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WW 319 SEVERE TSTM AR OK 071300Z - 071900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 319 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 800 AM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest to west-central Arkansas Southeast Oklahoma * Effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 800 AM until 200 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Developing MCS is likely to forward propagate eastward across southeast Oklahoma into parts of western Arkansas through early afternoon. Damaging winds will be the main hazard with some hail possible as well. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 70 miles west of Mcalester OK to 55 miles east northeast of De Queen AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Grams Read more

WW 320 SEVERE TSTM AR LA TX 071420Z - 072000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 320 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 920 AM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Arkansas Northwest Louisiana Northeast Texas * Effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 920 AM until 300 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A line of severe thunderstorms continues to move southeastward across southeast OK. Expectation is for this line to continue into portions of northeast TX, southwest AR, and northwest LA over the next few hours. Damaging wind gusts are the primary hazard with this line, but some hail is possible as well. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles east northeast of Paris TX to 30 miles east of Shreveport LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 319... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30040. ...Mosier/Guyer Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Tue Jun 07 2022 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NE TO NORTHERN KS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OK TO WESTERN TN... ...SUMMARY... Significant severe thunderstorms are most likely across parts of the central Great Plains during the late afternoon and evening. Very large hail and destructive wind gusts are possible. ...NE and northern KS vicinity... A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will eject east into SD/NE by evening. A belt of 50-60 kt 500-mb westerlies to the south of this wave will likely intensify to 70-80 kt over NE by 06Z. A lee surface trough will remain anchored along the I-25 corridor in CO with a separate low near the CO/KS/NE border, with a west/east-oriented portion of the surface front across southern NE. Large-scale ascent through a combination of mid-level height falls and weak upslope flow will aid in scattered thunderstorms forming by early afternoon across eastern WY and spreading into the NE Panhandle. Additional storms will likely along the baroclinic zone eastward across NE during the late afternoon, while more isolated storms developing across eastern CO. With effective bulk shear strengthening to in excess of 60 kts, a highly elongated and nearly straight-line mid/upper hodograph will favor numerous supercells and both left/right splits. The main uncertainty is with the degree of buoyancy in this region given current presence of mid 50s to low 60s surface dew points. It does appear that moderate boundary-layer heating south/west of the surface front amid steep mid-level lapse rates should support MLCAPE increasing to 1000-2000 J/kg. This will likely be sufficient for significant severe hail as the primary initial hazard. During the evening, consolidating cells will likely grow upscale into an MCS across southern NE into northern KS. The degree of shear and synoptic pattern would favor a potential derecho with bowing linear segments and significant severe wind gusts in excess of 80 mph, which is most supported by the 00Z HRW-ARW. However, both the 06Z NAM/09Z RAP and recent HRRR runs suggest that a buoyancy donut may linger across parts of central/eastern KS in the wake of recently decayed convection across southern KS and a deeper cluster in central to eastern OK. This renders enough thermodynamic uncertainty in cold pool intensity tonight to preclude an upgrade to cat 4/MDT-risk. ...South-central High Plains into OK... Mid to late afternoon thunderstorm development appears probable off the Sangre de Cristos and Raton Mesa vicinity, which will likely include a few supercells given 30-40 kt 500-mb westerlies. Confidence is low in subsequent evolution eastward across the Panhandles and southwest KS this evening into tonight. A substantial frontal surge has occurred into the TX South Plains. Although modification will occur, it is plausible that the boundary-layer over the Panhandles will remain well capped beneath a stout EML. Ascent from the LLJ will mainly be focused across western to central OK, which might support some uptick in isolated severe potential overnight. ...Eastern OK to Western TN... A slow-moving but deep convective cluster is ongoing across south-central OK in association with a lead frontal surge. Evening to overnight CAM guidance is quite varied in how this activity will evolve. If a surface cold pool can become established the threat for strong to severe wind gusts will increase prior to peak diurnal heating. Otherwise, if convection weakens for a time as low-level warm theta-e advection subsides, remnants of it would potentially restrengthen this afternoon in the Mid-South. ...OH to western NY... Stratiform rain occurring from the Lower Great Lakes to the Cumberland Plateau within a pronounced low-level jet is expected to translate northeast across the northern Appalachians into this afternoon. Most guidance suggests in the wake of this activity isolated to scattered moderate-topped thunderstorms may develop along the surface cold front. Low-level winds will weaken/become veered ahead of the front, suggesting that isolated damaging winds and small to marginally severe hail will be the primary hazards. ..Grams/Broyles.. 06/07/2022 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071136
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Jun 7 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Fuel contamination in the Navy’s Pearl Harbor water distribution system affects Oahu’s water supply. More restrictions may be needed if the dry weather continues. Salinity is rising in the Beretania Well in Honolulu as pumping has increased after the utility shut down the Halawa Shaft for fear of fuel contamination from Red Hill. The dry weather has also contributed to the rising salt level. The public is urged to voluntarily reduce water use by 10%. Hawaii Public Radio (Honolulu), March 22, 2022

