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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Oct 02 2023 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest potential for scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing a couple tornadoes, significant large hail, and severe wind gusts remains across parts of eastern New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the Slight Risk across the southern High Plains. A few supercells posing a threat for large to perhaps very large hail have developed over parts of central/eastern NM. This convection is expected to spread east-northeastward across the southern High Plains through this evening, while posing a continued threat for isolated large hail, severe wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two given a favorable kinematic environment. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 696 for more details. Isolated thunderstorms should also pose some threat for severe hail/wind gusts across southeastern CO and vicinity. Confidence in greater coverage of potentially severe convection was not high enough to expand the Slight Risk across NM into southeastern CO. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 2210 for more information on the severe risk for this area. Low-level moisture remains fairly limited across the western NE and northeastern CO vicinity this afternoon, although some locations are reporting surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s along/south of a front draped across SD. Thunderstorms should eventually move northeastward off the higher terrain of the central Rockies and into the adjacent High Plains, with other convection possibly developing over northeastern CO. Given the well mixed boundary layer, severe downdraft winds still appear to be the primary severe hazard. But, isolated hail may occur with any supercell that can be sustained. See recently issued Mesoscale Discussion 2209 for more details on the near-term severe threat across this area. ..Gleason.. 10/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Oct 02 2023/ ...Southern High Plains... Low to mid 60s surface dew points are pervasive across eastern NM and west TX. This will support a broader plume of moderate buoyancy this afternoon relative to the past couple days with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg becoming common. Scattered to eventually widespread thunderstorms will develop off the higher terrain of central to eastern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos, initiating in the early afternoon. Several discrete supercells should evolve across east-central/southeast NM and the Permian Basin. Modest low-level curvature beneath a moderately elongated and straight mid to upper hodograph should favor large hail production, some of which should reach golf ball size with potential for a few 2-2.5 inch sizes as well. A couple tornadoes will also be possible, most probable in the east-central NM vicinity where low-level hodographs should be slightly more enlarged with lower LCL heights. Storms should consolidate into east-northeast moving clusters by late afternoon to early evening with a strong to isolated severe wind threat spreading across parts of west TX before weakening after sunset. ...Central High Plains to the Dakotas... A lee cyclone becoming established over northeast CO will track north-northeast into southwest SD this evening as mid-level height falls increase downstream of a vigorous shortwave trough moving from UT into WY. A strengthening baroclinic zone, aided by ongoing differential boundary-layer heating within the nearly cloud-free warm sector and stratus lingering behind the front, will support intensifying thunderstorms that develop northeast off the Front Range. Consensus of 12Z HREF guidance supports a scenario of an organized cluster peaking across the western NE Panhandle vicinity in the late afternoon to early evening with a severe wind and isolated hail threat along the baroclinic zone. The severe wind/hail potential should decrease after sunset, but may continue tonight on an isolated basis across parts of the Dakotas. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Mon Oct 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 10/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0220 AM CDT Mon Oct 02 2023/ ...Synopsis... The upper low over parts of the Southwest is forecast to weaken further D2/Tuesday as it begins to shift eastward over the Southern Rockies/Plains. Flow aloft along the eastern periphery of the low will also weaken, though a belt of somewhat enhanced flow should remain over parts of far southern NM. At the surface, a cooler air mass is expected in the wake of a weak cold front as cloud cover and precipitation chances increase. A few pockets of lower humidity are still possible, but RH recoveries will generally improve overnight. Daytime RH values should also remain higher, at roughly 20-30%. While a few hours of gusty winds may occasionally overlap with areas of lower RH through the day, moderating temperatures, the chance for precipitation, and limited overlap with dry fuels suggest the potential for sustained elevated or critical fire-weather conditions is low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Drought and the high cost of raising cattle were leading ranchers in North Texas and across the U.S. to keep smaller herds. Beef production is expected to decline by 24.7 billion pounds, a historic low, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Consumers can anticipate beef prices to rise to new highs at the grocery store. KERA Public Media (Dallas, Texas), Oct 2, 2023

Cattle sales were higher, according to the co-owner of the auction in Decatur, north of Fort Worth. Weekly sales moved up to 2,200 head, compared to a normal sale of about 1,200 cattle as grass and water were in short supply. Ranchers parted with older cows first, but were down to selling young calves at present. KERA Public Media (Dallas, Texas), Oct 2, 2023

Sunflowers at a Sound Bend farm bloomed later than usual, due to the dry weather, and were also shorter than usual, reaching about 4 feet in height. ABC 57 WBND-TV South Bend News (South Bend, Ind.), Oct 2, 2023

