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Conditions remained dry, hot and windy. Temperatures reached 109 degrees. Extreme fire dangers existed all week. High winds caused wind erosion. There were reports of dying plant life, including trees. Producers were not happy with soil moisture levels, and emergence was questionable. Corn fields will start sharing water with cotton soon, so rainfall will be necessary for corn to make decent yields. Pastures remained completely bare of any forage, and producers were selling livestock at a high rate due to poor conditions. Deer feeding in ditches continue to be a hazard for drivers. Deer were expected to become a severe problem in cotton as it begins to emerge. Livestock producers were feeding supplements and heavy hay rations. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), May 24, 2022 Temperatures in Far West Texas were brutally hot with high winds causing soil moisture to evaporate quickly. More rain and irrigation moisture were evaporating than fields could absorb. There were reports of dead grasses and trees. Corn was beginning to show stress. Pastures were generally bare, and cattle were becoming scarce. Livestock were being fed more cubes due to decreased pasture quality. Producers continued to feed livestock and wildlife. Irrigation water in the lower valley was limited to City of El Paso effluent water and some lower-quality well water. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), May 10, 2022 Dry and windy conditions persisted, and wildfire threats remained extremely high. Winds with 40 mph gusts slowed fieldwork due to visibility issues. Most fieldwork halted as growers waited for some significant rain before doing any more land preparation. Rangeland conditions continued to deteriorate in southern areas but were greening up in northern parts of the district. Livestock were getting expensive to feed. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), April 26, 2022 No rain was reported in Far West Texas amid extremely dry and windy conditions. No cotton was planted yet, and growers were not optimistic about the crop due to dry conditions. More producers were turning off their irrigation water and most will not irrigate this season. What little corn that was planted was showing mixed conditions at this point with a portion looking very good and other fields looking poor with nonuniform emergence. Andrews County lost approximately 6,500 acres of rangeland to wildfire. Livestock producers were providing heavy rations of supplemental hay and feed due to poor grazing conditions. Many pastures were completely bare of grass. Many ranchers were evaluating herds for culling. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), April 19, 2022 Conditions remained dry in Far West Texas. Rangeland conditions continued to deteriorate in drier areas. Only irrigated wheat remained. A few producers who were pre-watering fields have already shut off wells because pivots were not adding soil moisture. Producers were having a very difficult time getting corn to emerge on irrigated ground, and many were considering abandoning the crop. Some wheat and oats under irrigation were expected to be cut and baled. Ranchers were considering culling herds soon without rain. Cattle continued to be sold due to the price of feed and reduced availability. Pastures were bare, with no weeds or grass present. Producers were worried about potential herd consolidation due to drought. Alfalfa fields and pecan orchards continued to receive irrigation. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), April 12, 2022 Blowing sand was piling up in Far West Texas due to extremely high winds. Corn acres were down significantly due to lack of moisture and irrigation availability. Sorghum planting should begin soon, however, acres may decline as well. Fieldwork for cotton slowed down as most producers were afraid of disturbing the soil due to the high winds. More growers were shutting the irrigation off because they could not get the soil wet enough to work or plant, but some continued watering fields. Farmers around El Paso were relying on well water and effluent from the city. Cattle were in fair condition, but producers continued to cull herds due to the lack of grazing and high feed costs. A wildfire burned for two days covering approximately 650 acres in the northern part of Jeff Davis County. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), April 5, 2022 Conditions in Far West Texas were windy with no precipitation. Rangeland conditions were extremely dry. Only irrigated wheat fields remained. Pre-irrigation for cotton continued, and some pecan orchards and alfalfa fields were receiving water as well. The Lower Valley was being irrigated with effluent from the City of El Paso, some private wells, and some El Paso County Water Improvement District No. 1 wells. Water quality issues were a problem during this critical time. The Upper Valley was irrigating crops with private wells, but the water quality was very good. Some fires reached West Texas, and due to the high winds, ranchers were forced to move the cattle to different sections of their ranches. Producers continued to feed wildlife and livestock. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), March 29, 2022 The lack of precipitation, strong winds and blowing sand reduced visibility in Far West Texas at times to less than an eighth of a mile. Conditions made it hard for ranchers to work cattle. There were reports of high winds damaging crops and water systems plus evaporating much of the soil moisture from pre-irrigated fields. Very little fieldwork was being done as producers tried to limit input costs. Area cow/calf producers were working calves and selling more livestock, especially cattle, due to cost-prohibitive supplemental feeding. Many fires had broken out, including one that burned around 4,000 acres. Rangeland conditions were poor. Pre-irrigation for row crop fields continued, including some irrigation for pecan orchards and remaining alfalfa. Irrigation in portions of the Lower Valley was effluent/treated sewage from the City of El Paso, El Paso County Water Improvement District No. 1 wells and some private wells. Water was scheduled to be released from Elephant Butte Reservoir in late May, which would deliver water to El Paso County in early June. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), March 22, 2022 Extreme drought conditions continued in Far West Texas. Blowing sand was starting to cover roads due to high winds and lack of cover crops. Livestock producers were supplemental feeding with protein and hay. Rangelands continued to decline with no precipitation. Pre-irrigation continued in the Rio Grande Valley, mainly for Pima and upland cotton. Some alfalfa and pecan orchards were being irrigated. More planted cotton acres were expected due to higher cotton prices. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), March 15, 2022 Conditions were dry with no rainfall. The district went 200 days since the last rain of 0.5 of an inch or more. There was no wheat, and pastures were bare. A few growers turned on their irrigation wells. Irrigated acres may be down considerably this year, especially considering the high cost of inputs. Summer forages were still dormant. Producers were supplementing all livestock with hay and grain. Ranchers were selling more cattle weekly including breeding stock. Parts of the lower valley received effluent water from the City of El Paso via the irrigation district. The upper valley will rely on wells for pre-irrigation of row crops, alfalfa and pecans. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), March 8, 2022 Dry conditions continued in Far West Texas with many counties having issues with visibility due to high winds and blowing sand. Pasture and rangeland conditions were very poor. Winter wheat was also in very poor condition. Producers were spraying to keep insects away from crops, but others were waiting for rain before starting. A few producers started irrigating soil but will shut wells off if rain does not come soon. Pastures continued to be bare. Cattle producers were reducing stocking rates and increasing supplemental feed rations. More cattle were being sold. Water levels at Elephant Butte reservoir were low as they were last year. Although Pima cotton prices were very high this year, very little cotton was expected to be planted due to severe drought conditions. AgriLife (College Station, Texas), March 2, 2022 Small portions of the district received trace amounts of rain, but most areas do not have enough moisture for cover crops or to sand fight. Heavy winds were received with power outages reported. Drought conditions continued and growers were trying to decide what to do this summer. A few producers began to pre-water fields for the upcoming cotton crop. Most producers were not going to irrigate until significant rainfall improves subsoil moisture. Wheat was nearly non-existent with only a couple of irrigated fields that have not failed. The irrigated wheat was in very poor condition as irrigation was limited. Wheat was behind this year, but remaining fields have begun to joint. Stocking rates were extremely low, and some producers were culling deeper to reduce supplemental feed requirements. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Feb 24, 2022 Far West Texas had a very small amount of irrigated wheat that had not grown much due to cold temperatures and a lack of moisture. Pastures were completely bare of forage for livestock. Cattle were looking thin, and producers were still feeding them heavy rations. They also continued to sell off cull cows and younger calves at lighter weights. A few producers were considering reducing herd size due to high feed costs. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Feb 15, 2022 Far West Texas remained extremely dry. Wheat seeds may germinate if the ground warms back up, but more moisture will be necessary to sustain the crop. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Feb 8, 2022 No dryland wheat in Far West Texas had emerged, and irrigated wheat only came up directly above drip tapes. Pastures were bare of grass and forage for cattle. Producers continued to sell off calves and poorer cows. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Feb 1, 2022 Far West Texas was warm and dry. Wheat conditions worsened. About 5% of planted fields emerged, and dryland fields that emerged were dead. Irrigated wheat on drip systems had not emerged between the tapes. Growers who dug ditches to install new drip irrigation said there was no moisture up to 6 feet in ground depth. Rangeland and pastures were very hard and dry. Cattle were receiving supplemental feed, and more producers were thinning herds due to lack of forages and high feed costs. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Jan 25, 2022

 Had 27 acre spot fire that crews quickly suppressed and put containment line around.  Containment line is completed around fire perimeter.  Continue to mop up and

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031713
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jul 3 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Bonnie, located a couple of hundred miles south of southern
Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN... The only change with this update was a slight southward expansion of the Critical area into far northwest AZ and southern NV based on the latest surface observations and high-resolution guidance consensus. In addition to the fire-weather concerns described below, RAP forecast soundings show deep inverted-V profiles over parts of central into northeast UT -- supportive of isolated high-based dry thunderstorms and the potential for a lightning-induced ignition or two given receptive fuels. However, the anticipated limited coverage of this activity precludes the introduction of dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Weinman.. 07/03/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will shift eastward into the Plains states as a mid-level trough advances toward the Intermountain West today. Surface lee troughing will materialize across the Great Basin, with Elevated to Critical dry and windy conditions developing along the Nevada/Utah during the afternoon hours. Scattered thunderstorms will also develop across the northern Rockies into the Pacific Northwest by afternoon peak heating. While some of these storms may be high-based and potentially dry, overall wetter storms will become more abundant and traverse fuel beds that are marginally receptive to fire spread, precluding dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Jul 3 16:40:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jul 3 16:40:01 UTC 2022.

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF MT TO SOUTHWEST ND... ...SUMMARY... The most concentrated corridor of severe storms, including potential for significant severe wind/hail and a few tornadoes, is forecast across parts of Montana into southwest North Dakota through this evening. ...MT to western ND... Primary mid-level low just off the OR coast is embedded within a broader Pacific Coast trough. Multiple waves of ascent are evident downstream of this trough, with the ones most impactful for severe potential across southwest MT this morning and the next across southwest ID. Guidance differs on the degree of intensification of convection with the initial wave, while greater consistency exists on convective evolution emanating out of the latter one. With easterly low-level winds to the north of the effective surface front beneath 35-45 kt mid-level southwesterlies, enlarged and elongated hodographs will be favorable for several supercells, a few of which could become long-tracked. Primary uncertainty is how quickly storm-scale consolidation/upscale growth will occur. Supercell bow-echo evolution does appear probable as convection rides along the surface front given a deeply mixed thermodynamic environment to its south. A forward-propagating MCS is increasingly likely this evening as low-level winds and convergence strengthen across eastern MT. The full spectrum of severe threats is expected with significant large hail most likely from mid-afternoon to early evening, and significant severe wind potential centered on this evening. The tornado threat is more nebulous and convective mode dependent, but will be conditionally favored in a west/east-oriented corridor north of the front. ...Northern/central Great Plains... While most of the region will remain under the influence of low-amplitude mid-level ridging, a broad plume of moderate to large buoyancy is expected at peak heating with relative maxima centered near northwest SD and the KS/NE border. Remnant outflow boundaries, the lee trough over the High Plains, and the warm front across ND and the Red River Valley should all focus scattered to widespread thunderstorms from late afternoon into tonight. Stronger deep-layer shear will generally be confined to the ND/Red River Valley regime within the belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies, suggesting that supercell potential farther south will be tied to mesoscale boundaries with broader multicell clustering tending to dominate. While all severe hazards are possible, wind should become the overall primary threat, especially this evening into tonight as multiple MCSs spread east. ...Carolinas... Scattered thunderstorms are expected across much of the Southeast, but potential for loosely organized multicell clustering is most apparent across NC into parts of SC. The latter will be supported by the presence of differential heating across a southward-sagging cold front and the fringe influence of a trough over QC maintaining 15-20 kt mid-level westerlies. With 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE along the coastal plain, strong to locally severe gusts will be possible in wet microbursts through early evening. ..Grams/Hart.. 07/03/2022 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 03 Jul 2022 14:47:04 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 03 Jul 2022 15:22:41 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 03 2022 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 031445 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022 1500 UTC SUN JUL 03 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF GUATEMALA AND SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 92.4W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 92.4W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 91.7W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 12.5N 94.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 13.3N 97.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.1N 100.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 14.9N 103.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.4N 105.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.7N 108.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 16.2N 112.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 17.0N 117.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 92.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 031435 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022 Bonnie appears to be gradually gaining strength. Satellite images show a strong convective band, with a significant amount of lightning, on the western side of the system. Recent microwave data indicate than an inner core is becoming better established, with hints of an eye apparent in the 37 GHz channel. The latest Dvorak classifications were both 3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, and the initial intensity is nudged up to 55 kt based on that data. The storm is currently experiencing a moderate amount of easterly shear, but that is expected to let up some during the next day or so. The improving upper-level wind pattern combined with a moist air mass and warm SSTs should allow Bonnie to steadily strengthen through Monday. Rapid intensification is a possibility, and the SHIPS model shows a fair chance (40 percent) of that occurring within the next 24 hours. In a couple of days, however, easterly shear is expected to increase and SSTs gradually cool beneath the system. These factors should end the strengthening trend and perhaps induce slow weakening. The NHC intensity forecast shows a faster rate of strengthening than the previous one in the short term, but is otherwise unchanged. Bonnie is still moving relatively quickly westward at 280/14 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer Bonnie westward to west-northwestward during the next several days, roughly parallel to the coast of southern Mexico. The track models are in good agreement, and the new forecast lies close to the various consensus aids. Based on the forecast, no watches are required for Guatemala or southern/southwestern Mexico, but interests there should closely monitor updates, as a northward adjustment to the track could require tropical storm watches for portions of this coastline. The main impact from Bonnie is expected to be rough surf and the potential for rip currents along the coast of Guatemala today and southern/southwestern Mexico Monday and Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 11.9N 92.