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The water level at Lake Mead is dropping about one foot weekly, which is harming the ecosystem and causing fish deaths with some parts of the lake becoming "fish graveyards." Fish from a hatchery are still planned to be released into the lake. KTNV-TV Las Vegas Channel 13 (Nev.), May 11, 2022

The grouse population in the Fort Pierre National Grassland has decreased by 15% in 2022, largely due to drought, according to the U.S. Forest Service. The total grouse population has averaged around 300 since the mid-1980s. Drought in 2021 did not permit extensive grass growth, which is useful in the spring of the following year before new grass growth occurs. Grouse begin laying eggs in April and need the dead grass from the previous year as cover, without which, the birds are more exposed to predators. Drought and little water are expected to reduce the duck and fish populations. Associated Press News (New York), May 16, 2022

The Teller County Board of County Commissioners requested that Gov. Jared Polis declare a statewide fire emergency, citing the High Park fire and other recent wildfires in the state. Such a declaration would permit the state to access emergency funds and provide additional resources for firefighting efforts. The High Park fire had burned nearly 1,600 acres and forced the pre-evacuation or evacuation of 580 homes. The blaze is 27% contained. The Colorado Springs Gazette (Colo.), May 16, 2022

A Stage 2 fire restriction took effect for unincorporated El Paso County on May 16. Open burning, the sale or use of fireworks, and outdoor smoking were prohibited. Colorado Springs Gazette (Colo.), May 16, 2022

A burn ban took effect in Colorado Springs on May 16 and will remain until further notice, according to the Colorado Springs Fire Department. Present and forecasted drought conditions, exceptionally dry fuel moisture levels, and an uptick in grass fires in undeveloped areas were reasons for the burn ban. Several fires ignited the previous week and even led to a woman’s death. Violators may be fined up to $2,500, face jail time or probation. Colorado Springs Gazette (Colo.), May 16, 2022

A dairy owner in Otter Tail County opted to sell most of his 300-cow herd after the 2021 drought slashed his feed supply, and spring 2022 feed prices were exorbitant. Rains during fall 2021 and spring 2022 ended drought in the area, but feed prices remained high. Other dairy producers were selling cows also. Agweek (Fargo, N.D.), May 16, 2022

WW 0226 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0226 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 226 SEVERE TSTM NY PA LO 161525Z - 162000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 226 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM EDT Mon May 16 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western to central New York Northeast Pennsylvania Lake Ontario * Effective this Monday morning and afternoon from 1125 AM until 400 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Intensifying storms are expected into this afternoon as activity spreads northeast from central Pennsylvania and western New York, with a mix of damaging winds and hail anticipated. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north northeast of Syracuse NY to 10 miles south southeast of Wilkesbarre PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 225... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Grams Read more

MD 0781 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 225...226... FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN PA...CENTRAL NY
Mesoscale Discussion 0781 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CDT Mon May 16 2022 Areas affected...Central/Eastern PA...Central NY Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 225...226... Valid 161522Z - 161645Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 225, 226 continues. SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind gusts continues across central PA. Isolated hail is also possible across south-central NY before the threat trends more towards damaging wind gusts. DISCUSSION...Updrafts embedded within the line of showers and thunderstorms moving across central PA has shown sporadic intensification over the past hour or so, with only limited updraft maintenance/duration thus far. Heating downstream will help boost instability, with strong updrafts becoming more prevalent. Threat for damaging wind gusts across this region continues. A few stronger updrafts have also developed within a warm-air advection wing over north-central PA into south-central NY, to the north and east of the deeper cores over central PA. The environment supports a marginal hail risk with this initial development, with wind damage becoming the primary risk as storms become more surface-based with time. ..Mosier/Grams.. 05/16/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP... LAT...LON 40937765 42007772 42467739 43187672 43127591 42687533 42187506 41657506 41317558 40917605 40007719 40937765 Read more

