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No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Apr 13 14:46:02 UTC 2022.

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0814 AM CDT WED APR 13 2022 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Mid-South and Lower/Middle Mississippi River Valley later today and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Arkansas Central and Southern Illinois Western and Middle Tennessee Southern and Eastern Missouri Western and Central Kentucky Mississippi Central and Southern Indiana Louisiana Western and Northern Alabama * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected today across the Mid-South and lower/middle Mississippi Valley and Midwest. Tornadoes, some of which will be strong, widespread and potentially significant damaging thunderstorm winds, and large hail are likely especially within the Moderate and Enhanced Risk areas. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF AR/MS/TN/MO/IL/IN/KY... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected today across the Mid-South and lower/middle Mississippi Valley and Midwest. Tornadoes, some of which will be strong, widespread and potentially significant damaging thunderstorm winds, and large hail are likely especially within the Moderate and Enhanced Risk areas. A severe-storm outbreak is expected today into tonight. Widespread severe storms are likely across a very broad north-south region from the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South into the Midwest, with atmospheric ingredients favorable for all severe hazards, including potentially significant/intense severe storms. ...Mid-South/Lower to Middle Mississippi Valley/Midwest... An upper trough, with its axis centered over the High Plains early today, will eject northeastward toward the Midwest/Ohio Valley, with a pronounced strengthening of mid/high-level jet stream winds (80-110 kt) particularly over the Ozarks/Midwest/Ohio Valley. These strong winds and related height falls/forcing for ascent will overspread a semi-moist boundary layer (low to middle 60s F surface dewpoints) across the Midwest ahead of an eastward-moving cold front, with more consequential moisture availability (upper 60s F) expected across the ArkLaTex/Mid-South/Lower Mississippi Valley, where severe/supercell-conducive wind profiles will exist even well south of the stronger portions of the polar jet. Speaking to early morning airmass characteristics, pre-dawn surface analysis in conjunction with 00z and 06z (via PERiLS project) upper-air analysis/trends reflect some air mass impacts via a persistent MCS and resultant MCV across western Tennessee and nearby ArkLaMiss. Observed meso-high and MCS-aftermath dry air in vicinity of the ArkLaMiss are expected to decay relatively early today, although these factors cast some uncertainty for the spatial details of later-day availability of rich moisture. For these reasons, along with a considerable amount of upstream early day convection/cloud cover, an upward adjustment to the current Moderate Risk category does not appear prudent at this time /13z/. That said, regarding the early day MCV/lingering outflow, an ample moisture reservoir over east Texas (850 mb dewpoints 12+C) is expected to largely replenish the broad warm/moist sector into the afternoon (reference 12z Shreveport LA observed sounding etc.), which will be beneath a notable eastward-extending elevated mixed layer. For short-term details across southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex, see Mesoscale Discussion 471. Regarding central/southern Missouri and western Illinois in the short-term, see Mesoscale Discussion 472. By midday/early afternoon, moderate to strong instability and steadily weakening CINH will be in place across Arkansas/Louisiana toward the Lower Mississippi Valley, where model forecasts have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Ample deep-layer/low-level shear will be favorable for supercells, initially capable of large hail and tornadoes. Discrete supercells ahead of the organizing squall line will have the potential for strong/intense tornadoes including some that are potentially long-track, particularly as the low-level jet further strengthens across the region later this afternoon into early evening. This corridor of stronger/longer-duration tornado concern is focused across the Mid-South/ArkLaMiss vicinity. Otherwise, potentially widespread/locally significant damaging thunderstorm wind gusts will also evolve as the squall line organizes, intensifies, and moves eastward with embedded bowing segments, although QLCS-related tornadoes can also be expected. The damaging wind/tornado risk may linger through the late-evening/overnight hours across portions of Mississippi/Alabama and southern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. This would be via a persistence of moist and strong/confluent low-level flow, although 850 mb winds are forecast to gradually weaken overnight. For areas northward into/across Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana, it appears likely that storms will increase and intensify initially across southern Missouri, as early as this morning in vicinity of the outflow-enhanced effective cold front. These storms will pose a damaging wind and some severe hail risk especially into the afternoon as they organize and race east-northeastward. The potential for tornadoes will exist as well, in dual scenarios including any pre-squall line supercellular development and within an evolving QLCS itself, especially as storms encounter a dramatically strengthening south-southwesterly low-level jet (50-60 kt at 850 mb) across southeast Missouri and areas eastward across Illinois/Indiana/Kentucky. Tornadoes and potentially widespread/locally significant damaging winds are likely especially through the afternoon and early/mid-evening hours. ...Northeast States... Low-level moistening will occur today in the wake of a northward-shifting warm front, with isolated thunderstorm development across the region this afternoon expected to be aided by a northeastward-moving shortwave trough aside from orographic lift. Weak to locally moderate destabilization across central New York into central/eastern Pennsylvania may support a few severe storms as lapse rates diurnally steepen. A few instances of wind damage and hail would be the primary hazards. ..Guyer/Smith.. 