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No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Apr 10 14:04:01 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Sun Apr 10 2022 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this evening from parts of northeastern Oklahoma into southeast Kansas and Missouri. Large hail and damaging winds are expected to be the main threats. ...Oklahoma to southeast Kansas/Ozarks... Gradual height falls are expected toward the region on the southern periphery of an upper-level trough shifting eastward from the northern High Plains toward the Upper Midwest. Primary surface cyclogenesis will take place from Kansas toward the Upper Midwest as a cold front advances southeastward toward the Ozarks/central Oklahoma through tonight, while a dryline will extend from a secondary surface low southward across western North Texas/west-central Texas around peak heating. Modest-caliber moisture return will occur across the eastern halves of Texas/Oklahoma into the Ozarks and Middle Mississippi Valley, with surface dewpoints rising into the 50s F to locally near 60 F across the warm sector. A stout elevated mixed layer will likely inhibit surface-based thunderstorm initiation for much of the day, but MLCAPE will steadily increase into the 1500-2000 J/kg range as robust diurnal heating occurs beneath very steep mid-level lapse rates. Moderate southwesterly flow aloft will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, conditional upon initiation. Isolated storm development cannot be entirely ruled out near the dryline/triple point across west-central/southwest Oklahoma during the late afternoon/early evening, but substantial MLCIN across the warm sector is expected to limit this potential. A more probable scenario will be for increasing post-sunset development across north-central and especially northeast Oklahoma into far southeast Kansas and the Missouri/Ozarks. This will be aided by a strengthening low-level jet and warm advection, with much of this development tending to be at least slightly elevated to the north of the front. Regardless, moderate buoyancy and strong effective shear will support some supercells capable of large hail. Locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will also be possible if any cells sustain along the boundary. ...Northern/central Texas... Deep convective potential is still currently expected to remain limited owing to factors such as persistent capping and only modest convergence near the dryline, but it is conceivable that a couple of storms could develop near the dryline late this afternoon. Such development might be aided by a subtle mid-level impulse/speed max over New Mexico early today. This region will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks/daytime trends to see if an addition of at least low conditional-type severe probabilities are warranted given the potentially unstable air mass that will be in place near/east of the dryline. ..Guyer/Smith.. 04/10/2022 Read more

Many Nebraska state recreation areas and some wildlife management areas have temporarily banned campfires until further notice due to drought conditions and extreme fire danger. The affected state recreation and wildlife management areas include Medicine Creek, Red Willow, Swanson, Enders, Sutherland, Buffalo Bill, Lake McConaughy, Lake Ogallala, Lake Minatare, Wildcat Hills, Sherman and Victoria Springs state recreation areas and Ash Hollow State Historical Park. A temporary burn ban already is in place at Calamus state recreation area. Hunters participating in the April 9 youth shotgun opener were urged to avoid open fires for camping or cooking. Nebraskaland (Lincoln, Neb.), April 8, 2022

 At approximately 6:00 pm, April 7, 2022, a wildfire had started in Wheeler County just north of Kelton by the crossroad of Hwy 152 and FM592. The Texas A&M Forest Service (TAMFS) had gotten a request for assistance by Wheeler County EMC and worked in unified command with Wheeler Volunteer Fire Department. On initial attack, heavy equipment was engaged on the left flank north of Hwy 152 and burnout operations were being taken place. Higher winds from the north had pushed the fire south towards the Oklahoma border, multiple fire departments were on scene. Forward progression had been stopped on the first night and crews will continue to monitor and patrol the fire. The fire has been mapped and is at 8,152

 The Bull Creek Fire started on April 9th around 1:00 PM along FM 1610 just North of Lake JB Thomas. Texas A&M Forest Service (TAMFS) is working in unified command with local responders to help improve existing fire lines that the county has already put in place. There are a few creek bottoms with heavy brush that are of concern so engines will work to mop up while heavy equipment works to improve some of the indirect

The Benavidez Fire started on April 9th and Texas A&M Forest Service received a request for assistance at approximately 2:00 pm. The request came in for assistance for Texas A&M Forest Service resources support with the fire located in Duval County. Unified command was established to assist with containment and suppression

No watches are valid as of Sat Apr 9 14:04:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Apr 9 14:04:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 AM CDT Sat Apr 09 2022 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis... As a highly amplified large-scale pattern persists, a deep upper trough over the eastern CONUS is forecast to move eastward today, as an additional upstream trough amplifies over the northern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A surface low will move across portions of New England during the day, while a stronger cyclone deepens over the central High Plains in response to the amplifying upper trough. Moisture will remain quite limited across the CONUS, resulting in a generally limited/spatially confined potential for thunderstorms. ...New England... Despite limited low-level moisture (dewpoints generally in the upper 30s to low 40s F), steep lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft will support the potential for isolated to widely scattered low-topped thunderstorms today as the surface low and attendant cold front move eastward across the region. Small hail and/or locally gusty winds could accompany the stronger convective elements, but the overall severe risk is expected to remain low due to very limited buoyancy. ...Central Rockies/High Plains... Weak convection may develop across portions of the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains this afternoon/evening, as the upper-level trough amplifies across the region. Inverted-V profiles will support the potential for locally strong/gusty winds across the lower elevations, but convection is expected to remain too weak and disorganized for an appreciable severe risk. ..Guyer/Smith.. 04/09/2022 Read more