A Stage 1 Water Shortage Advisory was declared for Hendersonville beginning Sept. 29 at midnight, due to continued dry conditions within the water supply and lower-than-normal flow measurements on the Mills River. The city manager made the declaration to ensure an adequate water supply is available for essential use and public safety. A Stage 1 Water Shortage Advisory was last issued on Aug. 24 and rescinded on Aug. 29 as conditions improved. BlueRidgeNow.com (Hendersonville, N.C.), Sept 28, 2023

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 012327
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Oct 1 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP98):
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico continues to produce a large area
of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for development of this system during the
next several days, and a tropical depression is expected to form by
the middle part of this week while it moves west-northwestward to
northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Central America:
A broad area of low pressure could form a few hundred miles south of
the coast of Central America toward the end of this week.
Thereafter, some gradual development of this system is possible
while it moves slowly westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

No watches are valid as of Sun Oct 1 22:33:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Oct 1 22:33:02 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0441 PM CDT Sun Oct 01 2023 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A large upper-trough currently over the Great Basin will continue eastward into the Plains early this coming week. The trough will generally lose amplitude with time and upper-level wind fields will weaken as well. By late next week, ridging will build into the West with the upper trough strengthening over the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will move through the Plains and eventually the Southeast and East. Surface high pressure will fill in behind the front. Cooler temperatures and precipitation will occur across a broad area as the front and upper trough progress east. This should greatly limit fire weather concerns within the Plains. High pressure filling into the Great Basin will promote some potential for offshore flow in southern California, but fuel receptiveness will mitigate fire weather risk. Overall, potential for critical fire weather during the period is expected to remain low. ..Wendt.. 10/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Oct 01 2023 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and locally strong to severe wind gusts will be possible until around 10 PM MDT in eastern New Mexico to far west Texas. ...20Z Update... The Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly northeastward across the TX/OK Panhandles into extreme southwest KS, downstream of developing storms north/west of Amarillo. Otherwise, no changes have been made to the severe probabilities. One strong storm has recently developed across Lincoln County, NM, with isolated supercell development still possible later this afternoon into this evening from eastern NM into far west TX. See the previous discussion below for more information, and MCD 2207 regarding the short-term severe threat in eastern NM. ..Dean.. 10/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Sun Oct 01 2023/ ...Eastern NM and far west TX... A plume of boundary-layer dewpoints in the 50s to low 60s has enveloped much of eastern NM into west TX and will support a more buoyant air mass later this afternoon relative to yesterday. But the presence of low-level stratus this morning has slowed boundary-layer heating and will temper MLCAPE values to an extent. Still, a confined corridor of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE should develop where cloud breaks are evident across southeast NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are most probable over the higher terrain in this region and should regenerate from mid-afternoon through at least early evening. While deep-layer vertical shear should be modest across much of the area, a narrow zone of effective bulk shear approaching 30 kts should develop in a portion of east-central/southeast NM where low-level south-southeasterlies persist beneath moderate mid-level southwesterlies. This should yield potential for a few slow-moving supercells, although there is uncertainty in just how warm the boundary layer will actually get where the better shear environment exists. Even so, isolated large hail and locally strong gusts should be the main threats, with localized severe gusts tending to focus farther south into the Trans-Pecos where surface heating is greater. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Sun Oct 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 10/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sun Oct 01 2023/ ...Synopsis... The upper low centered over the Great Basin and Southwest is forecast to slowly weaken through the remainder of the weekend into the early work week. As the upper low slowly breaks down, flow aloft will also become increasingly meridional and weaken with time. As the air mass slowly cools from the advancing cold core and increasing precipitation/cloud cover, the overlap of strong winds and low RH will constrict. Isolated pockets of dry and breezy conditions may persist over more sheltered areas of the Southwest across western NM and far eastern AZ. However, the coverage and the temporal continuity of sustained elevated fire-weather conditions is unlikely to reach elevated criteria D2/Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 302331
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Sep 30 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a
tropical wave is located several hundred miles south of the coast of
southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the middle to latter part of next week while
it moves generally northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Pasch

No watches are valid as of Sat Sep 30 22:13:02 UTC 2023.

