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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 AM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z An Elevated fire weather risk area is introduced for portions of the northern Sacramento Valley. Mid-morning surface observations show winds throughout the northern portion of the Valley already sustained at 10-15 mph with gusts into the high teens and low 20s amid falling RH into the 20-30% range. Recent hi-res guidance suggests winds will increase to 15-20 mph, gusting to 20-25 mph by the afternoon through much of the northern Valley. Highlights are introduced given this increased confidence in coverage of elevated (to locally critical) fire weather conditions. The forecast for Wyoming remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. Elevated wind/RH conditions will likely occur across parts of central UT, but fuels generally remain unreceptive at this time. ..Moore.. 08/27/2021 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will remain across the northern Rockies today. Strong mid-level winds will impact parts of southern Idaho into Wyoming. As the trough moves slowly eastward, surface high pressure will build into the Northwest. ...Wyoming... Strong mid-level winds will combine with deepening surface low pressure in the High Plains to bring 15-20 mph wind across southern and eastern Wyoming. Fuels are not overly dry in these areas, but the strength of the surface winds and 10-20% RH will elevate fire weather concerns during the afternoon. ...Northern California... The surface high pressure building in the Northwest will drive downslope winds into parts of the western Sacramento Valley. Mid-level winds will not be favorably aligned with the Valley. Locally elevated to near critical fire weather is still possible from late morning in potentially mid-afternoon. Elevated conditions are limited in space. No highlights will be added at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 271435 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Nora Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 1000 AM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 As was expected, vertical shear appears to be decreasing, with deep convection expanding over Nora's surface center just within the past few hours. Water vapor imagery also suggests an expansion of upper-level outflow to the north of the storm. Since Dvorak data-T numbers are 3.0/45 kt from TAFB and SAB, Nora's intensity is being held at that value for now. Nora has turned toward the northwest (310/10 kt) in response to a weakness in the subtropical ridge that has developed over the U.S. southern Rockies. Little change to this steering pattern is expected during the next several days, and Nora is forecast to move toward the northwest or north-northwest for the entire 5-day forecast period. Compared to the last few days, nearly all the track models now have Nora's center staying just offshore of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, in about 36 hours. The GFS and HMON model fields still show a landfall in that area, but their interpolated trackers--which have been shifted to begin at our estimated initial position--also stay just offshore. After 36 hours, the track guidance has shifted slightly eastward, and the new NHC track forecast now keeps Nora's center over water up into the Gulf of California from days 2 through 5. That will be a small needle to thread, however, and any future shifts in the models could increase the risk of impacts to either the Baja California peninsula or the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico through the middle of next week. SHIPS model diagnostics indicate that the northeasterly deep-layer shear over Nora has decreased to about 15 kt, and this shear is expected to decrease further to below 10 kt in about 12 hours. Along with warm waters of about 29 degrees Celsius and significant upper-level divergence (at least for the next 36 hours), these conditions should foster strengthening, and Nora is still forecast to become a hurricane on Saturday. The part of the forecast after 48 hours remains uncertain depending on how much Nora interacts with land, but based on the new forecast that keeps the cyclone over water in the Gulf of California (where SSTs are even warmer -- around 31 degrees Celsius), Nora could maintain hurricane intensity through at least day 4. The NHC intensity forecast continues to hedge on the side of the ECMWF-based SHIPS and LGEM models, since most of the other models show Nora's center interacting with land to at least some degree. The new forecast has necessitated an extension of the Tropical Storm Warning northward to San Blas, Mexico, and the issuance of a new Tropical Storm Watch north of there to Mazatlan. Key Messages: 1. Nora is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane on Saturday while passing nearby the coasts of the Mexican states of Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit, and hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are in effect for portions of that coastline. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of Nora and subsequent updates to the forecast. 2. Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco, as well as Baja California Sur. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. 3. Nora is forecast to move over the Gulf of California as a hurricane early next week, bringing a risk of wind and rain impacts to portions of the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora. Given the above-average uncertainty in the forecast, it is still too soon to determine the magnitude and location of these potential impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 15.4N 104.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 16.3N 105.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 17.9N 105.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 19.9N 106.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 21.7N 107.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 30/0000Z 23.1N 108.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 24.2N 109.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 31/1200Z 26.1N 110.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 01/1200Z 28.4N 111.7W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 271435 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 1500 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 36(49) 4(53) X(53) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 2(15) X(15) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 43(57) 3(60) X(60) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 3(21) X(21) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 12(35) 1(36) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) 4(23) LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 8(22) GUAYMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) 2(19) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 11(28) 2(30) LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) LOS MOCHIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 2(26) 1(27) CULIACAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 5( 5) 38(43) 37(80) 2(82) X(82) X(82) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 28(33) 3(36) X(36) X(36) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 30(38) 16(54) 1(55) X(55) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAN BLAS 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 14(30) 2(32) X(32) X(32) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X 4( 4) 40(44) 4(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 105W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 39(40) 17(57) X(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 10 38(48) 8(56) 1(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) MANZANILLO 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) L CARDENAS 34 8 4(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ZIHUATANEJO 34 4 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 8(14) 5(19) X(19) X(19) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 271434 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 1500 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED NORTH OF SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN MEXICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TECPAN DE GALEANA TO SAN BLAS MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 104.3W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......200NE 100SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 104.3W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 104.0W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 16.3N 105.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...180NE 110SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.9N 105.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.9N 106.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 130SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.7N 107.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 23.1N 108.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 24.2N 109.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 26.1N 110.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 28.4N 111.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 104.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 27/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

