Aggregator

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 021110
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Jul 2 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Atlantic
basin Tropical Storm Bonnie currently located inland near the
Nicaragua/Costa Rica border. The system is forecast to complete
crossing Central America and move into the east Pacific basin, as a
tropical cyclone, later today.

Central East Pacific:
Showers and thunderstorms have largely dissipated in association
with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Development
of this system is not expected as it is already over cool waters
and in a dry environment.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi

Request for assistance from local fire department to Texas A&M Forest Service (TAMFS) was received at approximately 4:13 pm on June 30, 2022.  The fire is located in the area of Gas Plant Road near the town of Silver, Coke County, Texas. Resources from the TAMFS San Angelo which includes engines, dozers and hand-crew module are assigned to the fire.  TAMFS Incident Commander (IC) is working in unified command with local IC.  The fire is reported to be 300 acres with active fire behavior burning in grass, juniper and mesquite.  Currently one ranch is threatened. Aerial resources have been assigned to the fire.  This includes Aerial Supervision Platform, Lead Plane, 4 Airtankers and Air Bosses.  Concerns are fire's resistance to control, extended drought, dry vegetation and high

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Fri Jul 01 2022 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z The forecast remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 07/01/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0125 AM CDT Fri Jul 01 2022/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will gradually approach the West Coast as an upper ridge remains in place across the Interior West into the Plains. Under the upper ridge, most locales should experience relatively quiescent fire weather conditions on a widespread basis. The one exception would be portions of central into southern Nevada, where guidance consensus suggests Elevated surface winds/RH will overspread very dry fuels during the afternoon. Otherwise, a couple of dry lightning strikes may accompany scattered thunderstorms developing from a monsoonal environment across the Intermountain West. However, mediocre fuel receptiveness or spareness of dry strikes precludes dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Jul 1 16:37:01 UTC 2022.

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CDT Fri Jul 01 2022 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST WY...SOUTHWEST SD...AND NORTHWEST NE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe wind and hail will be possible from about 4 to 10 PM MDT in northeast Wyoming across the Black Hills to the Nebraska Sandhills. ...High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop off the Big Horns to the Sangre de Cristos and spread east across the adjacent High Plains later this afternoon within a plume of upper 40s to mid 50s surface dew points. The greatest potential for organized severe storms will exist across the northern portion of this region from eastern WY into western SD and northwest NE. Here, moderate to strong deep-layer speed shear with height will yield effective bulk values of 40-50 kt and an elongated straight-line hodograph. A few high-based outflow-dominated supercells with mid-level rotation should develop and congeal into a cluster this evening. Initial mix of severe hail and wind transitioning to predominately wind will be the primary threats. A lack of appreciable low-level forcing for ascent this evening in conjunction with a nocturnally stabilizing boundary layer should result in these threats diminishing towards late evening. Farther south to the Raton Mesa, slow-moving thunderstorms may pose a threat for very isolated severe wind gusts and marginally severe wind hail during the late afternoon and evening. ...Lower Great Lakes to the Lower MO Valley... A low-amplitude shortwave impulse near the NE/IA border will shift east along the southern periphery of seasonably moderate to strong mid-level westerlies across the Great Lakes to northern IL/IN/OH. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible along and just ahead of a cold front sagging southeast across southeast Lower MI through eastern KS later this afternoon. Abundant cloud coverage and weak mid-level lapse rates should temper updraft intensity in the more strongly sheared regime near the Lower Great Lakes. Nevertheless, a few multicell clusters and transient supercell structures may develop with a threat for isolated damaging winds and severe hail through about dusk. ...Mid-Atlantic States... Localized damaging winds and marginally severe hail will be possible through this afternoon as low-level warm theta-e advection-driven convection over the central Appalachians spreads east towards the Mid-Atlantic coast. Poor mid-level lapse rates evident in available 12Z observed soundings and modest deep-layer flow will be limiting factors to a more robust/organized severe threat. See MCD 1314 for further short-term discussion. Additional thunderstorms may spread towards the region tonight from the Lower Great Lakes/Upper OH Valley, but should largely be in a decaying state. ...Northern ME... Pronounced differential diabatic heating and weak low-level convergence may aid in isolated thunderstorms near the Saint Lawrence Valley into southeast QC later this afternoon. Morning guidance suggests a nadir in low-level moisture will be present across parts of western New England, but adequate moisture may still hold across northern ME. This may yield a corridor of weak buoyancy amid poor mid-level lapse rates. The most favorable factor will be effective bulk shear of 40-50 kts, which would conditionally support a supercell or two, but confidence is low. ..Grams/Wendt.. 07/01/2022 Read more

MD 1314 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WESTERN/NORTHERN MD...EASTERN WV...SOUTHERN PA...NORTHERN VA...NORTHERN DE...DC
Mesoscale Discussion 1314 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CDT Fri Jul 01 2022 Areas affected...Western/northern MD...Eastern WV...Southern PA...Northern VA...Northern DE...DC Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 011559Z - 011830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon, with a threat of isolated damaging wind gusts and possibly some hail. DISCUSSION...Convection has gradually been increasing late this morning across southern PA into eastern WV, within a zone of richer moisture in the 925-850 mb layer depicted in the 12Z PIT sounding and recent objective mesoanalyses. Diurnal heating and continued low-level moisture transport will support an increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity this afternoon, as convection gradually spreads eastward toward the I-95 corridor. MLCAPE increasing above 2000 J/kg will support vigorous updrafts, though marginal effective shear (generally in the 20-30 kt range) will limit storm organization to some extent. Steepening low-level lapse rates will support a threat of locally damaging wind gusts this afternoon, and isolated hail will also be possible with the strongest cells. With storm organization expected to remain rather limited, watch issuance is considered unlikely at this time. ..Dean/Grams.. 07/01/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON 40318004 40797727 40687595 40387568 39597557 39257544 38777663 38507779 38257883 38347938 38657995 39108031 39768044 40318004 Read more

Drought and increased water demand have led several northwest Iowa communities to ask residents to conserve water. The cities of Storm Lake, Sheldon, Wahpeton and Marcus have urged residents to avoid watering lawns, filling private pools and washing vehicles during daylight hours. KICD AM1240 & FM98.3 (Spencer, Iowa), July 1, 2022

