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The Storm Theatre Complex consists of 26 Backcountry fires and the Storm Creek Fire. The Storm Creek Fire is located 9 miles southeast of Powell, Idaho. The 26 Nez Perce-Clearwater National Forests Backcountry Fires are within an approximately 815,000 acre remote, roadless area north of Highway 12, east of the Clearwater River, South of the Idaho Panhandle National Forest, south of the Lolo National Forest, and west of the Bitterroot National Forest. The fires range in size from less than one acre to 15,000 acres.  These fires are being managed using a point protection strategy because of extreme competition for fire suppression resources and the comparably low values at risk.  There will be no more updates posted to this page unless there is significant fire activity to report. The Storm Theatre Complex fires will be included in future forest-wide updates as needed. These updates, as well as the most up to date closure information, can be found on the Nez...

The Dixie and Jumbo fires are located approximately 40 miles southeast of Grangeville and 15 miles south of Elk City, Idaho near the communities of Comstock and Dixie.  The Dixie Fire was started by lightning on July 5, 2021 and the Jumbo Fire was started by lightning on July 6, 2021.  The fires are burning in mixed conifer stands in steep and rugged terrain.  There will be no more updates posted to this page unless there is significant fire activity to report. The Dixie & Jumbo fires will be included in future forest-wide updates. These updates, as well as the most up to date closure information, can be found on the Nez Perce-Clearwater National Forests website

No watches are valid as of Tue Sep 14 18:06:02 UTC 2021.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 141739
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 14 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

