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Extreme drought conditions continued across the South Plains. Many farmers were still considering planting decisions based on drought conditions. Cattle continued to be supplementally fed. Many producers were thinning herds due to dry conditions and upward price trends. Several grass fires were reported. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), April 12, 2022 Wildfire danger and high wind warnings were reported in the South Plains. Very small amounts of rain fell in all counties. Subsoil and topsoil moisture levels improved but were still short. More moisture will be necessary to plant crops. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), April 5, 2022 Dry conditions continued across the South Plains. Producers were continuing to pre-water fields. Winter wheat needed moisture. Cattle were on supplemental feed. A grassfire was reported. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), March 29, 2022 Dry conditions continued across the district. All agriculture needed moisture. Farmers were also weighing their crop options according to the current drought and high input costs. Farmers were watering wheat and triticale. Dryland wheat needed relief from dry, windy conditions to be salvageable. Cattle were on supplemental feed due to lack of cool-season forages, and native grasses were still dormant. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), March 22, 2022 Conditions were very dry across the South Plains. Subsoil and topsoil moisture levels continued to be low. Dryland wheat fields were basically bare due to the prolonged drought. A few irrigated wheat fields were in fair condition, but most were in poor condition. Cattle were on supplemental feed due to the lack of grazing. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), March 15, 2022 Extremely dry conditions persisted in the South Plains. Producers with triticale and wheat began to water those crops, which were behind in maturation due to the lack of moisture. Planting conditions were unfavorable moving into the main growing season. Preplant irrigation was occurring but was sporadic. Cattle producers were supplementing herds with feedstuffs and hay. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), March 8, 2022 The South Plains received a little moisture, but conditions continued to be dry across the district. Winter wheat was in poor condition. Irrigated wheat was in fair condition. Row-crop fields were needing rain before planting. Cattle were on supplemental feed across the district. AgriLife (College Station, Texas), March 2, 2022

Rainfall amounts reached almost 2 inches in parts of North Texas, but more rainfall was needed. High winds stole some of the moisture away. Pasture and rangeland conditions were very poor to excellent. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), April 12, 2022 There was concern in North Texas about long-term drought, and producers were trying to locate hay supplies and secure contracts early. Wheat needed rain but improved significantly across the county since the latest rain events and warmer days. Pasture and rangeland were in very poor to fair condition. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), March 22, 2022 Soil moisture in North Texas ranged from short to adequate. Pasture and rangeland conditions were fair to poor. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), March 15, 2022 Soil moisture ranged from short to adequate in North Texas. Dry warm weather continued. Rains helped, but more was needed. Oats were generally in fair to good condition with a few counties reporting poor conditions. Most winter wheat fields were in poor to good condition. Pasture and rangeland conditions were very poor to fair. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), March 8, 2022 Drought remained in North Texas, and more moisture was needed. Pastures were helped by soil moisture which ranged from very short to adequate. Pasture and rangeland were fair to poor. AgriLife (College Station, Texas), March 2, 2022 Soil moisture ranged from very short to adequate. Some precipitation was received and should help winter pastures. Wheat showed some signs of relief and was mostly fair to good. Oats were reported to be very poor to good, but mostly fair. Pasture and rangeland were very poor to fair. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Feb 24, 2022 Topsoil moisture throughout North Texas was short to adequate. More rain is needed before spring. Winter wheat improved slightly across the district. Water tanks were becoming a concern and pond levels were significantly low for this time of year. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Feb 15, 2022 Topsoil moisture in North Texas is very short to short. Areas of the district were reporting extreme drought conditions. The lack of precipitation and high fertilizer prices were leading many wheat growers to consider delaying or splitting fertilizer applications based on cost and forecasts. Other wheat and oat producers reported fields were in decent shape but needed more precipitation. Pasture soil moisture and pond levels were becoming a concern. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Feb 1, 2022 Soil moisture was very short to short and declining in North Texas. Cold, dry conditions were damaging to the winter wheat and pastures. Ponds were becoming a major concern due to water level declines. Some animals got stuck while wading out in deep mud to access water. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Jan 25, 2022

Fire restrictions began at Carlsbad Caverns National Park on April 15. Charcoal and wood fires are banned, as is smoking, except in personal vehicles. The prolonged hot, dry windy weather increased the fire danger to an extreme level. Carlsbad Current Argus (N.M.), April 15, 2022

