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To conserve water, the cities of Roy, South Ogden and Riverdale have closed their splash pads for the summer, but the larger public pools remain open. Some city-owned green spaces in Roy will also receive less water this summer. Similarly, in Ogden, city parks will be watered less than normal. Residents are limited to watering once weekly, so cities aimed to show that they were also conserving. Ogden Standard Examiner/StandardNet (Utah), May 27, 2022

WW 0286 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 286 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S EAU TO 30 NW EAU TO 70 NNW EAU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0960 ..GLEASON..05/29/22 ATTN...WFO...MPX...ARX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 286 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC005-033-291640- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRON DUNN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1009 AM CDT Sun May 29 2022 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... No changes to the previous forecast. See the previous discussion for more detail. ..Wendt.. 05/29/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sun May 29 2022/ ...Synopsis... Southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to increase ahead of a strengthening mid-level trough diving across the Southwest and Great Basin. At the surface, a cold front will stall across the southern Great Basin, while a lee low deepens in response to lift from the approaching trough. Widespread strong surface winds are expected ahead of the trough from the southern Great Basin to the High Plains. The strong winds will overlap with a warm and very dry airmass supporting widespread critical fire weather concerns within dry fuels. ...Southwest and southern Great Basin... Strong flow aloft associated with the fast moving upper trough/jet streak is forecast to overspread much of NM and the southern Four Corners early today. At the same time, a lee low across southeastern CO should intensify, bolstering low-level southwesterly winds to 25-35 mph. In addition to the strong boundary-layer flow, area soundings show very warm temperatures and low to very low relative humidity. The favorable overlap of strong surface winds, low humidity and dry fuels will support widespread critical fire weather concerns. A few hours of localized extremely critical conditions also appear possible mainly across portions of eastern and central NM where the greatest potential for 30+ mph winds and sub-10% humidity may briefly coexist. Confidence in prolonged extremely critical conditions remains low owing to limited spatial and temporal coverage and slightly moderated fuels due to recent precipitation. Across the southern Great Basin, model guidance shows a few hours of stronger surface winds of 15-20 mph overlapping with humidity of 10-15% south of the stalled cold front. While coverage and duration of the stronger winds and lower surface humidity is expected to be limited, a few hours of elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will likely develop within areas of dry fuels. ...Southern High Plains... As the lee low begins to move eastward into the central Plains, a trailing dryline and associated surface trough should aid in the strengthening southwesterly low-level winds across much of the southern High Plains. While widespread critical meteorological conditions are expected, recent precipitation has moderated some fuels. This will limit the potential for more vigorous fire weather activity, particularly across portions of the southern and eastern TX Panhandle. A Critical Area will be maintained where the best overlap in 20-25 mph surface winds, surface RH below 15% and the most supportive fuels exists. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0960 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 286... FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN MN INTO WESTERN WI AND FAR NORTHEASTERN IA
Mesoscale Discussion 0960 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1002 AM CDT Sun May 29 2022 Areas affected...Portions of far southeastern MN into western WI and far northeastern IA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 286... Valid 291502Z - 291630Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 286 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated severe hail threat appears to be diminishing. Downstream watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms driven largely by low-level warm advection have struggled to intensity over the past couple of hours across southern MN. This activity is approaching the eastern bounds of meaningful MUCAPE based on latest mesoanalysis. Deep-layer shear is also marginal, around 25-30 kt. Current expectations are for the already marginal hail threat associated with these thunderstorms to continue diminishing as they move eastward across western WI over the next couple of hours. The remaining valid counties in Severe Thunderstorm Watch 286 should be able to be cleared shortly, and downstream watch issuance is not expected. ..Gleason.. 05/29/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 44609187 45239209 45499155 45429077 44959037 44029034 43409083 43049176 43329186 43869161 44609187 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 May 2022 14:44:10 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 May 2022 15:22:27 GMT

