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No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jun 5 15:34:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0720 AM CDT Sun Jun 05 2022 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WESTERN NE TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL OK... ...SUMMARY... Significant severe thunderstorms producing very large hail, intense damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible across parts of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska from late afternoon through tonight. ...OK/KS/NE... Although alluded to as a possibility in the 06Z outlook, confidence is too low to warrant an upgrade to a cat 4/MDT risk. Worst-case scenario could still support a derecho occurring this evening into the overnight somewhere in the region. A progressive MCS, which produced mainly strong wind gusts and a few measured severe early this morning, continues across far southeast KS and north-central to northeast OK. This MCS has not been terribly well-simulated by most CAM guidance, with the 00Z HRW-NSSL closest to reality. It's MCV will seemingly shift into the Ozark Plateau. Deep convection along its southwest flank may not entirely decay as low-level warm theta-e advection persists atop the convective outflow, a scenario supported by the HRW-NSSL. A farther south evolution of convective outflow would clearly suppress destabilization in eastern OK that is advertised by the bulk of guidance. Regardless of where convective outflow ultimately ends up, a very unstable air mass is expected to its west centered on western OK. Very steep mid-level lapse rates of 8.5-9 C/km will overspread upper 60s boundary-layer dew points to yield large buoyancy with MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg. Modified air mass recovery is expected in the wake of the outflow across western parts of KS/NE. Guidance differs substantially with the degree of convective development near the outflow/dryline intersection centered around northwest OK. The HRW-NSSL, 00Z HRW-ARW, and 06Z NAM-NEST all suggest convection will develop around early evening near this intersection and along the cool side of the remnant outflow boundary into south-central KS as the low-level jet intensifies. This scenario would yield quick upscale growth and probable forward propagation south-southeast along the MLCAPE gradient. The 06Z HRRR and subsequent runs indicate no sustained deep convection occurring in the OK/KS border area during this time frame, despite having uncapped forecast soundings. The overall intensity and coverage of the severe threat with southern/eastern extent in OK will be modulated based on how far south/west this morning's MCS affects instability, and whether an MCS can develop during the evening versus overnight. A more probable convective signal exists along the lee trough/dryline across western NE to the KS/CO border. Robust boundary-layer heating to the west of the dryline will remove MLCIN for late afternoon scattered thunderstorm development. Several initial supercells in this regime will have the potential for significant severe hail given such steep mid-level lapse rates. Consolidating cold pools will likely yield upscale growth into a maturing MCS towards south-central NE and central KS during the evening. The overall intensity/coverage of the severe wind threat with this MCS will be modulated by whether a separate MCS will be simultaneously ongoing in far southern KS and OK. If the latter does not develop, a more favorable regime for significant severe wind gusts would be possible across central KS and then shifting into northern OK overnight. ...Interior Northwest... Within the left exit region of an intense upper jet centered on northern CA and southern OR, scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon from eastern OR across ID into a portion of western MT. Elongated, straight-line hodographs will encourage a few splitting supercells. However, buoyancy will likely remain weak with moderate mid-level lapse rates and below-normal surface temperatures. This suggests that isolated severe hail will be the primary hazard, with locally strong wind gusts a secondary threat. ..Grams/Broyles.. 06/05/2022 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 051126
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Jun 5 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

No watches are valid as of Sat Jun 4 13:30:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jun 4 13:30:02 UTC 2022.

 he  Foster Fire was reported on May 29, 2022, at 12:53 PM in the Peloncillo Mountains, Douglas Ranger District, Coronado National Forest. The fire is about 22 miles south of Rodeo, New Mexico.   Late in the evening on May 29th a Type 3 Incident Command Team lead by Incident Commander Chad Rice assumed command of the fire.      The Foster Fire official acreage is at 7,598 with containment remaining at 82%. Resources have continued to be released and all have been reassigned to different incidents. Today  the incident will be transferred to a local Douglas Ranger District Type 4 Team and the remaining off district resources will be reassigned. The fire is currently not threatening any structures or other resource values. Aviation / Drone Restrictions: The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has issued Temporary Flight Restriction (TFR) and any private aircraft or drone that violates the TFR could face serious criminal charges. For more information on drones the...