The Clifton Ranger District on the Apache-Sitgreaves National Forests is planning to proceed with the Mesa Re-Entry prescribed burn project beginning as soon as Monday, April 18th and activity could extend through the end of the month as conditions allow. The Mesa Re-Entry prescribed burn project is spread across approximately 8,000 acres, and smoke will be expected to be seen through the month of April, depending on weather conditions. The project area is bounded to the north and west by Pine Flat Road (FR 515), to the south by Upper Eagle Creek Road (FR 217), and to the east by sections of Corral Creek and Sheep Wash Canyon. Public safety notices will be posted in the vicinity of the project, and travelers should use caution when in the area. Fire planners expect to take advantage of forecasted cool temperatures and lower winds in the coming days, and the project area will include a comprehensive safety strategy including control features and pretreating vulnerable areas. Prescribed...

No watches are valid as of Fri Apr 15 13:54:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Apr 15 13:54:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe hail will be the main threat with thunderstorms over eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks region into the lower Mississippi Valley, this evening and tonight. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a long, west/east-oriented trough will extend across southern Canada. Attached cyclones are located over southern BC and northern ON near Lake Superior. The BC low temporarily will retrograde a short distance offshore, as the ON low moves northeastward toward James Bay. This will result in a continued broad fetch of essentially zonal flow over most of the CONUS, with only very weak/embedded perturbations. One of those weak shortwave troughs is evident in moisture-channel imagery over the eastern UT/western CO region. With ambient height rises forecast, this perturbation should weaken over time as it moves eastward to the southern High Plains by 00Z, and to northern OK by 12Z tomorrow. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a cold front across northern IL, northwestern MO and northeastern KS, becoming quasistationary west-southwestward go a low over southwestern KS. This boundary is expected to move southward as a cold front across the Ozarks, much of OK and the TX Panhandle through the period, as the low redevelops southeastward by 12Z over the Red River region of south-central OK/extreme north-central TX. A marine/warm front over coastal LA/southeast TX and south-central TX bounds the northern part of a maritime/tropical air mass with upper 60s to mid 70s F surface dewpoints observed this morning over deep south TX to the upper TX Coast. This boundary is forecast to move northward and become diffuse today, amidst a broad low-level warm-advection regime. As moisture returns northward through central/eastern portions of TX/OK and the Arklatex region toward the Ozarks, a dryline will become better-defined across west-central/northwest TX into western/central OK, intersecting the cold front over north-central OK around 00Z. ...Eastern OK/Ozarks region to lower Mississippi Valley... Thunderstorms should form late this afternoon near or north of the northern front, over the Ozarks region and/or northeastern OK, becoming more intense and numerous this evening as convection moves east-southeastward to southeastward across the outlook area. Large hail is the main concern, and some of the hail may become significant and especially damaging, at 2+ inches in diameter. Isolated damaging gusts also may occur. Tornado potential is non-zero, but marginal and very conditional, given the early stage of return flow (lack of more-robust moisture and of lower LCL). The dryline itself should stay capped along the great majority if not all) of its length in OK/TX. With height rises forecast (even ahead of the weak mid/upper perturbation), large-scale support other than warm advection will be modest at best, and the bulk of activity may hold until after dark as moisture content increases below LFC. A combination of theta-e advection and diurnal heating will destabilize the low levels throughout the day, beneath an inversion later at the foot of an EML evident in morning RAOBS to the west and southwest. The cap should weaken through late afternoon to around 00Z, fostering the development of a 1000-1500 J/kg peak MLCAPE corridor (locally/ briefly higher) from south-central to northeastern OK. Steepening low-level lapse rates and some vertical mixing will lead to high-LCL well-mixed boundary layers suitable for strong-severe gust potential in any cells that can develop before too much evening near-surface cooling/stabilization occurs to substantially inhibit such gusts from reaching the surface. However, the greater threat (especially with any relatively discrete activity) will be severe and locally significant/damaging hail. Wind profiles favor supercell potential to optimize updraft strength in favorable hail-growth layers, as flow veers with height and effective-shear magnitudes commonly attain the 50-65-kt range. Lingering dryness in the subcloud layer will support evaporative cooling in downdrafts and maintenance of much of the hail size from its peak in-cloud growth to the surface. Severe potential should peak during the evening, diminishing slowly overnight (and with eastward extent) as convective mode gets more messy/clustered and inflow-layer buoyancy slowly weakens (with a deepening near-surface stable layer). ..Edwards/Smith.. 04/15/2022 Read more