 The Rice Bay Fire is located west of Phantom Lake within the BWCAW. It is currently .5 acre in size. A fire crew is working on an access route to the fire today to begin suppression work. Helicopter bucket water drops will be used as needed to help cool the fire’s

 The Second Creek Fire is located northwest of Angleworm Lake within the BWCAW. It is currently one-half an acre in size. A fire crew is looking for an access route to this fire to begin suppression

 The Steep Fire was detected on August 20 and is located within the BWCAW approximately three miles south of the Canada border. It is estimated to be 2.5 acres in size. Water drops were made on Friday when the fire was first detected. A four-person fire crew is on site working to suppress the

The Fourtown Lake Fire was first detected on July 25 approximately 12 miles N of Ely. The fire is in containment lines at 265-acres and still showing some

On August 3, lightning passed through the Cle Elum Ranger District igniting a fire in the Lookout Mountain area.  As of 08/10/21, there is no active burning and minimal heat has been found in the burn area.Crews will scout for hot spots and mop up any spots that could present a threat to contingency lines. There is no anticipated change in the fire spread. While some resources remain on the ground, many have been released to other

MD 1608 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 463... FOR EXTREME EAST-CENTRAL SD INTO SOUTHWEST MN
Mesoscale Discussion 1608 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1043 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 Areas affected...Extreme east-central SD into southwest MN Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 463... Valid 261543Z - 261715Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 463 continues. SUMMARY...A swath of damaging winds is possible over the next 1-2 hours as an intense MCS moves eats-southeastward. DISCUSSION...A well-organized MCS has recently produced a 63 kt gust at Huron, SD and a 65 kt gust at Watertown, SD. While the convection remains somewhat elevated, a strong cold pool and pressure perturbation has been noted in surface observations, with 2-hr pressure rises in excess of 5 mb noted across northeast SD as the line passed through, and 2-hr pressure falls of 3-5 mb further west, where an apparent wake low has maintained strong surface winds at KABR well after the passage of the storms. While heating downstream of the MCS is being limited by cloudiness associated with a downstream thunderstorm cluster across Iowa, continued low-level moisture transport and MUCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg should maintain the system in the short term, with a substantial damaging wind threat spreading into portions of southwest MN over the next 1-2 hours. ..Dean.. 08/26/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR... LAT...LON 45049658 45059611 45019573 44789523 44459511 44159529 43989550 43849603 43889668 44009709 44159720 45049658 Read more

