SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 649

5 years 8 months ago
WW 649 SEVERE TSTM OK 121955Z - 130300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 649 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 255 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Oklahoma * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 255 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forming along a cold front extending across northern Oklahoma. Hot/humid conditions along and south of the front will result in strong to damaging wind gusts in the most intense cells. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles northwest of Clinton OK to 45 miles east northeast of Tulsa OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 648... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28025. ...Hart Read more

SPC Sep 13, 2019 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

5 years 8 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0731 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be concentrated across portions of southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois this evening. Other strong storms, with isolated severe wind gusts, will be noted from southeast Kansas - Oklahoma - Texas South Plains. ...01z Update... Strong short-wave trough is ejecting across the eastern Dakotas/Nebraska and will approach the upper Great Lakes region later tonight. Large-scale forcing for ascent is expected to influence ongoing convection currently located across WI - trailing into eastern IA. This activity should spread east over the next few hours with an attendant threat for mainly isolated severe wind gusts. Farther southwest, strong boundary-layer heating contributed to substantial buoyancy which led to thunderstorm development along the trailing wind shift across KS - northwest OK - southern TX Panhandle region. This activity is expected to propagate slowly southeast this evening and locally damaging winds will be the main threat. ..Darrow.. 09/13/2019 Read more

SPC Sep 13, 2019 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

5 years 8 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0731 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be concentrated across portions of southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois this evening. Other strong storms, with isolated severe wind gusts, will be noted from southeast Kansas - Oklahoma - Texas South Plains. ...01z Update... Strong short-wave trough is ejecting across the eastern Dakotas/Nebraska and will approach the upper Great Lakes region later tonight. Large-scale forcing for ascent is expected to influence ongoing convection currently located across WI - trailing into eastern IA. This activity should spread east over the next few hours with an attendant threat for mainly isolated severe wind gusts. Farther southwest, strong boundary-layer heating contributed to substantial buoyancy which led to thunderstorm development along the trailing wind shift across KS - northwest OK - southern TX Panhandle region. This activity is expected to propagate slowly southeast this evening and locally damaging winds will be the main threat. ..Darrow.. 09/13/2019 Read more

SPC Sep 13, 2019 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

5 years 8 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0731 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be concentrated across portions of southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois this evening. Other strong storms, with isolated severe wind gusts, will be noted from southeast Kansas - Oklahoma - Texas South Plains. ...01z Update... Strong short-wave trough is ejecting across the eastern Dakotas/Nebraska and will approach the upper Great Lakes region later tonight. Large-scale forcing for ascent is expected to influence ongoing convection currently located across WI - trailing into eastern IA. This activity should spread east over the next few hours with an attendant threat for mainly isolated severe wind gusts. Farther southwest, strong boundary-layer heating contributed to substantial buoyancy which led to thunderstorm development along the trailing wind shift across KS - northwest OK - southern TX Panhandle region. This activity is expected to propagate slowly southeast this evening and locally damaging winds will be the main threat. ..Darrow.. 09/13/2019 Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 649 Status Reports

5 years 8 months ago
WW 0649 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 649 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N CDS TO 45 NE CSM TO 30 SSE END TO 30 SSE PNC TO 30 W TUL TO 35 ENE BVO. ..DEAN..09/13/19 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 649 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC009-011-017-035-037-039-073-081-083-105-109-113-117-119-131- 143-147-149-130140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKHAM BLAINE CANADIAN CRAIG CREEK CUSTER KINGFISHER LINCOLN LOGAN NOWATA OKLAHOMA OSAGE PAWNEE PAYNE ROGERS TULSA WASHINGTON WASHITA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

Drought limited mushroom crop near Cordova, Alaska 

5 years 8 months ago
Dry weather reduced the number of yellow chanterelles and other mushrooms growing in the area, but recent rainfall enhanced mushroom growth. Some events were canceled for the 2019 Fungus Festival, due to dry weather. Cordova Times (Alaska), Sept. 9, 2019

SPC Tornado Watch 648 Status Reports

5 years 8 months ago
WW 0648 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 648 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W DBQ TO 40 S LSE TO 30 NW VOK TO 35 W CWA. ..JEWELL..09/12/19 ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 648 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC043-130140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAYTON WIC001-023-043-053-057-081-103-123-130140- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS CRAWFORD GRANT JACKSON JUNEAU MONROE RICHLAND VERNON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 648 Status Reports

5 years 8 months ago
WW 0648 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 648 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W DBQ TO 40 S LSE TO 30 NW VOK TO 35 W CWA. ..JEWELL..09/12/19 ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 648 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC043-130140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAYTON WIC001-023-043-053-057-081-103-123-130140- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS CRAWFORD GRANT JACKSON JUNEAU MONROE RICHLAND VERNON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 648 Status Reports

5 years 8 months ago
WW 0648 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 648 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W DBQ TO 40 S LSE TO 30 NW VOK TO 35 W CWA. ..JEWELL..09/12/19 ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 648 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC043-130140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAYTON WIC001-023-043-053-057-081-103-123-130140- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS CRAWFORD GRANT JACKSON JUNEAU MONROE RICHLAND VERNON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 648