As of the afternoon of June 6, 2022, ignitions are complete on the 2022 Ash Mountain Prescribed Burn in Sequoia National Park. In all, approximately 15 acres between the Sequoia National Park entrance station and the Foothills Visitor Center, one mile inside the park were treated. Additional acres will be treated manually through the grazing of the parks’ stock animals or through weed eating. “Completing this annual prescribed burn by removing this highly flammable and invasive grass now ensures our parks’ historic assets and infrastructure are protected from an unwanted wildfire during the peak of the fire year this summer,” said Battalion Chief Cristian Lopez, Ash Mountain Burn Boss. Visitors to the parks may see fire effects along the Generals Highway between the Sequoia National Park Entrance Station and the Foothills Visitor Center and are asked to exercise caution near recently burned areas, as embers and hot spots can persist after active fire has stopped. Light smoke...

The Nevada Irrigation District enacted fire use restrictions effective June 7 for foothill recreational facilities owned and operated by the district. Drought, dry conditions and rising temperatures were reasons that campfires will be disallowed in developed campgrounds around Stotts Flat Reservoir and Rollins Reservoir. YubaNet.com (Nevada City, Calif.), June 6, 2022

Prolonged drought in West Texas and northern Mexico are cause for concern regarding reservoir storage levels on the Rio Grande River. Amistad and Falcon reservoirs, which store water for municipal use and irrigation, are at a combined capacity of 27.32%. Amistad is presently at 38.4% of capacity, down from 51.7% a year ago. Similarly, Falcon is at 19.3% of capacity, down from 26.0% a year ago. In the Big Bend area, the Rio Grande River was completely dry at the monitoring station at Johnson Ranch. In New Mexico, the Rio Grande is also expected to run dry in the middle valley, according to the chief engineer for the Middle Rio Grande Conservancy District. MyRGV.com (McAllen, Texas), June 5, 2022

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CDT Mon Jun 06 2022 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no additions or changes made. ..Squitieri.. 06/06/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Mon Jun 06 2022/ ...Synopsis... Above normal temperatures across the Southwest will result in widespread 10-15 percent RH during the afternoon, though weak deep-layer flow should generally mitigate any significant wildfire-spread threat. However, fuels remain critically dry across the region, and spotty elevated conditions will be possible where locally breezy surface winds overlap the low RH and dry fuel beds. Over the central Rockies and Colorado Front Range, isolated dry thunderstorm development will be possible during the afternoon, though fuels are generally less receptive across this region -- precluding highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Jun 6 15:37:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Jun 6 15:37:01 UTC 2022.

The Cinnamon Fire is located on private land near Brushy Creek, NM in Hidalgo County. The Fire was first reported at midnight on May 24, 2022 south of Lordsburg. No structures are threatened and there are no evacuations in place. The fire is burning in brush and grass type fuels in New Mexico's Bootheel

