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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon to early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes is evident over parts of the Dakotas and for large hail along the Nebraska-Kansas border. ...Dakotas/Western Minnesota... Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central SD into central ND later today. In the wake of ongoing precipitation this morning, renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low/Slight Risk could plausibly acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential. Overall intensities should diminish later this evening. ...Central Great Plains... In the wake of overnight storms, boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the NE/KS border Slight Risk area. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper trough should tend to temper overall coverage. ...Mid-South/Mid-MS Valley... Ample buoyancy along and southwest of a warm front should aid in a few strong gusts and small hail with scattered late afternoon storms. Deep-layer shear will remain rather weak within the mid-level ridge, suggesting a predominant pulse mode, supporting a minimal threat for organized severe storms. ..Bunting/Broyles.. 09/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon to early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes is evident over parts of the Dakotas and for large hail along the Nebraska-Kansas border. ...Dakotas/Western Minnesota... Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central SD into central ND later today. In the wake of ongoing precipitation this morning, renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low/Slight Risk could plausibly acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential. Overall intensities should diminish later this evening. ...Central Great Plains... In the wake of overnight storms, boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the NE/KS border Slight Risk area. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper trough should tend to temper overall coverage. ...Mid-South/Mid-MS Valley... Ample buoyancy along and southwest of a warm front should aid in a few strong gusts and small hail with scattered late afternoon storms. Deep-layer shear will remain rather weak within the mid-level ridge, suggesting a predominant pulse mode, supporting a minimal threat for organized severe storms. ..Bunting/Broyles.. 09/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon to early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes is evident over parts of the Dakotas and for large hail along the Nebraska-Kansas border. ...Dakotas/Western Minnesota... Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central SD into central ND later today. In the wake of ongoing precipitation this morning, renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low/Slight Risk could plausibly acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential. Overall intensities should diminish later this evening. ...Central Great Plains... In the wake of overnight storms, boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the NE/KS border Slight Risk area. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper trough should tend to temper overall coverage. ...Mid-South/Mid-MS Valley... Ample buoyancy along and southwest of a warm front should aid in a few strong gusts and small hail with scattered late afternoon storms. Deep-layer shear will remain rather weak within the mid-level ridge, suggesting a predominant pulse mode, supporting a minimal threat for organized severe storms. ..Bunting/Broyles.. 09/14/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 141138
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Sep 14 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Baja California Peninsula (Ex-Mario):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has become better organized with
the the remnants of Mario, located a few hundred miles south of the
Baja California Peninsula. Earlier satellite wind data also
indicated the circulation had become better defined. If the ongoing
deep convection persists, Mario is likely to become a tropical
cyclone again, and advisories may be re-initiated as soon as later
this morning as the system moves slowly westward at around 10 mph.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could develop well offshore of the coast of
southern or southwestern Mexico early this week. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development as
the low tracks west-northwestward around 10 to 15 mph.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

South and Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a weak area of low
pressure well southeast of the Hawaiian Islands have decreased since
yesterday. Environmental conditions are forecast to become less
conducive for development during the next few days as the system
moves westward around 10 mph, and the potential for tropical cyclone
development appears to be decreasing.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Papin