The Interior Department’s assistant secretary for water and science wrote to seven states in the Colorado River Basin on April 8 to request feedback on the proposal to keep 480,000 acre-feet of water in Lake Powell. She emphasized that operating the dam below 3,490 feet, the minimum power pool, has not been done. If power production ends at Glen Canyon Dam, customers such as cities, rural electric cooperatives and tribal utilities would have to turn to more expensive options for electricity. States' water managers have until April 22 to respond with feedback. Associated Press News (New York), April 12, 2022

The Middle Rio Grande Conservancy District is offering farmers compensation for leaving land fallow. The land-idling program would leave more water in the river as New Mexico works to reduce its water debt to Texas. Associated Press News (New York), April 14, 2022

The Colorado Springs Fire Department enacted a burn restriction order for the city that took effect on April 15. Drought, dry fuel moisture levels and an increase in the occurrence of grass fires in undeveloped areas of the city were reasons for the restrictions. Recreational fires are banned, as is operating small-engine equipment without a properly installed, maintained and functioning spark arrestor. Outdoor smoking is prohibited in all city-owned parks and open spaces. Colorado Springs Gazette (Colo.), April 14, 2022

No watches are valid as of Thu Apr 14 13:57:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Apr 14 13:57:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Thu Apr 14 2022 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of locally damaging winds are expected across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast States, mainly this afternoon and early evening. ...Mid-Atlantic States to southern New England... Steady height falls are expected as the region is increasingly influenced by the lead portion of an upstream upper trough over the Great Lakes. Modest low-level moisture (dewpoints generally in the upper 50s to low 60s F) will be in place across the Mid-Atlantic ahead of the eastward-moving cold front, and to the south of a wedge/backdoor front across southern parts of New England. Relatively robust heating (70s to low 80s F) will result in the development of weak to locally moderate buoyancy, with MLCAPE expected to be in the 500-1000 J/kg range. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the cold front by mid-afternoon, with convection spreading into the I-95 corridor by late afternoon or early evening. Relatively strong mid-level flow on the periphery of the large mid/upper-level low will support effective shear of 40+ kt, sufficient for some storm organization. Low-level flow is expected to remain rather weak, but relatively steep low-level lapse rates will support some damaging wind gusts potential with the strongest cells/clusters through around sunset. ...Georgia to Carolinas/southeast Virginia... Prevalent multi-layer clouds exist or are moving into the region today in advance of an eastward-moving cold front. More appreciable forcing for ascent will be directed north of the region, but weak height falls will tend to occur along with a strengthening of winds aloft, especially with northward extent. Although questions exist regarding the exact degree of destabilization due to early day cloud cover, at least modest diurnal destabilization is expected by mid/late afternoon ahead of the cold front and probable increasing thunderstorm development. This developing afternoon convection may remain somewhat disorganized due to the relatively weak deep-layer shear, but steep low-level lapse rates will support some potential for damaging winds with the strongest storms. Marginally severe hail also cannot be ruled out in areas where somewhat stronger buoyancy can materialize. ..Guyer/Smith.. 04/14/2022 Read more

Stage 1 fire restrictions took effect in Fountain and unincorporated El Paso County on April 11. Open burning, the sale or use of fireworks, and smoking outdoors are all prohibited. There are additional restrictions in Fountain. The restrictions were introduced after a number of fires over the preceding weekend. Colorado Springs Gazette (Colo.), April 11, 2022

The Side Oats fire started on April 13, 2022 at approximately 2:15 pm in Lynn CountyThe Texas A&M Forest Service is in unified command with the local

Research Fire started on April 12, 2022 at approximately 2:00 pm.Texas A&M Forest Service is in unified command with the local

On April 7, 2022, the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) declared the Overflow Prescribed Fire to be a wildfire when an unexpected fire whirl carried fire across the control lines. The fire is located southeast of Roswell, along the Pecos River corridor, in Chaves County.Prescribed fire ignitions began at 11:35 a.m., within pre-determined parameters, called a prescription. The fire whirl, a dust-devil-like phenomenon, changed the fire intensity along control lines and spread the fire across the boundary. A fire whirl is a vortex-induced by extreme heat in the fire environment and is often composed of flame, debris, and ash and can travel distances similar to tornadoes. Fuels in the area are dry grasses and salt cedar. Upon the breach of the control lines, the BLM declared the event an escaped prescribed fire, which converted to a wildfire, at 1:25 p.m. The following cooperating agencies have contributed resources to the containment of the Overflow Fire: Chaves County, Carlsbad and...

No watches are valid as of Wed Apr 13 14:46:02 UTC 2022.