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Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUN 23 2022 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 231437 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 1500 UTC THU JUN 23 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 105W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 1 4( 5) 10(15) 5(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) 20N 110W 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 10(20) 7(27) 1(28) X(28) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 4( 4) 18(22) 32(54) 16(70) 1(71) X(71) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 14(29) X(29) X(29) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 35(40) 12(52) X(52) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 8(19) X(19) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) 22(54) 1(55) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) X(21) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 12(23) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 231437 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 900 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022 Celia is a bit of a conundrum. The strong east-northeasterly shear which was affecting the system over the past couple of days has lessened and turned out of the north, but the cyclone may have ingested so much dry air during that time that it's now struggling to produce much convection near its center. That said, new convection has recently been developing just to the east of the center. The initial intensity is being generously held at 45 kt, at the upper end of the estimate range, in the hopes that we'll get some scatterometer data later today. The storm's 12-hour motion is northwestward, or 315/11 kt, but there are signs it may be turning back to the west-northwest. There are no changes in the forecast track reasoning, with mid-level high pressure over northern Mexico still expected to drive Celia west-northwestward for the next 4 days or so. A westward turn is expected by day 5 as a weaker Celia is steered by lower-level winds. The biggest change this morning is that there is much tighter spread among the guidance, with the HWRF no longer a southern outlier as in previous days. Confidence in the track forecast is therefore higher than it had been. The big question for intensity is whether the dry air near the core can be mixed out and allow deep convection to organize near the center. The environment appears conducive for that to happen, with shear expected to be generally low and SSTs to be 26 degrees or higher for the next 2 days or so. The peak intensity in the NHC forecast has been lowered slightly due to time over warm waters being a limiting factor, but Celia still has the potential to become a hurricane during the next couple of days. Much colder waters and a more stable atmosphere should cause Celia to become post-tropical by day 5. The initial 12-foot seas radii have been adjusted and expanded significantly over Celia's eastern semicircle by TAFB based on data from a 0730 UTC Cryosat-2 pass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 16.0N 106.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 16.6N 107.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 17.0N 108.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 17.3N 109.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 17.8N 110.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 26/0000Z 18.5N 112.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 19.1N 113.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 20.5N 117.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 21.4N 122.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Berg

...CELIA HAS ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS... As of 9:00 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 the center of Celia was located near 16.0, -106.0 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 231437 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Celia Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 900 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022 ...CELIA HAS ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 106.0W ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM ESE OF SOCORRO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Celia was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 106.0 West. Celia is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today, accompanied by a decrease in forward speed on Friday and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Celia could still become a hurricane by the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells are affecting portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the southern Baja California peninsula and the coast of west-central Mexico on Friday and Saturday. These conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

...CELIA HAS ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS... As of 9:00 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 the center of Celia was located near 16.0, -106.0 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUN 23 2022 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 231436 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 1500 UTC THU JUN 23 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 106.0W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 106.0W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 105.6W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.6N 107.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.0N 108.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.3N 109.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...160NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.8N 110.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 110SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.5N 112.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 120SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.1N 113.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 90SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 20.5N 117.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 21.4N 122.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 106.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central Great Plains this afternoon and evening. Large hail and severe gusts will be the primary threats with the stronger storms. ...Northern KS/southern NE this afternoon through tonight... Weak perturbations emanating from the monsoonal moisture plume will drift eastward across the central Plains, around the northern periphery of the southern Plains closed high aloft. At the surface, a warm front will move slowly northward across KS, to the east of a lee cyclone near the CO/KS border by this evening. A corridor of 68-70 F boundary-layer dewpoints will be maintained in the vicinity of the warm front across KS/NE, with strong surface heating and deep mixing expected to the southwest of the warm front across western KS. The net result should be relatively weak convective inhibition and the potential for surface-based thunderstorm development late this afternoon/evening along the warm front close to the KS/NE border, with the potential for elevated storm development persisting overnight on the nose of a 30+ kt low-level jet. There is some uncertainty regarding the role/persistence of morning clouds/convection in late afternoon storm development, though there should be at least some clearing along the northwest KS/southwest NE border, where storm development is more probable by 22-00z. Midlevel flow will not be strong (though 50 kt flow is expected above the 300 mb level), so low-midlevel hodograph length will depend on the degree of low-level easterly low-level flow component in the warm advection zone along and north of the warm front. A few supercells will be possible with large hail and damaging gusts, and the tornado threat will depend on getting storms into the areas of backed low-level flow and richer low-level moisture. Otherwise, storms may coalesce into clusters overnight, with a continuing threat for isolated hail/wind. ...Northeast SD into MN this evening into tonight... A weak surface trough, associated with a shortwave trough over western ON, will move southeastward into northeast SD and central/northern MN by late afternoon. An increase in low-level moisture from the south during the day, combined with daytime heating and convergence along the trough, could support widely scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon/evening along the surface trough. The specific degree of low-level moistening and resultant increases in CAPE are a bit uncertain (some model guidance appears to be a bit high with the 68+ dewpoints by evening), and storm coverage is in question given the moisture and weak forcing for ascent. Wind profiles appear to be on the lower margins for organized/supercell storms. Given these factors, will maintain Marginal risk for the conditional threat. ...Central MT this afternoon/evening... A midlevel level closed low over southern BC will move eastward, with the primary midlevel jet crossing northern MT through tonight. The midlevel low will be accompanied by a surface cold front, which will provide a focus for thunderstorm development across central MT this afternoon/evening. Low-level moisture will remain limited across MT (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 40s with daytime heating/mixing), which will likewise limit buoyancy. Still, inverted-v profiles and some increase in midlevel flow will support the threat for isolated strong-severe outflow gusts from late afternoon into this evening. ...Eastern NV/western UT this afternoon/evening... A weak closed low over central CA will evolve into an open wave and eject east-northeastward over NV/UT through tonight. Weak ascent downstream from the midlevel trough, combined with daytime heating/mixing, will result in weak buoyancy and inverted-v profiles favorable for high-based thunderstorm development. A modest increase in midlevel flow and the steep low-level lapse rates/DCAPE greater than 1000 J/kg will support the threat for isolated severe outflow gusts. ..Thompson/Jewell.. 06/23/2022 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central Great Plains this afternoon and evening. Large hail and severe gusts will be the primary threats with the stronger storms. ...Northern KS/southern NE this afternoon through tonight... Weak perturbations emanating from the monsoonal moisture plume will drift eastward across the central Plains, around the northern periphery of the southern Plains closed high aloft. At the surface, a warm front will move slowly northward across KS, to the east of a lee cyclone near the CO/KS border by this evening. A corridor of 68-70 F boundary-layer dewpoints will be maintained in the vicinity of the warm front across KS/NE, with strong surface heating and deep mixing expected to the southwest of the warm front across western KS. The net result should be relatively weak convective inhibition and the potential for surface-based thunderstorm development late this afternoon/evening along the warm front close to the KS/NE border, with the potential for elevated storm development persisting overnight on the nose of a 30+ kt low-level jet. There is some uncertainty regarding the role/persistence of morning clouds/convection in late afternoon storm development, though there should be at least some clearing along the northwest KS/southwest NE border, where storm development is more probable by 22-00z. Midlevel flow will not be strong (though 50 kt flow is expected above the 300 mb level), so low-midlevel hodograph length will depend on the degree of low-level easterly low-level flow component in the warm advection zone along and north of the warm front. A few supercells will be possible with large hail and damaging gusts, and the tornado threat will depend on getting storms into the areas of backed low-level flow and richer low-level moisture. Otherwise, storms may coalesce into clusters overnight, with a continuing threat for isolated hail/wind. ...Northeast SD into MN this evening into tonight... A weak surface trough, associated with a shortwave trough over western ON, will move southeastward into northeast SD and central/northern MN by late afternoon. An increase in low-level moisture from the south during the day, combined with daytime heating and convergence along the trough, could support widely scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon/evening along the surface trough. The specific degree of low-level moistening and resultant increases in CAPE are a bit uncertain (some model guidance appears to be a bit high with the 68+ dewpoints by evening), and storm coverage is in question given the moisture and weak forcing for ascent. Wind profiles appear to be on the lower margins for organized/supercell storms. Given these factors, will maintain Marginal risk for the conditional threat. ...Central MT this afternoon/evening... A midlevel level closed low over southern BC will move eastward, with the primary midlevel jet crossing northern MT through tonight. The midlevel low will be accompanied by a surface cold front, which will provide a focus for thunderstorm development across central MT this afternoon/evening. Low-level moisture will remain limited across MT (boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 40s with daytime heating/mixing), which will likewise limit buoyancy. Still, inverted-v profiles and some increase in midlevel flow will support the threat for isolated strong-severe outflow gusts from late afternoon into this evening. ...Eastern NV/western UT this afternoon/evening... A weak closed low over central CA will evolve into an open wave and eject east-northeastward over NV/UT through tonight. Weak ascent downstream from the midlevel trough, combined with daytime heating/mixing, will result in weak buoyancy and inverted-v profiles favorable for high-based thunderstorm development. A modest increase in midlevel flow and the steep low-level lapse rates/DCAPE greater than 1000 J/kg will support the threat for isolated severe outflow gusts. ..Thompson/Jewell.. 06/23/2022 Read more

049
ABPZ20 KNHC 231124
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Jun 23 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Celia, located a few hundred miles southwest of the coast of
southwestern Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg

049
ABPZ20 KNHC 231124
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Jun 23 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Celia, located a few hundred miles southwest of the coast of
southwestern Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Houston residents were asked to conserve water as of June 21 due to moderate to severe drought in the region. KHOU (Houston, Texas), June 22, 2022

