Aggregator

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUN 25 2022 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 251438 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 1500 UTC SAT JUN 25 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 4 1( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA SOCORRO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA SOCORRO 50 90 X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) ISLA SOCORRO 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLA CLARION 34 1 16(17) 20(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 115W 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 1 11(12) 49(61) 7(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) 20N 115W 50 X 1( 1) 20(21) 4(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 14(18) X(18) X(18) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUN 25 2022 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 251438 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 1500 UTC SAT JUN 25 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 110.8W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 75SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 110.8W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 110.4W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.8N 111.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.2N 113.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 19.7N 115.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 20.2N 117.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 20.8N 118.9W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.5N 121.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 22.5N 125.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 22.9N 130.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 110.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

 The Contreras Fire started June 11 on a remote ridge of the Baboquivari Mountain range, north of the Baboquivari Peak, 20 miles east of Sells, Arizona, on the Tohono O'odham Indian Reservation. The fire, burning in highly flammable grass and brush in steep and rugged terrain, is difficult for firefighters to access. The fire is being Managed by Eastern Area Type 2 Incident Management Team. TODAY: This is the final daily update for the Contreras Fire. The Fire received up to two inches of rain yesterday, helping crews bring containment of the fire to 100%. Accelerated demobilization of resources is in progress. A local Bureau of Indian Affairs Type 4 Incident Management Team will assume command on Saturday, June 25, with resources sufficient to perform any mop up and suppression repair activities. A National Burned Area Emergency Response Team is in the area conducting assessments. They will provide recommendations for both short and long-term repair and/or recovery efforts if any...

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR NORTHERN IL AND ADJACENT AREAS OF IA/MO... ...SUMMARY... Damaging winds and marginally severe hail will be possible this afternoon/evening, focused in northern Illinois, southeast Iowa, and extreme northeast Missouri. ...Northern IL/southeast IA to KS/OK through late evening... A midlevel shortwave trough over the Dakotas this morning will move generally eastward toward the upper MS Valley and upper Great Lakes, around the northern periphery of the midlevel high over the southern Plains. A surface cyclone will precede the midlevel trough across western ON to James Bay, and a trailing cold front will move southeastward across the upper MS Valley and the central Plains through tonight. An MCV may emerge from the ongoing warm advection storms across IA, and the MCV will move over southern WI/northern IL toward southwest Lower MI by late afternoon/evening. Clouds and rain-cooled air with the IA convection will tend to limit the northeast extent of substantial destabilization today to IL and southwestward along the front to KS/OK. On the southern fringe of the morning convection and the larger-scale trough approaching the upper MS Valley, strong buoyancy is expected from MO/southeast IA into parts of northern IL. Additional convection is expected late this afternoon ahead of the cold front and along any remaining outflow/differential heating boundaries from southeast IA into IL. This area will be near the southern fringe of the slightly stronger flow aloft, where there is a better chance for more organized storm clusters capable of producing damaging outflow gusts late this afternoon/evening. Farther southwest, hotter temperatures and deeper mixing will support high-based storms with some downburst potential along the front into southern KS/northern OK. The stronger storms near the front may also pose a marginal hail threat, and elevated convection may persist overnight to the north of the cold front. ...Southern AL/FL Panhandle this afternoon... Another afternoon of diurnal convection is expected along a weak surface boundary drifting westward into AL and the western FL Panhandle. Strong surface heating will occur (especially west of the boundary), and boundary-layer dewpoints along the boundary will contribute to strong buoyancy this afternoon. Vertical shear will be weak, but thermodynamic profiles will support some threat for isolated wind damage with downbursts, mainly this afternoon. ..Thompson/Jewell.. 06/25/2022 Read more

464
ABPZ20 KNHC 251131
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Jun 25 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Celia, located a few hundred miles south of the southern tip
of the Baja California Peninsula.

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form well offshore of
southern Mexico early next week. Environmental conditions could
support some slow development of this system thereafter as it moves
generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Burn bans were in effect for Mt. Juliet, Lebanon and Robertson County amid the intense heat and brushfires. WKRN (Nashville, Tenn.), June 23, 2022

The Cookeville Fire Department will not issue burn permits as the weather was too hot and dry. Herald-Citizen (Cookeville, Tenn.), June 24, 2022

The flow of the Frio River in Concan has dropped to zero cubic feet per second, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. At Garner State Park visitors cannot enjoy tubing due to the low levels and can swim only in certain parts of the river. Garner State Park issued a park alert, urging park visitors to conserve water and to bring their own drinking water. The use of showers may be limited. Extremely low river flows can let the water stagnate, causing algae blooms or harmful bacteria, so people recreating should be careful in such areas of the Frio River. The water will be tested by the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality next week and the findings made available to the public. San Antonio Express-News (Texas), June 24, 2022