MD 1743 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST LA AND VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 1743 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 Areas affected...Southeast LA and vicinity Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 141732Z - 141900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...The threat for a couple of supercells and an isolated tornado will persist through the afternoon, but a watch does not appear necessary at this time. DISCUSSION...On the far eastern fringes of weakening Tropical Storm Nicholas, there has been a recent uptick in supercell structures within a broken southeast-northwest oriented band. This convection is just east of the more persistent clouds/rain that are reducing buoyancy, and close to the east edge of the somewhat stronger flow/hodograph curvature noted in the LIX VWP. The environment is sufficient for occasional rotating storms in the eastern convective bands of Nicolas, though the threat for more than an isolated/brief tornado is still in question given only slow expected changes to the environment. Thus, this area will continue to be monitored, but a tornado watch does not appear necessary at this time. ..Thompson.. 09/14/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LIX... LAT...LON 29078937 29708983 30099040 30439046 30649028 30648987 30328930 29688865 29248860 28998900 29078937 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across the Ohio Valley with scattered severe storms possible into the Northeast Wednesday afternoon and evening. Damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Northeast into the Upper Ohio Valley... Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a mid-level short-wave trough over SD. This feature is forecast to advance to a position from lower MI into eastern IL by mid day Wednesday. Subsequently, this feature will move into the lower Great Lakes/OH Valley by 16/00z as strongest 500mb flow translates across northern New England into southeast Canada. Associated surface front will progress into upstate NY early in the period, trailing across the northern Hudson Valley-western PA by 18z. Strongest mid-level height falls will remain north of the international border, thus frontal convergence/boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental in convective development through the period. Latest guidance suggests the strongest heating will be noted across the central Appalachians into eastern PA where surface-3km lapse rates could approach 7.5 C/km by early afternoon. Northeast extent of this more buoyant air mass will stretch into the Hudson Valley prior to frontal passage. NAM forecast sounding at 17z for ALB depicts an uncapped surface parcel with 2700 J/kg MLCAPE and 45kt of surface-6km bulk shear. Scattered thunderstorms should easily develop within this environment and organized robust updrafts are expected given these conditions. Supercells are certainly possible prior to storm mergers and possible line segment development. Greatest tornado potential should extend along a corridor from the Hudson Valley across southern VT/NH into extreme southern ME. Otherwise, more isolated, less sheared, convection should extend southwest along the front across PA into WV. More unstable thermodynamic environment across this region will however support at least a threat for damaging winds and some hail. ...Central Gulf Coast... Remnants of Tropical Cyclone Nicholas will drift east across the upper TX Coast into southern LA during the day2 period. Poor lapse rates, due to extensive cloud cover, will greatly reduce buoyancy where low-level shear is maximized. Forecast soundings suggest southern MS into the western part of the FL Panhandle may experience the greatest combination of low-level shear with at least marginal surface heating. For these reasons, have adjusted the eastern edge of the MRGL Risk a bit east across the FL Panhandle. ..Darrow.. 09/14/2021 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY INTO LOWER MI...AND ACROSS EASTERN CO AND SOUTHWESTERN KS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms with damaging winds are expected this afternoon into tonight from parts of the Ohio Valley into Lower Michigan. Severe storms with large hail and damaging winds will also be possible late this afternoon into early tonight from eastern Colorado into southwestern Kansas. A tornado or two may occur through tonight across southern Louisiana with the remnants of Nicholas. ...Lower MI to the lower OH Valley this afternoon/evening... Elevated thunderstorms moved across northern Lower MI this morning in association with the primary ejecting midlevel trough over Upper MI/Lake Superior. A positive-tilt trough extends southwestward to eastern IA/northern IL, and this portion of the midlevel wave will combine with low-level ascent along a surface cold front to support additional storm development by mid afternoon from Lower MI into IN/IL. Surface temperatures warming into the 80s with dewpoints of 66-70 F will support MLCAPE greater than 2000 J/kg, which combined with straight hodographs and effective bulk shear of 25-35 kt will support line segments and clusters of storms along the front, with the potential to produce damaging outflow gusts given the strong buoyancy, steep low-level lapse rates, and 35-40+ kt midlevel flow (strongest across Lower MI). Isolated large hail will also be possible with the stronger embedded cells. ...Eastern CO/southwestern KS this afternoon into tonight... A weak upslope flow regime will establish today from western KS into eastern CO, on the cool side of a slow-moving cold front. Aloft, a series of subtle midlevel shortwave troughs will move east-southeastward atop the low-level upslope regime. Though moisture will be rather modest (boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 40s to low 50s), midlevel lapse rates of 7.5-8 C/km and daytime heating/mixing will contribute to MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg. The most probable area for storm initiation will be from the Palmer Divide (along a reinforcing frontal surge) southward in the immediate lee of the Front Range in CO, where convective inhibition will be weaker compared to the lower plains. Relatively long, straight hodographs will favor splitting supercells capable of producing large hail initially. Storm interactions could lead to some upscale growth and an increase in the potential for strong-severe outflow winds later this evening into early tonight, as storms spread southeastward. A few storms may also form along the front into southwest KS this afternoon, in an environment with sufficient vertical shear and buoyancy for supercells with at least isolated large hail/damaging winds. ...South central/southeast LA through tonight... Tropical Storm Nicholas continues to weaken along the upper TX coast this morning, after making landfall overnight as a minimal hurricane. The convective structure of the tropical cyclone has become quite asymmetric and ragged as a result of westerly shear aloft, and entrainment of relatively cool/dry air into the cyclone core. These factors will contribute to further weakening today into tonight as the cyclone drifts eastward near the northwest Gulf coast. Well east of the cyclone core, there will still be the potential for more discrete convection in the zone of sufficient vertical shear for supercells across south central/southeast LA where buoyancy will be larger compared to father west. ...Northeast OH/northwest PA into western NY this afternoon... A surface warm front will continue to move northeastward across NY, with a warm and moderately unstable warm sector established across western NY into eastern OH. Though the surface cold front will not approach this area until overnight, localized lake breeze boundaries may provide sufficient lift to initiate isolated storms this afternoon from northeast OH into western NY, with an attendant threat for isolated damaging winds and some hail, given MLCAPE approaching 2000 J/kg and effective bulk shear near 30 kt. An isolated supercell may also occur where vertical shear will be stronger along the warm front in NY, though this threat is highly conditional. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 09/14/2021 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Given weak large-scale forcing across the western CONUS, only localized fire weather concerns exist. Specifically, locally Elevated surface winds/RH may be observed this afternoon across the Snake River Plain in southern Idaho, the Great Divide Basin in southern Wyoming, and terrain-favoring areas of the Lower Colorado River Basin. Otherwise, a couple of dry strikes may accompany high-based storms across central Colorado into central New Mexico before moving into a moister ambient environment. The sparse nature of the dry strikes and marginal receptiveness of fuels to fire spread preclude isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 09/14/2021 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0117 AM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021/ ...Synopsis... Relatively benign fire weather conditions are expected today as winds are forecast to be light across most of the West with moist conditions expected across the East. Some locally elevated conditions may occur in portions of the central Rockies and the Southwest, but conditions aren't expected to be widespread or strong enough to warrant an elevated delineation. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

