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A cold case of a man missing for 14 years has been reopened in Cass County by the sheriff's office. Drought has made the area that the man disappeared in more easily searchable with low water levels in the ditches and lowlands that were previously filled with water. FOX 9 Minneapolis-St. Paul (Minn.), Oct 9, 2023

Rainfall in the DMV has been lacking for producing giant pumpkins. Even irrigation was not enough to grow big pumpkins, according to a farmer in Loudoun County, Virginia. Rainfall was about 50% of normal, and pumpkins turned out about half of the expected size. WJLA (Arlington, Va.), Oct 9, 2023

Apples were ripening and dropping earlier than usual as drought stressed the trees. Some apples were smaller than normal. One grower, taking drought conditions into consideration, opted to knock more apples off the trees to give the remaining apples a better chance of growing to full size. WJLA (Arlington, Va.), Oct 9, 2023

The Alabama Department of Agriculture and Industries consulted with the Alabama Department of Transportation to waive the hay hauling permit fee, due to drought. Haulers still have to apply for a permit and comply with the requirements. The Dothan Eagle (Dothan, Ala.), Oct 6, 2023

Apples from an orchard in Winona County were smaller than usual and were less red. Winona Post (Minn.), Oct 6, 2023

Extreme heat and drought resulted in Baton Rouge’s University Lakes partially drying up. The lakes were being renovated starting late this summer, but the low level of the lakes was not due to dredging or construction. The lakes are quite shallow, roughly five feet deep. LSU Reveille (Baton Rouge, La.), Oct 6, 2023

The Missouri governor’s cattle farm in Bolivar has been feeding hay since July. Many ranchers have already sold cattle rather than buy expensive hay after the pasture dried up. Some cattle herds have been completely liquidated. St. Louis Post Dispatch (Mo.), Oct 6, 2023

The rain in Floyd County stopped mid-July and was not enough to keep the pumpkins growing, despite irrigation. Peak growing season for pumpkins is mid-July and August, according to a Texas A&M AgriLife Extension agriculture agent in Floyd County. Pumpkin growers have seen a sharp decline of 20% to 40% in production. Rain at harvest time was not helpful. The High Plains region of Texas is a significant pumpkin-producing region. Lubbock Avalanche-Journal (Texas), Oct 8, 2023

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 08 Oct 2023 23:58:23 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 08 Oct 2023 21:29:31 GMT

Issued at 700 PM CDT Sun Oct 08 2023 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 082358 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162023 700 PM CDT Sun Oct 08 2023 ...DEPRESSION BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WHILE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST TOMORROW... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 101.9W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Acapulco to Punta San Telmo A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen-E was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 101.9 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a gradual turn northward and then north-northeastward is expected on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is forecast to reach the coast of southern Mexico within the warning area by late Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight. Rapid weakening is expected after the system moves inland on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for the disturbance can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP1.shtml RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Sixteen-E is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Tuesday across the states of Guerrero, Michoacan and the coastal sections of western Oaxaca in southwest Mexico. These rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area on Monday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Hogsett/Brown

...DEPRESSION BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WHILE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST TOMORROW... As of 7:00 PM CDT Sun Oct 8 the center of Sixteen-E was located near 16.1, -101.9 with movement NNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 600 PM MDT Sun Oct 08 2023 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 082355 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lidia Intermediate Advisory Number 23A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023 600 PM MDT Sun Oct 08 2023 ...LIDIA MOVING NORTHWARD... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE LANDFALL... SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 112.7W ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM WSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Las Islas Marias * Playa Perula to Mazatlan A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya * Manzanillo to Playa Perula A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in west-central Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Lidia. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 112.7 West. Lidia is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A faster northeastward or east-northeastward motion is expected on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Lidia should approach the Islas Marias and the coast of west-central Mexico on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Lidia is expected to be a hurricane before it approaches the coast of west-central Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lidia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml RAINFALL: Lidia is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Wednesday across the southern portions of the state of Sinaloa, western portions of the state of Nayarit and coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in southwest Mexico. These rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the south of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by late Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch areas beginning Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Lidia will affect the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California peninsula for the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...LIDIA MOVING NORTHWARD... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE LANDFALL... As of 6:00 PM MDT Sun Oct 8 the center of Lidia was located near 17.9, -112.7 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 08 Oct 2023 23:55:36 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 08 Oct 2023 21:22:57 GMT

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 082327
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Oct 8 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Lidia, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical
Depression Sixteen-E, located located less than 200 miles south of
the southern coast of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Sixteen-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Sixteen-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Brown

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Oct 8 22:36:02 UTC 2023.