04/13/2022 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF AR/MS/TN/MO/IL/IN/KY... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected today across the Mid-South and lower/middle Mississippi Valley and Midwest. Tornadoes, some of which will be strong, widespread and potentially significant damaging thunderstorm winds, and large hail are likely especially within the Moderate and Enhanced Risk areas. A severe-storm outbreak is expected today into tonight. Widespread severe storms are likely across a very broad north-south region from the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South into the Midwest, with atmospheric ingredients favorable for all severe hazards, including potentially significant/intense severe storms. ...Mid-South/Lower to Middle Mississippi Valley/Midwest... An upper trough, with its axis centered over the High Plains early today, will eject northeastward toward the Midwest/Ohio Valley, with a pronounced strengthening of mid/high-level jet stream winds (80-110 kt) particularly over the Ozarks/Midwest/Ohio Valley. These strong winds and related height falls/forcing for ascent will overspread a semi-moist boundary layer (low to middle 60s F surface dewpoints) across the Midwest ahead of an eastward-moving cold front, with more consequential moisture availability (upper 60s F) expected across the ArkLaTex/Mid-South/Lower Mississippi Valley, where severe/supercell-conducive wind profiles will exist even well south of the stronger portions of the polar jet. Speaking to early morning airmass characteristics, pre-dawn surface analysis in conjunction with 00z and 06z (via PERiLS project) upper-air analysis/trends reflect some air mass impacts via a persistent MCS and resultant MCV across western Tennessee and nearby ArkLaMiss. Observed meso-high and MCS-aftermath dry air in vicinity of the ArkLaMiss are expected to decay relatively early today, although these factors cast some uncertainty for the spatial details of later-day availability of rich moisture. For these reasons, along with a considerable amount of upstream early day convection/cloud cover, an upward adjustment to the current Moderate Risk category does not appear prudent at this time /13z/. That said, regarding the early day MCV/lingering outflow, an ample moisture reservoir over east Texas (850 mb dewpoints 12+C) is expected to largely replenish the broad warm/moist sector into the afternoon (reference 12z Shreveport LA observed sounding etc.), which will be beneath a notable eastward-extending elevated mixed layer. For short-term details across southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex, see Mesoscale Discussion 471. Regarding central/southern Missouri and western Illinois in the short-term, see Mesoscale Discussion 472. By midday/early afternoon, moderate to strong instability and steadily weakening CINH will be in place across Arkansas/Louisiana toward the Lower Mississippi Valley, where model forecasts have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Ample deep-layer/low-level shear will be favorable for supercells, initially capable of large hail and tornadoes. Discrete supercells ahead of the organizing squall line will have the potential for strong/intense tornadoes including some that are potentially long-track, particularly as the low-level jet further strengthens across the region later this afternoon into early evening. This corridor of stronger/longer-duration tornado concern is focused across the Mid-South/ArkLaMiss vicinity. Otherwise, potentially widespread/locally significant damaging thunderstorm wind gusts will also evolve as the squall line organizes, intensifies, and moves eastward with embedded bowing segments, although QLCS-related tornadoes can also be expected. The damaging wind/tornado risk may linger through the late-evening/overnight hours across portions of Mississippi/Alabama and southern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. This would be via a persistence of moist and strong/confluent low-level flow, although 850 mb winds are forecast to gradually weaken overnight. For areas northward into/across Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana, it appears likely that storms will increase and intensify initially across southern Missouri, as early as this morning in vicinity of the outflow-enhanced effective cold front. These storms will pose a damaging wind and some severe hail risk especially into the afternoon as they organize and race east-northeastward. The potential for tornadoes will exist as well, in dual scenarios including any pre-squall line supercellular development and within an evolving QLCS itself, especially as storms encounter a dramatically strengthening south-southwesterly low-level jet (50-60 kt at 850 mb) across southeast Missouri and areas eastward across Illinois/Indiana/Kentucky. Tornadoes and potentially widespread/locally significant damaging winds are likely especially through the afternoon and early/mid-evening hours. ...Northeast States... Low-level moistening will occur today in the wake of a northward-shifting warm front, with isolated thunderstorm development across the region this afternoon expected to be aided by a northeastward-moving shortwave trough aside from orographic lift. Weak to locally moderate destabilization across central New York into central/eastern Pennsylvania may support a few severe storms as lapse rates diurnally steepen. A few instances of wind damage and hail would be the primary hazards. ..Guyer/Smith.. 04/13/2022 Read more

MD 0472 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN MO...WESTERN IL
Mesoscale Discussion 0472 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022 Areas affected...central and eastern MO...western IL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 131238Z - 131445Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A couple of strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible through the mid morning. Storm coverage and the limited magnitude of the risk will likely preclude a severe thunderstorm watch issuance in the short term (through 10am). DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a cluster of thunderstorms over central MO in the vicinity of a cold front pushing east-southeast across the lower MO Valley this morning. Surface temperatures ahead of this thunderstorm activity are in the mid to upper 60s with lower 60s dewpoints, yielding a marginally unstable airmass. There is some uncertainty regarding destabilization this morning over the mid MS Valley due in part to an extensive cloud shield and deleterious effects emanating from the puddle of convectively processed air over the lower MS Valley at least potentially affecting this region. Nonetheless, as an intense mid-level shortwave trough over the TX Panhandle approaches this region later today, an uptick in both storm coverage and intensity is expected. However, in the meantime, the overall limited buoyancy in place across the mid MS Valley through mid morning will likely limit both the magnitude and coverage to a potential severe threat. Marginally severe hail and wind damage would be the hazards with this activity. ..Smith/Guyer.. 04/13/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...SGF... LAT...LON 37899301 39549185 39849078 39639013 39199003 38479058 37579255 37899301 Read more

Since early March, about 100 pole top fires have occurred in San Antonio. The problem happens when rain has not fallen for a while and allowed dust and dirt to build up on insulators. The moisture eventually returns, allows the material to conduct electricity , which can spark a fire. Two such fires caused power outages on April 12. San Antonio Express News (Texas), April 12, 2022 Nearly 30 electrical poles in San Antonio caught fire on the morning of March 21. After some dry weather that allowed dust to build up on poles and lines, the area received some light rain, causing some arching and pole top fires that brought down lines or caused transformers to blow. Up to 14,000 customers were without power. KSAT-TV ABC 12 San Antonio (Texas), March 21, 2022

Research Fire started on April 12, 2022 at approximately 2:00 pm.Texas A&M Forest Service is in unified command with the local

 On Monday, April 11th, Texas A&M Forest Service was requested to assist with a wildfire in a pine plantation located approximately three miles northwest of Crockett, TX between Highway 287 and 229. Crews arrived on scene at approximately 9:00 am and found the fire to be approximately 200 acres with low fire behavior, and not threatening any homes or structures. The fire is believed to have been burning for at least two days prior to the request call, and the cause of ignition is currently under

 Texas A&M Forest Service responded to a request for assistance on the Training Area 23 wildfire in Bexar County. The fire ignited on April 9, 2022.Texas A&M Forest Service is working in unified command with Joint Base San Antonio's Fire Department and initially responded on April 9 with a task force out of Fredericksburg (2 dozers, 2 engines), a Texas Intrastate Fire Mutual Aid System (TIFMAS) Strike Team (5 engines), 3 single engine air tankers, 1 air attack platform, 1 lead plane, 1 type 1 helicopter and 2 large airtankers at this time.  Additional TIFMAS Strike Teams have joined the suppression efforts on April 10.  Fire fighters continue to work with aircraft and heavy equipment to suppress this fire. Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/JointBaseSanAntonio Twitter:  @JointBaseSanAntonioInstagram:

No watches are valid as of Tue Apr 12 13:50:02 UTC 2022.