Prior Lake is lower than normal due to hot, dry weather. There is more beach than usual, and several parts of the lake are dangerously low, so boaters should avoid those spots. It’s dry in the Twin Cities, and the grass is brown. FOX 9 (Eden Prairie, Minn.), June 24, 2022

On the afternoon of June 23, 2022, a wildfire (River Fire) started approximately 6 miles Northeast from the City of Burkburnett. The fire was located in heavy brush, mesquite, and sandy terrain.The Burkburnett Fire Department (BFD) were on a small 4-acre fire on the Southeast side of town, as they were toned out to a larger fire on the opposite side of the city, to what it became known as the River Fire. BFD requested assistance from surrounding fire departments to include State resources from Texas A&M Forest Service (TAMFS), and Federal resources from Sheppard Air Force Base. TAMFS resources arrived and worked with BFD under a unified command.  The increasing temperatures are becoming more frequent, the vegetation is drying up making it more susceptible to igniting. As the small 4-acre fire (Lonely Fire), was controlled, BFD were toned out to a third fire (Green Fire), 5 miles Southwest of town, it was controlled at 7.5 acres. Please be mindful of the high temperatures, low...

The Western Montana All Hazards Incident Management Team is transitioning out and management of ongoing operations will move to county and local resources. Continuing information can be found at on the web: carbonalert.org/incidents and on Facebook: @CarbonAlert. The information phone and email will remain active and someone will respond to inquiries as soon as they can. Friday will be the last update on Inciweb. On June 12th, 2022, Rock Creek and the Clarks Fork of the Yellowstone experienced a historic flood. This resulted in significant bridge and road damage in Carbon County. Numerous homes have been impacted by the flood.  FEMA announced that federal disaster assistance has been made available to the state of Montana to supplement state and local recovery efforts in the areas affected by a severe storm and flooding from June 10, 2022 and continuing.  |Carbon Alert Incident Map|         |Volunteer Forms|          |Carbon Alert Facebook|         |Carbon Alert...

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z Added an Isolated Dry Thunderstorm delineation across the south-central Sierra. Morning forecast soundings and CAM guidance support the threat for isolated thunderstorm development. No changes were made to the ongoing IsoDryT area in northwest Arizona and southern Utah. Numerous storms are expected across north-central Arizona where fuels are also dry, but PWAT will be slightly higher across this region. Therefore, no scattered DryT area is needed. ..Bentley.. 06/24/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022/ ...Synopsis... Large-scale upper ridging will prevail across much of the central and southern CONUS as a weak mid-level trough traverses the interior West today. Some dry and breezy conditions may develop across the southern High Plains in association with surface lee troughing, but fuel receptiveness is expected to remain modest enough to temper more widespread wildfire growth. Monsoonal mid-level moisture will continue to meander across the Southwest into the Four Corners and foster isolated to potentially scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon. While storm motion will be slow, forecast soundings depict inverted-v profiles, where fuels are highly receptive to fire spread. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were added where the greatest chance of drier thunderstorms will overlap the most receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jun 24 16:37:01 UTC 2022.

No watches are valid as of Fri Jun 24 16:37:01 UTC 2022.

The Hog Spring fire transitioned from a type 4 Incident Management Team to a type 5 fire organization on June 23, with Incident Commander Jakob Gormally. The final update for this fire was published on June 24, 2022. This page will not be updated further unless conditions

