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Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Oct 05 2023 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 052035 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lidia Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023 300 PM MDT Thu Oct 05 2023 ...LIDIA LEISURELY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 109.9W ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 109.9 West. Lidia is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h) and a general northwest to west-northwest motion is expected through tonight. A turn toward the west is expected by Friday, followed by a turn back toward the west-northwest and then northwest later this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Lidia could become a hurricane this weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Kelly

...LIDIA LEISURELY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... As of 3:00 PM MDT Thu Oct 5 the center of Lidia was located near 16.0, -109.9 with movement NW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Oct 05 2023 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms appear unlikely through the remainder of the Day 1 period. An outflow-reinforced boundary continues to push rapidly southward across Deep South TX, near the US/MX border at 20Z. Given the very moist air mass across the region, elevated instability will continue to support scattered storms, but strong to severe gust potential will be reduced as the outflow undercuts the remaining areas of warmer surface air. As such, wind probabilities have been removed for the remainder of the period. Elsewhere, weak/shallow convection over the Upper Great Lakes region in association with cold air beneath the upper trough is forecast to dwindle with the loss of heating later this afternoon, and as cooler/drier air pushes in from the west. ..Jewell.. 10/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Thu Oct 05 2023/ ...Deep South TX... Convection has largely moved offshore this morning, but a slow-moving, small cluster persists over a portion of the Brush Country along a composite outflow-enhanced cold front moving south. Very rich western Gulf moisture characterized by 75-80 F surface dew points remains prevalent ahead of the front with ample insolation. This may support an uptick in thunderstorm intensity and coverage for a few hours centered on mid to late afternoon. While the combination of deep-layer shear and mid-level lapse rates will remain modest, there will be potential for 45-60 mph gusts in a couple multicell clusters approaching the Lower Rio Grande Valley. Read more

South Carolina officials say that the state is in a drought advisory, due to the lack of rain and intense heat. The situation is being monitored. People should consider how much water they use. WSPA Online (Spartanburg, S.C.), Oct 3, 2023

Drought was causing the limestone county roads in Ellis County to break down. The surface had degraded into little pebbles that make it difficult for a vehicle to keep traction. County crews were working on the roads, trying to improve them by spraying water on them. KWCH 12 (Wichita, Kan.), Oct 3, 2023

Extension agents from Madison, Greene, Orange and Rappahannock counties also intend to seek disaster declarations for their counties as Culpeper County has done. Culpeper Star-Exponent (Va.), Oct 5, 2023

The Board of Supervisors approved a resolution requesting the Commonwealth of Virginia declare Culpeper County an agricultural disaster area due to ongoing drought. Drought from July 15 through Sept. 15 affected 682 farms in Culpeper, causing losses estimated at more than $7 million. Fifty percent of pastureland was affected by the drought, causing a loss of $3.9 million. A 30% shortage of hay during the summer harvest has resulted in an additional loss of $3.2 million. Wells were also at historic lows. There were 20% losses for corn and soybean, 50% loss for corn silage and 25% loss in wine grape tonnage, but grape quality was better than usual. Creeks and streams were dry, leaving one woman to water her 100 cows from a house well. Culpeper Star-Exponent (Va.), Oct 5, 2023

Louisiana’s sugarcane began to die during the summer, but rain revived it. The can was still stunted by the drought, which may result in a loss of 20% to 30% of the sugarcane being not usable. KATC (Lafayette, La.), Oct 5, 2023 The hot, dry summer was hard on Louisiana’s sugar cane and caused some of it to die. The crop is expected to be below average this year. While farmers often get 35 to 40 tons per acre, this year it may be closer to 28 to 30 tons per acre. KLFY News 10 (Lafayette, La.), Sept 22, 2023

MD 2234 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TX
Mesoscale Discussion 2234 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0702 PM CDT Wed Oct 04 2023 Areas affected...portions of central TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 050002Z - 050130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Several cluster of storms including a few supercells should continue east/southeast with a risk for damaging winds and hail. A new WW or local extensions of existing watches are being considered. DISCUSSION...Across portions of north-central TX, ongoing convection has slowly grown upscale into a few, more defined clusters over the last couple of hours. Previous storms over OK and north TX have pushed an effective outflow boundary south of the Red River to just north of I-20. Along and south of the boundary, the air mass remains quite unstable (1500-2000 J/kg) of MLCAPE owing to the upper 60s to low 70s F surface dewpoints. Area VADs also show the air mass remains moderately sheared, sufficient for organized severe storms. Given the recent upscale growth trends, further growth of the clusters is expected with time. Damaging winds appear to be the most likely severe threat given the potential for strong updrafts and the more linear structures. However, with some potential for supercells and the moderate buoyancy, isolated hail will also remain possible. The greatest severe risk appears to be focused along the I-20 corridor through the next several hours, though storms may eventually take on a more southeastward motion as outflow consolidates. Given the relatively pristine air mass ahead of the ongoing storms, severe potential should increase this evening. A new WW and/or extensions of the existing watches are being considered. ..Lyons/Guyer.. 10/05/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...SJT... LAT...LON 32269983 32869876 33169793 33289654 33229577 32989546 32679529 32029536 31789652 31379960 31609986 31869994 32259990 32269983 Read more