 The Contact Creek Fire (#151), burning 40 miles southeast of King Salmon, started on May 29, 2022. The fire continues to be monitored by National Park Service and Division of Forestry personnel as it burns in a limited management area in Katmai National Park & Preserve. The fire is burning 17 miles from the nearest native allotment. Crews wrapped a Remote Automated Weather System (RAWS) in protective structure wrap to reduce the impacts of the fire if it should it reach the weather system.Gathered from aerial observations on June 3rd, roughly 70% of the fire perimeter is inactive with creeks 6-10 feet wide halting growth of the fire. The entire north and northeast sections of the fire perimeter look to be held up by creeks of this size, and areas in the perimeter still burning are expected to hit streams of similar size within the next few

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1057 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z The forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on trends in latest hi-res convective models. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across southern CA. MRMS rainfall estimates show that much of this activity is producing wetting rainfall, though a few cells are producing little precipitation. This mixture of wet and dry storms is expected to continue through the day and into the evening hours. Despite the areas of wetting rainfall, regional GACCs have reported a few new fire starts from recent lightning given the dry fuel status. Strong downburst winds are possible given the dry low-level air sampled in morning soundings (see the Day 1 Convective Outlook for additional details on the severe wind potential). Across UT, observed trends continue to point towards thunderstorm development by mid/late afternoon across the Greater Four Corners region. The dry thunderstorm risk area is expanded to accommodate locations where the potential for thunderstorms has increased and ERC values are above seasonal average. ..Moore.. 06/22/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging centered within the Plains will retrograde westward during the day today. A weak cut-off low, currently off the southern California coast on water vapor imagery, will remain quasi-stationary before being pushed northeastward by the retrograding ridge late in the period. Fire weather concerns will be focused within southern California and within a small portion of the southern Great Basin. Both areas will see potential for a few dry thunderstorms as moisture continues to work its way westward around the ridge. Parts of southern Utah into far northwest Arizona will likely have lower PWAT values and see more traditional dry thunderstorms. Within southern California, current GPS PWAT retrievals show values over 1 inch nudging into the southern border. Forecast soundings tomorrow indicate that PWAT values will likely be near or exceed 1 inch over much of the area. Furthermore, storm coverage could approach scattered categorical designation given the influence of the cut-off low. Low-levels will be quite dry. Dewpoint depressions of 40-50 F are depicted in forecast soundings tomorrow afternoon. Even with fairly high PWAT values, a mix of wet and isolated dry storms is likely given the low-level moisture profile. Area fuels are generally at or slightly below seasonal dryness and will support ignition. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Jun 22 16:00:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jun 22 16:00:02 UTC 2022.

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022 441 WTPZ43 KNHC 221433 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022 Strong east-northeasterly shear has not yet abated, and Celia's center remains offset just to the northeast of the main area of deep convection. However, low-cloud lines with embedded convective cells have become more evident in microwave imagery, suggesting that the circulation has become a little more robust. Celia's estimated intensity remains 40 kt, with subjective and objective analyses ranging between 35 and 45 kt. Stronger-than-normal ridging over the south-central United States and northern Mexico continues to steer Celia toward the west-northwest, with a slightly slower motion of 295/10 kt. Even with this stable steering configuration, the track model spread is larger than normal during the first couple of days of the forecast, mainly because the HWRF remains a southern outlier and the GFS is slower than the main pack of models. Model spread is near or lower than normal on days 3 through 5. The updated NHC track forecast is a bit to the right and slower than the previous forecast and the model consensus aids, hedging toward the GFS and ECMWF on the right side of the guidance envelope. All in all, Celia should maintain a general west-northwestward heading through Monday. Model diagnoses indicate that the current magnitude of deep-layer shear should continue for another 6 to 12 hours and then drop to 10 kt or less by 24 hours. With an already-established low-level circulation and SSTs of about 28 degrees Celsius, the lower shear should allow Celia to intensify and reach hurricane strength in a couple of days. That opportunity will be relatively short lived, however, since the cyclone is likely to reach sub-26C waters in about 60 hours. After that time, gradual weakening is anticipated. The NHC intensity is unchanged from the previous forecast and is slightly above the intensity consensus aids during the middle part of the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 13.7N 103.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 14.3N 104.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 15.4N 106.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 16.1N 107.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 16.6N 108.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 25/0000Z 17.2N 110.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 17.9N 111.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 19.3N 114.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 20.2N 118.1W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUN 22 2022 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 221433 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 1500 UTC WED JUN 22 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 105W 34 3 47(50) 2(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) 15N 105W 50 X 15(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) 15N 105W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 21(25) 14(39) 1(40) X(40) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 17(21) 5(26) X(26) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 44(51) 10(61) X(61) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 5(25) X(25) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 33(41) 7(48) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 4(16) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 30(34) 12(46) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 221433 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Celia Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022 ...CELIA CRUISING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 103.7W ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Celia was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 103.7 West. Celia is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A general west-northwestward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Celia is expected to become a hurricane by Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells will increase along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico today and spread northward along the coast through Thursday. Swells could also reach southern portions of the Baja California peninsula by Friday. These conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

...CELIA CRUISING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 10:00 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 the center of Celia was located near 13.7, -103.7 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.