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH DAKOTA...AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with the potential for widespread damaging wind gusts, very large hail, and a couple of tornadoes are expected from the eastern Dakotas into northwestern Minnesota this afternoon into tonight. ...ND/SD/MN... Morning water vapor imagery shows a broad upper trough across the northern Rockies today, with an embedded shortwave trough currently along the MT/WY border. This feature will track into the northern Plains later today, with large scale forcing for ascent overspreading parts of the Dakotas. Strong heating across eastern/central ND and convergence along a surface boundary will lead to afternoon thunderstorm development from south-central into northeast ND. Other storms will form by late afternoon to the north of the boundary across western/central ND as the upper trough approaches. Forecast soundings suggest strong instability (MLCAPE of 2500-4500 J/kg) and favorable effective shear for supercell storm structures capable of very large hail and perhaps a tornado or two. Storms are expected to develop southward along boundary into central SD during the evening, with gradual upscale growth into bowing line segments. This activity will spread into western MN with the risk of rather widespread damaging winds. ...Northeast WY/northwest SD... A consensus of 12z model guidance shows a cluster of afternoon thunderstorms forming over northeast WY and the Black Hills region. Moisture is more limited in this area, yielding MLCAPE values only into the 1000 J/kg range. However, steep lapse rates, cool temperatures aloft (-12C at 500mb), and 30-40 knots of westerly flow mid-level flow may result in a few supercells capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Southeast NE and vicinity... Morning convection has resulted in an outflow boundary extending from western MO into eastern KS. This boundary is forecast to drift northward toward the KS/NE border by late afternoon, with forecast soundings showing relatively large hodographs and strong instability - posing a conditional risk of severe storms. However, no 12z CAM guidance shows any thunderstorms forming in this area due to a relatively warm capping layer. Have therefore removed the SLGT, but continue to acknowledge the conditional risk of significant severe weather if a storm can initiate/persist. ...GA/FL... Numerous afternoon thunderstorms are expected from the FL peninsula into central GA. A hot, humid, and very unstable air mass is present in this corridor with dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s and MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg. Shear is weak, but multicell storms capable of locally strong/damaging wet microbursts appear possible. ..Hart/Jirak.. 06/24/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH DAKOTA...AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with the potential for widespread damaging wind gusts, very large hail, and a couple of tornadoes are expected from the eastern Dakotas into northwestern Minnesota this afternoon into tonight. ...ND/SD/MN... Morning water vapor imagery shows a broad upper trough across the northern Rockies today, with an embedded shortwave trough currently along the MT/WY border. This feature will track into the northern Plains later today, with large scale forcing for ascent overspreading parts of the Dakotas. Strong heating across eastern/central ND and convergence along a surface boundary will lead to afternoon thunderstorm development from south-central into northeast ND. Other storms will form by late afternoon to the north of the boundary across western/central ND as the upper trough approaches. Forecast soundings suggest strong instability (MLCAPE of 2500-4500 J/kg) and favorable effective shear for supercell storm structures capable of very large hail and perhaps a tornado or two. Storms are expected to develop southward along boundary into central SD during the evening, with gradual upscale growth into bowing line segments. This activity will spread into western MN with the risk of rather widespread damaging winds. ...Northeast WY/northwest SD... A consensus of 12z model guidance shows a cluster of afternoon thunderstorms forming over northeast WY and the Black Hills region. Moisture is more limited in this area, yielding MLCAPE values only into the 1000 J/kg range. However, steep lapse rates, cool temperatures aloft (-12C at 500mb), and 30-40 knots of westerly flow mid-level flow may result in a few supercells capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Southeast NE and vicinity... Morning convection has resulted in an outflow boundary extending from western MO into eastern KS. This boundary is forecast to drift northward toward the KS/NE border by late afternoon, with forecast soundings showing relatively large hodographs and strong instability - posing a conditional risk of severe storms. However, no 12z CAM guidance shows any thunderstorms forming in this area due to a relatively warm capping layer. Have therefore removed the SLGT, but continue to acknowledge the conditional risk of significant severe weather if a storm can initiate/persist. ...GA/FL... Numerous afternoon thunderstorms are expected from the FL peninsula into central GA. A hot, humid, and very unstable air mass is present in this corridor with dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s and MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg. Shear is weak, but multicell storms capable of locally strong/damaging wet microbursts appear possible. ..Hart/Jirak.. 06/24/2022 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 24 Jun 2022 14:40:59 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 24 Jun 2022 15:23:01 GMT

Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 241439 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 900 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022 Little by little, Celia is becoming better organized. Deep-layer shear has decreased markedly from a few days ago, but the cyclone still appears to be in the process of mixing out some of the dry air that got into the circulation. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates now range from 55 to 65 kt, therefore Celia's estimated intensity is increased to 55 kt on this advisory. Celia is moving slowly toward the west-northwest (290/7 kt) to the south of a mid-level ridge that stretches across the southern United States and northern Mexico. The ridge is not particularly strong, however, and this pattern is likely to cause Celia to slow down further to around 5 kt during the next 12-24 hours. After 24 hours, the ridge is expected to strengthen and expand westward, causing Celia to gradually accelerate through day 5. The guidance envelope is tightly packed, and the updated NHC track forecast is unchanged from the 09z forecast. Shear diagnoses from the SHIPS model indicate that deep-layer shear is likely to be less than 10 kt during the entire 5-day forecast period. However, the limiting factor to Celia's intensity will be sea surface temperatures. Celia still has an opportunity to strengthen further, possibly to a hurricane, during the next 24 hours or so before it begins to cross the tight SST gradient near Socorro Island. Gradual weakening is forecast after 36 hours over colder waters, and Celia is likely to lose its deep convection and become post-tropical by day 4. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 17.1N 109.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 17.4N 109.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 17.9N 110.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 18.5N 111.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 19.1N 113.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 27/0000Z 19.6N 115.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 20.2N 117.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 28/1200Z 21.5N 122.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 29/1200Z 22.4N 126.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 241439 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Celia Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 900 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022 ...CELIA STRONGER AND COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 109.0W ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM SE OF SOCORRO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Celia was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 109.0 West. Celia is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). Celia is forecast to slow down later today and tonight but then gradually accelerate on a west-northwestward course late Saturday into Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Celia could become a hurricane tonight or on Saturday. Weakening is expected to begin Saturday night or Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells are affecting portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the southern Baja California peninsula and the coast of west-central Mexico today and Saturday. These conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg