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...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO STAY AWAY FROM THE COAST... As of 10:00 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 the center of Blas was located near 13.9, -102.1 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 14 2022 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 141456 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022022 1500 UTC TUE JUN 14 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 102.1W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 102.1W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 102.1W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 14.2N 102.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 14.6N 102.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 14.9N 103.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.4N 104.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.0N 106.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.6N 108.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 17.9N 111.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 18.5N 114.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 102.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/BUCCI

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0822 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...MIDWEST...AND MID ATLANTIC STATES.... CORRECTED FOR NDFD/WEB GRAPHICS ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds are possible within the northern Red River Valley vicinity, portions of the Mid-Atlantic, and portions of the Mid-Missouri Valley. ...ND/MN... A long-lived cluster of intense thunderstorms is tracking northeastward across eastern ND. These storms are expected to persist and move into Saskatchewan by late morning. Locally damaging wind gusts and hail will remain possible in these areas. Please refer to WW 366 and MCD 1162 for further details. ...Mid-Atlantic... Multiple severe MCSs from last night have diminished, with the remnant light precipitation and MCVs noted over WV/western VA/western NC. This activity will track into a very moist and potentially unstable air mass from SC into MD, where at least isolated thunderstorm development is expected. Any storms that can become robust will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. However, model guidance does not provide much confidence in the details of the scenario this afternoon. ...NE/IA/MN... A cold front is sagging southeastward across parts of the central Dakotas. This boundary is expected to stall over NE/IA, providing a focus for late afternoon thunderstorm development. Initial activity will likely be supercellular, but will move northward into the cooler boundary layer air and be slightly elevated. Nevertheless, large hail and locally damaging winds are possible. By mid-evening, storms are expected to be rather widespread along the boundary, with an increasing risk of locally damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Dean.. 06/14/2022 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 141154
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Jun 14 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Two-E, located a few hundred miles south of the
southwest coast of Mexico.

Off the coast of Central America:
Showers and thunderstorms off the coast of Central America
associated with a trough of low pressure have become better
organized overnight. Further development of this system is possible
while it drifts northwestward, and it could become a tropical
depression during the next couple of days. Environmental conditions
are forecast to become less conducive for development by the end of
the week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are
possible across portions of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala, and
southern Mexico during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Two-E are issued under WMO header
WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Two-E are issued under WMO header
WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Bucci

As extreme drought worsens in the Corpus Christi area, Lake Corpus Christi and Choke Canyon were at 42% of capacity, down from 43.7% a week ago. The trigger for stage 1 water restrictions is 40%. The city manager said that they plan to declare stage 1 restrictions at the June 14 city council meeting. City officials were actively looking for a secondary water source and were concerned about drought. The city manager urged the public to start practicing water conservation as stage 1 restrictions neared. KIII-TV3 South Texas (Corpus Christi, Texas), June 13, 2022

Drought in Nebraska continued to affect pastures and wheat. Pastures were still behind in production and probably will not be able to catch up after a cold, dry spring. Brownfield Online (Jefferson City, Mo.), June 13, 2022

Communities in California’s San Gabriel Mountains were ordered to evacuate ahead of the Sheep Fire, which began on June 11 in the Angeles National Forest. The blaze continued to burn in dense vegetation and steep terrain amid erratic winds. Through the morning of June 13, the fire consumed 990 acres. Reuters (New York), June 13, 2022

More wildlife was making its way into local neighborhoods for the food and water, according to local Texas game wardens. A bobcat was seen on a trail cam in the backyard of a Kings Crossing neighborhood on Corpus Christi’s South Side. People were encouraged to put out water for wildlife. KRISTV NBC 6 Corpus Christi (Texas), June 13, 2022

The Skates Fire is located 13 miles northeast of Silver City on the Gila National Forest. Signal Peak Lookout reported the fire Friday at 4:11 p.m. There are no evacuations currently associated with the

At the end of May, the beef cow slaughter for the year-to-date was 15% higher compared to last year. Range and pasture conditions nationally remained at the worst level ever for this time of year, although drought has eased in some areas, allowing for pasture conditions to improve. Cooler temperatures in northern areas, along with skimpy fertilizer use, were contributing to delayed and reduced pasture and hay production. In recent weeks, the slaughter data compared to last year has been increasing as limited pasture and hay production has become more apparent. Drought in 2021 resulted in a 9% increase in the beef cow slaughter, compared to the previous year, and a net culling of 11.6%. Drought hastened herd liquidation in 2021, leading to a 2.33% reduction in the beef cow herd in 2021. Drovers Cattle Network (Lenexa, Kan.), June 13, 2022

The Cerro Bandera Fire is burning on private land within the National Park Service El Malpais National Monument boundaries near Highway 53 in Cibola County. The fire was first reported by staff at the Cibola National Forest's Oso Ridge Lookout on June 9, 2022 at approximately 11:00 a.m. The fire is burning in dry grass and pinon-juniper type fuels. Numerous personnel from the Forestry Division, Cibola County, USDA Forest Service, and National Parks Service are on the scene with support from firefighting aircraft. The cause of the fire is under investigation. IR flight was run last night and our current acreage is 939 acres. No increase of acres from yesterdays mapped acres. At this time we are still showing 25% containment, and forward progress has been stopped.Suppression efforts throughout the fire will continue with mop up and securing of fire

The Double Fire was reported at 4:13 p.m. on June 12. It is predicted that the Double Fire and Haywire Fire, a fire that originated 7.5 miles northwest of Doney Park, will merge.Current resources: Part of the Haywire Fire resources responding.Closures: The Coconino National Forest has closed nearly the entire northern portion of the forest from Interstate 40 toward the north. View the Closure Order and map here. Additionally, Arizona Department of Transportation has closed a portion of Highway 89, which restricts vehicles from traveling north and south in the area of the fire. Check www.az511.com for status

The City of Alice entered stage 1 of its drought contingency plan on June 10 as the level of Lake Corpus Christi dropped below 88 feet. The public is asked to voluntarily conserve 10%. Two other communities, Mathis and Beeville, also draw water from Lake Corpus Christi. KRISTV NBC 6 Corpus Christi (Texas), June 12, 2022

No watches are valid as of Mon Jun 13 14:09:02 UTC 2022.

