Aggregator

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for today across the country, though localized concerns may emerge across southeast WY and across the central Plains. Early-morning surface observations show a lee trough in place along the High Plains with southerly return flow ongoing through the southern to central Plains. This trough will migrate east into the central Plains through the day, maintain 15-25 mph southerly winds from KS into southwest MN. Although warm and breezy conditions are expected, returning moisture should limit RH reductions this afternoon. Ensemble guidance supports this idea with low probabilities for RH below 20%, even with a notable dry bias in some guidance (such as the HRRR/RAP). However, patchy areas of elevated conditions are possible across the Plains where RH can fall below 25%. Across southeast WY, 15-25 mph westerly downslope flow is expected during the morning to early afternoon hours, slowly abating through the mid/late afternoon as the surface trough exits the region. This timing of peak winds should be offset from the diurnal RH minimum, but a few hours of elevated conditions are possible around midday. The potentially limited duration of this threat precludes highlights, but trends will be monitored through the morning for lower than expected RH within the downslope flow regime. ..Moore.. 11/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for today across the country, though localized concerns may emerge across southeast WY and across the central Plains. Early-morning surface observations show a lee trough in place along the High Plains with southerly return flow ongoing through the southern to central Plains. This trough will migrate east into the central Plains through the day, maintain 15-25 mph southerly winds from KS into southwest MN. Although warm and breezy conditions are expected, returning moisture should limit RH reductions this afternoon. Ensemble guidance supports this idea with low probabilities for RH below 20%, even with a notable dry bias in some guidance (such as the HRRR/RAP). However, patchy areas of elevated conditions are possible across the Plains where RH can fall below 25%. Across southeast WY, 15-25 mph westerly downslope flow is expected during the morning to early afternoon hours, slowly abating through the mid/late afternoon as the surface trough exits the region. This timing of peak winds should be offset from the diurnal RH minimum, but a few hours of elevated conditions are possible around midday. The potentially limited duration of this threat precludes highlights, but trends will be monitored through the morning for lower than expected RH within the downslope flow regime. ..Moore.. 11/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday into Wednesday night from the central Gulf Coast States to the Florida Peninsula. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will move through the north-central Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at 12Z on Wednesday across much of the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico. The northern extent of thunderstorm development is forecast across southern Mississippi and southern Alabama, near a zone of large-scale ascent associated with the trough. As the trough moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday evening, thunderstorm chances will increase across the Florida Peninsula. The greatest chance for thunderstorms Wednesday night will likely be just ahead of the trough across the southern Florida Peninsula. Instability associated with the trough is expected to remain weak over the land areas Wednesday and Wednesday night, making conditions unfavorable for a severe threat. ..Broyles.. 11/14/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday into Wednesday night from the central Gulf Coast States to the Florida Peninsula. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will move through the north-central Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at 12Z on Wednesday across much of the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico. The northern extent of thunderstorm development is forecast across southern Mississippi and southern Alabama, near a zone of large-scale ascent associated with the trough. As the trough moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday evening, thunderstorm chances will increase across the Florida Peninsula. The greatest chance for thunderstorms Wednesday night will likely be just ahead of the trough across the southern Florida Peninsula. Instability associated with the trough is expected to remain weak over the land areas Wednesday and Wednesday night, making conditions unfavorable for a severe threat. ..Broyles.. 11/14/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday into Wednesday night from the central Gulf Coast States to the Florida Peninsula. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will move through the north-central Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at 12Z on Wednesday across much of the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico. The northern extent of thunderstorm development is forecast across southern Mississippi and southern Alabama, near a zone of large-scale ascent associated with the trough. As the trough moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday evening, thunderstorm chances will increase across the Florida Peninsula. The greatest chance for thunderstorms Wednesday night will likely be just ahead of the trough across the southern Florida Peninsula. Instability associated with the trough is expected to remain weak over the land areas Wednesday and Wednesday night, making conditions unfavorable for a severe threat. ..Broyles.. 11/14/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday into Wednesday night from the central Gulf Coast States to the Florida Peninsula. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will move through the north-central Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at 12Z on Wednesday across much of the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico. The northern extent of thunderstorm development is forecast across southern Mississippi and southern Alabama, near a zone of large-scale ascent associated with the trough. As the trough moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday evening, thunderstorm chances will increase across the Florida Peninsula. The greatest chance for thunderstorms Wednesday night will likely be just ahead of the trough across the southern Florida Peninsula. Instability associated with the trough is expected to remain weak over the land areas Wednesday and Wednesday night, making conditions unfavorable for a severe threat. ..Broyles.. 11/14/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday into Wednesday night from the central Gulf Coast States to the Florida Peninsula. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will move through the north-central Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at 12Z on Wednesday across much of the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico. The northern extent of thunderstorm development is forecast across southern Mississippi and southern Alabama, near a zone of large-scale ascent associated with the trough. As the trough moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday evening, thunderstorm chances will increase across the Florida Peninsula. The greatest chance for thunderstorms Wednesday night will likely be just ahead of the trough across the southern Florida Peninsula. Instability associated with the trough is expected to remain weak over the land areas Wednesday and Wednesday night, making conditions unfavorable for a severe threat. ..Broyles.. 11/14/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Some thunder potential will exist along the central Gulf Coast and across south Florida. ...Central Gulf Coast/South Florida... Short-wave trough currently located over TX will dig southeast into the lower MS Valley/northern Gulf region by 15/00z, then deepen a bit during the overnight hours as it advances slowly toward the eastern Gulf Basin. In response to this feature, a notable surface low will strengthen/deepen over the central Gulf which will maintain offshore flow along the central Gulf Coast, and deep easterly flow across the FL Peninsula. A strong baroclinic zone will evolve across this region and a considerable amount of convection should develop over the Gulf of Mexico where significant buoyancy/shear will be in place for organized convection. However, weak instability will preclude strong convection inland, both along the central Gulf Coast and south FL. Diurnal heating may contribute to deeper updrafts capable of generating lightning across south FL; otherwise, any thunderstorms across southeast LA into the western FL Panhandle should be more elevated in nature as warm advection dominates this region. ..Darrow/Moore.. 11/14/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Some thunder potential will exist along the central Gulf Coast and across south Florida. ...Central Gulf Coast/South Florida... Short-wave trough currently located over TX will dig southeast into the lower MS Valley/northern Gulf region by 15/00z, then deepen a bit during the overnight hours as it advances slowly toward the eastern Gulf Basin. In response to this feature, a notable surface low will strengthen/deepen over the central Gulf which will maintain offshore flow along the central Gulf Coast, and deep easterly flow across the FL Peninsula. A strong baroclinic zone will evolve across this region and a considerable amount of convection should develop over the Gulf of Mexico where significant buoyancy/shear will be in place for organized convection. However, weak instability will preclude strong convection inland, both along the central Gulf Coast and south FL. Diurnal heating may contribute to deeper updrafts capable of generating lightning across south FL; otherwise, any thunderstorms across southeast LA into the western FL Panhandle should be more elevated in nature as warm advection dominates this region. ..Darrow/Moore.. 