No watches are valid as of Sun Oct 8 22:36:02 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Sun Oct 08 2023 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A mid-level trough is expected to eject into the Atlantic Ocean early this week as a second mid-level trough amplifies over the Interior West and ejects into the Plains states/Mississippi Valley during the mid to late part of the week. As this occurs, strong surface cyclone development is expected across the Plains states, accompanied by ample southerly moisture return. As the trough shunts eastward toward the Appalachian mountains, a surface cold front will sweep across the central U.S., reinforced by high pressure and cooler/dry air. In the immediate post cold front/dryline environment, dry and windy conditions may prevail across the southern High Plains into central Texas during the Days 5-6/Thursday-Friday period. However, given recent rainfall, questions remain regarding how receptive fuels will be for fire spread. As such, the status of the finest (i.e. 1-10 h fuels) will continue to be monitored for drying trends and subsequent need for fire weather highlights. ..Squitieri.. 10/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 08 2023 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 082039 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162023 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 08 2023 Since the prior advisory, 1-minute visible images from the GOES-18 mesosector have been quite helpful in showing that the system we have been monitoring just south of Zihuatanejo has developed a well-defined circulation located a bit farther northwest of previous estimations. This circulation was farther supported by a 1702 UTC GMI pass which showed tightly curved bands wrapping most of the way around this apparent center on the 37 GHz channel. Thus, the system now can be considered a tropical depression, and the initial intensity is 30 kt for this advisory, which is in between the T1.5/25-kt estimates from TAFB and SAB versus 35-kt from the D-PRINT estimate from UW-CIMSS. Now that the center has become well-defined, it has formed farther northwest than earlier estimated. This should not be considered an acceleration in the short-term motion though, which still appears to be slowly off to the north-northwest at 340/4 kt. This slow motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn northward and then north-northeastward as the system is steered around mid-level ridging located east of it over the Caribbean Sea in addition to the outer circulation of Tropical Storm Lidia to its west. Given the farther northwestward initial position, the timing for landfall has moved up a bit to between 24-36 h, by tomorrow evening. There continues to be some spread in this landfall timing, with the GFS remaining on the faster end versus the slower CMC and ECMWF solutions. The latest NHC track forecast more or less splits the difference, which is close to both the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids, though most of the guidance now agrees the system should be inland after 36 hours. Intensification is still forecast up until the system moves inland over Mexico. With landfall now between 24-36 h, there might not be quite as much time for intensification as previously expected. With that said, both the raw model output from the ECMWF and CMC suggest significant intensification over the next 24 hours before the depression makes landfall, and out of respect of these models, a peak intensity of 45 kt continues to be shown just before landfall. This is on the higher end of the intensity guidance envelope. The system should quickly weaken after moving inland, ultimately dissipating over the higher rugged terrain of south-central Mexico by 48 hours. However, the significant up-slope flow that will result is anticipated to continue producing very heavy rainfall into Tuesday over coastal and inland Mexico as the cyclone and its remnants move farther inland. Key Messages: 1. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm before it approaches the coast of southern Mexico on Monday. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for a portion of the coast of southern Mexico. 2. Heavy rains from this system will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain across the states of Guerrero, Michoacan and coastal sections of western Oaxaca. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 15.9N 101.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 16.5N 101.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 17.2N 101.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 18.0N 101.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 08 2023 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 082039 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162023 2100 UTC SUN OCT 08 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT L CARDENAS 34 1 20(21) 6(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) L CARDENAS 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ZIHUATANEJO 34 2 32(34) 6(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ZIHUATANEJO 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ACAPULCO 34 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN