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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTHWESTERN MN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with gusts up to 75 mph, very large hail up to 3 inches in diameter, and a couple of tornadoes are expected from the eastern Dakotas into northwestern Minnesota this afternoon into tonight. ...Northern Plains and vicinity this afternoon into tonight... A corridor of low 70s dewpoints persists this morning from southeast ND into central SD, to the east of a stalled front. Cyclogenesis is expected today along the stalled front, as an upstream shortwave trough moves eastward over MT, and a separate shortwave trough ejects northeastward from UT/WY. The front will begin to move eastward later this evening into tonight in response to the approaching midlevel troughs, with scattered-numerous thunderstorms expected along and ahead of the front across the central/eastern Dakotas into northwest MN. Surface heating within the moist, pre-frontal air mass, beneath very steep midlevel lapse rates near 9 C/km, will result in MLCAPE of 3500-4500 J/kg. Convective inhibition will likewise weaken by mid afternoon, when thunderstorm development becomes likely. The stronger mid-upper flow will tend to lag west of the cold front, but should be sufficient for supercells close to the boundary. The large CAPE/steep lapse rate environment will support isolated very large hail up to 3 inches in diameter and a couple of tornadoes with the supercells, but there will likely be a tendency for fairly quick upscale growth into clusters/line segments. Large CAPE will favor precipitation loaded downdrafts and large DCAPE will favor intense downdrafts, with the potential for swaths of damaging winds with occasional significant (75 mph) severe outflow gusts late this afternoon into early tonight as storms spread eastward from the Dakotas into MN. Other clusters of more high-based storms are expected to form farther southwest across the central Rockies, and some of this convection will move into the High Plains this evening in association with the ejecting UT/WY shortwave trough. These storms could be maintained long enough to reach the richer moisture/larger CAPE in the vicinity of the stalled front, where large hail will become more of a threat. ...Western GA into FL this afternoon... A surface trough from western GA into north FL, along with daytime heating and local sea breeze circulations, will help focus thunderstorm development by early-mid afternoon. Strong surface heating/mixing with hot afternoon temperatures, as well boundary-layer dewpoints of 70-76 F, will support MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg this afternoon along the surface trough. The strong surface heating will also drive steep low-level lapse rates, and DCAPE at or above 1000 J/kg will favor occasional damaging gusts with downbursts in south-southwest moving clusters of storms this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Jewell.. 06/24/2022 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241137
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jun 24 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Celia, located a few hundred miles southwest of the coast of
southwestern Mexico.

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form well offshore of
southern Mexico early next week. Environmental conditions could
support some slow development of this system thereafter as it moves
generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Caution is urged with fireworks in northeastern Nebraska, due to the dry conditions, recommended Columbus fire captain. Columbus Telegram (Neb.), June 23, 2022

Elwood canceled its Fourth of July fireworks show due to exceptionally dry conditions. The July 3rd fireworks show at Johnson Lake has been postponed until the weather and conditions improve. KSNB Local 4 (Hastings, Neb.), June 23, 2022

Low rainfall has caused weed problems to develop in some fields in Vigo and Parke counties because some chemicals in herbicides need rain to be effective. For late planted crops due to heavy spring rain, the lack of rain is limiting crop growth. MyWabashValley.com (Terre Haute, Ind.), June 23, 2022

A corn and sorghum grower in Nueces County anticipates getting just 25% of the yield that he would like from his corn, due to drought. Sixty percent of the cotton in Nueces County is not usable; 60% of corn in the county is “very poor,” and a lot of fields are in the 750 lb. range, although most sorghum fields yield 4,500-5,000 lbs. per acre. Rain cannot help the corn at this point. KRISTV NBC 6 Corpus Christi (Texas), June 23, 2022

Amid drought, when fires can spark more easily and be more difficult to contain, the San Jose Fire Department is understaffed and has expressed concern about being able to adequately respond to fires. Many calls have come in, which places heavy demand on the shrinking group of available firefighters. Firefighting is a stressful job, overtime can increase the strain, and burnout is a big concern. NBC Bay Area (San Jose, Calif.) June 23, 2022

Drought in the Carolinas has stunted the growth of corn, cotton and soybeans. Water levels were falling in streams, creeks and retention ponds. The fire risk is higher than normal. WMBF-TV NBC Myrtle Beach (S.C.), June 23, 2022

The 3,209-acre Kinsley Fire, about 60 miles northeast of Ely, Nev., is 100-percent contained.The fire, in the Antelope Range on the Elko-White Pine County line, was first reported shortly before 1 p.m., Friday, June 17. The cause is under

Seventeen counties in southeast Texas have burn bans in effect, due to the hot, dry weather. The counties include Fort Bend, Galveston, Brazoria, Matagorda, Wharton, Jackson, Calhoun, Waller, Austin, Colorado, Grimes, Liberty, San Jacinto, Walker, Trinity and Polk. KTRK ABC 13(Houston, Texas), June 23, 2022