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears low during the Day 4-8/Wed-Sun period. Medium range guidance is in fairly good agreement that the upper shortwave trough over the northern/central Plains Day 4 will develop an upper low as it meanders slowly east toward the Mid/Upper MS Valley and the upper Great Lakes through most of the forecast period. Some modest west/southwesterly mid/upper flow ahead of the trough, in conjunction with a seasonally moist boundary layer ahead of a southeastward-drifting cold front could support sporadic strong storms across parts of the central U.S. from the Ozarks to the Upper MS Valley mid to late in the week. However, vertical shear is expected to remain poor, and the slow-moving nature of the upper low and weakening surface front with time/eastward extent, will generally be unfavorable for a more robust severe risk. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears low during the Day 4-8/Wed-Sun period. Medium range guidance is in fairly good agreement that the upper shortwave trough over the northern/central Plains Day 4 will develop an upper low as it meanders slowly east toward the Mid/Upper MS Valley and the upper Great Lakes through most of the forecast period. Some modest west/southwesterly mid/upper flow ahead of the trough, in conjunction with a seasonally moist boundary layer ahead of a southeastward-drifting cold front could support sporadic strong storms across parts of the central U.S. from the Ozarks to the Upper MS Valley mid to late in the week. However, vertical shear is expected to remain poor, and the slow-moving nature of the upper low and weakening surface front with time/eastward extent, will generally be unfavorable for a more robust severe risk. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears low during the Day 4-8/Wed-Sun period. Medium range guidance is in fairly good agreement that the upper shortwave trough over the northern/central Plains Day 4 will develop an upper low as it meanders slowly east toward the Mid/Upper MS Valley and the upper Great Lakes through most of the forecast period. Some modest west/southwesterly mid/upper flow ahead of the trough, in conjunction with a seasonally moist boundary layer ahead of a southeastward-drifting cold front could support sporadic strong storms across parts of the central U.S. from the Ozarks to the Upper MS Valley mid to late in the week. However, vertical shear is expected to remain poor, and the slow-moving nature of the upper low and weakening surface front with time/eastward extent, will generally be unfavorable for a more robust severe risk. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the central Plains. ...Central Plains... A positive-tilt upper shortwave trough is forecast to develop eastward from MT/WY into the northern/central Plains on Tuesday. Deep-layer flow is expected to remain modest, though 30-40 kt of southwesterly flow is forecast at 500 mb ahead of the trough across the NE vicinity. At the surface, a weak cold front is expected to develop southeast across the Upper Midwest and central Plains. A seasonally moist airmass, with dewpoints from the upper 50s to mid 60s F will be in place ahead of the front, supporting moderate instability from NE/KS into MN/WI. Stronger forcing for ascent may not occur until after peak heating as the trough ejects slowly east. Additionally, forecast soundings indicate weak capping may persist near the surface boundary. If storms do develop prior to 00z, deep-layer flow parallel to the surface boundary may result in storms becoming undercut by the front. Nevertheless, where favorable/sufficient effective shear magnitudes overlap with stronger instability/steep midlevel lapse rates, a few stronger storms could develop. This may be most likely across parts of NE and vicinity where the cold front intersects a weak low/surface trough, increasing low-level convergence along the boundary. Even if storms are somewhat elevated, isolated hail and gusty winds would be possible. While timing and coverage remain uncertain, the overall parameter space suggests a couple of marginally severe storms will be possible. ..Leitman.. 09/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the central Plains. ...Central Plains... A positive-tilt upper shortwave trough is forecast to develop eastward from MT/WY into the northern/central Plains on Tuesday. Deep-layer flow is expected to remain modest, though 30-40 kt of southwesterly flow is forecast at 500 mb ahead of the trough across the NE vicinity. At the surface, a weak cold front is expected to develop southeast across the Upper Midwest and central Plains. A seasonally moist airmass, with dewpoints from the upper 50s to mid 60s F will be in place ahead of the front, supporting moderate instability from NE/KS into MN/WI. Stronger forcing for ascent may not occur until after peak heating as the trough ejects slowly east. Additionally, forecast soundings indicate weak capping may persist near the surface boundary. If storms do develop prior to 00z, deep-layer flow parallel to the surface boundary may result in storms becoming undercut by the front. Nevertheless, where favorable/sufficient effective shear magnitudes overlap with stronger instability/steep midlevel lapse rates, a few stronger storms could develop. This may be most likely across parts of NE and vicinity where the cold front intersects a weak low/surface trough, increasing low-level convergence along the boundary. Even if storms are somewhat elevated, isolated hail and gusty winds would be possible. While timing and coverage remain uncertain, the overall parameter space suggests a couple of marginally severe storms will be possible. ..Leitman.. 