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Mon Jun 06 2022 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Ohio Valley to Mid-South this afternoon and evening. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also possible from the Black Hills vicinity to the central Great Plains and south-central High Plains this afternoon and evening. ...Mid-South and Lower OH Valley... A weakening MCS is ongoing from southwest MO to western/central AR. Boundary-layer heating ahead of this MCS will likely aid in an uptick in thunderstorm intensity towards midday near the MS Valley with updrafts along the leading edge of the convective outflow. While the bulk of stronger flow attendant to the MCV should lag behind this initial activity, sufficient deep-layer shear should exist for multicell clusters propagating across the Lower OH Valley. Scattered damaging winds should be the primary hazard. In the wake of this round, most guidance indicates that convective redevelopment will occur atop the trailing outflow boundary across parts of the Mid-South during the late afternoon to early evening. With the eastern periphery of the southern Great Plains EML impinging on this region and differential boundary-layer heating, a pronounced gradient in MLCAPE should become established. Amid a belt of enhanced mid-level northwesterlies to the southwest of the MCV and adequate 0-3 km SRH, wind profiles would conditionally favor semi-discrete supercell clusters. However, given the early-period convection, there is low confidence in just how much overlap will occur between favorable thermodynamic and kinematic parameters. As such, have deferred on potential upgrades to tornado and hail probabilities. An isolated severe threat may linger into tonight as clusters encroach on the TN Valley. ...Northern High Plains and Black Hills to central NE... A low-amplitude shortwave impulse over the northern Rockies will move east into the Dakotas by evening. Attendant belt of 50-60 kt 500-mb westerlies will similarly translate east to the south of this impulse. This will aid in highly elongated, straight-line hodographs later this afternoon into the evening. Initial thunderstorm development is expected across southeast MT and northeast WY during the early afternoon and across the Black Hills by mid-afternoon. Buoyancy will initially be weak, but convection should impinge on the northwest extent of modest MLCAPE from 1000-1500 J/kg emanating from southern NE. Most CAMs suggest potential for a couple long-tracked supercells in this regime with large hail as the main hazard. How large is somewhat uncertain given the modest buoyancy and moderate mid-level lapse rates. But the very favorable wind profiles and convective mode support a threat for significant severe hail. ...South-central High Plains... Ample high-based convective development is expected off the southern Rockies this afternoon. This activity will intensify during the early evening as it impinges on a pronounced MLCAPE gradient across the Panhandles into western KS. Initially weak low-level shear, high-based storms, and slightly warmer 500-mb temperatures all suggest that convective intensity should be somewhat lower relative to recent days. Still, adequate deep-layer shear will exist for a few supercells to emerge during the evening with a threat for severe hail and wind. ...FL and southeast GA... A low-amplitude mid-level trough over the northeast Gulf will drift east today. This feature will aid in a pocket of -10 C 500-mb temperatures across north FL and southeast GA this afternoon. As MLCAPE reaches 1500-2000 J/kg, scattered thunderstorms should develop along the sea breezes. While lower-level flow will be quite weak, 25-40 kt effective bulk shear will support mid-level updraft rotation. Isolated severe hail and locally damaging wind gusts are possible. ..Grams/Broyles.. 06/06/2022 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061102
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jun 6 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

As Klamath County endures a third year of drought, hundreds of residential wells have run dry. The recent winter did not provide enough snow and rain to recharge the dry wells, leaving people still relying on the state to provide funds for trucking in water. The emergency response began in July 2021 and continues. Oregon Public Broadcasting (Portland), June 6, 2022 Increased groundwater pumping in the Klamath Basin since late summer 2021 through early April 2022 has resulted in hundreds of domestic wells running dry. Associated Press News (New York), April 11, 2022 There were 84 dry wells registered in Klamath County in July. One month later, there were 185 dry wells between the California state line and Crescent and La Pine, but there are likely more. When people register their dry wells with the watermaster, they receive water storage tanks and water deliveries from the state. The groundwater level in the Klamath Basin has fallen by 30 feet since 2001 and is expected to drop another 40 to 50 feet after this season. The Oregonian (Portland), Aug 10, 2021

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CDT Sun Jun 05 2022 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z Surface temperatures will climb into the uppers 80s/lower 90s F, with RH dropping below 15 percent on a widespread basis across eastern Arizona into New Mexico and southwest Texas this afternoon given sunny skies and diurnal boundary-layer mixing. The latest high-resolution guidance consensus depicts 15+ mph sustained westerly winds developing as far north as central New Mexico, warranting a northward expansion of Elevated highlights. Elevated to locally Critical conditions are still expected across southern New Mexico into southwest Texas by afternoon peak heating, particularly in terrain-favoring locations. Otherwise, dry and breezy northeasterly flow across the Carolinas will promote localized wildfire-spread concerns later this afternoon wherever gusty conditions and drier fuel beds overlap. ..Squitieri.. 06/05/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sun Jun 05 2022/ ...Synopsis... Deep westerly flow will continue across the Southwest, where a dry airmass remains in place. Farther east, dry/breezy northeasterly low-level flow will overspread the Carolinas on the backside of a tropical system traversing the western Atlantic. ...Southwest... As temperatures climb into the 90s to near 100 F, widespread 10-15 percent RH will develop during the afternoon. While the surface pressure gradient will generally be weak, modestly enhanced westerly flow within the deepening boundary layer will support 15 mph westerly surface winds amid the low RH. This could result in elevated fire-weather conditions over southeast AZ, southern NM, and the western TX Trans-Pecos -- where fuels are critically dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Jun 5 15:34:02 UTC 2022.