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Sat Jun 04 2022 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TO THE TX PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across the central Great Plains to the Texas Panhandle, mainly in the late afternoon and evening. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes are possible. ...Central Great Plains... In the wake of an MCV drifting east over central KS, 50s to low 60s surface dew points remain pervasive from the southern High Plains into western KS. As a plume of very steep mid-level lapse rates sampled by the 12Z Denver sounding spreads east, a swath of moderate to large buoyancy with MLCAPE from 1500-3000 J/kg will develop at peak heating. Initially isolated thunderstorm development is expected along the lee trough in eastern CO and along a quasi-stationary front bisecting NE during the late afternoon. Convective coverage will likely increase in the early evening as additional cells form along the front and towards the front/lee trough intersection. While mid to upper flow won't be particularly strong, a west-northwesterly directional component will aid in effective bulk shear of 30-40 kts. This will be adequate for a few supercells capable of producing significant severe hail. Consolidating convective outflows may eventually yield clusters progressing southeast through tonight across western/central KS with an attendant severe wind threat. Have expanded the cat 2/SLGT risk to account for this scenario. ...Southern High Plains... Decaying convection is ongoing from south-central TX westward towards the Pecos Valley. This activity should further decay through midday. The dryline will sharpen this afternoon along the I-27 corridor to the Lower Pecos Valley. Convective development appears most probable in the Big Bend region where terrain influence will aid in sustaining updrafts. Guidance is quite varied in the degree of convective development farther north along the dryline as a weak upper trough passes across it around 21Z. Have expanded the cat 2/SLGT risk for now at least into the Panhandles given a conditional supercell threat capable of significant severe hail. ...Southeast FL... Deep convection persists across southwest FL near a tropical disturbance, while convection that occurred over many hours along the southeast FL coast has largely shifted offshore. Surface to low-level wind fields have consistently veered with time per time-series of Key West VWP data and surface obs across the Keys. Increasingly veered low-level flow has recently reach the Miami VWP and was sampled by the 12Z sounding. It appears less likely that robust deep convection will be coincident with more favorable low-level hodograph curvature for mesocyclone formation. But where surface winds can remain backed, a weak brief tornado is still possible through midday. ..Grams/Broyles.. 06/04/2022 Read more

746
ABPZ20 KNHC 041120
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Jun 4 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Roberts

The Tunnel Fire was marked fully contained Wednesday, June

 The Plumtaw fire was first reported at around 1pm on May 17th roughly 7 miles north of the town of Pagosa Springs, Colorado. The fire was mapped at 727 acres on Thursday afternoon, which shows a reduction in acreage based on more accurate mapping. Fire personnel have focused efforts on the northeast corner near Fourmile Road (NFSR 634), protecting the Fourmile Creek watershed and Lost Valley Subdivision and keeping the fire north of Plumtaw Road (NFSR 634). The fire is burning in Ponderosa pine, Gambel oak, and mixed conifer.Stage 1 fire restrictions are in effect on the San Juan National Forest and other area lands. See the "Announcements" tab for more information.The Plumtaw Fire is scheduled to transition back to the local unit on Thursday, June 2.With no recent lightning, the cause of the Plumtaw fire is under

People of Massachusetts were reminded by the Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency Acting Director that they can mitigate drought impacts by limiting water use and being careful about the increasing fire danger outdoors. Boston Herald (Mass.), June 2, 2022

Excessive water users in Calabasas can get a little help with conservation from the Las Virgenes Municipal Water District through the installation of a flow restrictor. The district began installing them on June 1, after warning customers about their water use and seeing the flagrant use continue. The district intended to install 20 restrictors on June 1, but most customers decided that they were more committed to water conservation than they previously realized and would use less water. The district leaves the flow restrictor in place for two weeks. If the customer tries to remove the restrictor, they will be fined $2,500. ABC 30 Action News (Fresno, Calif.), June 3, 2022