WW 0463 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 463 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW HON TO 25 E HON TO 10 WSW ATY TO 45 WNW VVV. ..DEAN..08/26/21 ATTN...WFO...ABR...MPX...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 463 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC011-023-067-073-081-083-101-117-121-127-129-149-151-155-173- 261640- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG STONE CHIPPEWA KANDIYOHI LAC QUI PARLE LINCOLN LYON MURRAY PIPESTONE POPE REDWOOD RENVILLE STEVENS SWIFT TRAVERSE YELLOW MEDICINE SDC011-029-039-051-057-077-079-097-101-109-111-261640- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROOKINGS CODINGTON DEUEL GRANT HAMLIN KINGSBURY LAKE MINER MOODY ROBERTS SANBORN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 463 SEVERE TSTM MN SD 261405Z - 262000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 463 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 905 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of southwest Minnesota eastern South Dakota * Effective this Thursday morning and afternoon from 905 AM until 300 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Line of storms may remain capable of producing damaging wind as it continues through eastern South Dakota and southwestern Minnesota this morning into the early afternoon. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 5 miles east northeast of Alexandria MN to 40 miles southwest of Brookings SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30035. ...Dial Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 26 Aug 2021 14:49:00 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 26 Aug 2021 15:28:59 GMT

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 373 WTPZ44 KNHC 261447 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Nora Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 1000 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 Satellite images show that deep convection embedded within the sprawling circulation of the depression is gradually becoming better organized, and 91-GHz SSMIS data from 1117 UTC showed improved curvature to the bands, especially within the western semicircle. Subjective Dvorak estimates are now a consensus T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and SAB, while objective numbers from UW-CIMSS are running a little higher. Therefore, the depression is being upgraded to Tropical Storm Nora with 35-kt winds. The microwave data, as well as first-light visible imagery, suggest that the center may be consolidating or re-forming a little farther east of where we had been tracking it. Nora is moving slowly toward the west-northwest (296/6 kt), steered by a strong mid-level ridge located over the southern United States. This ridge is expected to dissolve over the next 24 hours as a shortwave trough moves across the Rocky Mountains, allowing Nora to turn toward the northwest and north-northwest through the weekend. Most of the differences among the track models still appear to be related to the initial location of Nora's center. The GFS continues to show the system having multiple low-level vortices, with a dominant one forming well to the east and moving inland along the southwestern coast of Mexico as early as late Friday, and many more GEFS ensemble members show a similar scenario compared to yesterday. The HWRF and HMON are also in the camp of bringing Nora's center inland over Mexico. Other models, including the ECMWF (and most of its ensemble members), the UKMET, and the consensus aids, still show Nora's center staying just offshore. The new NHC track forecast has been shifted eastward, primarily due to the adjustment of the initial position, and shows Nora's center very close to the coast of southwestern Mexico over the weekend. If Nora's center re-forms, then additional shifts in the track forecast will be likely. By early next week, Nora is likely to head towards Baja California Sur, but here is still a lot of uncertainty on the exact track at that time. Moderate northeasterly vertical shear continues to affect Nora, but this shear is expected to decrease to 10 kt or less in 36-48 hours. In addition, the storm will be moving over warm waters of 28-29 degrees Celsius and through an environment of high mid-level moisture. These factors should allow for continued strengthening, although the system's large size could be one limiting factor in how fast that strengthening happens. Nora is expected to be near or at hurricane strength when it approaches the coast of southwestern Mexico in 2-3 days. However, the intensity forecast, especially on days 3-5, hinges on whether or not the center moves inland. If it does not, Nora will have greater opportunity to strengthen while it heads toward the Baja California Peninsula. Since several of the intensity models assume a scenario where Nora moves inland, the NHC intensity forecast more closely follows the no-land versions of the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS models through day 4 to be consistent with what is shown in the track forecast. Given the high uncertainty in Nora's future track, and its roughly shore-parallel path, a larger-than-normal hurricane watch area has been issued for the southwestern coast of Mexico by the Mexican government. Key Messages: 1. Nora is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane by late Saturday while it approaches the coast of southwestern Mexico, and hurricane and tropical storm watches are now in effect for portions of that area. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should closely monitor the progress of this system and updates to the forecast. 2. Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides could occur. 3. Nora is forecast to be near the southern portion of Baja California Sur as a hurricane early next week, bringing a risk of wind and rain impacts to that area. Given the above average uncertainty in the forecast, it is too soon to determine the magnitude and location of these potential impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 12.5N 100.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 13.2N 101.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 14.3N 103.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 15.7N 103.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 17.4N 104.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 29/0000Z 19.0N 105.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 20.2N 106.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 22.3N 108.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 31/1200Z 24.0N 110.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 26 2021 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 261446 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 1500 UTC THU AUG 26 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 20(47) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) 22(50) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 16(22) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 22(53) 2(55) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 12(20) 1(21) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 15(23) 4(27) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) 1(17) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 5(27) X(27) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 105W 34 X 7( 7) 22(29) 3(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 31(36) 2(38) X(38) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 28(51) 1(52) X(52) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) X(15) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) L CARDENAS 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 8(15) 4(19) X(19) X(19) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) 15N 100W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ACAPULCO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) 5(26) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 26 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 261446 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 1500 UTC THU AUG 26 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED EAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS TO TECPAN DE GALEANA MEXICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS TO TECPAN DE GALEANA MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORA. WARNINGS OR ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 100.8W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 100.8W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 100.4W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 13.2N 101.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 14.3N 103.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 15.7N 103.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.4N 104.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.0N 105.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.2N 106.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 22.3N 108.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 24.0N 110.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 100.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 26/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 261446 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nora Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 1000 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 ...TROPICAL STORM NORA FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.5N 100.8W ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch from Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued east of Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan de Galeana, Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan de Galeana Mexico A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the west-central coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Nora. Warnings or additional watches will likely be required later today and tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 100.8 West. Nora is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through this evening. A motion toward the northwest and north-northwest is forecast to begin overnight and continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Nora will approach the southwestern coast of Mexico on Friday and be very near the coast on Saturday and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Nora is expected to become a hurricane by late Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area Saturday and Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area beginning Friday or Friday night. RAINFALL: Nora is expected to produce heavy rains over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches are forecast through this weekend with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. SURF: Swells generated by Nora are expected to begin affecting the southern coast of Mexico today and will spread northward to the southwestern coast of Mexico through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