 As of Tuesday, September 14th, the Scarface Fire has merged with the Boundary Fire, and is being managed as one fire by Great Basin Incident Management Team 5 - Marty Adell, Incident Commander.   Please take note of the new Fire Information phone number 208-806-1719, which will be staffed daily from 8am - 8 pm, and email address 2021.boundary@firenet.gov     Visit Boundary Fire Information - InciWeb the Incident Information System (nwcg.gov) for continued

Gov. Gain Newsom issued three proclamations of a state of emergency concerning electricity since June, waiving certain permitting requirements to allow the use of backup power generation and allowing additional capacity to ease electric demand on the grid. Newsom also gave the California Energy Commission permission to hasten amendments to existing power plant licenses and issue new licenses to emergency and temporary generators. Natural Gas Intelligence (Washington, D.C.), Sept 13, 2021

No watches are valid as of Mon Sep 13 14:54:02 UTC 2021.

MD 1737 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 1737 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0952 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021 Areas affected...portions of west-central and southwestern Lower Michigan Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 131452Z - 131615Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Gusty winds -- possibly nearing severe levels locally -- will move onshore over the next half hour, across Muskegon and Ottawa Counties. However, storms should remain elevated/north of the front, which will limit any severe risk. DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms moving across southern Lake Michigan has organized a bit over the past half hour -- aided by fairly steep lapse rates aloft and strong mid-level westerlies -- with hints of bowing as a favored zone of updraft redevelopment is indicated along leading outflow. This suggests to at least some degree that downdrafts are penetrating the stable boundary layer north of the cold front over southern Lower Michigan/southern Lake Michigan. This convection will move onshore over the next half hour or so, with gusty winds expected. However, given the aforementioned stable layer, gusts should remain largely -- if not entirely -- below severe levels -- likely in the 40 to 50 MPH range. As such, WW is not currently anticipated, but we will continue to monitor convective evolution as storms approach/reach coastal counties. ..Goss/Thompson.. 09/13/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRR... LAT...LON 43448678 43468586 43288449 42698467 42478538 42628709 42668750 43448678 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...NORTHEAST STATES...AND TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible from eastern South Dakota and southern Minnesota/northern Iowa into Wisconsin late this afternoon and tonight, in addition to parts of southern New York, northern Pennsylvania and New Jersey. A couple of tornadoes could occur along the Texas Coast. ...Dakotas to Minnesota/Iowa/Wisconsin... An eastward-progressive shortwave trough over the northern High Plains will reach Minnesota/northern Wisconsin and the Lake Superior vicinity tonight. Influenced by forcing for ascent related to this trough, storms are likely to persist/increase across parts of the Dakotas and northern Nebraska through the morning, with some of these storms strong to locally severe. Cool temperatures aloft and ample deep-layer shear may support hail with the elevated storms, although strong winds may also develop by early/mid-afternoon across eastern South Dakota as the boundary layer destabilizes. Meanwhile, a surface low and nearby eastward-extending warm front will develop north-northeastward late this afternoon through tonight. Modest destabilization will occur near the surface low/warm front around the Iowa/Minnesota border vicinity, although mid-level capping may tend to persist away from the upstream shortwave trough and southeastward-moving cold front crossing the Dakotas. This should result in a nocturnally increasing severe risk across southern Minnesota/northern Iowa into Wisconsin. Storm mode may become mixed, and partially elevated, but indications are that a few severe cells and possibly an MCS may accompany the progressive upper trough and nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. Elevated supercells with large hail may occur aside from the potential for damaging winds with the more prevalent linear segments. ...Western/southern New York and northern Pennsylvania/New Jersey... Much of the day will be void of thunderstorms, allowing for strong instability to redevelop across the region. A front will remain nearly stationary from Lake Erie across northern Pennsylvania and New Jersey, with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints to the south. Though a shortwave trough will be departing the region early in the day, cool mid-level temperatures will remain in place, resulting in steep mid-level lapse rates. Weak warm advection in the low levels combined with moistening around 700 mb out of the northwest is expected to lead to isolated storms after about 03Z near and just north of the boundary. Large hail will be possible with any of these cells, and a few strong gusts may also occur where storms have access to the stronger instability. ...Middle/upper Texas Coast... Per the National Hurricane Center, Tropical Storm Nicholas is expected to gradually strengthen as it moves northward over the far western Gulf of Mexico toward the middle Texas Coast. Low-level moisture/shear will increase into coastal areas coincident with this system, and some tornado risk may exist particularly later this afternoon into tonight and Tuesday. ..Guyer/Smith.. 09/13/2021 Read more