09/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the central Plains. ...Central Plains... A positive-tilt upper shortwave trough is forecast to develop eastward from MT/WY into the northern/central Plains on Tuesday. Deep-layer flow is expected to remain modest, though 30-40 kt of southwesterly flow is forecast at 500 mb ahead of the trough across the NE vicinity. At the surface, a weak cold front is expected to develop southeast across the Upper Midwest and central Plains. A seasonally moist airmass, with dewpoints from the upper 50s to mid 60s F will be in place ahead of the front, supporting moderate instability from NE/KS into MN/WI. Stronger forcing for ascent may not occur until after peak heating as the trough ejects slowly east. Additionally, forecast soundings indicate weak capping may persist near the surface boundary. If storms do develop prior to 00z, deep-layer flow parallel to the surface boundary may result in storms becoming undercut by the front. Nevertheless, where favorable/sufficient effective shear magnitudes overlap with stronger instability/steep midlevel lapse rates, a few stronger storms could develop. This may be most likely across parts of NE and vicinity where the cold front intersects a weak low/surface trough, increasing low-level convergence along the boundary. Even if storms are somewhat elevated, isolated hail and gusty winds would be possible. While timing and coverage remain uncertain, the overall parameter space suggests a couple of marginally severe storms will be possible. ..Leitman.. 09/14/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander over the northern Rockies, promoting mainly cool and mild conditions across the northwest quadrant of the U.S. tomorrow (Monday). Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains, but the associated rainfall may serve to further dampen fuels. As such, no major wildfire-spread conditions are expected across the CONUS on Monday. ..Squitieri.. 09/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander over the northern Rockies, promoting mainly cool and mild conditions across the northwest quadrant of the U.S. tomorrow (Monday). Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains, but the associated rainfall may serve to further dampen fuels. As such, no major wildfire-spread conditions are expected across the CONUS on Monday. ..Squitieri.. 09/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will meander over the northern Rockies, promoting mainly cool and mild conditions across the northwest quadrant of the U.S. tomorrow (Monday). Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains, but the associated rainfall may serve to further dampen fuels. As such, no major wildfire-spread conditions are expected across the CONUS on Monday. ..Squitieri.. 09/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies as another upper trough ejects into the Plains today. Modestly dry and breezy conditions will result across portions of the Great Basin. However, the marginally favorable low-level RH, and fuels that are poorly receptive to wildfire spread, suggest that the chances for significant wildfire ignition and growth are relatively low. The lifting of a buoyant airmass ahead of the western upper trough will support scattered thunderstorm development across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. However, fuels do not appear dry enough for robust lightning ignitions to warrant any dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 09/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies as another upper trough ejects into the Plains today. Modestly dry and breezy conditions will result across portions of the Great Basin. However, the marginally favorable low-level RH, and fuels that are poorly receptive to wildfire spread, suggest that the chances for significant wildfire ignition and growth are relatively low. The lifting of a buoyant airmass ahead of the western upper trough will support scattered thunderstorm development across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. However, fuels do not appear dry enough for robust lightning ignitions to warrant any dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 09/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies as another upper trough ejects into the Plains today. Modestly dry and breezy conditions will result across portions of the Great Basin. However, the marginally favorable low-level RH, and fuels that are poorly receptive to wildfire spread, suggest that the chances for significant wildfire ignition and growth are relatively low. The lifting of a buoyant airmass ahead of the western upper trough will support scattered thunderstorm development across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. However, fuels do not appear dry enough for robust lightning ignitions to warrant any dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 09/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

141
ABPZ20 KNHC 140549
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Sep 13 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Baja California Peninsula:
An area of low pressure located south of the Baja California
Peninsula, which includes the remnants of Mario, is producing a
broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and
a tropical depression could form during the early to middle part of
next week as it tracks slowly westward.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could develop well offshore of the coast of
southern or southwestern Mexico early next week. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development as
the low tracks west-northwestward around 10 to 15 mph.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

South and Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
An area of low pressure well southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual
development of this system as it moves westward around 10 mph.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears generally low on Monday. ...Discussion... A pair of upper shortwave troughs will be located over the northern Rockies and the Upper Midwest on Monday. The upper trough oriented over the eastern Dakotas/MN will lift north into Canada through early evening, while the northern Rockies upper trough meanders slowly eastward, developing an upper cyclone over MT/WY. Another upper cyclone is expected to persist over the Carolinas, while upper riding builds across the Pacific coast states and Midwest. At the surface, seasonal boundary layer moisture will be in place across the southern and central Plains into the MS Valley, resulting in pockets of weak to moderate instability. Any stronger instability is likely to remain displaced from stronger vertical shear, which will be quickly shifting northward from the Upper Midwest into Canada with the departing upper shortwave trough. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will still be possible within a corridor of 60s F dewpoints and moderate instability from the Ozarks vicinity into MN within a low-level warm advection regime. However, severe potential will largely remain low given limited shear and forcing for ascent. The exception could be a strong storm or two in MN/western WI where effective shear magnitudes around 20-25 kt and MLCAPE up to 2000 J/kg will be in place. However, given the upper trough will be departing the region, subsidence may limit storm coverage/longevity across the area. Additional scattered storms are possible across parts of the northern/central High Plains ahead of a weak surface front/trough. Steep midlevel lapse rates will be in place, and strong heating will aid in steepened low-level lapse rates amid a deeply mixed boundary layer. Severe potential should remain limited given weak shear/instability, but inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles could foster locally gusty winds with any showers/thunderstorms. ..Leitman.. 09/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears generally low on Monday. ...Discussion... A pair of upper shortwave troughs will be located over the northern Rockies and the Upper Midwest on Monday. The upper trough oriented over the eastern Dakotas/MN will lift north into Canada through early evening, while the northern Rockies upper trough meanders slowly eastward, developing an upper cyclone over MT/WY. Another upper cyclone is expected to persist over the Carolinas, while upper riding builds across the Pacific coast states and Midwest. At the surface, seasonal boundary layer moisture will be in place across the southern and central Plains into the MS Valley, resulting in pockets of weak to moderate instability. Any stronger instability is likely to remain displaced from stronger vertical shear, which will be quickly shifting northward from the Upper Midwest into Canada with the departing upper shortwave trough. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will still be possible within a corridor of 60s F dewpoints and moderate instability from the Ozarks vicinity into MN within a low-level warm advection regime. However, severe potential will largely remain low given limited shear and forcing for ascent. The exception could be a strong storm or two in MN/western WI where effective shear magnitudes around 20-25 kt and MLCAPE up to 2000 J/kg will be in place. However, given the upper trough will be departing the region, subsidence may limit storm coverage/longevity across the area. Additional scattered storms are possible across parts of the northern/central High Plains ahead of a weak surface front/trough. Steep midlevel lapse rates will be in place, and strong heating will aid in steepened low-level lapse rates amid a deeply mixed boundary layer. Severe potential should remain limited given weak shear/instability, but inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles could foster locally gusty winds with any showers/thunderstorms. ..Leitman.. 09/14/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears generally low on Monday. ...Discussion... A pair of upper shortwave troughs will be located over the northern Rockies and the Upper Midwest on Monday. The upper trough oriented over the eastern Dakotas/MN will lift north into Canada through early evening, while the northern Rockies upper trough meanders slowly eastward, developing an upper cyclone over MT/WY. Another upper cyclone is expected to persist over the Carolinas, while upper riding builds across the Pacific coast states and Midwest. At the surface, seasonal boundary layer moisture will be in place across the southern and central Plains into the MS Valley, resulting in pockets of weak to moderate instability. Any stronger instability is likely to remain displaced from stronger vertical shear, which will be quickly shifting northward from the Upper Midwest into Canada with the departing upper shortwave trough. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will still be possible within a corridor of 60s F dewpoints and moderate instability from the Ozarks vicinity into MN within a low-level warm advection regime. However, severe potential will largely remain low given limited shear and forcing for ascent. The exception could be a strong storm or two in MN/western WI where effective shear magnitudes around 20-25 kt and MLCAPE up to 2000 J/kg will be in place. However, given the upper trough will be departing the region, subsidence may limit storm coverage/longevity across the area. Additional scattered storms are possible across parts of the northern/central High Plains ahead of a weak surface front/trough. Steep midlevel lapse rates will be in place, and strong heating will aid in steepened low-level lapse rates amid a deeply mixed boundary layer. Severe potential should remain limited given weak shear/instability, but inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles could foster locally gusty winds with any showers/thunderstorms. ..Leitman.. 09/14/2025 Read more