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 12.5N 94.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 13.3N 97.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 14.1N 100.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 14.9N 103.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 06/0000Z 15.4N 105.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 15.7N 108.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 16.2N 112.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 17.0N 117.3W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 03 2022 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 031434 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022 1500 UTC SUN JUL 03 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 105W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 105W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 33(35) 49(84) X(84) X(84) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 42(48) X(48) X(48) 15N 105W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) X(25) X(25) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) 10N 100W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 100W 34 X 2( 2) 69(71) 4(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) 15N 100W 50 X X( X) 23(23) 4(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) 15N 100W 64 X X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ACAPULCO 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) P MALDONADO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P ANGEL 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 95W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 36(63) 1(64) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25(29) 1(30) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 1(15) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) 2(25) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 26(38) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 26(40) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 031434 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bonnie Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022 ...BONNIE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING... ...AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND ROUGH SURF AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE GUATEMALA AND THE SOUTHERN MEXICO COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.9N 92.4W ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM S OF TAPACHULA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the coasts of Guatemala and southern and southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 92.4 West. Bonnie is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion should continue for the next several days. On the forecast track, the core of Bonnie is expected to remain south, but move parallel to, the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Bonnie is expected to become a hurricane tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The outer rain bands of Bonnie could cause areas of heavy rainfall during the next couple of days across portions of Guatemala, and southern and southwestern Mexico. SURF: Swells generated by Bonnie will affect portions of the coasts of Guatemala, and southern and southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...BONNIE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING... ...AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND ROUGH SURF AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE GUATEMALA AND THE SOUTHERN MEXICO COAST... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sun Jul 3 the center of Bonnie was located near 11.9, -92.4 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 AM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MONTANA TO PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorm gusts are expected this afternoon through the evening from southern/central Montana to parts of western North Dakota. Isolated large hail also may occur. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a persistent/high-latitude blocking pattern over western Canada will transition from an omega shape toward a Rex configuration through the period, with slow progress of a basal cyclone now located just offshore from the Pacific Northwest. The associated 500-mb low is forecast to pivot inland over the southwestern WA/northwestern OR area by around 12Z tomorrow, with a trough southward along the OR coastline and offshore from central/southern CA. Several vorticity maxima and shortwaves -- embedded in the cyclone's southern semicircle -- should eject northeastward toward the northern Rockies and through the central/northern High Plains mean ridge. The 11Z surface analysis showed a cold front from near Cape Cod across NJ, northern VA, south-central WV, and northeastern KY, becoming quasistationary over southern parts of IN/IL, then a warm front across western IA, eastern SD and southwestern ND, to a low over southeastern MT. The low should remain over southeastern MT for much of the day before migrating eastward overnight, while the warm front decelerates and perhaps becomes quasistationary to its east over ND, then southeast across southwestern MN. A lee trough will extend from the low across eastern parts of WY and the NE Panhandle. ...MT to western ND... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are possible, developing in multiple episodes and clusters across southwestern, central, south-central and eastern MT this afternoon into evening. This activity should develop over higher terrain of southern MT, as well as near the boundary, as shots of DCVA/ascent aloft eject over the area and out of the northwestern mid/upper trough. Activity should track along and north of the baroclinic zone, close to an axis of low-level moisture, and with the easterly ambient low-level wind component maximizing storm-relative flow in the inflow layer. This potential will be supported by a corridor of strong veering of flow with height -- supporting 50-60 kt effective-shear magnitudes and enlarged boundary-layer hodographs. Forecast soundings reasonably show steep low/middle-level lapse rates with MLCAPE in the 1500-3000 J/kg range as well. The full spectrum of severe threats is possible, given that sufficient shear and buoyancy will exist for supercells. However, clustering and upscale growth of convection, including bow-echo evolution, are expected. With potential for downward momentum transfer in downdrafts from the faster flow aloft, cold-pool aggregation and rear-inflow-jet development, severe gusts should be the most common effect with this activity overall. ...Northern/central Plains... See SPC mesoscale discussion 1336 for more on the short-term, marginal-hail threat across parts of SD and southwestern MN. Otherwise, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible over a broad swath of Nebraska and the Dakotas, east and southeast of the more strongly synoptically influenced MT regime. Specific potential foci for initiation are varied and saddled with mesoscale uncertainties, including: 1. The main synoptic front across ND, where the greatest flow aloft, surface wind backing, hodograph size, and deep shear will be in place for conditional supercell/large-hail and perhaps even tornado potential, but with least confidence in storm location/ coverage due to ridging aloft and recovery concerns around outflow to the south. 2. Outflow/differential-heating boundaries over SD from prior overnight and ongoing convection, and their shaping of theta-e fields. This regime still is being affected by ongoing/elevated activity over the region that itself has at least marginal hail potential. The related MCV -- now apparent in radar animations over northeastern SD -- should be well east of the area by prime destabilization time this afternoon. A choppy field of favorable low-level moisture should develop by mid/late afternoon in a corridor about 100-200 nm wide from southeastern/south-central NE across central SD, beneath midlevel lapse rates steep enough to support 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. 3. The surface low and trailing lee trough, and orographically aided lift over the Black Hills. This regime probably is the most certain for initiation today, ahead of a weak perturbation apparent in moisture-channel imagery over portions of WY/CO. Activity should move into a well-heated/mixed boundary layer and offering a severe- gust threat. However, this area will be under nebulous large-scale forcing (also near the ridge aloft) and weaker bulk shear than farther north. Some activity moving out of the northern part of this regime may persist well into the evening over parts of SD, supported by increasing low-level moisture and the LLJ. ...Carolinas, Hampton Roads... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible along and south of the front today, offering occasional damaging winds that may reach marginal severe levels on an isolated basis. Difluent westerly to northwesterly flow aloft will exist over the region, well southwest of a mid/upper cyclone moving eastward across northeastern QC and Labrador. Following the remnants of T.C. Colin, the airmass over the region will remain richly moist, with surface dew points commonly in the upper 60s to mid 70s F. This, in tandem with diurnal heating, will offset modest midlevel lapse rates enough to support 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Low/middle-level winds and deep shear will be weak, with multicells the dominant mode and localized, water-loaded downdrafts offering the greatest gust potential, until activity diminishes this evening. ..Edwards/Goss.. 07/03/2022 Read more

For the second straight year, no Highland Lakes water will be available for Lower Colorado River Authority interruptible water customers in the Gulf Coast, Lakeside and Pierce Ranch agricultural operations in Colorado, Wharton and Matagorda counties. “The majority of the Hill Country has only received between 5 and 10 inches of rain since October, well below average, and the amount of water flowing into the Highland Lakes from January through June is the lowest on record for that six-month period,” according to the LCRA executive vice president. KVUE News Online (Austin, Texas), July 2, 2022

Water restrictions in Storm Lake became mandatory on July 1 due to high water demand during a period of drought. The neighboring communities of Lakeside, Lake Creek, Truesdale, and Casino Beach must also abide by the same rules because they receive water from Storm Lake. KTIV-TV NBC 4 (Sioux City, Iowa), July 1, 2022

The latest USDA Cattle on Feed report showed June feedlot inventories of 11.846 million head, 101.2 percent of one year ago. This is a record level of June feedlot cattle since the data series began in 1996. Of the top four cattle feeding states, the number of cattle in feedlots compared to the previous year was up 3% in Texas, 4% in Nebraska, down 1% in Kansas and up 1% in Colorado. These four states have 76.4% of the total feedlot inventories. Feedlot numbers are decreasing seasonally with the June 1 level lower for the fourth straight month from the record February feedlot inventory of 12.199 million head. Drought has likely been a significant factor in the higher heifer slaughter in 2021 and 2022. Drovers Cattle Network (Lenexa, Kan.), June 28, 2022

Flash drought developed in east central, southern and northwest Illinois. Most of the corn in the drought-affected area, and fields that were planted later or have compacted or light-textured soils elsewhere displayed leaf curling in the afternoon, and many were beginning to curl in the mornings. Corn and soybeans were shorter than they might have been due to difficulty in taking up enough water to fully expand cells. Leaf area increases have also been slowed, with soybeans having smaller leaves, and corn in some fields not adding leaf stages as quickly as growing degree accumulations predict. AgFax (Brandon, Miss.), June 27, 2022

River flows in eastern Massachusetts have gotten quite low, including the Neponset River in Norwood, and the Ipswich River and the Charles River at Waltham. The North Nashua in Fitchburg and the Weir River in Hingham were at record low levels for this date. Roughly half of the state's local water districts have begun enacting restrictions. Fire departments have noticed that fires are burning deeper than usual underground, requiring more water to extinguish the fires. WCVB-TV ABC 5 Boston (Mass.), July 1, 2022