WW 0225 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0225 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 225 SEVERE TSTM PA 161345Z - 161800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 225 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 945 AM EDT Mon May 16 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central Pennsylvania * Effective this Monday morning and afternoon from 945 AM until 200 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...An emerging low-topped convective line across southwest Pennsylvania should intensify as it spreads east-northeast into early afternoon with strong gusts producing scattered tree damage the main threat. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north of Williamsport PA to 45 miles southwest of Harrisburg PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 24030. ...Grams Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0731 AM CDT Mon May 16 2022 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN NY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM EASTERN NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe storms with damaging winds, a couple of tornadoes and isolated large hail are expected from late morning through the afternoon from central/eastern New York to the Mid_Atlantic. Damaging winds and isolated large hail will also be possible this afternoon and early tonight from eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. ...NY to the Mid-Atlantic from late morning to late afternoon... A midlevel shortwave trough over the OH Valley this morning will progress east-northeastward over the Mid-Atlantic and New England by tonight, as an associated surface cyclone deepens across the Saint Lawrence Valley and a trailing cold front likewise moves eastward and offshore overnight. Low-mid 60s boundary-layer dewpoints will spread northward ahead of the front, and pockets of surface heating will boost buoyancy by afternoon (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg). Deep-layer flow/vertical shear will increase with the approach of the midlevel trough from the west, contributing to an environment supportive of organized line segments and some supercell structures from late morning through the afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage/intensity by late morning from the Finger Lakes region southward along the leading edge of the pre-frontal convective band moving into western PA this morning. These storms will subsequently spread eastward across NY and the Mid-Atlantic through late afternoon, and other storms could form farther west and southwest along the synoptic cold front, assuming sufficient cloud breaks occur by midday. The presence of organized convective bands and strengthening wind profiles suggest that wind damage with peak gusts of 55-70 mph will be a common threat this afternoon, west of any cooling marine influence. The threat for significant (75+ mph) gusts is more questionable given rather modest downdraft potential (DCAPE generally less than 500 J/kg) and low-midlevel flow no stronger than 30-40 kt. Otherwise, low-level shear may be strong enough to support a couple of tornadoes with pre-frontal supercells or circulations embedded in line segments, and the stronger storms may also produce isolated large hail of 1 to 1.5 inches in diameter. ...Southern High Plains this afternoon into early tonight... Low-level moisture has spread westward into eastern NM this morning on post-frontal easterly flow. Weak lee cyclogenesis and heating/mixing within the initially moist air mass will reduce convective inhibition this afternoon and allow scattered high-based thunderstorm development across eastern NM, and storms will gradually grow upscale and spread eastward on consolidating outflows. Inverted-V profiles with large DCAPE (near 1500 J/kg) will favor scattered severe outflow gusts, some of which may approach 75 mph prior to the convection slowly weakening early tonight across the TX Panhandle. ...Northern Rockies areas afternoon/evening... Subtle embedded speed maxima will continue to move from the northern Great Basin/Pacific Northwest to the northern Rockies, atop a weak baroclinic zone from central ID to southwest MT. A lingering low-midlevel moisture plume and surface heating in cloud breaks will support MLCAPE up to about 500 J/kg, within a corridor of effective bulk shear of 30-40 kt and largely straight hodographs. This environment will support widely scattered storms this afternoon/evening in the vicinity of the Beartooth Mountains, some of which could have low-end/splitting supercell characteristics with gusty outflow winds and marginally severe hail. Farther south, a few high-based storms may form this afternoon across extreme northeast NV and northwest UT, in advance of a subtle shortwave trough now near the northeast CA/NV border. Inverted-V profiles will favor strong outflow gusts with any deep convection in this corridor this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Leitman.. 05/16/2022 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161114
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon May 16 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Gov. Kate Brown declared a drought emergency in Baker, Douglas, Wallowa and Wheeler on May 13. The executive order directs state agencies to coordinate and prioritize assistance to the region. “(These) counties are facing historic challenges from drought conditions that are creating hardships for the people, farms, ranches, communities and ecosystems in the region. I am committed to doing everything possible to make state resources available to provide immediate relief and assistance to water users throughout Baker, Douglas, Wallowa, and Wheeler counties,” stated Gov. Brown. The Roseburg News-Review (Ore.), May 13, 2022

Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham on May 13 requested more federal assistance for wildfire response to the blazes burning in the northern part of the state. The needed response exceeds the state’s capabilities, and the federal government should pay all of the firefighting costs because one of the two fires that merged was sparked by embers blown from a prescribed burn in the Santa Fe National Forest, according to the governor. The merged fires have charred 437 miles and at least 473 structures in the five weeks that they have burned. Another fire near Los Alamos has burned 71 square miles and was 23% contained. More than 2,000 square miles have burned nationwide already in 2022. Associated Press News (New York), May 14, 2022

Hay production was low in Montana in 2021 and is not looking good for 2022. The surface of the soil is very dry, and moisture below only extends down six to eight inches. A business owner who purchases more than 100 tons of hay annually stated that hay had been selling for $150 to $175 per ton, but has risen to $400 per ton. KBZK-TV Bozeman 7 (Mont.), May 15, 2022

The California drought means low snowpack and less water. In the Sacramento Valley, it is expected that rice acreage will be halved, leaving at least 250,000 acres fallow for lack of water. Migratory birds stop in rice fields along the Pacific Flyway in the fall, finding critical food and habitat on their long journeys. The rice fields are very important since California has lost 95% of its historic wetland habitat since the Gold Rush. But this year, there will be far less rice and water available for hungry, fatigued birds. With the birds concentrated in a smaller area, disease can spread more easily also. The Sacramento Bee (Calif.), May 15, 2022

As of 9am on Saturday, 5/15, 2022 the San Rafael is 100% contained at 11,620 acres. The fire is in patrol status at this time. All resources will be released by end of shift Sunday.  The Arizona Trail at Parker Lake to Harshaw Road remains closed until Monday afternoon, 5/16.

WW 0216 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 216 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW SLN TO 5 WNW TOP TO 15 NE SZL. ..MOSIER..05/15/22 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 216 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-003-015-017-031-041-045-059-073-079-107-111-113-115-121- 127-139-169-177-197-207-151640- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN ANDERSON BUTLER CHASE COFFEY DICKINSON DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GREENWOOD HARVEY LINN LYON MCPHERSON MARION MIAMI MORRIS OSAGE SALINE SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE WOODSON MOC013-037-053-083-101-159-151640- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BATES CASS COOPER HENRY JOHNSON PETTIS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 216 SEVERE TSTM KS MO 151150Z - 151800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 216 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 650 AM CDT Sun May 15 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Kansas Western Missouri * Effective this Sunday morning and afternoon from 650 AM until 100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Clusters of elevated thunderstorms will likely continue to grow in size while intensifying through the morning. Large hail will be possible with the strongest storms, and the threat for wind damage will increase through the morning from Topeka into the Kansas City area. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles west northwest of Salina KS to 10 miles north northeast of Knob Noster MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30045. ...Thompson Read more