Utah Governor Spencer Cox and firefighters appealed to the public to skip personal fireworks this year. All of Utah is in drought and has already been battling wildfires. Some cities, such as South Jordan have begun enacting fireworks restrictions, due to the wildfire risk and limited firefighting resources. KSTU-FOX 13 (Salt Lake City, Utah), June 23, 2022

Intensifying drought conditions have led officials in Williamson County to disallow sales of stick rockets and missiles with fins or rudders. In Travis County, the Texas Pyrotechnic Association also voluntarily agreed to not sell certain products in the county, due to the fire risk. Both Williamson and Travis counties have bans on outdoor burning. KVUE News Online (Texas), June 23, 2022

Corn in western Kentucky has gray, folded leaves as just 50% to 75% of normal rain has fallen in the past 30 days. The heat and low rainfall may be reducing yields. Louisville Courier Journal (Ky.), June 23, 2022

The fire was initially reported on the 10th of June at 4:28 PM. As of June 18th, the fire was estimated to be 3,704 acres and is burning in the Wallow Fire burn scar near Fish Creek and Forest Service Road 25B, approximately 20 miles SW of Alpine, AZ. The Fish Fire is burning mixed conifer, dead and down trees, and abundant standing snags. A dry lightning storm was occurring in the area at the time, and a lightning strike has been determined to be the cause. Fire activity is flanking and backing through heavy burn scar and grass. The fire is being managed through confine and contain strategies. A contain strategy is a wildfire response strategy of restricting a wildfire to a defined area, primarily using natural barriers that are expected to restrict the spread of the wildfire under the prevailing and forecasted weather conditions. There may be additional suppression activities, such as burnout and line construction, in order to confine the fire to the containment boundary. Due to...

 Crew worked through the night to contain fire.  Fire acres mapped at 370 acres and 100% contained.  Will continue to monitor and patrol due to fire weather and fuels conditions continue to deteriorate due to

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF KS/NE/SD/MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are most likely over parts of the central Great Plains and the central portions of Minnesota to South Dakota, mainly this evening. ...Northern KS/southern NE... Low-level warm theta-e advection has maintained a swath of elevated convection centered on northeast to east-central KS, just northeast of the surface warm front. To the south and west of this activity, robust boundary-layer heating is underway, likely increasing baroclinicity across the front by late afternoon. A low-amplitude mid-level perturbation over the southern Rockies should be favorably timed to aid in scattered high-based convection developing along the lee trough in western KS to its intersection with the warm front near southwest NE. While morning guidance varies substantially with the overall thermodynamic environment, the 12Z HRW-NSSL/ARW and NAM-Nest all suggest potential for at least a couple long-lived supercells slowly spreading east-southeast from southwest NE across northern KS. Midlevel flow will not be strong, although speed shear into the upper levels will favor large hail growth. Hodographs will depend on the degree of low-level easterly flow component in the warm advection zone along and north of the warm front, which guidance also varies substantially on. Even so, an increase in a nocturnal southerly low-level jet will likely assist in potential for a small MCS this evening. Given the conditionally favorable setup, potential for sig hail and wind is apparent in addition to a tornadic supercell or two. ...Central portions of MN/SD... A weak surface trough, associated with a low-amplitude shortwave impulse over northern ON, will drift southeast across northeast to west-central MN, with a separate surface trough extending north from western KS/NE into central SD. An increase in low-level moisture from the south and southwest, combined with strong daytime heating and modest convergence along the troughs, should support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development during the late afternoon to early evening. While model moisture forecasts are likely overdone, and weak large-scale forcing for ascent limits confidence, steep mid-level lapse rates and adequate deep-layer shear will support conditional potential for a few supercells and multicell clustering. Most morning CAM guidance suggests a narrow corridor of cat 2/SLGT-risk caliber storms should form with a threat for large hail and damaging winds. ...Central/eastern MT... A mid-level closed low over southern BC will move eastward, with the primary jet crossing northern MT through tonight. Associated surface cold front will push east and provide a focus for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across central to eastern MT during the late afternoon and evening. Low-level moisture will remain limited with boundary-layer dew points in the 40s, yielding MLCAPE to only around 500 J/kg. Still, inverted-v thermodynamic profiles and some increase in mid-level flow will support the threat for isolated severe gusts and small to marginally severe hail. ...Eastern NV/western UT... A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Sierra NV will gradually progress east across parts of NV into western UT through tonight. Moderate forcing for ascent ahead of this trough, combined with daytime heating/mixing, will support scattered high-based thunderstorm development. Limited boundary-layer moisture will result in only meager MLCAPE and effective bulk shear will remain weak. But deeply mixed inverted-v thermodynamic profiles and DCAPE greater than 1000 J/kg will support a threat for isolated severe gusts. ..Grams/Weinman.. 06/23/2022 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Jun 23 16:35:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jun 23 16:35:01 UTC 2022.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 23 Jun 2022 14:39:26 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 23 Jun 2022 15:23:59 GMT