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No watches are valid as of Fri Oct 6 21:59:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Oct 6 21:59:02 UTC 2023.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 06 Oct 2023 20:40:53 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 06 Oct 2023 21:23:09 GMT

Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Oct 06 2023 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 062038 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023 300 PM MDT Fri Oct 06 2023 Lidia remains sheared, with its low-level center nearly exposed in recent visible satellite imagery. Confidence in the center position of Lidia is therefore much higher than it was six hours ago. Recent Dvorak intensity fixes still appear to be inflated relative to Lidia's observed structure. Thus, the intensity estimate is again based heavily on objective techniques that incorporate microwave data, such as the UW-CIMSS DMINT, which still support an intensity near 60 kt. For the next 2-3 days, confidence in the NHC track and intensity forecasts is fairly high. Lidia is forecast to continue moving generally westward to west-northwestward today, and then gradually turn northward through the weekend. The tropical storm will likely remain sheared during this time, which should result in only small fluctuations in intensity. Lidia could still become a hurricane tonight or over the weekend. Beyond about 72 h, the forecast uncertainty increases substantially. The tropical storm is forecast to interact with a mid-latitude short-wave trough, which should cause it to accelerate northeastward. The trough interaction will also cause a change in the environmental mid- to upper-level wind pattern, resulting in a southwesterly shear vector and an increase in upper-level difluence. Some models, including both HAFS-A and HAFS-B, indicate that Lidia could begin to strengthen at this time, while others keep it steady-state and strongly sheared. There is also uncertainty with the forward speed of Lidia. For instance, the GFS shows a much faster forward speed than most other models. Run-to-run consistency of the models in the 4-5 day time frame has been poor today, so only very small adjustments were made to the NHC forecast at this time. Larger changes may be required over the weekend as the forecast becomes clearer. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 16.4N 111.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 16.4N 112.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 16.6N 112.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 17.0N 113.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 17.6N 113.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 09/0600Z 18.2N 113.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 18.7N 112.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 19.8N 109.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 21.5N 107.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Delgado

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 06 2023 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 062037 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM LIDIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023 2100 UTC FRI OCT 06 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LIDIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 6(15) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 15N 110W 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 3(10) 3(13) 1(14) 20N 110W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 9(15) 30(45) 9(54) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 3(17) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 6(14) 22(36) 25(61) 2(63) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 5( 6) 14(20) 1(21) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) ISLA CLARION 34 1 5( 6) 22(28) 19(47) 15(62) 2(64) X(64) ISLA CLARION 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 9(19) 1(20) X(20) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 115W 34 1 3( 4) 6(10) 3(13) 4(17) 1(18) X(18) 20N 115W 34 1 1( 2) 4( 6) 6(12) 13(25) 3(28) X(28) $$ FORECASTER DELGADO/D. ZELINSKY

Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Oct 06 2023 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 062037 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lidia Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023 300 PM MDT Fri Oct 06 2023 ...SHEARED LIDIA REMAINS NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 111.2W ABOUT 490 MI...785 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 111.2 West. Lidia is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue over the next day, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest, and then north, through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is possible during the next day or two, and Lidia could become a hurricane tonight or over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Lidia will begin to affect the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California peninsula on Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Delgado/D. Zelinsky

...SHEARED LIDIA REMAINS NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY... As of 3:00 PM MDT Fri Oct 6 the center of Lidia was located near 16.4, -111.2 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 06 2023 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 062037 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023 2100 UTC FRI OCT 06 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 111.2W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 60SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 111.2W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 111.0W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.4N 112.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.6N 112.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.0N 113.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 17.6N 113.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 18.2N 113.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 18.7N 112.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 19.8N 109.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 21.5N 107.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 111.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER DELGADO/D. ZELINSKY