MD 2206 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW NM AND SOUTHERN CO INTO THE FAR WESTERN OK/TX PANHANDLES.
Mesoscale Discussion 2206 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023 Areas affected...portions of eastern new NM and southern CO into the far western OK/TX Panhandles. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 302156Z - 010000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Scattered high-based thunderstorms may pose a risk for occasional damaging gusts and/or small hail through this evening. Storm organization potential appears low, and a WW is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...As of 2145 UTC, regional radar and satellite analysis showed scattered thunderstorms ongoing to the east of a broad upper low centered over the Desert Southwest. Over the last hour, these storms have gradually increased in coverage and intensity with a few stronger reflectively cores emerging over parts of east/northeastern NM. On the fringes of the upper-level cold core, surface dewpoints in the mid 40s F were supporting 500-750 J/kg of MLCAPE which should be sufficient for occasional stronger updrafts. Vertical shear remains modest with much of the stronger southerly flow aloft remaining to the west. However, this should increase with time and 25-30 kt of effective shear may support occasional updraft organization into sustained multicell clusters and or weak supercells. With cloud bases remaining relatively high (at or above 2 km) damaging outflow winds are possible with the more organized storms/clusters through this evening. A few instances of marginally severe hail are also possible given relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and the potential for a few transient supercell structures. Observational trends and recent hi-res guidance suggest scattered storms may pose an occasional severe threat over the next couple of hours into this evening. While flow aloft will continue to increase, nocturnal cooling of the relatively dry boundary layer will likely favor a gradual weakening after dark. Given the uncertainty on the longevity and organization of the potential severe threat, a WW is unlikely at this time. ..Lyons/Bunting.. 09/30/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 33170560 33550645 34520697 35060708 35540688 36360608 37440491 37820432 38010311 37870262 37240218 36100254 34690348 33530440 33220542 33170560 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z A broad mid-upper-level trough over the Great Basin this weekend will begin to move into the central/southern Plains by midweek. As this trough moves east, a cold front will move south-southeast through much of the Plains bringing with it an increase in precipitation and cooler, drier air. Although breezy conditions will develop across portions of the Plains ahead of the ejecting trough and approaching cold front, relative humidity should remain sufficiently high to preclude widespread fire weather concerns. ..Marsh.. 09/30/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts will be possible across parts of the Southwest, mainly from late afternoon into this evening. Storms have started to form over the mountains from central New Mexico to south-central Colorado. Expect an increase in coverage and intensity of these storms through the afternoon with a threat for isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. Instability remains quite weak across the Great Basin this afternoon. Weak instability has developed across southern Nevada, beneath the cooling temperatures aloft. However, extensive cloud cover across this area has limited surface heating and any greater instability. Farther south and east, heating is occurring across southern Utah and northern Arizona. However, this region is very dry with dewpoints in the 20s. Nonetheless, there may be adequate heating for a line of thunderstorms to develop from southwest Utah into northwest Arizona and vicinity later this afternoon. ..Bentley.. 09/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023/ ...Central/eastern NM to southeast CO... Low to mid-level moisture will gradually increase across most of NM into southeast CO, to the east of an amplified upper trough shifting east from CA to NV. In the wake of weakening morning convection across eastern NM, robust boundary-layer heating will yield a modestly unstable air mass by late afternoon with MLCAPE largely peaking around 1000 J/kg. Scattered late afternoon thunderstorms are expected to develop off the higher terrain of central to eastern NM into southern CO. Amid the peripheral influence of strengthening mid to upper flow associated with the CA/NV trough, modest-moving multicell clusters should evolve and offer a threat for sporadic severe wind gusts centered on 4 to 8 PM MDT. ...Southern Great Basin... Ahead of the aforementioned upper trough, a low-level baroclinic zone will strengthen somewhat as it shifts east this afternoon into tonight. The paucity of low to mid-level moisture within the warm sector ahead of this zone should delay convective initiation until at least early evening and likely confined to the Lower CO Valley vicinity. A slow-moving band of thunderstorms may evolve across northwest AZ to southwest UT along the edge of surface-based instability. Strong low to mid-level flow should compensate for the meager buoyancy and support a threat for sporadic severe wind gusts. Additional convection should form farther west over the Mojave Desert and spread north-northeast into western UT during the evening as mid-level cooling spreads east, but also coinciding with boundary-layer cooling. Localized strong to severe wind gusts and small hail will be possible with this activity before subsiding later tonight. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z No changes needed to the existing forecast. Please see the previous forecast discussion for more information. ..Marsh.. 09/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Sat Sep 30 2023/ ...Synopsis... The deepening upper low is forecast to gradually cut off from the stronger mid-level westerlies through the remainder of the weekend. As it settles over the Southwest, strong mid-level flow will continue to reside over parts of NM and the High Plains. Gusty winds and low afternoon humidity should support some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions D2/Sunday. ...Portions of NM and AZ... As the upper low begins to cut off, strong mid-level flow along the eastern periphery will linger over parts of the Southwest through the remainder of the weekend. Breezy southerly winds are expected much of the day across western NM and southeastern AZ, with gusts of 20-25 mph likely. While still relatively dry, the air mass beneath the upper low is expected to cool gradually, supporting higher RH recoveries overnight. Pockets of 15-20% RH still appear likely through the afternoon, but the air mass should be moderated by the cooler temperatures. Still, the gusty winds and localized dryness will support several hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather concerns within dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 292306
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Sep 29 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form well south of the coast
of southwestern Mexico early next week. Environmental conditions
are expected to support at least gradual development of the
disturbance and a tropical depression could form during the middle
to later part of the week while the system moves generally
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

No watches are valid as of Fri Sep 29 22:21:01 UTC 2023.