5 years 8 months ago
WW 648 TORNADO IA MN WI 121915Z - 130300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 648 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 215 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northeast Iowa Southeast Minnesota Southwest Wisconsin * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 215 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to intensify this afternoon along a warm front across the watch area. A few supercells are possible, capable of hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north northwest of La Crosse WI to 35 miles east of Waterloo IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Hart Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 650 Status Reports

5 years 8 months ago
WW 0650 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 650 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE IRK TO 15 ENE OTM TO 15 SW CID TO 50 ENE ALO TO 20 SSW LSE. ..JEWELL..09/12/19 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 650 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC131-161-130040- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MERCER ROCK ISLAND IAC011-019-031-045-055-057-061-087-095-097-101-103-105-107-111- 113-115-139-163-177-183-130040- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON BUCHANAN CEDAR CLINTON DELAWARE DES MOINES DUBUQUE HENRY IOWA JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON JONES KEOKUK LEE LINN LOUISA MUSCATINE SCOTT VAN BUREN WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

SPC MD 1970

5 years 8 months ago
MD 1970 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 648...650... FOR EASTERN IOWA...SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1970 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0604 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019 Areas affected...eastern Iowa...southwest Wisconsin...northern Illinois Concerning...Tornado Watch 648...650... Valid 122304Z - 130100Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 648, 650 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for an isolated tornado continues from northeast Iowa into southwest Wisconsin. A damaging wind threat may eventually develop southward across the remainder of eastern Iowa and into northern Illinois, and additional watches may be needed. DISCUSSION...Embedded supercells continue within an area of warm advection precipitation from northeast IA into southwest WI near a warm front. Although temperatures are currently cooler over WI, southwestern parts of the state are in close proximity to higher theta-e air just to the southwest. In addition, 850 mb winds will continue to provide advection and low-level shear. To the south of the ongoing cluster, strong instability remains ahead of the cold front which is now over central IA. Over the next few hours, storms are expected to increase in coverage, with hail or wind possible. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out as effective SRH remains in the 150-250 m2/s2 range over northern IL. ..Jewell.. 09/12/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX... LAT...LON 41338769 40878919 40729013 40759072 40919128 41189165 41509175 42099155 42499136 43379124 43789076 43769027 43458981 43118918 42888872 42598806 42428771 42078746 41648751 41338769 Read more

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

5 years 8 months ago

000
ABNT20 KNHC 122353
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Nine, centered over the southeastern Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A tropical wave located several hundred miles west of the Cabo
Verde Islands is currently producing limited and disorganized
shower activity. Conditions are expected to become more conducive
for development in a couple days, and a tropical depression could
form early next week while the system moves quickly westward across
the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine are issued
under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine are issued
under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Stewart
NHC Webmaster

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

5 years 8 months ago

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 122353
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Sep 12 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
named Tropical Storm Kiko, located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located a
little more than 1500 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula have decreased since this morning.
Some gradual development of this system is still possible during the
next couple of days while the wave moves slowly westward at 5 to 10
mph. Strong upper-level winds are expected to limit the chance for
development by late this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Another tropical wave, located a few hundred miles southwest of
Acapulco, Mexico, continues to produce an area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is
possible through early next week as it moves westward or
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form west of the coast of
Central America over the weekend. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for development and a tropical
depression could form early next week while the system moves
westward well south of the southern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Kiko are issued under WMO header
WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Kiko are issued under WMO
header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
NHC Webmaster

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Public Advisory Number 1A

5 years 8 months ago
Issued at 800 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019 000 WTNT34 KNHC 122345 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 800 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019 ...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... ...TROPICAL CYCLONE EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.7N 74.8W ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests along the east coast of Florida should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the poorly defined center of the disturbance was located by satellite, surface observations, and reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 74.8 West. The disturbance has been stationary over the southeastern Bahamas. The system is expected to move slowly toward the northwest by early Friday, and this motion is forecast to continue during the next 2 days. On this track, the system is anticipated to move across the central and northwestern Bahamas on Friday, and along or over the east coast of Florida on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression or a tropical storm during the next day or so. Environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical depression or tropical storm to form within the next day or two. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in the northwest Bahamas by late Friday. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches through Sunday over the Bahamas and along the east coast of Florida north of West Palm Beach. Isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches are possible in the northwest and central Bahamas. STORM SURGE: This system is not expected to product significant storm surge in the northwest Bahamas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
NHC Webmaster

Rain needed for field preparation in West Central Texas 

5 years 8 months ago
Most fields in West Central Texas being prepared for fall planting needed rain before plowing can occur. More supplemental feeding of livestock was underway, while most livestock body conditions were declining, due to dry low-protein pasture forages. North Texas e-News (Fannin, Texas), Sept. 11, 2019

Cotton wilting in Far West Texas 

5 years 8 months ago
Cotton in Far West Texas was beginning to wilt, due to heat and absence of rain. North Texas e-News (Fannin, Texas), Sept. 11, 2019