...TROPICAL STORM NORA FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 10:00 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 the center of Nora was located near 12.5, -100.8 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR NORTHERN IA AND SOUTHERN MN... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO MT... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are likely across parts of southern Minnesota into Iowa. Severe thunderstorms will also be possible during the late afternoon and evening across parts of the northern High Plains. ...Southern MN/northern IA and vicinity through tonight... Weak lee cyclogenesis is expected today across the central High Plains, along the southeast periphery of a midlevel trough over the northern Rockies. East of the lee cyclone and later today, a surface front will move slowly northward across NE/IA. However, uncertainty in the forecast stems from the influence of the morning western IA storms on the location of the front by early afternoon, and whether or not destabilization will occur quickly enough from south to north to allow the ongoing storm cluster in northern SD to intensify by early-mid afternoon. To the south of the ongoing convection and the front, a reservoir of low-mid 70s boundary-layer dewpoints beneath the eastern extent of a steep midlevel lapse rate plume, will combine with daytime heating and result in MLCAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg. The warm front will also lie along the southern fringe of the 30+ kt midlevel flow, where vertical shear will be favorable for both supercells and organized storm clusters. Assuming sufficient recovery occurs by this afternoon, intensification of the SD storms is expected in the vicinity of southern MN, or possibly new storm clusters may form along the outflow-reinforced front. In either case, the threat for damaging winds will increase across southern MN and northern IA through the afternoon/evening, and the stronger embedded supercells may also produce isolated large hail and a tornado or two. Farther west, a few additional storm clusters will be possible along the front this evening into tonight from northern NE into southern SD, where occasional damaging gusts and/or large hail will be possible. ...Central MT this afternoon/evening... There will be a window of opportunity for a few severe storms with damaging winds and large hail in association with surface heating and residual boundary-layer dewpoints in the 50s along a stalled front across central MT. The phasing of the diurnal heating cycle and the approach of a midlevel trough from ID should support scattered thunderstorms, some of which could be supercells given moderate buoyancy and sufficiently long hodographs with effective bulk shear of 30-40 kt. ...Northern ME this afternoon/evening... In association with a shortwave trough moving eastward from James Bay, a surface cold front will approach northern ME this evening from QC. Buoyancy and deep-layer vertical shear will be sufficient for organized/supercell storms ahead of the front across northern ME, but the stronger forcing for ascent will pass to the north, leaving storm coverage in question. Any storms that do form this afternoon/evening will be capable of producing damaging winds and/or large hail. ..Thompson/Gleason.. 08/26/2021 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261114
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Aug 26 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Fourteen-E, located a few hundred miles south of
Acapulco, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Fourteen-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Fourteen-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Berg