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464
ABPZ20 KNHC 251131
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Jun 25 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Celia, located a few hundred miles south of the southern tip
of the Baja California Peninsula.

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form well offshore of
southern Mexico early next week. Environmental conditions could
support some slow development of this system thereafter as it moves
generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Burn bans were in effect for Mt. Juliet, Lebanon and Robertson County amid the intense heat and brushfires. WKRN (Nashville, Tenn.), June 23, 2022

The Cookeville Fire Department will not issue burn permits as the weather was too hot and dry. Herald-Citizen (Cookeville, Tenn.), June 24, 2022

The flow of the Frio River in Concan has dropped to zero cubic feet per second, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. At Garner State Park visitors cannot enjoy tubing due to the low levels and can swim only in certain parts of the river. Garner State Park issued a park alert, urging park visitors to conserve water and to bring their own drinking water. The use of showers may be limited. Extremely low river flows can let the water stagnate, causing algae blooms or harmful bacteria, so people recreating should be careful in such areas of the Frio River. The water will be tested by the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality next week and the findings made available to the public. San Antonio Express-News (Texas), June 24, 2022

Prior Lake is lower than normal due to hot, dry weather. There is more beach than usual, and several parts of the lake are dangerously low, so boaters should avoid those spots. It’s dry in the Twin Cities, and the grass is brown. FOX 9 (Eden Prairie, Minn.), June 24, 2022

On the afternoon of June 23, 2022, a wildfire (River Fire) started approximately 6 miles Northeast from the City of Burkburnett. The fire was located in heavy brush, mesquite, and sandy terrain.The Burkburnett Fire Department (BFD) were on a small 4-acre fire on the Southeast side of town, as they were toned out to a larger fire on the opposite side of the city, to what it became known as the River Fire. BFD requested assistance from surrounding fire departments to include State resources from Texas A&M Forest Service (TAMFS), and Federal resources from Sheppard Air Force Base. TAMFS resources arrived and worked with BFD under a unified command.  The increasing temperatures are becoming more frequent, the vegetation is drying up making it more susceptible to igniting. As the small 4-acre fire (Lonely Fire), was controlled, BFD were toned out to a third fire (Green Fire), 5 miles Southwest of town, it was controlled at 7.5 acres. Please be mindful of the high temperatures, low...

The Western Montana All Hazards Incident Management Team is transitioning out and management of ongoing operations will move to county and local resources. Continuing information can be found at on the web: carbonalert.org/incidents and on Facebook: @CarbonAlert. The information phone and email will remain active and someone will respond to inquiries as soon as they can. Friday will be the last update on Inciweb. On June 12th, 2022, Rock Creek and the Clarks Fork of the Yellowstone experienced a historic flood. This resulted in significant bridge and road damage in Carbon County. Numerous homes have been impacted by the flood.  FEMA announced that federal disaster assistance has been made available to the state of Montana to supplement state and local recovery efforts in the areas affected by a severe storm and flooding from June 10, 2022 and continuing.  |Carbon Alert Incident Map|         |Volunteer Forms|          |Carbon Alert Facebook|         |Carbon Alert...

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z Added an Isolated Dry Thunderstorm delineation across the south-central Sierra. Morning forecast soundings and CAM guidance support the threat for isolated thunderstorm development. No changes were made to the ongoing IsoDryT area in northwest Arizona and southern Utah. Numerous storms are expected across north-central Arizona where fuels are also dry, but PWAT will be slightly higher across this region. Therefore, no scattered DryT area is needed. ..Bentley.. 06/24/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022/ ...Synopsis... Large-scale upper ridging will prevail across much of the central and southern CONUS as a weak mid-level trough traverses the interior West today. Some dry and breezy conditions may develop across the southern High Plains in association with surface lee troughing, but fuel receptiveness is expected to remain modest enough to temper more widespread wildfire growth. Monsoonal mid-level moisture will continue to meander across the Southwest into the Four Corners and foster isolated to potentially scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon. While storm motion will be slow, forecast soundings depict inverted-v profiles, where fuels are highly receptive to fire spread. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were added where the greatest chance of drier thunderstorms will overlap the most receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jun 24 16:37:01 UTC 2022.

No watches are valid as of Fri Jun 24 16:37:01 UTC 2022.