139
ABPZ20 KNHC 131136
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Sep 13 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms have increased overnight in association
with an elongated area of low pressure located more than 100 miles
southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Environmental conditions are
marginally conducive for development, and a tropical depression
could form during the next couple of days while it moves westward
or west-northwestward just offshore of the coast of southern
Mexico. Regardless of development, this system will likely produce
heavy rains across portions of southern and southwestern Mexico
through Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Hagen

Trail Closures are once again in effect. Trails to the west of the fire are closed until further notice. Please reference the maps and closures section for more information.The Club Fire experienced growth to the east and northeast on September 6 and 7, 2021 adding about 1,400 acres to the total acreage. Subsequent days have continued to see growth to the east/northeast due to high winds and low relative humidity, however cloud and smoke cover on the morning of September 10  was limiting fire behavior. The fire is surrounded by burn scars from previous fires, though some older burned areas are not slowing growth. The fire has been burning actively through the 1988 Silver Fire, but managers are not seeing active spread through the 2007 Tag Fire area. Firefighters are in place at Cold Meadows Guard Station establishing point protection for the administrative site. As of September 9th, the fire was estimated to be around 2.5 miles to the southwest of Cold Meadows. This fire started...

The Vinegar Fire has not had active fire behavior for two weeks (since the last rain) as of September 10, 2021.  This fire started approximately 2 miles north of the Cabin Creek administrative site. Crews have put point protection measures in place at Cabin Creek. The Cabin Creek airstrip is closed to general aviation, NOTAM # I0807-141. The Club, Rush Creek, and Vinegar fires were started by lightning on July 15, 2021. A local Type 4 Incident Management organization is managing the fires. There are no closures associated with this fire, however; new trail closures are in effect for the Club Fire.Three fires are burning in the Frank Church River of No Return Wilderness on the Payette National Forest. The Club, Rush Creek, and Vinegar fires were started by lightning on July 15, 2021.All closures have been lifted and the Cabin Creek airstrip is open for general aviation use.When recreating in the burned area, the public needs to manage their own risk by being aware of...

The Rush Creek Fire grew to the southeast and increased in size by 1,400 acres on September 7, 2021, subsequent days saw backing fire and slower spread. Cloud and smoke cover the morning of September 10th has been limiting fire activity. The fire is working its way towards Lookout Mountain Ridge and Black Pole.  This fire started at the confluence of Telephone and Rush Creeks, 14 miles southwest of Taylor Ranch (origin lat/long: 45 59 00 x 114 59 35). After initial attack was unsuccessful, crews moved on to point protection.  They completed that work and were brought out by helicopter on Monday, July 26.The Rush Fire has and will continue to actively burn until we receive a fair amount of rain over the fire.  The fire is being closely managed, but tree stands within basins and bowls are continuing to ignite as wind moves through the area.  Ridges of rock outcroppings and other terrain barriers will assist in keeping the fire from growing larger and threatening values.  There...

Three fires are burning in the Frank Church River of No Return Wilderness on the Payette National Forest. The Club, Rush Creek, and Vinegar fires were started by lightning on July 15, 2021.A trail closure in the area of the Club Fire was put in place on September 9th. Please review this closure in updated documents and maps at the Club Fire Inciweb page.When recreating in the burned area, the public needs to manage their own risk by being aware of uncontrolled fire, fire weakened trees, rolling debris and loose footing. The Rush Creek Fire experienced growth to the southeast and increased in size by 1,400 acres on September 6.  After this growth, the fire has continued to slowly spread, backing into the wind to the South and West. It is working its way towards lookout mountain Ridge and Black Pole. This fire started at the confluence of Telephone and Rush Creeks, 14 miles southwest of Taylor Ranch (lat/long: 45 59 00 x 114 59 35).  Following two days of unsuccessful initial...

 Cove Fire Started due to a lightning strike on Sunday September 5th and has shown very low activity. Curranty burning in moderate mesquite and juniper brush. Texas A&M Forest Service is in unified command with local responders as of Friday September

As of September 9, the Chaparral Fire is approximately 1,427 acres and 100% contained. Crews have constructed fire line and installed hose around the entire fire. They have mopped up all instances of detectable heat. Day-shift fire patrol will continue to monitor for heat.  No road closures, evacuation orders, or evacuation warnings are in effect. However, the Cleveland National Forest is temporarily closed as part of a larger emergency forest closure issued by USDA Forest Service Pacific Southwest Region.The September 1 public information map will be the last map produced for this