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Wheat prices are incredibly high, but, unfortunately for Texas wheat growers, a lot of the wheat will not be harvested this year. “Most of them will probably be totally abandoned, most meaning probably something like 70, even up to 80 percent,” according to a professor of agronomy and the wheat breeding program coordinator at the Texas A&M AgriLife Extension and Research Center at Amarillo. One of the factors responsible for the high wheat prices are Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Those two countries account for about 30% of global exports, but it is not certain how much either country will produce this year. Indian officials announced plans to export a record amount of wheat to help make up the shortage, but later announced a ban on wheat exports as a major heat wave damaged their crop. It has since been announced that some exports will be permitted. Texas Standard (Austin), May 19, 2022

Moderate to severe drought is affecting some coastal Georgia counties, allowing some small ponds and streams in the area to run dry. The number of wildfires has also risen. Farmers are getting nervous about rain for the corn crop and for planting cotton. WTOC-TV CBS 11 Savannah (Ga.), May 19, 2022

No watches are valid as of Thu May 19 15:06:06 UTC 2022.

MD 0826 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL INTO EASTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0826 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1005 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022 Areas affected...central into eastern Missouri and southwest Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 191505Z - 191730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Storms may produce sporadic hail over the next several hours, eventually affecting the St. Louis area and crossing into Illinois. DISCUSSION...Strong storms persist in the warm advection regime ahead of a prominent MCV, with sporadic hail cores noted. This leading cluster of storms is currently moving east/northeastward, embedded within a larger-scale area of deep theta-e advection, which in itself is also shifting northeast. Therefore, the trend of pulsing hail cores should persist today, and may strengthen later this afternoon as instability is maximized from heating. Steep lapse rates aloft and sufficient deep-layer shear will continue to favor hail cores, but a wind risk could develop out of this activity at which time a watch would become more likely. ..Jewell/Hart.. 05/19/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF... LAT...LON 38459227 38859208 39249159 39589037 39548967 39528913 39328846 38738799 37968796 37618805 37308838 37198953 37348999 37519067 37649122 37669162 37769202 38459227 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0724 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN IA...SOUTHEASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM SOUTHERN MO TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated very large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible later this afternoon into early tonight across northern Iowa, southeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Occasional large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes may also occur this afternoon from southern Missouri into southern Illinois, with at least isolated large hail/damaging winds farther east into the Carolinas. ...IA/MN/WI late this afternoon into tonight... A deep midlevel trough will move generally eastward along the international border from MT to MN by the end of the period. Downstream from the strengthening midlevel jet, initial lee cyclogenesis this morning across southwest SD will develop eastward to southern MN this evening and northwest WI tonight. East of the cyclone, a warm front will develop northward across IA/southern MN/WI through the afternoon/evening. The more probable area for initial storm development late this afternoon/evening will be east of the surface cyclone, along and north of the warm front in the zone of stronger ascent/warm advection with gradually increasing low-level moisture. Other storms will likely form this evening farther southwest along the trailing cold front. Uncertainty in this outlook area is related to the remnant MCS and well-developed MCV moving across northeast OK/southeast KS/southwest MO, which has intercepted the richer (near 70 F) dewpoints along the diffuse baroclinic zone straddling the KS/OK and MO/AR borders. This leaves residual low-mid 60s dewpoints across eastern KS and southeastern NE to the north of the MCS, which is below the more aggressive model forecasts of moisture return. Thus, the low-level moisture spreading into IA/MN/WI through the day is likely to be somewhat marginal for a more substantial tornado threat, when also considering the effects of afternoon mixing. Steep lapse rates and MLCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg, as well as relatively long hodographs with low-level clockwise turning, will support supercells capable of producing very large hail initially. Storms should tend to evolve into clusters and line segments with more of a damaging wind threat by late evening. As previously discussed, the tornado threat will depend on the degree of low-level moisture return, which at the moment appears more supportive of a typical (5%) outlook area. ...Central/southern MO/IL through late evening... A well-developed MCV from overnight convection is approaching southwest MO, and will likely persist while continuing east-northeastward through the day, in response to gradual backing of midlevel flow related to upstream amplification of the trough over the northern Rockies. The MCV will track along a residual baroclinic zone and corridor of 68-72 F boundary-layer dewpoints with MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg, which will support the potential for continued latent heating and maintenance of the MCV through the day. Associated convection will likely undergo diurnal intensification since the richer low-level moisture is already present in advance of this system. A couple of tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds will all be possible with embedded clusters/supercells coinciding with MCV-related enhancements to the wind profiles. ...KY/TN into the Carolinas through late afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough is moving over the southern Appalachians this morning. As the low levels warm/moisten across the Carolinas today, at least isolated thunderstorm development is expected in advance of this trough. Midlevel lapse rates of 7.5-8 C/km, MLCAPE at or above 2000 J/kg and straight hodographs with 30-35 kt effective bulk shear will support a mix of multicell clusters and supercells capable of producing large hail and damaging winds, mainly this afternoon/evening. Farther west, storm development is a bit less certain to the west of the Appalachians shortwave trough, and well east of the MO MCV. Daytime heating/mixing could support isolated storm development across TN/KY this afternoon, and perhaps a few storms this evening/early tonight in the warm advection zone across northern KY/southern IN, east of the weakening MCV. ..Thompson/Leitman.. 05/19/2022 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191122
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu May 19 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin

California’s electric grid does not have sufficient capacity to keep the electricity flowing this summer and beyond if extreme heat, wildfires or other extreme events strike, warned California energy officials. Officials forecast a potential shortfall of 1,700 megawatts this year, a figure that could reach 5,000 MW if the grid is strained by multiple challenges that limit available power and demand rises sharply. Power outages would likely only occur during extreme conditions. Electricity planning in California has been difficult due to massive wildfires that have cut off transmission lines and extreme heat and drought have limited hydropower production. Reuters (New York), May 6, 2022

In southwestern Colorado, dry weather and winds continue to deteriorate crop conditions. Many producers have finished planting spring crops, but some fields have been replanted due to winds blowing seed away. Kiowa County Press (Eads, Colo.), May 17, 2022

Ipswich’s select board set voluntary water restrictions for the community. The reservoir is full, the rainfall deficit is one inch, and the river flow is down significantly at one-third of its mean level for this time of year. In addition, water use is higher. The mean flow level of the Parker River is 31.9%, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. Ipswich Local News (Mass.), May 17, 2022

California water officials are warning water rights holders to expect curtailments in water diversions for the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta to increase progressively through the spring and summer and continue through the early fall until significant precipitation occurs. Even senior water rights holders may be affected. All water rights holders and claimants should be prepared for reduced supplies. AgAlert (Sacramento, Calif.), May 18, 2022

In the San Luis Valley, potato planting progressed quickly, and some barley fields are being replanted due to high winds. Fields are starting to green up, but the alfalfa crop was setback by a late frost. Kiowa County Press (Eads, Colo.), May 17, 2022 In the San Luis Valley, grasses are slow to green up due to lack of moisture. Kiowa County Press (Eads, Colo.), May 9, 2022

In northeastern and east central Colorado counties, wheat conditions and growth rate vary greatly due to continued winds and lack of moisture. Counties continued to experience strong winds throughout the week, with the northeastern corner of the state experiencing gusts above 50 miles per hour. Kiowa County Press (Eads, Colo.), May 17, 2022 Strong winds in northeastern and east central Colorado continued to worsen winter wheat and rangeland conditions, as well as delay planting of other crops. No moisture is visible in the top few inches of many fields. Kiowa County Press (Eads, Colo.), April 26, 2022

Southeast Colorado continued to experience high winds. Above average temperatures and dry conditions throughout the region continued to worsen crop and pasture conditions. Kiowa County Press (Eads, Colo.), May 17, 2022 Southeastern Colorado counties remained primarily dry, and windy conditions persisted, further depleting crop and range conditions. Kiowa County Press (Eads, Colo.), April 26, 2022 The counties in southeast Colorado remained mainly dry and windy conditions persisted, further depleting crop and range conditions. Winter wheat harvest is looking bleak, as conditions continue to deteriorate due to lack of moisture and wind. Kiowa County Press (Eads, Colo.), April 19, 2022

