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Livestock producers should assess pasture for weeds as drought might make toxic plants more abundant. Pastures, hay fields in drought-stressed areas will likely be weedier. Those weeds may be poisonous or higher in nitrates than is okay for livestock to eat. Fertilized fields may also be high in nitrates. Beef Magazine (St. Charles, Ill.),Aug 16, 2021

Dry conditions in Goshen County delayed dryland winter wheat planting. Kiowa County Press (Eads, Colo.), Aug 18, 2021

Platte County producers were haying areas not normally hayed in an effort to get feed for livestock. Kiowa County Press (Eads, Colo.), Aug 18, 2021

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Aug. 12 Crop Production Report indicates significant reductions in corn and soybean yields for the Dakotas and Minnesota. Comparing 2020 yields with expected 2021 yields, North Dakota expects a decrease of 24% in corn yield, South Dakota anticipates an 18% decrease, while Minnesota expects 14% decrease. Yield reductions for soybeans are 28% for North Dakota, 14% for South Dakota, and 12% for Minnesota. The Fence Post (Greeley, Colo.), Aug 20, 2021

Almost two-thirds of North Dakota’s spring wheat crop was rated poor or very poor, while about half of the durum wheat, soybean and corn crops were rated as such. The amount of pasture and range rated poor or very poor increased from 79% last week to 87% this week. The lack of forage continued to lead ranchers to cull cattle and cut drought-damaged crops like corn for hay across the state. In an indication of how desperate ranchers are, there were two reports of stolen hay southwest of Manning in Dunn County. Hay thefts did not appear to be widespread at this point, according to the North Dakota Stockmen's Association executive vice president. The Bismarck Tribune (N.D.), Aug 19, 2021

Fire activity continued to be high in the state with 2,186 wildfires burning 122,724 acres, according to the acting outreach and education manager for the North Dakota Forest Service. The number of fires is more than twice the 2020 total, while the area burned was already more than 10 times the area burned in 2020. The Bismarck Tribune (N.D.), Aug 19, 2021 Statewide, 2,009 wildfires burned 118,831 acres, according to the acting outreach and education manager for the North Dakota Forest Service. The number of fires was more than twice last year's total, and the charred acres were about 10 times what burned in all of 2020. The Bismarck Tribune (N.D.), Aug 12, 2021 The North Dakota Forest Service reported 69 fires statewide in the past week burning more than 3,200 acres. KX News (Bismarck, N.D.), July 8, 2021 Dry conditions in North Dakota have driven up fire activity, with nearly 1,400 fires blackening about 156 square miles since the start of 2021, according to North Dakota Forest Service and the state Department of Emergency Services. In 2020, about 921 blazes charred roughly 18 square miles. The Associated Press (N.Y.), June 16, 2021 North Dakota has had more than 1,370 wildfires since the start of 2021. The Bismarck Tribune (N.D.), June 14, 2021 Fire activity continued in North Dakota, although rain slowed things a bit. Since the start of the year, 1,189 fires burned 92,963 acres in the state, according to the North Dakota Fire Service. The area burned in 2021 was already eight times the acreage burned in all of 2020. The Bismarck Tribune (N.D.), May 27, 2021 North Dakota continued to experience high fire activity with 1,103 wildfires burning 91,611 acres, which is more than seven times the amount of land that burned in all of 2020. The Bismarck Tribune (N.D.), May 21, 2021 More than 800 wildfires in North Dakota blackened nearly 80,000 acres, or 8 1/2 times the number of acres that burned in all of 2020, according to the acting outreach and education manager for the North Dakota Forest Service. Rapid City Journal (S.D.), May 9, 2021 North Dakota began seeing wildfires in January with no let up since then as drought intensified. Through May 3, at least 797 known fires consumed 76,474 acres since the start of the year. The area burned so far is nearly six times the roughly 13,000 acres that typically burn annually. The Dickinson Press (N.D.), May 3, 2021 Since the start of the year, 243 fires charred more than 43,000 acres in North Dakota, according to the acting outreach and education manager for the North Dakota Fire Service. The area already burned in 2021 is more than thrice the amount burned in all of 2020. The Bismarck Tribune (N.D.), April 17, 2021 Fire activity remained high with 194 fires consuming nearly 34,000 acres, per the North Dakota Forest Service, which is triple the acreage burned in 2020. The Bismarck Tribune (N.D.), April 8, 2021 More than 140 wildfires in North Dakota have burned over 46 square miles, according to the North Dakota Forest Service. A statewide fire emergency was declared on April 1. The Bismarck Tribune (N.D.), April 2, 2021 Eighty wildfires have already burned more than 24,000 acres, according to the North Dakota Forest Service. The fire activity in the first part of 2021 already exceeds the roughly 11,500 acres burned in all of 2020. The Bismarck Tribune (N.D.), March 25, 2021