MD 1142 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN MN...NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST IA...FAR SOUTHWEST WI
Mesoscale Discussion 1142 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0906 AM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022 Areas affected...Southern MN...North-Central/Northeast IA...Far Southwest WI Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 131406Z - 131600Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated large hail possible for the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low over western NE, with a warm front extending northeastward from this low into northwest IA and then back southwestward through central and southeast IA into central IL. A low-level jet exists south of this warm front across the southern and central Plains, contributing to strong warm-air advection across this frontal zone. Regional 12Z soundings reveal a very moist low-level air mass beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, resulting in very strong buoyancy. This buoyancy in tandem with the warm-air advection is supporting the development of robust thunderstorms from southern MN into north-central/northeast IA. Vertical shear is moderate throughout the region, with the overall environment supportive of supercells capable of large hail. Low-level stability and current storm motion suggest these storms are currently elevated, although some transition to a more surface-based character is possible over the next few hours as the air mass heats. Until then, large hail will be the primary severe hazards. As the storms become more surface-based, the primary severe threat will transition to strong wind gusts. Overall coverage of severe remains uncertain, particularly in the near-term, with additional uncertainty regarding the when/if storms will become more surface-based. Convective trends are being monitored closely for possible watch issuance. ..Mosier/Guyer.. 06/13/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... LAT...LON 44399416 44319266 44039171 43139072 42159054 41699086 41679169 42349313 42999448 43299565 43669602 44159569 44399416 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0724 AM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA...AND WESTERN OHIO.... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Monday across parts of the northern Plains, and from portions of the Midwest into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. Some of the winds could be significantly severe (75+ mph) across parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley Monday afternoon/evening. ...Upper MS into Great Lakes region... A broad upper ridge remains over the southern US today, with the primary band of westerlies extending from the Dakotas eastward into the Great Lakes region. Early morning model guidance suggests a shortwave trough and associated 40-50 knot midlevel speed max is currently over IA. Scattered thunderstorms have been occurring in vicinity of this feature, along with a couple of MCVs noted in radar imagery. Ahead of this shortwave trough, a warm front is lifting northward across IA/IL/IN/OH. Dewpoints in the 70s and strong heating to the south of the front will yield high CAPE values of 3000-4000 J/kg later today. Present indications are that either remnants of the ongoing convection over IA/MN or new storms will intensify by early afternoon over southern WI/northern IL and rapidly become severe. These storms will track along the retreating baroclinic zone across Lake MI and into portions of Lower MI, and northern IN/OH during the afternoon. It appears possible that a long-lived bowing MCS could result in a swath of considerable wind damage along this corridor. However, recent CAM solutions continue to vary on the details of the track. Have added an ENH area to address this threat. The ENH may need to be extended farther east in later outlooks as clarity in the evolution of the MCS becomes greater. Along with the damaging wind risk, the strongest cells may produce large hail and a few tornadoes. ...Dakotas... A surface low is forecast to deepen over eastern WY this afternoon while a cold front moves across the northern Rockies and high Plains. Thunderstorms are expected to form along the front by early evening over western SD/ND and track northeastward. Vertical shear profiles will be favorable for supercell storms capable of all hazards over portions of ND. Farther south, models suggest that storms that form will be behind the cold front, with hail being the main concern. ..Hart/Broyles.. 06/13/2022 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 131151
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jun 13 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Off the coast of southwestern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of
the southwestern coast of Mexico is producing a large area of
showers and thunderstorms. While recent satellite-derived winds
indicate the low does not yet have a well-defined center,
environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional
development. A tropical depression is likely to form in the next day
or two while the system moves slowly northwestward off the
southwestern coast of Mexico. Additional information on this system,
including gale warnings, can be found in high seas forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Off the coast of Central America:
A trough of low pressure has formed a couple of hundred miles
southwest of the coast of Nicaragua and is producing a disorganized
area of showers and thunderstorms. Some additional development of
this system is possible over the next few days as long as it remains
offshore, moving slowly northwestward near the coast of Central
America and southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Papin

To support Lake Powell, the Bureau of Reclamation will release 500,000 acre-feet of water this year from the Flaming Gorge Reservoir upstream to flow into Lake Powell. Another 480,000 acre-feet of water will also be kept in Lake Powell rather than released to Lake Mead. These two measures will keep 980,000 acre-feet in Lake Powell and raise the water level by 16 feet, allowing hydropower production to continue. Lakes Powell and Mead are both at record lows. Reuters (New York), May 3, 2022 Flaming Gorge reservoir in Wyoming will release 500,000 acre-feet of water under a new Drought Operations Plan to bolster alarmingly low water levels at Lake Powell. The plan, approved April 21 by the Upper Colorado River Commission, does not require any water to be released from Blue Mesa near Gunnison, but also does not eliminate the possibility. The 2022 Drought Operations Plan, agreed to by the four Upper Basin states of Colorado, New Mexico, Wyoming and Utah must still be approved by the secretary of the interior. The Colorado Sun (Denver, Colo.), April 21, 2022

 Crews re-engaged fire.  Grounds resources worked fire perimeter.  Aviation resources made retardant drops and water drops.  Fire 107 mapped acres and 100

No watches are valid as of Sun Jun 12 15:17:01 UTC 2022.