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Issued at 700 PM CDT Mon Oct 09 2023 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 092357 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Max Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162023 700 PM CDT Mon Oct 09 2023 ...MAX MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 101.2W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Acapulco to Lazaro Cardenas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Max was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 101.2 West. Max has been moving due north over the last several hours, but it is expected to resume a motion toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). This motion is expected to continue until dissipation as the cyclone moves further inland over southern Mexico. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected to continue as Max moves farther inland, with the storm expected to dissipate over Mexico late tonight or on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Max can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP1.shtml RAINFALL: Max is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Tuesday across the states of Guerrero and Michoacan. These rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area and expected to continue through this evening. SURF: Swells generated by Max will affect the southern coast of Mexico for the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Hogsett/Brown

...MAX MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... As of 7:00 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 the center of Max was located near 17.9, -101.2 with movement NNE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Oct 2023 23:56:48 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Oct 2023 21:29:26 GMT

Issued at 600 PM MDT Mon Oct 09 2023 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 092356 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lidia Intermediate Advisory Number 27A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023 600 PM MDT Mon Oct 09 2023 ...LIDIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT... ...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 110.6W ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Las Islas Marias * Playa Perula to Escuinapa A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Escuinapa to Bahia Tempehuaya * Manzanillo to Playa Perula A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in west-central Mexico should monitor the progress of Lidia. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 110.6 West. Lidia is moving toward the east-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A faster east-northeastward motion is expected this evening and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Lidia should approach Las Islas Marias on Tuesday, and move inland over west-central Mexico late Tuesday or Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast tonight and Tuesday, and Lidia is expected to be a hurricane when it approaches Las Islas Marias and the coast of west-central Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lidia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml RAINFALL: Lidia is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Wednesday across the state Nayarit, southern portions of the state of Sinaloa, and coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western Mexico. These rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the south of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the warning area on Tuesday, with winds expected to first reach tropical storm strength by Tuesday morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning areas beginning Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Lidia will affect the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California peninsula for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...LIDIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT... ...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO ON TUESDAY... As of 6:00 PM MDT Mon Oct 9 the center of Lidia was located near 18.2, -110.6 with movement ENE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Oct 2023 23:56:21 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Oct 2023 21:23:01 GMT

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 092318
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Oct 9 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Lidia, located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical
Storm Max, located inland near the southern coast of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Brown

No watches are valid as of Mon Oct 9 23:16:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Oct 9 23:16:01 UTC 2023.

Cotton, soybeans, some of those commodities are really hurting, due to drought, according to the commissioner of the Alabama Department of Agriculture and Industries. WSFA (Montgomery, Ala.), Oct 4, 2023

Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 09 2023 955 WTPZ41 KNHC 092037 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Max Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162023 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 09 2023 Max is estimated to have made landfall around 1800 UTC just to the west of Puerto Vicente Guerrero in the Mexican Provence of Guerrero. Data received from the a Mexican surface observing site at that location just after the intermediate advisory suggested the tropical storm might have been a little stronger than initially assessed, reporting sustained tropical-storm-force winds with a minimum pressure of 994 mb. Thus, the 18 UTC working best track intensity was adjusted to 55 kt with a 991 mb pressure. Since that time, the satellite structure has begun to degrade, likely as the surface circulation begins to be disrupted by the high rugged terrain of south-central Mexico. Thus, some weakening is assumed since that time with the current intensity assessed at 50 kt. Further rapid weakening is anticipated as the small tropical cyclone moves further inland, and by this time tomorrow Max is likely to be little more than a remnant mid-level circulation moving poleward with enhanced moisture over central Mexico. The initial motion still appears to be north-northeast at 030/5 kt. This motion should continue until Max dissipates over the higher terrain of Mexico. The track guidance following the low-level center quickly lose the system beyond 12 h, and the updated track forecast is little changed from the prior one. Even as Max dissipates, its mid-level remains and larger moisture plume will likely result in significant upslope rainfall, leading to flash flooding and mudslides pushing into inland Mexico. Key Messages: 1. Max is forecast to continue bringing tropical storm conditions through this evening to portions of the southern coast of Mexico where a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect. 2. Heavy rains from Max will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain across the states of Guerrero and Michoacan. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 17.6N 101.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 18.2N 100.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Oct 09 2023 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 092037 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023 300 PM MDT Mon Oct 09 2023 Satellite images indicate that Lidia is becoming better organized. Deep convection is consolidating near the center and it appears that an inner core is forming. In addition, a large curved band has developed on the south and east sides of the circulation. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters investigated Lidia earlier this afternoon and found that the minimum pressure was quite low, around 985 mb. A combination of the aircraft flight-level wind and SFMR data support increasing the wind speed to 60 kt, and is possible that this is conservative. The aircraft data and recent satellite images suggest that the center has reformed to the south of the previous positions. Since the center of Lidia appears to have reformed, the initial motion of 065/7 kt is uncertain. Water vapor images show a mid- to upper-level trough approaching Lidia, and that feature should steer the storm relatively quickly to the east-northeast toward west-central Mexico. The main change for this forecast cycle is associated with Lidia's reformation, which is roughly 1 degree south of the previous estimates. Based on the initial position adjustment, the new track forecast lies to the south of the previous prediction. This forecast is close to the consensus aids and roughly halfway between the fast GFS solution and the much slower ECMWF run. Based on the new forecast, Lidia is expected to reach the coast of Mexico Tuesday afternoon/evening. Since Lidia appears to be developing an inner core while moving into conducive environmental conditions, significant strengthening is forecast. The storm is expected to move over SSTs near 30 C and into a favorable upper-level wind pattern. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and is in good agreement with the hurricane regional models. Rapid weakening is forecast once Lidia moves inland due to the rugged terrain in west-central Mexico. Key Messages: 1. Lidia is forecast to strengthen before it reaches west-central Mexico, and hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area beginning Tuesday. 2. Heavy rains from Lidia will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain across the the state of Nayarit, southern portions of the state of Sinaloa, and coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western Mexico. 3. A dangerous storm surge is expected near and to the south of where the center of Lidia moves over the Islas Marias and the coast of west-central Mexico. 4. Swells from Lidia will cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions along the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 18.1N 110.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 18.7N 109.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 20.0N 107.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 21.8N 104.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 09 2023 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 092037 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM MAX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162023 2100 UTC MON OCT 09 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MAX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ZIHUATANEJO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 09 2023 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 092036 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM LIDIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023 2100 UTC MON OCT 09 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LIDIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 2 38(40) 32(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X 3( 3) 14(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MAZATLAN 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN BLAS 34 1 12(13) 59(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) SAN BLAS 50 X 1( 1) 20(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) P VALLARTA 34 X 9( 9) 58(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) P VALLARTA 50 X 1( 1) 21(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MANZANILLO 34 1 6( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) L CARDENAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 24 7(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) ISLA SOCORRO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 09 2023 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 092036 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM MAX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162023 2100 UTC MON OCT 09 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 101.0W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 20NE 50SE 50SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 45SE 45SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 101.0W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 101.2W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.2N 100.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 101.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 10/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 09 2023 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 092036 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152023 2100 UTC MON OCT 09 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 110.9W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 40SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 120SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 110.9W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 111.4W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.7N 109.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 15SE 10SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 20.0N 107.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 21.8N 104.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 110.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 10/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CDT Mon Oct 09 2023 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A mid-level trough will amplify over the central Rockies and eject into the Plains states during the Days 3-5/Wednesday-Friday period, supporting the deepening of a surface cyclone over the central High Plains. From Wednesday-Friday, the mid-level trough and surface cyclone will shift eastward toward the MS Valley, with strong, dry westerly surface winds expected in the post-cold front/dryline environment. While fuels are marginally receptive to fire spread overall, fuels appear more locally receptive across portions of central New Mexico, into far western Texas, eastern Colorado, and western Kansas. 40 percent critical probabilities have been added Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday for areas that should experience the best overlap of dry/windy surface conditions and relatively more receptive fuels. By late this week through the weekend, surface high pressure and associated cooler temperatures will overspread much of the central and southern CONUS, limiting significant wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 10/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon Oct 09 2023 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes needed to the ongoing forecast. See previous outlook appended below for more forecast details. ..Mosier.. 10/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT Mon Oct 09 2023/ ...Synopsis... Mid-morning surface observations continue to depict cool and dry conditions across a majority of the country. The broad northwest flow regime over the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS will limit thunderstorm potential and maintain quiescent conditions with the exception of a few regions. Lingering low/mid-level moisture over the Southwest and steep mid-level lapse rates will foster another day of orographically-driven thunderstorms. Weak moisture return into the southern High Plains may support isolated thunderstorms across parts of CO, NM, and the OK/TX Panhandles late this afternoon. Deep boundary-layer mixing may support a few strong downbursts, but confidence in the potential for severe wind is too limited for probabilities. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible this evening/later tonight across the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies as ascent associated with an approaching upper wave overspreads the region. Across the southern FL Panhandle, a few thunderstorms are possible along/south of a stalled frontal boundary. 30-40 knot mid-level flow may support transient storm organization with sufficiently deep/mature convection, but as with previous days, forcing for ascent will likely be too weak/nebulous to support a substantial severe threat over land. Read more

Dry conditions contributed to a 40-acre wildfire in Gulf Breeze, according to the Florida Forestry Service. Fires have been occurring almost daily, but no burn bans were in effect. WEAR-TV ABC 3 Pensacola (Fla.), Oct 9, 2023

A cold case of a man missing for 14 years has been reopened in Cass County by the sheriff's office. Drought has made the area that the man disappeared in more easily searchable with low water levels in the ditches and lowlands that were previously filled with water. FOX 9 Minneapolis-St. Paul (Minn.), Oct 9, 2023