Superior NF Facebook  |  Superior NF WebpageThe Gabi Fire was detected on August 23 and is located west of Gabimichigami Lake within the BWCAW.  The fire is .5 acre in size. Because of the remote location and poor access, it has been unstaffed. If the weather allows, a fire crew will be flown to the fire area today.For Superior National Forest Closures visit:  https://www.fs.usda.gov/alerts/superior/alerts-notices For Superior National Forest Fire Restrictions visit:  https://www.fs.usda.gov/alerts/superior/alerts-notices/?aid=67256For MN DNR Fire Restrictions visit: 

The Petit Fire was detected on August 23 and is located 1 mile north of Crescent Lake within the BWCAW. The fire is .5 acre in size and was contained on August 24. It is now in monitor

 All road closures in and around the Cougar Rock Complex have been lifted. There is still active fire burning within the interior of all incidents, but crews are making progress. Current tactics include direct hand line construction followed by hose lay and mop up. Diligent gridding of the green areas is necessary to identify and suppress spot fire that arise. 

No watches are valid as of Fri Aug 27 17:46:02 UTC 2021.

MD 1616 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
Mesoscale Discussion 1616 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 Areas affected...Parts of the Mid Atlantic Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 271741Z - 272015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Storm coverage is expected to increase this afternoon, with isolated-to-scattered damaging wind gusts possible. DISCUSSION...Early this afternoon, a weak midlevel shortwave trough is moving slowly eastward toward the Mid Atlantic, with convection beginning to develop across the higher terrain. Downstream, strong heating of a very moist boundary layer is resulting in MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg as of 17Z, with some further increase in buoyancy expected through the afternoon. Storm coverage is expected to gradually increase this afternoon in advance of the shortwave trough. Deep-layer shear is generally weak across the region and storms may tend to remain disorganized, with a primary risk of isolated downburst wind gusts within the high PW environment. However, slightly stronger westerly midlevel flow along the southern flank of the shortwave trough may promote some loosely organized clusters across MD/DC/northern VA, which could pose a slightly more organized damaging wind risk. Given the weak deep-layer shear across the region, watch issuance is currently considered unlikely, but this will be reevaluated if more organized outflow-driven clusters develop or appear imminent. ..Dean/Dial.. 08/27/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 38837830 40037771 40287700 40327665 40127586 39927571 39657562 39107589 38797625 38447659 38147707 37957738 37897802 38367851 38837830 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 27 Aug 2021 17:35:02 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 27 Aug 2021 15:28:47 GMT

Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 271734 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nora Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 100 PM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 ...RAINBANDS FROM NORA CONTINUE TO SPREAD ONSHORE THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE THOUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 104.6W ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan de Galeana to San Blas Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of San Blas to Mazatlan Mexico A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico and southern portions of Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas later today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 104.6 West. Nora is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A motion toward the northwest or north-northwest is expected through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Nora will approach the southwestern coast of Mexico today and tonight and pass very near the coasts of the states of Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit Saturday and Saturday night. Nora will then approach and move into the Gulf of California on Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Nora is expected to become a hurricane on Saturday. Nora is a large tropical storm, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. A ship near the coast of Mexico about 200 miles northeast of Nora's center recently reported winds of 48 mph (78 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring over southern portions of the tropical storm warning area and will spread to northern portions of the warning area through Saturday evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area Saturday night and Sunday. RAINFALL: Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches are forecast through this weekend with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible. As Nora continues northwest, heavy rainfall will move into Baja California Sur late Sunday into Monday. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are forecast, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California over the weekend into early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