No watches are valid as of Fri Jun 3 12:56:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jun 3 12:56:01 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0704 AM CDT Fri Jun 03 2022 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR SOUTH FL AND THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible beginning this evening across the Florida Keys and continuing overnight into tomorrow morning across far south Florida. Scattered large hail (some of which may be significant), damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes are possible across the southern to central High Plains beginning in the mid-afternoon. ...South FL... A developing tropical cyclone east of the Yucatan is forecast by NHC to move northeast towards the offshore waters near the southwest FL coast by 12Z tomorrow. Intensifying low-level winds and increasing hodograph curvature are expected to initially overspread the Keys later this evening and across the south FL peninsula overnight into tomorrow morning. Deep convective bands should similarly spread across these regions amid advection of mid 70s surface dew points. Some HREF members are quite prolific with the number of rotating updrafts in this regime. As such, an upgrade to cat 2/SLGT-risk appears warranted. However per NHC discussion, given that a center has not yet formed, it's entirely possible that the suite of models could shift south on subsequent cycles if a center forms farther south than currently forecast. This would limit the northern extent of the tornado threat in FL. ...Southern High Plains to central/east TX... Remnants of a non-severe MCS in the TX Big Country/Concho Valley will probably spread east-southeast across parts of central into east TX through this afternoon. Some intensification of convective downdrafts is possible towards midday as downstream boundary-layer heating supports modest surface-based destabilization. Overall CAPE/shear parameter space appears rather marginal for a more organized damaging wind threat. With a ribbon of upper 50s to low 60s surface dew points persisting to the south and north of the overnight MCS track, scattered thunderstorm development will occur once again this afternoon off the higher terrain from the Sangre de Cristos to the Trans-Pecos. Very steep mid-level lapse rates will support a broadening plume of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE amid 30-40 kt effective bulk shear. Several supercells will likely develop, some of which may produce golf to tennis ball size hail. An intensifying low-level jet this evening could support a few hour window for tornado potential, but convection will likely grow upscale into a couple MCSs from the Panhandles to the Permian Basin with an attendant severe wind threat. This threat will diminish overnight, but a weakening MCS should linger longest across portions of west-central TX. ...Central High Plains... Persistent southerly low-level flow will aid in poleward moisture advection and increasing MLCAPE at peak heating. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms developing east off the Front Range will impinge on the instability axis and intensify by late afternoon. Both buoyancy and deep-layer shear are expected to be somewhat less favorable relative to the southern High Plains. Most CAMs suggest transient supercell structures and multicell clusters should tend to dominate, which may yield a somewhat lesser intensity threat relative to farther south. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains... Within the northern belt of moderate mid-level westerlies occurring amid a low-amplitude ridge, deep-layer wind profiles will support a conditional threat for a few supercells as afternoon convection spreads east off the higher terrain. However, much of the region lacks appreciable low-level moisture at present with mid 30s to mid 40s surface dew points common. While further moistening will occur by this afternoon, a marginal CAPE/instability combo should support only an isolated severe hail/wind threat. ...Carolinas and GA... A slow-moving surface cold front and the sea breeze will be the focus for isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be weak, although relatively greater across parts of the Carolinas. Loosely organized multicell clusters should dominate with some threat for locally damaging winds. ..Grams/Broyles.. 06/03/2022 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031125
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jun 3 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Bucci

Fire restrictions took effect for parts of southeast Utah on June 2, due to prolonged drought and extremely dry vegetation. Restrictions take effect on state lands and unincorporated private lands in Grand and San Juan counties; Bureau of Land Management Moab and Monticello field office areas located in Grand and San Juan counties; National Park Service including Canyonlands and Arches national parks, and Natural Bridges and Hovenweep national monuments; and U.S. Forest Service Moab and Monticello ranger districts of the Manti-La Sal National Forest, areas within Grand and San Juan counties in Utah, and Mesa and Montrose counties in Colorado. Campfires, smoking outdoors and other activities are prohibited. The Times-Independent (Moab, Utah), May 27, 2022

Drought in Kansas has farmers concerned that lower winter wheat production will barely cover input costs. Crop experts anticipate the yield to fall by more than 100 million bushels from 2021, which would be worth more than $1.2 billion at present commodity prices. Drought hurt wheat in the western part of the state most as precipitation was lowest there. Recent rain may help finish filling out wheat berries, but will not help the wheat crop much. The Kansas Wheat Tour projects a harvest of 261 million bushels of wheat from an estimated 7.4 million acres of planted wheat last fall. The average yield is expected to be 39.7 bushels per acre, with a higher-than-normal abandonment rate of 11%. In 2021, Kansas’ average yield was 52 bushels per acre with a production of 364 million bushels for the most produced in any state. A projected drop in yield of 103 million bushels from last year's figure, at $12 a bushel for hard red winter wheat, would be more than $1.2 billion in lost production. The Topeka Capital-Journal (Kan.), June 2, 2022 Kansas wheat is expected to yield less than it would have with normal precipitation, but high commodity prices still give farmers hope. The western part of the state in particular went months without much rain. A wheat grower in Harvey County stated that prolonged drought kept his wheat from growing to its potential. KWCH 12 (Wichita, Kan.), June 2, 2022

Unusually dry, warm, windy weather in New Mexico amid overgrown, drought-stricken forests has been conducive to wildfires this spring with more than 600,000 acres up in smoke. The biggest and most destructive fire is the Hermits Peak Calf Canyon fire, which began nearly two months ago, and has charred 315,000 acres near Las Vegas. Two separate prescribed burns escaped containment and merged to become this megafire. Strong winds up to 80 miles an hour drove the flames and prevented firefighting planes and helicopters from aiding in the fight. This conflagration is the largest in the U.S. and the largest ever recorded in New Mexico. The Black fire in Gila National Forest grew rapidly mid-May and became the second largest fire burning in New Mexico. The New York Times, June 1, 2022 New Mexico has at least ten large fires burning. In the north are the Hermits Peak fire that has charred 65,000 acres and the nearby Cooks Peak Fire that burned nearly 56,000 acres. Both blazes are less than 50% contained. The McBride Fire, which consumed over 6,000 acres and more than 200 homes in the Ruidoso area, was still smoldering in the Lincoln National Forest in Lincoln County. Carlsbad Current Argus (N.M.), April 29, 2022