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Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 305 WTPZ42 KNHC 151457 TCDEP2 Hurricane Blas Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022 1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 Since the prior advisory, the structure of Blas has continued to improve on both conventional and microwave satellite imagery. In fact, several SSMIS microwave passes indicate that Blas is developing an inner core, with at least a banding mid-level eye feature showing up on the 89-GHz channel. The latest 1200 UTC subjective Dvorak estimates were T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and T4.0/65 kt from SAB. In addition, the most recent objective Dvorak estimates from UW-CIMSS have been quickly increasing with the latest estimate at T4.3/72 kt. A blend of the aforementioned data yields 65 kt for the advisory initial intensity, making Blas a hurricane. The center of Blas may have relocated a bit further south into the large overnight convective burst, but its mean motion this morning has continued a pronounced left turn, estimated at 290/4 kt. A continued west-northwest motion with some acceleration is anticipated over the next several days as the mid-level ridge poleward of the storm continues to build in and extend westward ahead of Blas. Towards the end of the forecast, Blas is expected to become a shallow system, resulting in a slowing westward motion as the low-level flow exerts greater influence. The latest forecast track has been adjusted a bit south in the short-term based on the adjusted initial position , but ends up just north of the previous forecast by the end of the period, close to the center of the track guidance envelope. The most recent microwave images suggest that Blas is developing an inner core, which would likely support further intensification today as the system remains over warm (28-29 C) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) embedded in sufficently high mid-level moisture. A possible complicating factor is that both the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance indicates easterly shear increasing to 20-25 kt over the next 24-36 h. Assuming this does not play a major inhibiting factor, the latest NHC forecast indicates continued intensification and peaks Blas as category 2 hurricane in 24 h. After 36 h, Blas will be crossing a sharp SST gradient, moving over sub 26 C waters by 60 h. For this reason, weakening is anticipated to begin by Friday. At the end of the forecast period, Blas is likely to lose its deep-convective activity and become a shallow low-level vortex. While Blas is expected to remain off the coast of Mexico, its associated swells are expected to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico beginning today and continuing through the end of the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 14.9N 102.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 15.3N 103.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 15.8N 104.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 16.5N 106.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 17.1N 108.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 18/0000Z 17.7N 110.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 18.2N 111.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 18.8N 114.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 20/1200Z 19.0N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 15 Jun 2022 14:55:58 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 15 Jun 2022 15:22:46 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUN 15 2022 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 151455 PWSEP2 HURRICANE BLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022022 1500 UTC WED JUN 15 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 105W 34 3 70(73) 4(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) 15N 105W 50 X 19(19) 6(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) 15N 105W 64 X 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) L CARDENAS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 8(19) 1(20) X(20) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 16(22) 2(24) X(24) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 41(48) 3(51) X(51) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 1(18) X(18) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) 3(21) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 4(16) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 151454 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Blas Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022 1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 ...BLAS QUICKLY STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 102.8W ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Blas was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 102.8 West. Blas is now moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next several days with gradual acceleration. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours followed by gradual weakening by the end of the week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Blas are expected to reach the coast of southwestern Mexico later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

...BLAS QUICKLY STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE... As of 10:00 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 the center of Blas was located near 14.9, -102.8 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUN 15 2022 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 151453 TCMEP2 HURRICANE BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022022 1500 UTC WED JUN 15 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 102.8W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 0SE 10SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 102.8W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 102.7W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.3N 103.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.8N 104.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.5N 106.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.1N 108.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.7N 110.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.2N 111.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 0SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 18.8N 114.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 19.0N 116.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 102.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

No watches are valid as of Wed Jun 15 13:48:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jun 15 13:48:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected today across parts of the Upper Midwest into Upper Michigan. Several tornadoes, large to very large hail, and damaging winds all appear likely. Some of the tornadoes could be strong. ...Upper Midwest... Morning surface analysis shows a precipitation-reinforced boundary extending from central IA into WI. This boundary will move only slightly northward this afternoon as a strong shortwave trough currently over CO approaches. Increasing low-level winds and cyclogenesis along the boundary will lead to thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon from western WI into northeast IA. High and mid clouds will limit heating somewhat. However, dewpoints in the lower 70s and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield MLCAPE values of 3000+ J/kg. Strong deep-layer shear and large hodographs will promote supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes (some strong) during the first several hours of the event. It is not clear how long activity will remain discrete before upscale organization occurs, with an increasing risk of damaging winds. Storms will move into Lower MI after dark, with a continued risk of locally damaging wind gusts. ...Southeast States... A hot and humid low-level air mass will be present today from the Carolinas southwestward into MS/AL, with widespread temperatures in the 90s and dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s. This will result in MLCAPE values over 2000 J/kg and steep low-level lapse rates throughout the region. The details of the timing and location of convective development is uncertain this morning, but at least isolated thunderstorms are expected throughout the area. Sufficiently strong northeasterly flow aloft will aid in southwestward-propagating clusters capable of strong/damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Mosier.. 06/15/2022 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151139
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Jun 15 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Blas, located a few hundred miles south of the southwest coast
of Mexico.