MD 0453 CONCERNING BLIZZARD FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MONTANA...FAR NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
Mesoscale Discussion 0453 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0848 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022 Areas affected...Portions of eastern Montana...far northwestern South Dakota...and much of western North Dakota. Concerning...Blizzard Valid 121348Z - 121745Z SUMMARY...Blizzard conditions are beginning across portions of western North Dakota, far northwest South Dakota, and far eastern Montana. DISCUSSION...Moderate to heavy snow has begun across a broad swath of the northern Plains. Winds are already strong (sustained 25 knots with gusts 35 to 40 knots) and are expected to strengthen through the afternoon. Blizzard conditions have already been reported at KHEI and KBHK this morning. Widespread blizzard conditions are expected across much of western North Dakota, far eastern Montana, and far northwest South Dakota later this morning and this afternoon. Snowfall rates up to 2 to 3 inches per hour are expected late this morning and into early afternoon across central North Dakota with these conditions expected to persist for several hours before lifting into northern North Dakota. Moderate snow will remain in its wake with snowfall rates around 1 inch per hour persisting well beyond this afternoon. Some locations are forecast to receive over 2 feet of snow with persistent blizzard to near blizzard strength winds and visibilities expected for the next 24 to 48 hours. This is expected to cause extreme impacts across the region. ..Bentley.. 04/12/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... LAT...LON 46110471 47090440 47710363 48360263 48470059 48179998 47319973 46400040 45760233 45560373 45550444 45690482 46110471 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0813 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2022 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Middle Missouri Valley and Midwest this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Iowa Eastern Nebraska Northwest Missouri Eastern Kansas Southern Minnesota Far Southeast South Dakota * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Widespread large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are expected late this afternoon and tonight across a broad portion of the southern/central Plains into the Mississippi Valley. Some of the tornadoes could be strong. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL IOWA... ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS... CORRECTED FOR NDFD THUNDER GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are expected late this afternoon and tonight across a broad portion of the southern/central Plains into the Mississippi Valley. Some of the tornadoes could be strong. ...Central Plains/Middle Missouri Valley/Upper Midwest... Portions of west-central/north-central Iowa have been upgraded to a Categorical Moderate Risk, with a somewhat focused potential for tornadoes along with large hail and damaging winds expected late this afternoon and evening near the surface low and nearby triple point/warm front vicinity. Potentially intense thunderstorm development, including surface-based convection and elevated storms to the north of the northward-shifting warm front, is expected by late afternoon across eastern Nebraska/northwest Iowa/southeast Minnesota generally near the surface low/triple point. Moisture return across the warm sector will be relatively modest (generally upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints), but will be sufficient for the development of moderate buoyancy due to the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and relatively cool temperatures aloft. Wind profiles will be quite favorable for supercells near the triple point and in the vicinity of the warm front, with very strong deep-layer shear and enlarged low-level hodographs. Any discrete supercells that develop within this regime will be capable of all severe hazards, including the potential for strong tornadoes and very large hail. Later this evening, more widespread/southward-spatially expanding convection is expected along the eastward-surging cold front, resulting in an increasing damaging wind threat this evening. Damaging winds aside, a tornado threat will also exist with any embedded circulations within the line of frontal convection given the robust magnitude of low-level winds (upwards of 60-70 kt) in the lowest 2-3 km AGL. Overall storm intensity will tend to diminish by early in the overnight. ...Central/North Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley... A southern-stream/lead shortwave trough nearing the south Texas/Mexico border vicinity this morning will continue northeastward toward the ArkLaMiss through evening. Storms may develop as soon as mid-afternoon near the dryline as it extends across north/west-central Texas. Effective shear of 35-45 kt will favor a few eastward-moving supercells and/or organized clusters into late afternoon/early evening. Moderate-to-strong buoyancy and steep mid-level lapse rates will support a threat of very large hail and severe wind gusts with the strongest cells/clusters. Any supercells that can persist into the richer low-level moisture east of the dryline may also pose some tornado threat. An additional/somewhat separate corridor of potentially severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening farther east across far east Texas into Louisiana and southern Arkansas. While the details are a bit unclear, strengthening deep-layer shear and moderate buoyancy would be supportive of at least some hail/wind potential, and low-level shear/helicity, enhanced by a diurnally sustained branch of the low-level jet, may be sufficient for a couple of tornadoes as well. ...Central/eastern Oklahoma and south-central Kansas... A conditionally favorable supercell environment will exist late this afternoon into evening along and ahead of the dryline that will exist from central Kansas southward into west-central Oklahoma. However, this region will be between the main mid-level trough and surface low to the north, and the ejecting low-amplitude shortwave trough to the south. Most convection-allowing models continue to show very little signal for deep convective initiation in this region. However, some global guidance such as multiple runs of the ECMWF depict isolated development across central Oklahoma, and this may be plausible given ample post-dryline heating/mixing and confluence/modest convergence near the dryline. If/where storms develop and sustain, localized intense/significant severe weather may occur. Very large hail would be a possibility and a tornado risk will likely exist as well, especially if any storms are sustained through early/mid-evening as low-level hodographs further enlarge. ..Guyer/Smith.. 04/12/2022 Read more

