastward motion around the time of landfall and after landfall, and is in best agreement with the TVCE consensus aid. It should be noted that there remains significant along-track spread in the guidance, meaning that there is some uncertainty in the timing of landfall. Moderate easterly shear is likely to inhibit significant intensification through early Sunday. However, the shear is expected to briefly relax late Sunday through Monday night, as the cyclone moves northward over warm sea-surface temperatures. Lidia is therefore forecast to intensify to hurricane strength by Monday. It should be noted that Lidia could intensify a bit more quickly than forecast, considering the center is now well underneath the cold convective canopy. As the storm approaches landfall in Mexico, southwesterly shear is expected to increase, but this shear may not have time to affect the cyclone much before it makes landfall. Furthermore, it should be noted that the deterministic GFS global model depicts very low central pressures, suggesting Lidia could maintain hurricane intensity through landfall. Other reliable statistical models and consensus aids are not as aggressive. The NHC forecast is similar to the prior forecast, except it brings Lidia to hurricane strength a bit sooner. Confidence in the intensity forecast is below average. Interests in west-central Mexico should remain attentive to forecast updates in the coming days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 16.1N 112.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 16.6N 112.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 17.4N 112.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 18.2N 112.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 18.8N 111.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 10/0600Z 19.3N 110.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 20.3N 107.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 22.9N 103.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 120H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Berg

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Oct 07 2023 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 072046 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lidia Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023 300 PM MDT Sat Oct 07 2023 ...LIDIA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE AND APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 112.5W ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 112.5 West. Lidia is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A gradual turn toward the north is expected on Sunday, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected, and Lidia is forecast to become a hurricane in a couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Lidia will begin to affect the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California peninsula today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Berg

...LIDIA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE AND APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... As of 3:00 PM MDT Sat Oct 7 the center of Lidia was located near 16.1, -112.5 with movement W at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 07 2023 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 072046 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM LIDIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023 2100 UTC SAT OCT 07 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LIDIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 1(12) X(12) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 22(50) X(50) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) X(17) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) X(18) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 30(43) X(43) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) X(25) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) X(13) 15N 110W 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) 20N 110W 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 20(29) 40(69) X(69) X(69) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 23(27) X(27) X(27) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 9(11) 23(34) 33(67) 16(83) X(83) X(83) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) 18(43) X(43) X(43) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 9(17) 1(18) X(18) ISLA CLARION 34 3 10(13) 7(20) 4(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) 15N 115W 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 115W 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/BERG

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 07 2023 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 072045 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023 2100 UTC SAT OCT 07 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 112.5W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 40SE 50SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 110SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 112.5W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 112.4W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 16.6N 112.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 40SE 50SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 100SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 17.4N 112.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 90SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 18.2N 112.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 80SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 18.8N 111.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 70SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 19.3N 110.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 80SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 20.3N 107.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 80SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 22.9N 103.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 112.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/BERG

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 PM CDT Sat Oct 07 2023 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... Minor adjustments were made to the mid-Atlantic/northeast thunder area, otherwise no changes were made with this outlook. ..Bunting.. 10/07/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Sat Oct 07 2023/ Relatively dry and stable conditions are expected across most of the CONUS today, with only a few small areas of apparent risk for thunderstorms. These include beneath a cold upper low over the Northeast states, and beneath an upper ridge over the Desert Southwest. Weak instability is expected to preclude organized severe storms in both regions today. Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CDT Sat Oct 07 2023 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Broad mid-upper troughing will persist across the eastern United States through the middle of next week. This pattern will favor deep-layer northwesterly flow across much of the Central United States, ushering in cooler, drier conditions. By mid-to-late week another mid-upper-level trough will move through the West and amplify across the Rocky Mountains. Guidance suggests that dry and windy conditions will develop across portions of the West into the southern Plains as the tough amplifies mid-to-late week. However, at this point, fuel moisture should remain high enough that large-scale fire-weather concerns look to be low. This will continued to be monitored. ..Marsh.. 10/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 062324
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Oct 6 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Lidia, located several hundred miles south of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

South of Southern Mexico (EP99):
Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized in
association with an area of low pressure centered a couple of
hundred miles southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental
conditions are expected to support further development of this
system during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form this weekend. The disturbance is forecast to move
slowly west-northwestward for the next day or so, and then turn
northward and move toward the southern coast of Mexico late Sunday
and Monday. Regardless of development, this system could produce
heavy rainfall along portions of the coast of southern and
southwestern Mexico through early next week. Interests in this area
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

No watches are valid as of Fri Oct 6 21:59:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Oct 6 21:59:02 UTC 2023.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 06 Oct 2023 20:40:53 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 06 Oct 2023 21:23:09 GMT

Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Oct 06 2023 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 062038 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023 300 PM MDT Fri Oct 06 2023 Lidia remains sheared, with its low-level center nearly exposed in recent visible satellite imagery. Confidence in the center position of Lidia is therefore much higher than it was six hours ago. Recent Dvorak intensity fixes still appear to be inflated relative to Lidia's observed structure. Thus, the intensity estimate is again based heavily on objective techniques that incorporate microwave data, such as the UW-CIMSS DMINT, which still support an intensity near 60 kt. For the next 2-3 days, confidence in the NHC track and intensity forecasts is fairly high. Lidia is forecast to continue moving generally westward to west-northwestward today, and then gradually turn northward through the weekend. The tropical storm will likely remain sheared during this time, which should result in only small fluctuations in intensity. Lidia could still become a hurricane tonight or over the weekend. Beyond about 72 h, the forecast uncertainty increases substantially. The tropical storm is forecast to interact with a mid-latitude short-wave trough, which should cause it to accelerate northeastward. The trough interaction will also cause a change in the environmental mid- to upper-level wind pattern, resulting in a southwesterly shear vector and an increase in upper-level difluence. Some models, including both HAFS-A and HAFS-B, indicate that Lidia could begin to strengthen at this time, while others keep it steady-state and strongly sheared. There is also uncertainty with the forward speed of Lidia. For instance, the GFS shows a much faster forward speed than most other models. Run-to-run consistency of the models in the 4-5 day time frame has been poor today, so only very small adjustments were made to the NHC forecast at this time. Larger changes may be required over the weekend as the forecast becomes clearer. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 16.4N 111.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 16.4N 112.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 16.6N 112.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 17.0N 113.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 17.6N 113.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 09/0600Z 18.2N 113.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 18.7N 112.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 19.8N 109.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 21.5N 107.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Delgado

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 06 2023 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 062037 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM LIDIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023 2100 UTC FRI OCT 06 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LIDIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 6(15) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 15N 110W 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 3(10) 3(13) 1(14) 20N 110W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 9(15) 30(45) 9(54) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 3(17) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 6(14) 22(36) 25(61) 2(63) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 5( 6) 14(20) 1(21) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) ISLA CLARION 34 1 5( 6) 22(28) 19(47) 15(62) 2(64) X(64) ISLA CLARION 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 9(19) 1(20) X(20) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 115W 34 1 3( 4) 6(10) 3(13) 4(17) 1(18) X(18) 20N 115W 34 1 1( 2) 4( 6) 6(12) 13(25) 3(28) X(28) $$ FORECASTER DELGADO/D. ZELINSKY

Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Oct 06 2023 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 062037 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lidia Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023 300 PM MDT Fri Oct 06 2023 ...SHEARED LIDIA REMAINS NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 111.2W ABOUT 490 MI...785 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 111.2 West. Lidia is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue over the next day, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest, and then north, through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is possible during the next day or two, and Lidia could become a hurricane tonight or over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Lidia will begin to affect the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California peninsula on Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Delgado/D. Zelinsky

...SHEARED LIDIA REMAINS NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY... As of 3:00 PM MDT Fri Oct 6 the center of Lidia was located near 16.4, -111.2 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 06 2023 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 062037 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023 2100 UTC FRI OCT 06 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 111.2W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 60SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 111.2W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 111.0W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.4N 112.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.6N 112.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.0N 113.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 17.6N 113.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 18.2N 113.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 18.7N 112.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 19.8N 109.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 21.5N 107.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 111.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER DELGADO/D. ZELINSKY

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri Oct 06 2023 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms capable of gusty/damaging wind gusts may occur this afternoon in southwest Lower Michigan. No changes were made to the previous outlook. A low-end chance of convectively enhanced wind gusts remains over parts of western Lower MI over the next few hours as precipitation associated with the upper vort max shifts east. Modest heating and steepened lapse rates may aid convective gusts. ..Jewell.. 10/06/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Fri Oct 06 2023/ ...Southwest Lower MI... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deepening upper trough over the upper midwest digging into the western Great Lakes. This trough and its associated surface cold front will move across southern Lake Michigan this afternoon during the peak-heating period. Strong heating ahead of the front is leading to steep low-level lapse rates. CAPE values will be weak (less than 500 J/kg). However, given the favorable timing of the system, strong winds aloft, and steep low-level lapse rates, it appears possible that a few strong/severe wind gusts could occur with showers/thunderstorms along the coast of southwest Lower MI. Therefore have added a small MRGL risk area for this scenario. Cold temperatures aloft and ambient vorticity near the upper trough could also result in isolated waterspouts in this area. Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Fri Oct 06 2023 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Broad upper troughing should persist across the eastern CONUS through early next week, supporting a deep-layer northwesterly flow regime across the central/northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley, and overall cooler conditions from the OH Valley eastward. From mid to late next week, another mid-level trough amplifies over the Rockies and ejects into the Plains states, supporting surface cyclone development and a rapid return of low-level moisture from the central/southern Plains into the Southeast. Current medium range guidance consensus suggests that potentially dry and windy conditions may accompany the next amplifying mid-level trough across portions of the Interior West into the southern High Plains mid to late next week. However, fuel receptiveness is not overly robust at the moment, and questions remain whether this will change next week, precluding fire weather highlights this outlook. Dry conditions should persist across the Southeast Days 3-6/Sunday-Wednesday. However, guidance shows a diffuse surface pressure gradient prior to surface cyclone arrival, resulting in a weak synoptic wind field, keeping wildfire-spread potential localized. ..Squitieri.. 10/06/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more