11/14/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Some thunder potential will exist along the central Gulf Coast and across south Florida. ...Central Gulf Coast/South Florida... Short-wave trough currently located over TX will dig southeast into the lower MS Valley/northern Gulf region by 15/00z, then deepen a bit during the overnight hours as it advances slowly toward the eastern Gulf Basin. In response to this feature, a notable surface low will strengthen/deepen over the central Gulf which will maintain offshore flow along the central Gulf Coast, and deep easterly flow across the FL Peninsula. A strong baroclinic zone will evolve across this region and a considerable amount of convection should develop over the Gulf of Mexico where significant buoyancy/shear will be in place for organized convection. However, weak instability will preclude strong convection inland, both along the central Gulf Coast and south FL. Diurnal heating may contribute to deeper updrafts capable of generating lightning across south FL; otherwise, any thunderstorms across southeast LA into the western FL Panhandle should be more elevated in nature as warm advection dominates this region. ..Darrow/Moore.. 11/14/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Some thunder potential will exist along the central Gulf Coast and across south Florida. ...Central Gulf Coast/South Florida... Short-wave trough currently located over TX will dig southeast into the lower MS Valley/northern Gulf region by 15/00z, then deepen a bit during the overnight hours as it advances slowly toward the eastern Gulf Basin. In response to this feature, a notable surface low will strengthen/deepen over the central Gulf which will maintain offshore flow along the central Gulf Coast, and deep easterly flow across the FL Peninsula. A strong baroclinic zone will evolve across this region and a considerable amount of convection should develop over the Gulf of Mexico where significant buoyancy/shear will be in place for organized convection. However, weak instability will preclude strong convection inland, both along the central Gulf Coast and south FL. Diurnal heating may contribute to deeper updrafts capable of generating lightning across south FL; otherwise, any thunderstorms across southeast LA into the western FL Panhandle should be more elevated in nature as warm advection dominates this region. ..Darrow/Moore.. 11/14/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Some thunder potential will exist along the central Gulf Coast and across south Florida. ...Central Gulf Coast/South Florida... Short-wave trough currently located over TX will dig southeast into the lower MS Valley/northern Gulf region by 15/00z, then deepen a bit during the overnight hours as it advances slowly toward the eastern Gulf Basin. In response to this feature, a notable surface low will strengthen/deepen over the central Gulf which will maintain offshore flow along the central Gulf Coast, and deep easterly flow across the FL Peninsula. A strong baroclinic zone will evolve across this region and a considerable amount of convection should develop over the Gulf of Mexico where significant buoyancy/shear will be in place for organized convection. However, weak instability will preclude strong convection inland, both along the central Gulf Coast and south FL. Diurnal heating may contribute to deeper updrafts capable of generating lightning across south FL; otherwise, any thunderstorms across southeast LA into the western FL Panhandle should be more elevated in nature as warm advection dominates this region. ..Darrow/Moore.. 11/14/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0627 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible along a small part of the Florida Atlantic Coast, and in the lee of Lake Ontario. ...01z Update... Weak short-wave trough is advancing toward the central Gulf Basin early this evening. This low-latitude feature will approach the FL Gulf Coast toward sunrise but will also gradually weaken as it translates east. While the primary surface low will lag considerably over the northwest Gulf, deep easterly flow into the FL Peninsula continues to favor scattered showers. Moist profiles and weak buoyancy may prove adequate for a few deeper updrafts capable of generating a few flashes of lightning later tonight. Even so, this activity should remain quite sparse. Scattered lake-enhanced convection is producing lightning as it approaches the southeast coast of Lake Ontario between Oswego and Sodus Point NY. While a few flashes of lightning may advance 50-60 mi downstream of the lake, the primary concentration of lightning should hold over/near the warmer waters. ..Darrow.. 11/14/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0627 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible along a small part of the Florida Atlantic Coast, and in the lee of Lake Ontario. ...01z Update... Weak short-wave trough is advancing toward the central Gulf Basin early this evening. This low-latitude feature will approach the FL Gulf Coast toward sunrise but will also gradually weaken as it translates east. While the primary surface low will lag considerably over the northwest Gulf, deep easterly flow into the FL Peninsula continues to favor scattered showers. Moist profiles and weak buoyancy may prove adequate for a few deeper updrafts capable of generating a few flashes of lightning later tonight. Even so, this activity should remain quite sparse. Scattered lake-enhanced convection is producing lightning as it approaches the southeast coast of Lake Ontario between Oswego and Sodus Point NY. While a few flashes of lightning may advance 50-60 mi downstream of the lake, the primary concentration of lightning should hold over/near the warmer waters. ..Darrow.. 11/14/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0627 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible along a small part of the Florida Atlantic Coast, and in the lee of Lake Ontario. ...01z Update... Weak short-wave trough is advancing toward the central Gulf Basin early this evening. This low-latitude feature will approach the FL Gulf Coast toward sunrise but will also gradually weaken as it translates east. While the primary surface low will lag considerably over the northwest Gulf, deep easterly flow into the FL Peninsula continues to favor scattered showers. Moist profiles and weak buoyancy may prove adequate for a few deeper updrafts capable of generating a few flashes of lightning later tonight. Even so, this activity should remain quite sparse. Scattered lake-enhanced convection is producing lightning as it approaches the southeast coast of Lake Ontario between Oswego and Sodus Point NY. While a few flashes of lightning may advance 50-60 mi downstream of the lake, the primary concentration of lightning should hold over/near the warmer waters. ..Darrow.. 11/14/2023 Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Nov 13 22:04:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Nov 13 22:04:02 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Fire weather concerns remain low through the extended period. An upper-level ridge across the Intermountain West will shift eastward across the central US by D3 - Wednesday as a trough deepens within the Pacific. This pattern will bring primarily light winds and warming conditions across much of the central US, along with cooler conditions and precipitation chances in the Western US D3 - Wednesday through D6 - Saturday. Westerly flow across the Rockies will allow lee troughing to develop across the High Plains with periods of locally breezy/dry conditions D3 - Wednesday and D4 - Thursday. However, minimal overlap of the strongest winds and low RH limits confidence in the development of any more than elevated fire-weather conditions. Late next week, the central US ridge will lose amplitude as a wave shifts by to the north. The Pacific trough will slowly eject into the Desert Southwest, with increasing southwest winds accompanied by cool and wet conditions. This will keep fire concerns low across the Southwest despite the increase in wind speeds. Surface low development across the central/southern Plains late in the period may bring some increase in fire weather concerns but also potential for wetting rainfall. ..Thornton.. 11/13/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Fire weather concerns remain low through the extended period. An upper-level ridge across the Intermountain West will shift eastward across the central US by D3 - Wednesday as a trough deepens within the Pacific. This pattern will bring primarily light winds and warming conditions across much of the central US, along with cooler conditions and precipitation chances in the Western US D3 - Wednesday through D6 - Saturday. Westerly flow across the Rockies will allow lee troughing to develop across the High Plains with periods of locally breezy/dry conditions D3 - Wednesday and D4 - Thursday. However, minimal overlap of the strongest winds and low RH limits confidence in the development of any more than elevated fire-weather conditions. Late next week, the central US ridge will lose amplitude as a wave shifts by to the north. The Pacific trough will slowly eject into the Desert Southwest, with increasing southwest winds accompanied by cool and wet conditions. This will keep fire concerns low across the Southwest despite the increase in wind speeds. Surface low development across the central/southern Plains late in the period may bring some increase in fire weather concerns but also potential for wetting rainfall. ..Thornton.. 11/13/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2023 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Fire weather concerns remain low through the extended period. An upper-level ridge across the Intermountain West will shift eastward across the central US by D3 - Wednesday as a trough deepens within the Pacific. This pattern will bring primarily light winds and warming conditions across much of the central US, along with cooler conditions and precipitation chances in the Western US D3 - Wednesday through D6 - Saturday. Westerly flow across the Rockies will allow lee troughing to develop across the High Plains with periods of locally breezy/dry conditions D3 - Wednesday and D4 - Thursday. However, minimal overlap of the strongest winds and low RH limits confidence in the development of any more than elevated fire-weather conditions. Late next week, the central US ridge will lose amplitude as a wave shifts by to the north. The Pacific trough will slowly eject into the Desert Southwest, with increasing southwest winds accompanied by cool and wet conditions. This will keep fire concerns low across the Southwest despite the increase in wind speeds. Surface low development across the central/southern Plains late in the period may bring some increase in fire weather concerns but also potential for wetting rainfall. ..Thornton.. 11/13/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more