...RAINBANDS FROM NORA CONTINUE TO SPREAD ONSHORE THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE THOUGH THE WEEKEND... As of 1:00 PM CDT Fri Aug 27 the center of Nora was located near 15.7, -104.6 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271724
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Aug 27 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Nora, located a couple hundred miles south of Manzanillo,
Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ACROSS MINNESOTA AND INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to isolated severe storms will be possible Saturday from the western Upper Great Lakes/Upper Mississippi Valley region, southwestward to the central High Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move eastward across the northern Plains on Saturday, reaching the upper MS Valley early Sunday. This wave will have a positive tilt, with midlevel southwesterlies of 50-60 kt. Ahead of this trough, an upper ridge will shift into the Northeast, with an upper high over the Carolinas. A surface trough will deepen during the day, roughly from southwest MN into eastern CO ahead of a cold front. Southerly winds ahead of this trough will maintain a moist and unstable air mass, which when combined with the strong flow aloft will result in severe storm potential from Nebraska into Upper Michigan. Elsewhere, Ida is forecast to become a hurricane over the central Gulf of Mexico, with the stronger shear and instability expected to remain offshore. ...Northern Plains into the Great Lakes... Southwest flow aloft will gradually increase as the upper trough shifts east, with deep-layer shear of 40-50 kt common by late afternoon, with vectors oriented nearly parallel to the surface front. The exception will be near the warm front from central MN into northern WI which may prove most favorable for supercells or rotation embedded within a line. Here, effective SRH is expected to average 200-300 m2/s2. Scattered showers or storms may occur early in the day from eastern SD into MN where low-level theta-e advection will be maximized. Marginal hail cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, increasing convergence along the front and an uncapped air mass by 21Z should result in rapid storm formation across eastern SD, northeast NE and western MN. A linear storm mode appears likely, with damaging wind potential spreading east. The very strong instability may support significant wind gusts. Aforementioned favorable SRH downstream of these storms may support supercell structures within the line as well. ..Jewell.. 08/27/2021 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS WELL AS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms are expected today from eastern Montana into the upper Mississippi Valley. Hail and damaging winds will be the main threats, though a few tornadoes will be possible from northern Iowa and southeastern Minnesota into southwestern and central Wisconsin. Isolated downburst winds will be possible from northern Virginia into southern Pennsylvania. ...Upper Mississippi Valley region through tonight... A convectively reinforced front extends from southern WI through central IA to a weak surface low in eastern NE. This boundary is expected to move north into southern MN and central WI as a shortwave trough approaches from the west. Modification of the surface layer is already occurring near the boundary across northern IA where winds are veering to southeasterly along with dewpoints rising into the upper 60s F. However, widespread clouds and ongoing areas of precipitation will slow boundary layer recovery farther north. By late afternoon or early evening, sufficient boundary layer recovery might exist to support surface-based storms developing in vicinity of the warm front as a corridor of deeper ascent accompanying the shortwave trough moves over the region. Up to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE and 45 kt effective bulk shear will support supercells with initial discrete modes. Low-level hodograph size will also be sufficient for a few tornadoes, especially in vicinity of the warm front assuming enough boundary layer recovery occurs across southern MN into WI. Eventually storms should evolve into lines/clusters with an increasing damaging wind threat into the evening before activity weakens later tonight. ...Southeast Montana and western Dakotas this afternoon/evening... In the wake of an ejecting shortwave trough near the MT/ND border, an upstream trough over northern ID will progress eastward today, along with an associated cold front. This front will focus ascent, and thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across southeast MT. Though low-level moisture will be rather modest (boundary-layer dewpoints in the 50s) and MLCAPE will likely remain at or below 1000 J/kg, strong deep-layer shear will favor organized storms/clusters capable of producing occasional severe outflow gusts and isolated large hail through late evening. ...Southern PA through northern Virginia this afternoon/evening... A well defined MCV is evident on satellite imagery along the southwest PA / western MD border moving slowly east. Downstream from this feature, strong heating of the moist boundary layer will result in moderate instability this afternoon with 2000-2500 j/kg MLCAPE likely. Forcing for ascent over the higher terrain as well as within the convergence bands associated with the MCV will contribute to numerous thunderstorms developing today. A belt of slightly stronger winds aloft with up to 20 kt westerly winds in the 700-500 mb layer is evident in point forecast soundings, especially along the southern periphery of the MCV. Some of the storms might eventually evolve into line segments and clusters as they spread east with a threat for isolated strong to damaging wind gusts through early evening. ..Dial/Karstens.. 08/27/2021 Read more