A Barton County farmer is waiting to fertilize and plant because the soil is too dry. Hardly any rain has fallen all winter. Brownfield Ag News (Jefferson City, Mo.), April 11, 2022

The 1,000+ farmers and ranchers getting water from the Klamath Reclamation Project will get about one-seventh the normal amount this year amid a historic drought. The water will begin to flow on April 15. Irrigators were shocked and angry, wondering if they could survive another year of meager water supplies. Salmon downstream will get about half of the usual amount of water if the reservoir was full. The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation announced $15 million in relief for affected farmers and $5 million for Native American tribes as a result of its decision and warned farmers not to take water beyond what was ordered or risk further irrigation reductions and legal action. Inflow to the Upper Klamath Lake is at a record low, and water allocations could be reduced if drought conditions worsen this summer. Increased groundwater pumping since late summer 2021 has resulted in hundreds of domestic wells running dry. Associated Press News (New York), April 11, 2022

No watches are valid as of Mon Apr 11 13:49:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Apr 11 13:49:01 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS/EASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into tonight from parts of northeast Texas to the Ozarks and Mid-South, with the greatest threat expected over parts of far eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. ...Arkansas/eastern Oklahoma to Mid-South... Broad cyclonic mid/high-level flow will persist over the region today, although there will be a tendency for upper heights to rise regionally, particularly late today through tonight. A cold front will continue to slowly advance southeastward across the Ozarks/Mid-South and toward southeast Oklahoma today, although it is expected to return northward as a warm front tonight in response to lee cyclogenesis across the north-central High Plains. A byproduct of an early overnight MCS near the I-44 corridor, an outflow boundary also continues to settle southward/decay across north-central Arkansas and east-central Oklahoma in the predawn hours. A few stronger storms could occur early today across northern Arkansas northeastward toward the lower Ohio Valley, but a more appreciable severe risk is likely to unfold later this afternoon, farther to the south-southwest. The outflow boundary will likely further stall/decay during the day, but its residual influence/imprint, particularly where it intercepts the front, is a probable focus for at least widely scattered deep convective development by late afternoon across east/southeast Oklahoma into western/northern Arkansas. Upwards of 2500 J/kg MLCAPE may exist by peak heating, particularly across southeast Oklahoma and southwest Arkansas. Some diurnal weakening of the strong early day southwesterly low-level jet will likely occur today, although mid-level winds will remain strong (40-45 kt 700-500 mb) particularly at a latitude including Arkansas and southeast Oklahoma. Effective shear of 40-50 kt will support supercells where storms do develop later today. Large hail can be expected along with the potential for tornadoes, with low-level SRH/hodograph curvature maximized near the boundary(ies). Storms should remain semi-discrete for a duration through late afternoon/early evening, particularly given the relatively weak forcing-for-ascent influences. Even so, some eventual upscale growth is probable this evening with at least some increased potential for wind damage. ...Central/north Texas... A conditionally favorable environment for supercells will be in place along and east of a dryline into parts of central and north Texas this afternoon/evening. The potential for deep convective initiation remains highly uncertain, however, under the influence of height rises and residual mid-level capping. Regardless, at least a couple of late afternoon/early evening storms are plausible given modest near-dryline convergence and ample post-dryline heating/mixing. Should initiation occur and sustain, a conditional risk of very large hail and locally severe wind gusts will be present with any sustained supercell. ..Guyer/Smith.. 04/11/2022 Read more

 The Cashew Fire started on April 9th and Texas A&M Forest Service received a request for assistance at approximately 3:30 pm. The request came in for assistance for Texas A&M Forest Service resources support with the fire located in Wichita County. Unified command was established to assist with containment and suppression efforts. Fire resources are on scene assessing the

No watches are valid as of Sun Apr 10 14:04:01 UTC 2022.