Corpus Christi officials have been informed that the lower Colorado River authority intends to curtail or suspend the City's contractual access to water from the Colorado River, due to the ongoing drought. Corpus Christi presently receives 20% of its water from the Colorado River, one of four water supply sources for the city. To cope with getting less water from the Colorado River, the city will draw more water from Lake Texana, Lake Corpus Christi, and Choke Canyon. Water quality and service will remain the same. KIII-TV3 South Texas (Corpus Christi, Texas), May 18, 2022

No watches are valid as of Wed May 18 13:36:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed May 18 13:36:01 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Wed May 18 2022 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR KY...NORTHEAST MN/NORTHWEST WI...AND SOUTHEAST CO INTO THE OK PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail are expected this afternoon/evening across Kentucky, northeast Minnesota, and from southeast Colorado into the Oklahoma Panhandle. ...KY to southern MO this afternoon/evening... An MCV from overnight convection will move eastward from MO to the OH Valley through this evening. The ongoing convection with the MCV is elevated, and the MCV should slightly outpace surface-based destabilization through early afternoon. By mid afternoon, low-level warming/moistening along the southwest flank of the MCV should support severe storm development across KY. Here, boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s and afternoon temperatures in the low-mid 80s (south of any linger cold pool/outflow) will support MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, in a zone of low-level warm advection beneath 50 kt midlevel westerly flow. Resultant hodograph structures will favor a broken west-east band of storms, some of which could be supercells across western/central KY. Damaging winds, large hail to golf ball size, and a tornado or two will all be possible. The spatial and temporal window of opportunity for severe storms is somewhat limited, and any delays in low-level destabilization would reduce the severe threat. Father west, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible this evening along the effective baroclinic zone across far southern MO. Forcing for ascent will be weak/shallow and confined to the front, so storm development/coverage is uncertain. However, midlevel lapse rates of 8-9 C/km, MLCAPE greater than 3000 J/kg, and midlevel flow near 40 kt will support a conditional threat for large hail and damaging winds. ...Southeast CO to the OK Panhandle late this afternoon/evening... A cluster of high-based storms appears probable across southeast CO by mid-late afternoon, immediately east of the mountains in a zone of weak upslope flow and strong surface heating/deep mixing. Some modest enhancement to midlevel flow with a subtle shortwave trough moving across CO, and inverted-V profiles with DCAPE greater than 1200 J/kg, will favor strong downdrafts and the potential for a storm cluster with occasional severe outflow gusts of 60-70 mph from southeast CO into the OK Panhandle through late evening. ...Northeast MN/northwest WI this afternoon/evening... An embedded speed max over ND this morning will progress east-southeastward to MN by this evening, as an accompanying/weak surface cyclone likewise develops east-southeastward from southern MB across northern MN. Despite limited low-level moisture on the larger scale, a corridor of low 50s dewpoints combined with surface heating beneath steep midlevel lapse rates and cool midlevel temperatures (colder than -20 C at 500 mb) will support MLCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Effective bulk shear of 30-40 kt with mainly straight hodographs and the moderate buoyancy appear sufficient for a few storms (a couple of which could be low-end supercells) to produce hail near 1 inch diameter and wind damage with outflow gusts up to 60 mph for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Leitman.. 05/18/2022 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181125
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed May 18 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin

The May USDA Crop Production report included hay stocks for the beginning of the hay crop year beginning May 1. Total U.S. hay stocks were down 6.9% from 2021 and are 15.1% below the 2012-2021 average. This follows a nearly 12% decline in May 1 stocks last year and a December 1 stock level that was down 6% year over year. The ongoing drought continues to squeeze available hay supplies and widespread drought this year is a severe threat to 2022 hay and range/pasture production. May 1 hay stocks in the 17 plains and western states were down 17.7% year over year. Hay stocks in the West are down 36.6% from 2020 levels as drought persisted for two years in some places and are down 27.1% from the 2012-2021 average. The worst-affected regions are the Northern Plains and Rocky Mountain states with Montana down 53.6% year over year, and 55.4% lower from the ten-year average for the state. Also much lower were North Dakota, down 45.3%, South Dakota, down 50.5%, and Wyoming, down 38.5% from 2021 levels. In total, this four-state region had May 1 hay stocks down 49.2% year over year. This level is down 48.1% from the ten-year average level for the four-state total. These four states had 15.1% of beef cows on January 1. Drovers Cattle Network (Lenexa, Kan.), May 16, 2022