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun May 29 2022 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 291442 TCDEP1 Hurricane Agatha Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022 1000 AM CDT Sun May 29 2022 Agatha is rapidly intensifying. Recent conventional and microwave satellite data have shown that the storm's convective structure has significantly improved overnight and this morning. Overnight microwave imagery indicated that a low to mid-level eye had formed and more recent 1109 and 1206 UTC SSMIS overpasses revealed that the inner-core structure has continued to improve. Subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB were 77 and 65 kt, respectively, while objective Dvorak estimates have increased to near 75 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity has been set at 75 kt. The environment ahead of Agatha is expected to remain favorable for further intensification. The hurricane is currently over SSTs of around 30C, within low shear, and embedded in a moist low- to mid-level atmosphere. As a result, continued steady to rapid strengthening is predicted during the next 12-24 hours after which time the hurricane's intensity is likely to level off due to a possible eyewall cycle and/or interaction with land. The updated NHC intensity forecast is notably higher than the previous advisory due to the higher initial intensity and likelihood of continued rapid strengthening today. The new intensity forecast brings Agatha to near major hurricane strength before landfall in southern Mexico and is in best agreement with the SHIPS model. After landfall Agatha should rapidly weaken as it moves over the mountains terrain of southern Mexico. Agatha has been meandering this morning, but the longer term initial motion estimate is 345/2 kt. The hurricane should turn northward this afternoon, and then begin to move on a faster northeastward motion tonight and Monday as it becomes embedded in southwesterly flow between a mid- to upper-level trough over northern Mexico and a mid- to upper-level ridge to its east. On the foreast track, Agatha is expected to approach the coast of southern Mexico tonight, and move onshore on Monday. The latest track guidance is once again slower than before, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly. The new NHC track remains near the middle of the guidance envelope, close to the various consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Dangerous coastal flooding from storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves is expected near and the east of where Agatha makes landfall. 2. Life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected in portions of the hurricane warning area in southern Mexico on Monday, with tropical storm conditions beginning there tonight or early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area on Monday. 3. Heavy rains associated with Agatha will develop over portions of southern Mexico later today and continue through Tuesday. This will pose a threat of potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 14.1N 99.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 14.4N 98.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 14.9N 98.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 31/0000Z 15.7N 96.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 31/1200Z 16.6N 95.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 60H 01/0000Z 17.4N 95.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN MAY 29 2022 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 291442 PWSEP1 HURRICANE AGATHA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012022 1500 UTC SUN MAY 29 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE AGATHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 100W 34 44 6(50) 1(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) 15N 100W 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ACAPULCO 34 1 6( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) P MALDONADO 34 2 22(24) 11(35) 3(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) P MALDONADO 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) P MALDONADO 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) P ANGEL 34 1 31(32) 50(82) 6(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) P ANGEL 50 X 4( 4) 38(42) 13(55) 1(56) X(56) X(56) P ANGEL 64 X 1( 1) 20(21) 10(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) HUATULCO 34 1 8( 9) 57(66) 15(81) 1(82) X(82) X(82) HUATULCO 50 X 1( 1) 22(23) 19(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) HUATULCO 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 11(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) 15N 95W 34 1 3( 4) 23(27) 10(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) 15N 95W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 95W 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TAPACHULA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN MAY 29 2022 823 WTPZ21 KNHC 291441 TCMEP1 HURRICANE AGATHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012022 1500 UTC SUN MAY 29 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SALINA CRUZ TO LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SALINA CRUZ EASTWARD TO BARRA DE TONALA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SALINA CRUZ EASTWARD TO BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN * LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA WESTWARD TO PUNTA MALDONADO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF AGATHA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 99.0W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 90SW 135NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 99.0W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 99.1W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.4N 98.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.9N 98.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 15.7N 96.9W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 80SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 16.6N 95.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 90SE 70SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 17.4N 95.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 99.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 29/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun May 29 2022 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 291441 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Agatha Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022 1000 AM CDT Sun May 29 2022 ...AGATHA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING... ...ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED BEFORE THE HURRICANE REACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 99.0W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM WSW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Salina Cruz to Lagunas de Chacahua A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Salina Cruz eastward to Barra De Tonala A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Salina Cruz eastward to Boca de Pijijiapan * Lagunas de Chacahua westward to Punta Maldonado A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should closely monitor the progress of Agatha. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Agatha was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 99.0 West. Agatha is moving toward the north-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected later today, with a motion toward the northeast continuing through Monday night. On the forecast track, the center of Agatha will approach the southern coast of Mexico later today and tonight and make landfall there on Monday. Agatha is rapidly strengthening. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next 12 to 24 hours and Agatha is forecast to be near major hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of southern Mexico on Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area and possibly in the watch area on Monday, with tropical storm conditions beginning tonight or early Monday. STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce dangerous coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of where the center of Agatha makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Agatha will produce heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico through Tuesday night. The following rainfall amounts are currently expected: Mexican state of Oaxaca: 10 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. Mexican state of Chiapas: 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. Eastern portions of the Mexican state of Guerrero: 2 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. Mexican states of VeraCruz and Tabasco: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible. SURF: Large swells generated by Agatha will affect the coast of southern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...AGATHA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING... ...ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED BEFORE THE HURRICANE REACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO ON MONDAY... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sun May 29 the center of Agatha was located near 14.1, -99.0 with movement NNW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 981 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

WW 286 SEVERE TSTM MN WI 291035Z - 291800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 286 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 535 AM CDT Sun May 29 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern and Central Minnesota West-Central Wisconsin * Effective this Sunday morning and afternoon from 535 AM until 100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorm cluster over southwest Minnesota is expected to continue northeastward into more of southern and central Minnesota and eventually west-central Wisconsin. Strong wind gusts and large to very large hail are possible with this storm cluster over the next several hours. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west of Mankato MN to 70 miles northeast of Rochester MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 285... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24040. ...Mosier/Edwards Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Sun May 29 2022 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO CENTRAL MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm gusts of 60 to 85 mph, hail over 2 inches in diameter, and a few tornadoes are possible this afternoon and tonight from parts of Nebraska northeastward into southwestern and central Minnesota. ...Synopsis... The dominant mid/upper-level feature for this forecast period will be a substantial, currently negatively tilted synoptic trough -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery from the BC coastal vicinity southeastward over the inland Pacific Northwest, Great Basin and AZ. A vorticity lobe now located over southeastern OR is forecast to evolve into a closed 500-mb cyclone over southern ID in the next few hours, then move slowly southeastward toward southwestern WY through the remainder of the period. Several weak perturbations/vorticity maxima will eject northeastward across the central/southern Rockies and central/northern Plains today in the associated cyclonic flow, which will become strongly difluent across the northern Plains overnight. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a primary/occluded cyclone centered over west-central ND, occluded front to southeastern ND, warm front from there to western/southern WI, and slow-moving cold to quasistationary front across eastern SD, northeastern through south-central NE, northwestern KS, to a low in CO between LHX-LIC. By 00Z, the northern low should move slowly eastward to northeastward to northeastern ND, with front arching over the eastern Dakotas to northeastern and south-central NE, then to another low over northeastern CO. This evening, the central High Plains low will shift/redevelop over northwestern KS and move into south-central/central NE. By 12Z, the main surface low should be over central or south-central NE, with cold front extending southwestward across western KS and southeastern CO, and moving southeastward again. A dryline -- initially drawn across western KS, the TX Panhandle, to the Big Bend area of TX, should move eastward into western OK and west-central TX this afternoon before retreating northwestward tonight. Capping and lack of stronger lift should suppress substantial convective potential on the dryline. ...Central Plains to parts of SD/MN... Three primary convective episodes across this region cumulatively will offer the great majority of severe-thunderstorm threats through the period, and are covered chronologically below. 1. An ongoing, broken band of thunderstorms over central/southern MN, with potential for damaging gusts and hail the next few hours. See SPC severe-thunderstorm watch 286 and related/nearby mesoscale discussions for near-term coverage of the wind/hail threat from this activity. 2. Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms should develop as soon as midday to midafternoon over the higher terrain of northwest/north-central CO and southern WY, as the strongest large-scale ascent ahead of the deepening cyclone spreads over at least marginal low/midlevel moisture and steep lapse rates in the region. Isolated strong-severe gusts and hail will be possible with this "early" activity as it continues to spread/build east- northeastward onto the adjoining High Plains of northeastern CO/eastern WY, western NE and perhaps southwestern SD. Upon leaving the mountains, this regime will encounter a favorable environment of upslope flow with a substantial headlong component relative to storm motion, with the resultant strong storm-relative low-level winds enabling optimized lift. These factors should help to sustain this activity toward the Sandhills and Badlands into evening. The southeastern part of this regime over NE and perhaps south-central SD will be in the most-favorable low-level moisture and instability north of the boundary, should last longer than farther north/ northwest, and may merge with the next process in NE. 3. Scattered thunderstorms should develop near the boundary late this afternoon and this evening over central/northeastern NE, with early-stage supercell mode possible. Convection should evolve upscale to a clustered, bowing, probably cold-pool-driven complex with time into parts of northwestern IA, southeastern SD and southern/central MN, moving astride the instability/buoyancy gradient related to the baroclinic zone. Damaging gusts, large to very large hail, and a tornado or two may occur with any supercells, especially along the boundary where low-level moisture, SRH, hodograph size, and vorticity will be maximized. In the adjoining warm sector, steep low/middle-level lapse rates, strong diurnal mixing, and related favorable DCAPE will support wind potential. 2500-4000 J/kg peak/preconvective MLCAPE is expected near the front, supported by surface dew points in the 60s. By 00-06Z, this corridor also will be near the axis of the strongest 500-250-mb layer flow, contributing to effective-shear magnitudes commonly in the 50-70-kt range. Descending rear-inflow jet(s) also may transport momentum downward from the strong flow aloft, augmenting the cold pools and wind potential, until activity encounters more-stable boundary-layer air late tonight across the upper Mississippi Valley. ..Edwards/Mosier.. 05/29/2022 Read more

088
ABPZ20 KNHC 291141
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun May 29 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane Agatha, located a couple of hundred miles
southwest of Puerto Angel, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

A third year of drought means less water for Northern California and less water for rice acreage. Rice growers along the Sacramento and Feather rivers will have to leave fields idle, according to a rice farming systems adviser and director at the University of California Butte County Cooperative Extension. In Butte County, about 60% to 80% of rice acres will be planted as usual, but in Glenn and Colusa counties, just about 10% of rice will be planted, he said. Reduced water supplies in 2021 meant that there were fewer acres of rice planted last year, too. Irrigation districts along the Feather River hold a 50% entitlement minimum according to a 1969 water diversion agreement, which Lake Oroville can provide, so 60% to 70% of rice should be planted along the Feather River. Glenn-Colusa Irrigation District manager stated that farmers in his district will likely plant only 2,000 acres of a total 100,000 acres of rice normally planted for just 2% of normal. While the irrigation district has a 75% water entitlement agreement, Lake Shasta does not hold enough water to fulfill the agreement. The district will get just 18% of their water rights. The sharp reduction in water supplies has forced some rice growers to let their employees go, increasing unemployment in the area. There will also be fewer people employed processing rice. Chico Enterprise-Record (Calif.), May 28, 2022 California’s rice acreage is expected to fall to its lowest level since 1984, according to the Department of Agriculture. It is predicted that 348,000 acres of rice will be planted this year, down from 407,000 acres in 2021. KERO-TV ABC 23 Bakersfield-Turn to 23 (Calif.), May 11, 2022

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 May 2022 14:34:56 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 May 2022 15:22:31 GMT

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat May 28 2022 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 281433 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Agatha Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022 1000 AM CDT Sat May 28 2022 Satellite images indicate that Agatha continues to gradually become better organized with a central dense overcast feature and a series of curved bands evident in the latest imagery. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were both 2.5/35 kt, but given recent trends, the initial intensity is set a little higher at 40 kt. Agatha is gradually turning to the right, but at a slow forward speed. Smoothing through the wobbles yields an initial motion of 285/4 kt. The storm is expected to gradually make a turn to the north later today or tonight, followed by a slightly faster northeastward motion on Sunday as Agatha becomes embedded in the flow between a ridge to the east and a trough to its northwest. This motion should take the storm inland over southern Mexico on Monday. The NHC track forecast is quite similar to the previous one and near the various consensus aids. The storm is expected to remain in near ideal environmental conditions of very low wind shear, high SSTs and oceanic heat, and a moist mid-level airmass until it reaches the coast of Mexico on Monday. In fact, several of the rapid intensification indices in the SHIPS model are higher than 60 percent, indicative that rapid intensification is a distinct possibility during the next day or so. Given these conditions and guidance, the NHC intensity forecast remains at the high end of the models and calls for Agatha to become a hurricane in 24 hours, with additional strengthening expected until landfall. Based on the current forecast, new watches and warnings will likely be required later today. Key Messages: 1. There is an increasing risk of tropical-storm-force and hurricane-force winds along portions of the southern coast of Mexico Sunday night and Monday, and a Hurricane Watch remains in effect for portions of this area. Interests should closely monitor the progress of this system and updates to the forecast. 