A wildfire in Gosper and Furnas counties was sparked when a dead tree fell onto power lines amid extremely high winds. Nearly 30,000 acres of land burned and firefighters were establishing a perimeter on the evening of April 8. The blaze damaged eight structures and 48 outbuildings. The area is in severe drought. KLKN-TV 8 Lincoln/Hastings/Kearney (Neb.), April 8, 2022

COMMERCE CITY — Weather permitting, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) will be conducting prescribed burning activities on the Rocky Mountain Arsenal National Wildlife Refuge beginning Tuesday, March 15th. The FWS plans to burn up to 2,686 acres over 4 weeks. The burns will be conducted between 9 a.m. and 4 p.m. Smoke will be visible for several miles from the perimeter of the Refuge and people in the area may smell smoke.  The purpose of the burns is to reinvigorate the growth of native prairie vegetation, reduce accumulated litter, manage efforts for weed control and improve habitat to sustain wildlife. Prescribed burns are also an important tool land managers use to reduce the risk of wildfire in the Wildland Urban Interface.Interagency fire crews from the FWS, local fire departments and other federal agencies will be participating in the prescribed burns. Safety is our number one priority and every burn is carefully planned to ensure the safety of the surrounding...

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Apr 8 14:03:02 UTC 2022.

No watches are valid as of Fri Apr 8 14:03:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0703 AM CDT Fri Apr 08 2022 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A highly amplified flow pattern will exist over the CONUS and nearby Canada through tonight, with severe storms not expected owing to the general prevalence of limited moisture/instability. An upper trough centered over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley will shift eastward through tonight. While moisture will be limited to the west of a cold front now over the western Atlantic, cold mid-level temperatures and diurnally steepening lapse rates will allow for the possibility of isolated low-topped thunderstorms late this morning through afternoon across the Ohio Valley and northern/central Appalachians, and near the coastal Mid-Atlantic through early evening. A secondary upper trough is forecast to move inland over the Pacific Northwest today. Related forcing for ascent and orographic lift may support isolated lightning flashes from the Washington/Oregon coasts to the northern Rockies, primarily this afternoon. ..Guyer/Jewell.. 04/08/2022 Read more

The absence of rain since October 2021 means that grass was dry in early April 2022 when it ought to be tall, lush and growing. Cattle prefer green grass. Amid drought, cattle production drops off. Cattle will eat hay, but it is not as nutritious as green grass. The lack of rain also affects the economies of small towns when farmers and ranchers are not spending as much. KRISTV NBC 6 Corpus Christi (Corpus Christi, Texas), April 6, 2022

After two dry years in northeastern Wyoming, farmers are weary, but ongoing drought and high prices for hay, feed and diesel continue to test them. Surface water supplies are scarce, and cattle grazed winter range nearly to the dirt as ranchers were reluctant to buy too much hay at exorbitant prices. It’s the same situation from Campbell County west to Johnson and Sheridan counties and into Montana. If rain does not fall to promote grass growth, producers will have to make hard decisions about what to do with their hungry livestock. A lot of Campbell County ranchers took out loans to buy hay in fall 2021. Cowboy State Daily (Lander, Wyo.), April 6, 2022

A burn ban took effect in Pottawattamie County on April 6 due to dry conditions, dead vegetation and strong winds in upcoming days. The ban will remain through planting season or until sufficient rain falls to lower the fire danger. KMA Land (Shenandoah, Iowa), April 5, 2022

The Visalia City Council authorized Stage 2 of the city’s Water Conservation Ordinance. Residents may only use sprinkler systems twice per week from March through November. Visalia Times Delta (Calif.), April 5, 2022

Three hundred three residents in Glenn County reported groundwater supply issues, and 191 reported that they had a dry well in 2021. Since the start of 2022, eight residents reported groundwater supply issues and six reported a dry well. To assist people with dry wells, the City of Orland municipal water system, partnering with the Department of Water Resources, was aiming to connect county residents. KRCR-TV ABC 7 (Redding, Calif.), March 28, 2022 Water was given away at the Orland Fire Department as wells continued to run dry and more people needed water. The deputy director for the Glenn County Sheriff’s Office of Emergency Services stated that 75 homes were without water. KHSL CBS 12 (Chico, Calif.), July 15, 2021