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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL AND EAST TX... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds are possible, focused on central to eastern Texas and adjacent states. The primary severe threat should begin in mid to late afternoon and last through tonight. A few tornadoes could be strong. ...Northwest to south-central TX into far southern OK... A blossoming of elevated convective development is expected by midday as mid-level height falls overspread a strengthening warm theta-e advection regime. This activity will delineate the northern bounds of surface-based thunderstorms later today, with a pronounced baroclinic zone likely becoming established near the Red River border of OK/TX by 00Z. Along the western extent of this baroclinic zone will lie a surface cyclone drifting from the southern TX Panhandle near/south of the Childress vicinity. As robust mid-level DCVA occurs with a shortwave impulse ejecting out of the basal portion of an amplified trough, surface-based thunderstorm development is anticipated towards early to mid-afternoon near the triple-point cyclone and arcing south along the dryline during the late afternoon across portions of central to south-central TX. With so much preceding precipitation falling within an initially dry boundary-layer in OK, the corridor of surface-based buoyancy near the triple-point cyclone is expected to be narrow. Nevertheless, cooling 500-mb temperatures and steep mid-level lapse rates should foster potential for a few semi-discrete supercells along this upper portion of the Red River Valley. Severe hail and brief tornadoes will probably be the main hazards as convection likely spreads into a less favorable environment with northern extent in OK. Convection farther southeast and south from north-central to south-central TX will have a progressively larger warm/moist sector ahead of the dryline. With MLCAPE likely to reach 1500-2000 J/kg in conjunction with an approaching 80-kt 500-mb speed max, several supercells should develop with a primary initial threat of very large hail. Much of the convective development will initially be west of the strong low-level jet across eastern TX/OK. The bulk of guidance suggests the low-level jet will shift east-northeast during the evening which suggests that low-level hodograph curvature and attendant SRH, while adequate for tornadoes, may not be particularly large for the supercells initiating along the dryline. Nevertheless, hourly HRRR runs along with the 00Z HRW-ARW are insistent on potential for a couple long-tracked supercells emanating northeast from the I-35 corridor in central/south-central TX into parts of east TX. If confidence increases in this scenario occurring, it is plausible that a mesoscale corridor of cat 4-MDT risk may be warranted in later outlooks. ...Ark-La-Tex to southeast TX... With time this evening, one or more linear clusters with embedded supercells and bowing structures should evolve from a combination of initial dryline storms and regenerative convection within the warm conveyor. A rather messy mode of severe hazards is expected to accompany this evolution with an elongated slow-moving QLCS anticipated overnight, as the primary shortwave impulse shifts towards the Lower MO Valley and a secondary lobe hangs back near the TX/Mexico border. Amid an expansive swath of 50-60 kt low-level flow and rich western Gulf boundary-layer moisture, all severe hazards will remain possible through the overnight, although probably on a more isolated basis in terms of coverage. ..Grams/Gleason.. 03/21/2022 Read more

This page will no longer be updated.Firefighters are currently engaged in wildfire suppression in McMullen County, located approximately 24 miles southwest of Jourdanton. The Three Sections Fire started on March 20, 2022 at approximately 2:15 pm under extreme fire conditions. Texas A&M Forest Service is in unified command with local fire departments. The fire is burning in grass and brushy fuels with high potential for growth. Multiple aviation resources are on scene assisting with containment efforts. 

Hay prices were $50 to $100 higher per ton than usual after drought in northern Minnesota and the western U.S. in 2021 cut into hay supplies. One dairy farmer in Hinckley was feeding his cows two-year old hay and buying poorer quality hay due to the premium prices. Duluth News Tribune (Minn.), March 21, 2022

Ongoing drought in the Colorado River Basin left Lake Powell at about 25% of capacity. The US Geological Survey and the Bureau of Reclamation have found that the reservoir’s capacity has been diminishing due to the buildup of sediments from the Colorado and San Juan rivers. Storage capacity has decreased about 33,270 acre-feet, or 11 billion gallons, annually between 1963 and 2018, amounting to nearly 7% of the potential storage capacity since 1963. The level of Lake Powell fell below the critical threshold of 3,525 feet the week of March 14, increasing concerns about water supply and hydropower generation for millions of people. CNN (Atlanta, Ga.), March 21, 2022 Lake Powell, second largest reservoir in the U.S., dropped below the critical threshold of 3,525 feet on March 15, with a buffer of just 35 feet of water before hydropower production ends. The drop below the critical threshold should be temporary and alleviated by snowmelt. Worst-case projections show Powell dropping below 3,525 feet again as early as August 2022. At that point, emergency water releases from Blue Mesa in Colorado and other reservoirs might be needed again like was done during the 2021 summer when water was released from several upper Colorado River reservoirs to bolster the level of Lake Powell. Those releases added about six feet of water to Lake Powell. Colorado Public Radio (Centennial, Colo.), March 16, 2022 Lake Powell is on track to fall below 3,525 feet above sea level between March 10 and 16. The 3,525 mark is important because it is the “target elevation” for the reservoir, threatening the ability of Glen Canyon Dam to generate hydropower and provide power for Wyoming, Utah, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, and Nebraska. Below 3,525 feet is the 35-foot buffer for emergency response to prevent Lake Powell from falling below the minimum pool elevation of 3,490 feet, the lowest point at which hydropower generation can occur. When Lake Powell drops below 3,525 feet, the Bureau of Reclamation would need to release water from reservoirs as the spring snowmelt wanes at the end of summer. CNN US (Atlanta, Ga.), March 3, 2022

This page will no longer be updated. For further information on the Cedar Mountain Fire, go to the Eastland Complex InciWeb page: https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/8010/  The Cedar Mountain fire started at 3:00pm off I-20 and spread to the north towards Highway 6 and Cisco. Local resources responded and began suppression along with resources from the Eastland Complex. With the high winds and low humidity fire behavior is very active burning through critically dry fuels. Fire has jumped highway 6 and is burning towards the North

This page will no longer be updated. For further information on the Blowing Basin Fire, go to the Eastland Complex InciWeb page: https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/8010/ The Blowing Basin Fire started at 12:30 pm North East of Cross Plains, TX. The fire quickly began burning through tall grass and thick oaks in the area. Resources from the Wheat Field fire on the Eastland Complex and local resources quickly responded to the fire and began suppression. High winds and low humidity will make fire behavior challenging for firefighters

The State Water Project allocation in California was trimmed to 5% of requested supplies from 15% due to a historically dry start to 2022 with no significant weather on the horizon for March to increase the snowpack. Statewide reservoir levels are about 70 percent of average. The statewide Sierra snowpack has dipped to 55% of average for this date with most of that snow deposited by December snowstorms. California Department of Water Resources (Sacramento, Calif.), March 18, 2022 December’s winter storms deepened the snowpack, allowing California’s State Water Project allocation to be increased from 0% to 15% of requested amounts for 2022. Since January has been dry, water conservation is still requested as most state reservoirs were still below historic averages. Associated Press News (New York), Jan 20, 2022 California cities and farms should not expect to receive water from the State Water Project (SWP) in 2022, announced the state officials. This is the earliest date that the Department of Water Resources has announced a 0% water allocation, indicative of just how serious drought conditions are as reservoirs plunge to record low levels. Mandatory restrictions will be put in place if the winter dryness persists. Twenty-nine water districts in California typically request water from the SWP. Partial allocations are delivered, depending on snowfall and reservoir storage. The initial allocation in December 2020 was 10% and was reduced to 5% in March 2021. Seven districts that requested water will get some of the roughly 340,000 acre-feet to be divvied this year among the districts for critical health and safety needs, like fire suppression. The Metropolitan Water District in Southern California, providing water for about 19 million people, will receive some water. The system was intended to deliver more than 4.2 million acre-feet. Gov. Gavin Newsom declared a statewide drought emergency in October and urged water conservation. Associated Press News (New York), Dec 1, 2021

Crook and Jefferson counties made drought declarations already, while Deschutes County just declared drought on March 16. Low snowpack and dry soil in Central Oregon could be portending the driest summer yet after two very hot, dry years. Snowpack was about 74% of normal, according to the Natural Resources Conservation Service, and water year precipitation to date was 84%. The Bend Bulletin (Ore.), March 17, 2022 Low snowpack in the mountains and low water levels in reservoirs have led to very early requests for drought declarations from eight districts in central Oregon. There simply is not enough water to keep irrigation canals full during the April through October growing season. Central Oregon Daily (Bend, Ore.), March 3, 2022

 Indiana Dunes National Park is planning 6 prescribed fires for the Spring of

Some of the boat ramps at Lake McClure were closed as they no longer reached the water. The reservoir is about 29% full and 56% of the historical average. Merced Sun-Star (Calif.), March 16, 2022

The incredibly dry start to 2022 is being felt by irrigation districts and farmers. The Merced Irrigation District will deliver water according to schedule, but less will be delivered and the water will cost more than other years. The surface water allocation for the 2022 season will be 1.1 acre-feet per acre for in-district growers at a cost of $100 per acre foot. The price the past two years was $50 per acre foot. The rate hike is due to bond requirements and MID policies to maintain financial reserves as a buffer against the impacts of multiple dry years. At Lake McClure, the primary water supply for growers, the reservoir is about 29% full and 56% of the historical average. Merced Sun-Star (Calif.), March 16, 2022

The incredibly dry start to 2022 is being felt by irrigation districts and farmers. The Fresno Irrigation District announced that it will conserve water by postponing the start of its water deliveries. No agricultural water deliveries will take place in March or April. The decision on the start date of the water deliveries will be made in early April. Merced Sun-Star (Calif.), March 16, 2022

Southwest Colorado topsoil moisture was rejuvenated from recent snow, but crop and pasture conditions still reflect the water shortage. Kiowa County Press (Eads, Colo.), March 16, 2022

 The 3 Oaks fire started around 3pm on March 14th, 2022. Local Fire departments responded quickly and requested Texas A&M Forest Service. Two task forces responded to the fire and brought air resources on scene to begin suppressing the fire. This fire quickly grew larger due to the high winds and is reported to be six miles long and two miles wide. Extreme fire behavior was showcased the first night including active runs, long distance spotting, and 30 foot flame

The Christine Fire started at 2:35 PM on March 15th. Local fire departments quickly got on scene and began work. Texas A&M Forest Service was requested for support and arrived on scene with heavy equipment. The fire is largely fuel driven and is burning south of the town of Christine, TX. The fire was caused by a roadside start that moved into the tall grass and brush that is driving the fire. Weather conditions in the area will continue to be problematic tonight and in to tomorrow for

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No watches are valid as of Wed Mar 16 14:22:02 UTC 2022.