2. Heavy rains associated with Agatha will develop over portions of southern Mexico by Sunday and continue through Tuesday. This will pose a threat of potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 13.2N 98.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 13.4N 98.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 13.8N 98.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 14.2N 98.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 14.8N 97.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 31/0000Z 15.8N 96.6W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND 72H 31/1200Z 16.8N 95.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT MAY 28 2022 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 281433 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM AGATHA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012022 1500 UTC SAT MAY 28 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM AGATHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 10N 100W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 100W 34 X 7( 7) 13(20) 7(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) 15N 100W 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ACAPULCO 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) 4(15) X(15) X(15) P MALDONADO 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 10(15) 12(27) X(27) X(27) P MALDONADO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) P MALDONADO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P ANGEL 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 33(44) 32(76) X(76) X(76) P ANGEL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 33(42) X(42) X(42) P ANGEL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) X(21) X(21) HUATULCO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 16(19) 45(64) X(64) X(64) HUATULCO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) X(28) X(28) HUATULCO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 95W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 11(16) 25(41) X(41) X(41) 15N 95W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 95W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TAPACHULA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT MAY 28 2022 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 281432 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM AGATHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012022 1500 UTC SAT MAY 28 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ TO PUNTA MALDONADO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF AGATHA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 98.4W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 98.4W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 98.3W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 13.4N 98.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 13.8N 98.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.2N 98.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 80SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.8N 97.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 80SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 15.8N 96.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 90SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 16.8N 95.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 98.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 28/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat May 28 2022 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 281432 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Agatha Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022 1000 AM CDT Sat May 28 2022 ...AGATHA MOVING SLOWLY OFF SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 98.4W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The southern coast of Mexico from Salina Cruz to Punta Maldonado A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should closely monitor the progress of Agatha. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for portions of this area later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Agatha was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 98.4 West. Agatha is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the northeast by Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Agatha will approach the southern coast of Mexico on Sunday and make landfall there on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional steady to rapid strengthening is forecast, and Agatha is expected to become a hurricane on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible late Sunday or early Monday. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds. The surge may be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Agatha will produce heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico by Sunday into Tuesday night. The following rainfall amounts are currently expected: Mexican state of Oaxaca: 10 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. Mexican states of Chiapas and the eastern portions of Guerrero: 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. Mexican states of Vera Cruz and Tabasco: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...AGATHA MOVING SLOWLY OFF SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sat May 28 the center of Agatha was located near 13.2, -98.4 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.