Off the coast of Central America:
A large area of showers and thunderstorms off the coast of Guatemala
and El Salvador are associated with a trough of low pressure.
Gradual development of this system is possible while it drifts
erratically, and it could become a tropical depression during the
next couple of days. Environmental conditions are forecast to
become less conducive for development by this weekend. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rains are possible across portions of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next several
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

 On Wednesday, June 8, 2022, the Coronado National Forest responded to a new start at approximately 7:15 PM in the Peloncillo Mountains, Douglas Ranger District.   The Deer Creek Fire has transitioned back to a local Type 4 Team from the Douglas Ranger District lead by Incident Commander Carlos Torres. The fire has remained within its footprint at 1,042 acres and is now 85% contained. . Moving forward, crews will continue mopping up and monitoring firelines. The fire is currently not threatening any structures or other resource values.  The Team remains ready to respond to Initial Attack (IA) efforts in the Peloncillo

As drought continues to drive the level of Lake Powell lower, the likelihood of invasive smallmouth bass crossing the Glen Canyon Dam increases, where the bass would be a threat to endangered fish in the Grand Canyon. Smallmouth bass prefer warm water and stay in the upper part of the water column, which is coming increasingly nearer to the intakes, which would transfer them to the river below. The problem with the bass becoming established below the dam is that the fish are thought to have decimated the humpback chub populations in the upper basin and would likely do the same with endangered fish below Glen Canyon Dam. Biologists are considering different ways of keeping the bass above the dam, but do not have any easy way of doing so. The Aspen Times (Colo.), June 13, 2022

Drought has led numerous growers in California to tear out orchards or vineyards because they do not have enough water or want to grow something else that needs less water. The cheapest way to get rid of the agricultural waste is to burn it, which many growers do rather than having the waste ground into mulch. The practice of burning agricultural waste has harmed air quality in the San Joaquin Valley, due to drought with more farmers burning and also due to the geography of the area that does not easily allow air pollution to escape. Los Angeles Times (Calif.), June 11, 2022

Drought prompted officials in Comal and Guadalupe counties to enact burn bans. New Braunfels Herald-Zeitung (Texas), June 13, 2022

No watches are valid as of Tue Jun 14 15:37:02 UTC 2022.

MD 1164 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL GA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SC
Mesoscale Discussion 1164 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022 Areas affected...portions of east-central GA into central/southern SC Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 141521Z - 141615Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Locally strong wind gusts are possible into early afternoon across portions of central/southern SC and eastern GA. DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms are developing late this morning in a very moist and unstable environment in the vicinity of an outflow boundary from overnight convection. Regional 12z RAOBs and forecast soundings, in addition to recent mesoanalysis data, indicate some inhibition is still likely impacting the MCD area, but with continued heating this should erode over the next 1-2 hours. Surface dewpoints are generally in the 73-77 F range, supporting a corridor of strong MLCAPE with southward extent despite modest midlevel lapse rates. This strong instability will support initially robust thunderstorm updrafts. However, the region will remain under very weak vertical shear on the eastern periphery of the 500 mb ridge axis/upper anticyclone. This will ultimately limit longevity of intense updrafts and organized cells. However, if a strong enough cold pool can be generated, some forward propagation and organization of thunderstorm clusters could occur, with an attendant increase for locally damaging gusts. While a watch is not expected in the short-term, convective trends will be monitored. ..Leitman/Guyer.. 06/14/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC... LAT...LON 33858016 33298009 32938025 32638065 32428125 32358190 32348256 32508322 32838362 33228376 33598357 33808334 34008310 34098298 34208261 34318135 34318071 34198032 33858016 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 14 Jun 2022 14:59:39 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 14 Jun 2022 15:23:55 GMT

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022 752 WTPZ42 KNHC 141458 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022 1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022 Satellite images indicate that the tropical cyclone southwest of Mexico continues to become better organized, with plenty of banding in the eastern semicircle and increased central deep convection. Dvorak estmates have increased to 35-45 kt, and the initial wind speed is raised to 40 kt, making this system the second tropical storm of the season. The environment near Blas looks conducive for further intensification during the next couple of days, with very warm waters and generally light shear. However, increased northeasterly shear is likely to begin on Thursday due to a building upper-level anticyclone over Mexico. Model guidance is higher than the last cycle, mostly due to the initial wind speed, and the NHC intensity forecast matches that trend. Weakening should commence by the end of the week due to stronger shear and cooler waters. Blas is drifting northward, caught in an area of light steering beneath a distant mid-tropospheric low over northern Mexico. The tropical cyclone should move little today and then start moving to the west-northwest at a faster pace due to the low moving out and a ridge building over Mexico. This motion should take the system gradually away from southwestern Mexico later in the week. Similar to the last cycle, although there is some spread in the models, especially in terms of forward speed, they generally agree on the overall scenario. This track forecast lies near the various consensus aids, a bit north of the last NHC track forecast. Even though the system is forecast to remain well off the coast of Mexico, the associated swells are expected to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico in a day or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 13.9N 102.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 14.2N 102.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 14.6N 102.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 14.9N 103.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 15.4N 104.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 17/0000Z 16.0N 106.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 16.6N 108.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 17.9N 111.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 18.5N 114.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake/Bucci