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Fri Jul 01 2022 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST WYOMING ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS REGION TO THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS... ...SUMMARY... Severe gusts and isolated large hail will be possible this afternoon and evening from northeast Wyoming across the Black Hills region to the Nebraska Sandhills. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a mostly low-amplitude synoptic pattern will characterize the prevailing westerlies across the northern half of the CONUS, downstream from a slow-moving cyclone and trough located offshore from the Pacific Coast. Ridging should amplify somewhat over the northern Rockies, while another mid/upper low shifts largely eastward over the southern coastline of Hudson Bay. Associated cyclonic flow will shift eastward across the Great Lakes and Northeast through the period, with gradual height falls much of today and tonight over the Lower Great Lakes region, northern Appalachians and most of New England. An embedded shortwave trough -- evident in moisture-channel imagery across portions of Upper MI, WI and southern/central MN -- should move eastward across Lower MI and southern ON today, then over northern New England tonight. A minor perturbation preceding that is located over southwestern QC and parts of eastern ON, and should move down the St. Lawrence River/estuary near ME today. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a wavy cold front from Lake Huron across southern Lake Michigan, northern IL, extreme southeastern NE, and western KS. This front should move to southeastern ON, northern IN, central portions of IL/MO, and southwestern KS by 00Z. By 12Z tomorrow, the cold front should extend from northern NY across OH to parts of southern IL, becoming quasistationary across southern MO and southern/southwestern KS. ...High Plains... Scattered to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into early evening around the Black Hills in WY/SD, spreading into parts of northwestern NE this evening before weakening. Severe gusts are possible, along with isolated large hail. Diurnal heating, and moist advection with 50s F surface dewpoints, should underlie 7-8 deg C/km midlevel lapse rates, contributing to MLCAPE in the 1000-1500 J/kg range. Even though low-level winds are not forecast to be very strong (generally less than 10 kt through the boundary layer except very near convection), substantial veering with height is expected beneath the midlevel west-northwesterly flow. This will support a blend of multicells and at least transient supercellular characteristics, with attendant severe-gust and large-hail threats. Some aggregation of this activity is possible into the evening, with localized reinforcement of severe- gust potential, before the convection moves into a nocturnally stabilizing boundary layer and wind potential diminishes. Farther south, and close to the mid/upper-level subtropical ridging, flow aloft and deep shear will be weak. Nonetheless, clusters of convection -- forming over higher terrain during the afternoon -- may shift eastward across the central High Plains atop a very well- heated/mixed boundary layer and steep low-level lapse rates, with isolated severe gusts/hail possible. ...Northeastern CONUS to KS and lower Missouri Valley... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible along/ahead of the cold front this afternoon into evening. Isolated severe gusts/hail may occur in the most intense multicell storms/clusters and/or short convective bands. Multiple relative concentrations of convection and/or severe potential are possible on the mesobeta-scale, but predictability remains too limited to highlight any within the broader 5%/marginal outlook corridor at this time. A small midlevel perturbation and related MCV -- now apparent in radar imagery over central/north-central KS -- may enhance shear and low-level lift somewhat over parts of the middle Mississippi/lower Ohio Valley regions today. Ahead of the cold front, favorable moisture should remain over the lengthy region, with surface dew points commonly in the 60s F and locally around 70 over the lower Ohio/middle Mississippi Valley regions, where localized water-loaded downdrafts are the most likely potential source of damaging to marginally severe gusts. Hotter conditions with better-mixed subcloud layers (but also weaker CAPE due to modest midlevel lapse rates) are expected over some areas over and east of the Alleghenies in the eastern parts of the corridor, and across parts of KS and western MO. Though south of the main belt of westerlies over most of this corridor, effective- shear magnitudes of 25-35 kt in the west, and 30-40 kt elsewhere, should support some multicellular organization. Diurnal heating and low-level lift near the front will be the main foci for convection, though some persistence of loosely organized, cold-pool-driven activity may occur this evening in the eastern Ohio Valley/central Appalachians region. ...Northern ME... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms - perhaps including a supercell or two -- may move across northern ME this afternoon into early evening. Isolated severe hail and/or damaging gusts are possible. An area of clouds/precip this morning -- related to a zone of strong low-level warm advection/isentropic ascent -- should depart the region through the remainder of the morning. Diabatic surface heating and continuing warm advection will contribute to gradual destabilization throughout the day, as mid/upper ascent subtly increases with the passage/approach of the low-amplitude shortwave troughs. Mid/upper-level lapse rates will remain modest, but low-level theta-e should increase enough to support the development of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Meanwhile, increasing mid/upper-level flow will boost effective-shear magnitudes into the 40-50-kt range. Veering of boundary-layer winds with height also may produce 150-200 J/kg effective SRH and curved hodographs. Diurnal heating (including effects along differential-heating/outflow boundaries) and prefrontal surface troughing may provide sufficient lift over and west of this area to support initiation. ..Edwards/Goss.. 07/01/2022 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011137
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jul 1 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Atlantic
basin Potential Tropical Cyclone Two, currently located over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea. The system is forecast to cross Central
America and move into the east Pacific basin, as a tropical cyclone,
on Saturday.

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
Satellite data from several hours ago indicate that the area of low
pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula still did not have a
well-defined circulation. The associated showers and thunderstorms
have generally changed little during the past several hours, and
the system only has about another day to become a short-lived
tropical depression before it reaches cooler waters and a dry air
mass while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Hogsett

The San Francisco Public Utilities Commission, the primary water provider for 2.7 million residents and businesses in the Bay Area, acted on May 24 to further reduce systemwide water use as urged by Governor Gavin Newsom and the State Quality Control board. The commission was pushing for an 11% systemwide use reduction. The Mercury News (San Jose, Calif.), June 30, 2022

Fires in northern New Mexico burned thousands of acres at higher elevations that usually support grazing cattle during the summer. In Mora County, the Hermits Peak Calf Canyon Fire forced ranchers to graze their cattle on low-country lands where the ranchers would normally grow hay and alfalfa to feed their livestock in the winter. This arrangement leaves ranchers without feed for winter. The ranchers are frustrated and insist that the federal government should help with remedying the situation. Santa Fe New Mexican (N.M.), June 27, 2022

The Alaska State Fire Marshal’s Office suspended the use of personal fireworks across a large part of the state on June 30, a move that was supported by the Alaska Division of Forestry and Fire Protection. The suspension covers the Kenai Peninsula Borough, Matanuska-Susitna Borough, Denali Borough, Fairbanks North Star Borough, Copper River Basin Area and the areas of Delta Junction, Tok and the upper Tanana Valley and will remain in effect until further notice. Fireworks displays planned by municipalities or local jurisdictions are allowed with the proper permits. As of June 30, there were 159 wildfires burning in Alaska, 19 of which are staffed, according to the Alaska Interagency Coordination Center. Anchorage Daily News (Alaska), June 30, 2022

More than 1.7 million acres burned in Alaska as of June 30, according to the National Interagency Fire Center and the Alaska Interagency Coordination Center Wildland Fire Dashboard. Limited snow over the winter allowed early snowmelt and dry vegetation, which advanced the start of the wildfire season. CNN (Atlanta, Ga.), June 30, 2022 A new wildfire record was set for Alaska when the number of acres burned reached the one million mark on June 15, the earliest in decades. Anchorage Daily News (Alaska), June 30, 2022

The June monsoon moisture has been very welcome, but more is still needed, say local fire officials. Sandoval County Fire, Bernalillo and Corrales extended their fireworks restrictions through late July. Rio Rancho’s burn ban is scheduled to expire on July 15, but Rio Rancho Fire and Rescue has not ruled out extending the ban. The Bernalillo fire chief noted that he was still worried about the dry fuels in combination with the heat heightening the fire risk. Rio Rancho Observer (N.M.), June 30, 2022

Stage 2 water restrictions began in Georgetown on June 28 because continued high water use was nearing system treatment capacity. During the past two weeks, water production from the city’s water treatment plants has exceeded 90% of capacity on multiple days, triggering the need to move to Stage 2 of the Drought Plan. Outdoor watering will be permitted once per week. FOX 7 Austin (Texas), June 30, 2022