WW 0703 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 703 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E HOB TO 20 NW LBB TO 5 SE SPS TO 40 SE FSI. ..THORNTON..10/04/23 ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 703 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC009-023-077-107-125-169-263-269-275-303-305-433-050040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY CROSBY DICKENS GARZA KENT KING KNOX LUBBOCK LYNN STONEWALL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 703 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 041820Z - 050200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 703 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 120 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of West-central and southwest Oklahoma Northwest Texas * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 120 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible SUMMARY...Several supercells will develop with a primary initial threat of very large hail. These cells should consolidate into an eastward-moving cluster towards early evening with an increasing threat for severe wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west northwest of Lubbock TX to 15 miles north of Fort Sill OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Grams Read more

WW 0704 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 704 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..10/04/23 ATTN...WFO...MAF...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 704 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC033-043-059-081-103-105-115-135-151-173-207-227-235-253-317- 329-335-353-371-383-413-415-417-431-435-441-443-447-451-461- 050040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BORDEN BREWSTER CALLAHAN COKE CRANE CROCKETT DAWSON ECTOR FISHER GLASSCOCK HASKELL HOWARD IRION JONES MARTIN MIDLAND MITCHELL NOLAN PECOS REAGAN SCHLEICHER SCURRY SHACKELFORD STERLING SUTTON TAYLOR TERRELL THROCKMORTON TOM GREEN UPTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 704 SEVERE TSTM TX 041920Z - 050200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 704 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 220 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest to west-central Texas * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 220 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Initial supercell near Fort Stockton may persist for several hours while additional supercells form farther north-northeast across the Permian Basin. Very large hail will be the main threat initially, with severe wind gusts more likely as storms consolidate into eastward-moving clusters. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles west of Dryden TX to 100 miles northeast of Big Spring TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 703... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Grams Read more

WW 0705 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 705 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW SPS TO 20 SW ADM TO 30 NNE ADM TO 10 SSE CQB. ..THORNTON..10/04/23 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 705 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-013-023-061-069-077-085-091-095-101-107-111-121-127- 050040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CHOCTAW HASKELL JOHNSTON LATIMER LOVE MCINTOSH MARSHALL MUSKOGEE OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE PITTSBURG PUSHMATAHA TXC085-097-119-121-147-181-223-231-237-277-337-497-503-050040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLLIN COOKE DELTA DENTON FANNIN GRAYSON HOPKINS HUNT JACK LAMAR MONTAGUE WISE YOUNG Read more

MD 2233 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 703...704... FOR NORTHWEST/SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL TX
Mesoscale Discussion 2233 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0606 PM CDT Wed Oct 04 2023 Areas affected...Northwest/Southwest/West-Central TX Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 703...704... Valid 042306Z - 050100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 703, 704 continues. SUMMARY...Threat for large to very large hail and damaging gusts will continue for at least the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Outflow-augmented cold front extending from far northwest TX into the Permian Basin continues to progress gradually southward/southeastward. Thunderstorms persist along this boundary, supported by ample buoyancy and low-level convergence. Given the abundance of storms and close storm proximity, a supercell-in-cluster storm mode currently prevails, with the strongest updrafts north of the composite outflow/cold front. Even with most storms north of the boundary, there does appear to be a more outflow-dominant structure to the pair of updrafts over Baylor and King Counties in northwest TX. Warm, moist, and buoyant conditions exists downstream of these updrafts, with steep low-level lapse rates in place as well. Development into an organized convective line appears probable, and the overall expectations is that some severe potential will persist for at least the next few hours into western portions of north TX. Further south and west into the Permian Basin and southwest TX, a more cellular storm mode dominants. Long hodographs have supported splitting supercells capable of large hail thus far, which should remain the primary risk for at least the next few hours. Strong gusts will also remain possible, particularly with the supercell currently in Scurry County. ..Mosier.. 10/04/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 30710294 31450255 32120218 32790225 33610239 33940206 33850058 34109902 34029846 33779814 33269826 32739886 31810005 30610058 29860184 29850254 30120305 30710294 Read more

WW 705 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 041945Z - 050300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 705 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 245 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of South-central and southeast Oklahoma North Texas * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 245 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A few supercells should consolidate into an east-southeast moving MCS that spreads across parts of south Oklahoma and north Texas into this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles north of Wichita Falls TX to 40 miles south southeast of Mcalester OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 703...WW 704... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29030. ...Grams Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 042346
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Oct 4 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Lidia, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico.

South of Central America:
A large, elongated area of showers and thunderstorms located well
south of the coast of Guatemala is associated with a trough of low
pressure. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
gradual development during the next several days, and a tropical
depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week while
the disturbance moves slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Western East Pacific:
An area of low pressure located about 1200 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development of this system,
if any, should be slow to occur while it moves little during the
next couple of days. By this weekend, environmental conditions are
forecast to become less conducive for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 04 Oct 2023 20:40:19 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 04 Oct 2023 21:29:19 GMT