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri Oct 06 2023 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms capable of gusty/damaging wind gusts may occur this afternoon in southwest Lower Michigan. No changes were made to the previous outlook. A low-end chance of convectively enhanced wind gusts remains over parts of western Lower MI over the next few hours as precipitation associated with the upper vort max shifts east. Modest heating and steepened lapse rates may aid convective gusts. ..Jewell.. 10/06/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Fri Oct 06 2023/ ...Southwest Lower MI... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deepening upper trough over the upper midwest digging into the western Great Lakes. This trough and its associated surface cold front will move across southern Lake Michigan this afternoon during the peak-heating period. Strong heating ahead of the front is leading to steep low-level lapse rates. CAPE values will be weak (less than 500 J/kg). However, given the favorable timing of the system, strong winds aloft, and steep low-level lapse rates, it appears possible that a few strong/severe wind gusts could occur with showers/thunderstorms along the coast of southwest Lower MI. Therefore have added a small MRGL risk area for this scenario. Cold temperatures aloft and ambient vorticity near the upper trough could also result in isolated waterspouts in this area. Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Fri Oct 06 2023 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Broad upper troughing should persist across the eastern CONUS through early next week, supporting a deep-layer northwesterly flow regime across the central/northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley, and overall cooler conditions from the OH Valley eastward. From mid to late next week, another mid-level trough amplifies over the Rockies and ejects into the Plains states, supporting surface cyclone development and a rapid return of low-level moisture from the central/southern Plains into the Southeast. Current medium range guidance consensus suggests that potentially dry and windy conditions may accompany the next amplifying mid-level trough across portions of the Interior West into the southern High Plains mid to late next week. However, fuel receptiveness is not overly robust at the moment, and questions remain whether this will change next week, precluding fire weather highlights this outlook. Dry conditions should persist across the Southeast Days 3-6/Sunday-Wednesday. However, guidance shows a diffuse surface pressure gradient prior to surface cyclone arrival, resulting in a weak synoptic wind field, keeping wildfire-spread potential localized. ..Squitieri.. 10/06/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Fri Oct 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains generally on track. The primary change made to this outlook was to expand the Elevated area farther northeast into eastern GA and northwestern SC. Here, the latest guidance consensus depicts up to 15 mph sustained northwesterly winds overlapping with 20-30 percent RH for at least a few hours tomorrow afternoon behind the surface cold front. Fuels are also at least modestly receptive to wildfire spread. There is some question regarding the robustness of wildfire-spread potential across portions of western into central LA, which has received 1-2 inches of rain within the past 48 hours. Still, the extent of the ongoing drought and rapid drying of finer grasses may still support appreciable fire spread. ..Squitieri.. 10/06/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri Oct 06 2023/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified large-scale trough will shift slowly eastward from the Ohio Valley toward the Northeast, while an expansive surface anticyclone moves southward across the central/southern Plains -- in the wake of a southeastward-moving cold front over the Gulf of Mexico. ...Central Gulf Coast and Southeast... Along the southeastern periphery of the surface anticyclone, an enhanced pressure gradient will favor 10-15 mph sustained northerly surface winds across the central Gulf Coast and Southeast. These breezy post-frontal winds, combined with 25 percent minimum RH, will support elevated fire-weather conditions. While rainfall is expected across parts of the area on Day 1/Friday, ongoing severe to exceptional drought and 80th-90th percentile ERCs suggest fuels will still be receptive to fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Hawaii Island ranged from being abnormally dry to a touch of extreme drought. The Hawaiʻi County Department of Water Supply warned that water customers will be asked to conserve water if pumping capabilities cannot keep up with demand. The Department of Water Supply will continue to monitor its 23 water systems. Big Island Video News (Hilo, Hawaii), Oct 5, 2023

The Mississippi River was 0.3 feet at Vicksburg River gauge, but ought to be at 20 feet. Barges can usually be loaded to a draft of 12 feet, but with the low water, drafts were being limited to 10 feet to avoid groundings. WLBT Online (Jackson, Miss.), Oct 5, 2023

Salt water advancing up the Mississippi River from the Gulf of Mexico toward New Orleans was moving more slowly than anticipated. The salt water may reach New Orleans and Jefferson Parish in late November rather than late October. Salinity is also expected to not exceed 250 parts per million, a level that prompts health warnings. Additional rains could ease the threat further. Of note in the latest projections, the underwater sill has been effective, and weather and river forecasts were more optimistic. The Associated Press (New Orleans, La.), Oct 5, 2023

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 052346
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Oct 5 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Lidia, located several hundred miles southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico.

South of Southern Mexico (EP99):
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated with a trough of low
pressure. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
gradual development during the next several days, and a tropical
depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week while
the disturbance moves slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Western East Pacific:
An elongated area of low pressure located about 1200 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce disorganized thunderstorms. Any development of this system
would be slow to occur while it moves little during the next couple
of days. By this weekend, environmental conditions are forecast to
become less conducive for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

No watches are valid as of Thu Oct 5 23:20:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Oct 5 23:20:02 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CDT Thu Oct 05 2023 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z Fire weather potential is expected to generally be low through the extended period with the exception of the Southeast region this weekend. Long-range guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the evolution of the synoptic regime over the weekend and into next week. The longwave trough currently over the central CONUS is forecast to shift east over the weekend and slowly deamplify over the Great Lakes through early next week. Upper ridging will remain in place across the western half of the country with a broad northwesterly flow regime across the Plains. This synoptic regime will favor cool, dry conditions east of the Rockies and warm conditions across the Southwest/West Coast. Fuels may undergo drying across the Southeast and Southwest where ensemble guidance shows low probability for substantial precipitation until the middle of next week. ...D3/Saturday - Southeast... Fire weather concerns may emerge across the Southeast states on D3/Saturday as a dry offshore flow regime becomes established behind a cold frontal passage on Friday. While some spread is noted in deterministic solutions, ensemble output hints at widespread gradient winds between 15-20 mph from southern MS to central GA. Additionally, a dry continental air mass advecting into the region should promote RH reductions into the 20s, resulting in areas of elevated (to perhaps locally critical) fire weather conditions. Confidence in such conditions is highest across southeast AL into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle, but may extend into much of AL, GA, and western MS based on a few drier/windier solutions. Recent fuel analyses place ERC values near the 80th to 90th percentile, suggesting fuels should support the fire weather concerns. ...D6/Tuesday and D7/Wednesday - Southwest and Southern High Plains... Most long-range solutions show a low-amplitude upper trough migrating into the Four Corners region by the middle of next week as the upper ridge breaks down. This will promote surface pressure falls across the Four Corners and central/southern High Plains D6/Tuesday into D7/Wednesday. Strengthening low-level flow coupled with antecedent dry conditions may support fire weather concerns on both of these days. However, considerable spread is noted in deterministic solutions regarding the placement and magnitude of the upper wave. Likewise, ensemble guidance shows only a modest signal for critical fire weather conditions despite the generally favorable synoptic regime. This uncertainty, coupled with recent rainfall over the southern High Plains and much of the Rockies, precludes introducing any risk areas. ..Moore.. 10/05/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 05 Oct 2023 20:37:46 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 05 Oct 2023 21:29:52 GMT