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING...SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing damaging gusts and hail will be possible across northeast Wyoming, southwest South Dakota and northwest Nebraska on Friday. Additional isolated strong thunderstorms are possible across the central High Plains, the Mid-Mississippi Valley vicinity, and upper Ohio Valley to central New York. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will pivot eastward over the Great Lakes and Northeast while an upper ridge persists over the central/northern Rockies vicinity. Stronger mid/upper westerlies will remain confined to the Great Lakes vicinity around the upper trough. However, a midlevel shortwave impulse is forecast to eject from WY/CO toward the central Plains, resulting in some moderate midlevel northwesterly flow across the northern/central High Plains vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will progress east/southeast across portions of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Western portions of this boundary across KS will stall as it intersects weak lee troughing near the KS/CO border. The surface cold front and lee trough will both focus thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening, and some severe risk is possible from the High Plains into the Mid-MS Valley northeast toward the lower Great Lakes. ...Northern/Central Plains Vicinity... Deep layer flow will remain relatively weak across the region, however, vertically veering profiles will contribute to effective shear magnitudes around 30-40 kt (higher across WY/SD). Southeasterly low-level flow will transport mid 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints westward along the lee trough from eastern WY/CO into western SD/NE/KS. While modest boundary-layer moisture will limit stronger destabilization, MLCAPE values around 1000-2000 J/kg amid sufficient shear should support organized cells/clusters. Very steep low-level lapse rates with inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles suggest strong gusts will be the primary hazard. Closer to the midlevel shortwave impulse and somewhat stronger mid/upper flow across eastern WY into southwest SD and northwest NE, potential exists for organized clusters capable of damaging gusts by late afternoon/evening. Some hail may also accompany stronger cells. ...Eastern KS to IN... A seasonally moist and strongly unstable airmass will reside ahead of the southward-sagging surface front. In the absence of stronger large-scale ascent, modest low-level convergence should be sufficient for thunderstorm development by afternoon. Vertically veering wind profiles on the southern fringes of stronger mid/upper level westerlies will provide adequate shear for widely scattered loosely-organized convection. Midlevel lapse rates will remain modest, but strong heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, and sporadic strong gusts and possibly some hail will be possible into early evening. ...Upper Ohio Valley into south-central NY... The surface cold front will remain north of the international border for much of the day. However,southwesterly low-level flow will transport low/mid 60s F surface dewpoints northward, aiding in a corridor of moderate destabilization beneath strengthening midlevel flow (35-45 kt around 700-500 mb). Thunderstorm clusters producing sporadic strong gusts and marginal hail will be possible into the evening hours. ..Leitman.. 06/30/2022 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Jun 30 17:12:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jun 30 17:12:01 UTC 2022.

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022 Valid 301700Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains valid with no changes. Locally elevated conditions may occur in terrain favoring areas in the lee of the Sierra this afternoon. Wind gusts may occasionally reach 15 mph within the dry airmass. However, coverage is not expected to be widespread. See the prior discussion for more details. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022/ ...Synopsis... Mainly zonal mid-level flow is expected across the northern CONUS as upper ridging prevails across the central and southern U.S. today. While mostly quiescent fire weather conditions are expected across much of the CONUS, localized fire-spread concerns exist across the Interior West. First, Elevated dry and windy conditions may occur in terrain-favoring areas of the Great Basin, especially in southern Nevada during the afternoon. Mid-level monsoonal moisture will continue to meander over the Great Basin into the central Rockies as in past several days, promoting isolated to potentially scattered thunderstorm development by afternoon peak heating. While storms should mostly be wet, a couple of dry strikes are possible, and it is not out of the question to get a lightning-induced ignition in any patchy areas of modestly to critically dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NORTHERN IOWA INTO UPPER MICHIGAN.... CORRECTED FOR MISSSPELLING IN SUMMARY ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are possible today from parts of Kansas to Upper Michigan. ...Upper MI/WI/MN/IA... Morning surface analysis shows a weak cold front extending from central MN into northwest KS. A moderately moist and potentially unstable air mass is present ahead of the front, although several areas of clouds are limiting heating. Most CAM solutions indicate scattered thunderstorms will form along/ahead of the front over northern WI/Upper MI by mid-afternoon, in an environment of steep lapse rates and strong westerly flow aloft. A few of these cells will likely become intense, with a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail for a few hours. There is considerable uncertainty how far southwest the risk of strong storms will extend into MN/IA due to weakening large scale forcing and weaker shear profiles. Nevertheless, will maintain ongoing SLGT area. ...CO/KS/NE... Ample mid-level moisture is present today over CO, along the southern fringe of stronger westerly flow aloft. Strong heating across the plains of eastern CO into western KS/NE will lead to hot surface temperatures and inverted-v thermodynamic profiles. Scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms are expected to affect this region later today. Present indications are that meager boundary-layer moisture will limit the intensity of updrafts or precipitation cores, but dry-microbursts capable of isolated damaging wind gusts will be a potential risk. ..Hart.. 06/30/2022 Read more