The Hog Spring fire transitioned from a type 4 Incident Management Team to a type 5 fire organization on June 23, with Incident Commander Jakob Gormally. The final update for this fire was published on June 24, 2022. This page will not be updated further unless conditions

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH DAKOTA...AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with the potential for widespread damaging wind gusts, very large hail, and a couple of tornadoes are expected from the eastern Dakotas into northwestern Minnesota this afternoon into tonight. ...ND/SD/MN... Morning water vapor imagery shows a broad upper trough across the northern Rockies today, with an embedded shortwave trough currently along the MT/WY border. This feature will track into the northern Plains later today, with large scale forcing for ascent overspreading parts of the Dakotas. Strong heating across eastern/central ND and convergence along a surface boundary will lead to afternoon thunderstorm development from south-central into northeast ND. Other storms will form by late afternoon to the north of the boundary across western/central ND as the upper trough approaches. Forecast soundings suggest strong instability (MLCAPE of 2500-4500 J/kg) and favorable effective shear for supercell storm structures capable of very large hail and perhaps a tornado or two. Storms are expected to develop southward along boundary into central SD during the evening, with gradual upscale growth into bowing line segments. This activity will spread into western MN with the risk of rather widespread damaging winds. ...Northeast WY/northwest SD... A consensus of 12z model guidance shows a cluster of afternoon thunderstorms forming over northeast WY and the Black Hills region. Moisture is more limited in this area, yielding MLCAPE values only into the 1000 J/kg range. However, steep lapse rates, cool temperatures aloft (-12C at 500mb), and 30-40 knots of westerly flow mid-level flow may result in a few supercells capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Southeast NE and vicinity... Morning convection has resulted in an outflow boundary extending from western MO into eastern KS. This boundary is forecast to drift northward toward the KS/NE border by late afternoon, with forecast soundings showing relatively large hodographs and strong instability - posing a conditional risk of severe storms. However, no 12z CAM guidance shows any thunderstorms forming in this area due to a relatively warm capping layer. Have therefore removed the SLGT, but continue to acknowledge the conditional risk of significant severe weather if a storm can initiate/persist. ...GA/FL... Numerous afternoon thunderstorms are expected from the FL peninsula into central GA. A hot, humid, and very unstable air mass is present in this corridor with dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s and MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg. Shear is weak, but multicell storms capable of locally strong/damaging wet microbursts appear possible. ..Hart/Jirak.. 06/24/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH DAKOTA...AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with the potential for widespread damaging wind gusts, very large hail, and a couple of tornadoes are expected from the eastern Dakotas into northwestern Minnesota this afternoon into tonight. ...ND/SD/MN... Morning water vapor imagery shows a broad upper trough across the northern Rockies today, with an embedded shortwave trough currently along the MT/WY border. This feature will track into the northern Plains later today, with large scale forcing for ascent overspreading parts of the Dakotas. Strong heating across eastern/central ND and convergence along a surface boundary will lead to afternoon thunderstorm development from south-central into northeast ND. Other storms will form by late afternoon to the north of the boundary across western/central ND as the upper trough approaches. Forecast soundings suggest strong instability (MLCAPE of 2500-4500 J/kg) and favorable effective shear for supercell storm structures capable of very large hail and perhaps a tornado or two. Storms are expected to develop southward along boundary into central SD during the evening, with gradual upscale growth into bowing line segments. This activity will spread into western MN with the risk of rather widespread damaging winds. ...Northeast WY/northwest SD... A consensus of 12z model guidance shows a cluster of afternoon thunderstorms forming over northeast WY and the Black Hills region. Moisture is more limited in this area, yielding MLCAPE values only into the 1000 J/kg range. However, steep lapse rates, cool temperatures aloft (-12C at 500mb), and 30-40 knots of westerly flow mid-level flow may result in a few supercells capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Southeast NE and vicinity... Morning convection has resulted in an outflow boundary extending from western MO into eastern KS. This boundary is forecast to drift northward toward the KS/NE border by late afternoon, with forecast soundings showing relatively large hodographs and strong instability - posing a conditional risk of severe storms. However, no 12z CAM guidance shows any thunderstorms forming in this area due to a relatively warm capping layer. Have therefore removed the SLGT, but continue to acknowledge the conditional risk of significant severe weather if a storm can initiate/persist. ...GA/FL... Numerous afternoon thunderstorms are expected from the FL peninsula into central GA. A hot, humid, and very unstable air mass is present in this corridor with dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s and MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg. Shear is weak, but multicell storms capable of locally strong/damaging wet microbursts appear possible. ..Hart/Jirak.. 06/24/2022 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 24 Jun 2022 14:40:59 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 24 Jun 2022 15:23:01 GMT

Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 241439 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 900 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022 Little by little, Celia is becoming better organized. Deep-layer shear has decreased markedly from a few days ago, but the cyclone still appears to be in the process of mixing out some of the dry air that got into the circulation. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates now range from 55 to 65 kt, therefore Celia's estimated intensity is increased to 55 kt on this advisory. Celia is moving slowly toward the west-northwest (290/7 kt) to the south of a mid-level ridge that stretches across the southern United States and northern Mexico. The ridge is not particularly strong, however, and this pattern is likely to cause Celia to slow down further to around 5 kt during the next 12-24 hours. After 24 hours, the ridge is expected to strengthen and expand westward, causing Celia to gradually accelerate through day 5. The guidance envelope is tightly packed, and the updated NHC track forecast is unchanged from the 09z forecast. Shear diagnoses from the SHIPS model indicate that deep-layer shear is likely to be less than 10 kt during the entire 5-day forecast period. However, the limiting factor to Celia's intensity will be sea surface temperatures. Celia still has an opportunity to strengthen further, possibly to a hurricane, during the next 24 hours or so before it begins to cross the tight SST gradient near Socorro Island. Gradual weakening is forecast after 36 hours over colder waters, and Celia is likely to lose its deep convection and become post-tropical by day 4. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 17.1N 109.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 17.4N 109.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 17.9N 110.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 18.5N 111.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 19.1N 113.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 27/0000Z 19.6N 115.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 20.2N 117.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 28/1200Z 21.5N 122.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 29/1200Z 22.4N 126.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 241439 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Celia Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 900 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022 ...CELIA STRONGER AND COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 109.0W ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM SE OF SOCORRO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Celia was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 109.0 West. Celia is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). Celia is forecast to slow down later today and tonight but then gradually accelerate on a west-northwestward course late Saturday into Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Celia could become a hurricane tonight or on Saturday. Weakening is expected to begin Saturday night or Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells are affecting portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the southern Baja California peninsula and the coast of west-central Mexico today and Saturday. These conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

...CELIA STRONGER AND COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON SATURDAY... As of 9:00 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 the center of Celia was located near 17.1, -109.0 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUN 24 2022 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 241439 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 1500 UTC FRI JUN 24 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 110W 34 2 10(12) 10(22) 3(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) ISLA SOCORRO 34 4 59(63) 23(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 8( 8) 25(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ISLA CLARION 34 1 1( 2) 7( 9) 24(33) 17(50) 1(51) X(51) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) X(14) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 20(26) 35(61) 1(62) X(62) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) X(22) X(22) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 19(26) 1(27) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUN 24 2022 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 241438 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 1500 UTC FRI JUN 24 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 109.0W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 75SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 109.0W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 108.8W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.4N 109.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...130NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.9N 110.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.5N 111.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.1N 113.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 19.6N 115.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 20.2N 117.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 21.5N 122.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 22.4N 126.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 109.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTHWESTERN MN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with gusts up to 75 mph, very large hail up to 3 inches in diameter, and a couple of tornadoes are expected from the eastern Dakotas into northwestern Minnesota this afternoon into tonight. ...Northern Plains and vicinity this afternoon into tonight... A corridor of low 70s dewpoints persists this morning from southeast ND into central SD, to the east of a stalled front. Cyclogenesis is expected today along the stalled front, as an upstream shortwave trough moves eastward over MT, and a separate shortwave trough ejects northeastward from UT/WY. The front will begin to move eastward later this evening into tonight in response to the approaching midlevel troughs, with scattered-numerous thunderstorms expected along and ahead of the front across the central/eastern Dakotas into northwest MN. Surface heating within the moist, pre-frontal air mass, beneath very steep midlevel lapse rates near 9 C/km, will result in MLCAPE of 3500-4500 J/kg. Convective inhibition will likewise weaken by mid afternoon, when thunderstorm development becomes likely. The stronger mid-upper flow will tend to lag west of the cold front, but should be sufficient for supercells close to the boundary. The large CAPE/steep lapse rate environment will support isolated very large hail up to 3 inches in diameter and a couple of tornadoes with the supercells, but there will likely be a tendency for fairly quick upscale growth into clusters/line segments. Large CAPE will favor precipitation loaded downdrafts and large DCAPE will favor intense downdrafts, with the potential for swaths of damaging winds with occasional significant (75 mph) severe outflow gusts late this afternoon into early tonight as storms spread eastward from the Dakotas into MN. Other clusters of more high-based storms are expected to form farther southwest across the central Rockies, and some of this convection will move into the High Plains this evening in association with the ejecting UT/WY shortwave trough. These storms could be maintained long enough to reach the richer moisture/larger CAPE in the vicinity of the stalled front, where large hail will become more of a threat. ...Western GA into FL this afternoon... A surface trough from western GA into north FL, along with daytime heating and local sea breeze circulations, will help focus thunderstorm development by early-mid afternoon. Strong surface heating/mixing with hot afternoon temperatures, as well boundary-layer dewpoints of 70-76 F, will support MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg this afternoon along the surface trough. The strong surface heating will also drive steep low-level lapse rates, and DCAPE at or above 1000 J/kg will favor occasional damaging gusts with downbursts in south-southwest moving clusters of storms this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Jewell.. 06/24/2022 Read more