Aggregator

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... Modestly dry/breezy conditions remain possible south of an upper trough advancing through the northern Great Basin this afternoon. However, poor overlap of the lower humidity and winds near 15 mph with receptive fuels should keep any concerns very localized. Elsewhere, higher humidity and recent precipitation should keep fire-weather concerns low. No changes were made to the prior outlook. ..Lyons.. 09/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies as another upper trough ejects into the Plains today. Modestly dry and breezy conditions will result across portions of the Great Basin. However, the marginally favorable low-level RH, and fuels that are poorly receptive to wildfire spread, suggest that the chances for significant wildfire ignition and growth are relatively low. The lifting of a buoyant airmass ahead of the western upper trough will support scattered thunderstorm development across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. However, fuels do not appear dry enough for robust lightning ignitions to warrant any dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon to early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes is evident over parts of the Dakotas. ...Dakotas/Western Minnesota... Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central South Dakota into central North Dakota later today. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front, as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low could acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential. Overall storm intensities should diminish later this evening. ...Central Plains including central Nebraska/northern Kansas... Boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper trough should tend to temper overall coverage. A somewhat more focused area of strong/potentially severe storm development would appear to be near the front across southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma and the eastern Panhandles late this afternoon through early evening. ...Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley... In close proximity to the upper ridge, moderate buoyancy and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will exist today in vicinity of a backdoor-type front to the west of decaying early-day elevated convection. Some of the stronger pulse-type storms that develop this afternoon into evening could produce locally damaging winds and perhaps some small hail. ...Northern Rockies/Intermountain Region... Some strong to locally severe storms could occur today from far eastern Oregon into Idaho and southwest Montana. This will be within a relatively favorable environment, with steepening mid-level lapse rates and strengthening cyclonic flow aloft, ahead of the eastward-spreading shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon to early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes is evident over parts of the Dakotas. ...Dakotas/Western Minnesota... Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central South Dakota into central North Dakota later today. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front, as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low could acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential. Overall storm intensities should diminish later this evening. ...Central Plains including central Nebraska/northern Kansas... Boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper trough should tend to temper overall coverage. A somewhat more focused area of strong/potentially severe storm development would appear to be near the front across southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma and the eastern Panhandles late this afternoon through early evening. ...Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley... In close proximity to the upper ridge, moderate buoyancy and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will exist today in vicinity of a backdoor-type front to the west of decaying early-day elevated convection. Some of the stronger pulse-type storms that develop this afternoon into evening could produce locally damaging winds and perhaps some small hail. ...Northern Rockies/Intermountain Region... Some strong to locally severe storms could occur today from far eastern Oregon into Idaho and southwest Montana. This will be within a relatively favorable environment, with steepening mid-level lapse rates and strengthening cyclonic flow aloft, ahead of the eastward-spreading shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon to early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes is evident over parts of the Dakotas. ...Dakotas/Western Minnesota... Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central South Dakota into central North Dakota later today. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front, as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low could acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential. Overall storm intensities should diminish later this evening. ...Central Plains including central Nebraska/northern Kansas... Boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper trough should tend to temper overall coverage. A somewhat more focused area of strong/potentially severe storm development would appear to be near the front across southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma and the eastern Panhandles late this afternoon through early evening. ...Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley... In close proximity to the upper ridge, moderate buoyancy and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will exist today in vicinity of a backdoor-type front to the west of decaying early-day elevated convection. Some of the stronger pulse-type storms that develop this afternoon into evening could produce locally damaging winds and perhaps some small hail. ...Northern Rockies/Intermountain Region... Some strong to locally severe storms could occur today from far eastern Oregon into Idaho and southwest Montana. This will be within a relatively favorable environment, with steepening mid-level lapse rates and strengthening cyclonic flow aloft, ahead of the eastward-spreading shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon to early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes is evident over parts of the Dakotas. ...Dakotas/Western Minnesota... Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central South Dakota into central North Dakota later today. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front, as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low could acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential. Overall storm intensities should diminish later this evening. ...Central Plains including central Nebraska/northern Kansas... Boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper trough should tend to temper overall coverage. A somewhat more focused area of strong/potentially severe storm development would appear to be near the front across southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma and the eastern Panhandles late this afternoon through early evening. ...Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley... In close proximity to the upper ridge, moderate buoyancy and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will exist today in vicinity of a backdoor-type front to the west of decaying early-day elevated convection. Some of the stronger pulse-type storms that develop this afternoon into evening could produce locally damaging winds and perhaps some small hail. ...Northern Rockies/Intermountain Region... Some strong to locally severe storms could occur today from far eastern Oregon into Idaho and southwest Montana. This will be within a relatively favorable environment, with steepening mid-level lapse rates and strengthening cyclonic flow aloft, ahead of the eastward-spreading shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon to early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes is evident over parts of the Dakotas. ...Dakotas/Western Minnesota... Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central South Dakota into central North Dakota later today. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front, as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low could acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential. Overall storm intensities should diminish later this evening. ...Central Plains including central Nebraska/northern Kansas... Boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper trough should tend to temper overall coverage. A somewhat more focused area of strong/potentially severe storm development would appear to be near the front across southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma and the eastern Panhandles late this afternoon through early evening. ...Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley... In close proximity to the upper ridge, moderate buoyancy and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will exist today in vicinity of a backdoor-type front to the west of decaying early-day elevated convection. Some of the stronger pulse-type storms that develop this afternoon into evening could produce locally damaging winds and perhaps some small hail. ...Northern Rockies/Intermountain Region... Some strong to locally severe storms could occur today from far eastern Oregon into Idaho and southwest Montana. This will be within a relatively favorable environment, with steepening mid-level lapse rates and strengthening cyclonic flow aloft, ahead of the eastward-spreading shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon to early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes is evident over parts of the Dakotas. ...Dakotas/Western Minnesota... Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central South Dakota into central North Dakota later today. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front, as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low could acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential. Overall storm intensities should diminish later this evening. ...Central Plains including central Nebraska/northern Kansas... Boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper trough should tend to temper overall coverage. A somewhat more focused area of strong/potentially severe storm development would appear to be near the front across southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma and the eastern Panhandles late this afternoon through early evening. ...Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley... In close proximity to the upper ridge, moderate buoyancy and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will exist today in vicinity of a backdoor-type front to the west of decaying early-day elevated convection. Some of the stronger pulse-type storms that develop this afternoon into evening could produce locally damaging winds and perhaps some small hail. ...Northern Rockies/Intermountain Region... Some strong to locally severe storms could occur today from far eastern Oregon into Idaho and southwest Montana. This will be within a relatively favorable environment, with steepening mid-level lapse rates and strengthening cyclonic flow aloft, ahead of the eastward-spreading shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon to early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes is evident over parts of the Dakotas. ...Dakotas/Western Minnesota... Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central South Dakota into central North Dakota later today. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front, as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low could acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential. Overall storm intensities should diminish later this evening. ...Central Plains including central Nebraska/northern Kansas... Boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper trough should tend to temper overall coverage. A somewhat more focused area of strong/potentially severe storm development would appear to be near the front across southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma and the eastern Panhandles late this afternoon through early evening. ...Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley... In close proximity to the upper ridge, moderate buoyancy and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will exist today in vicinity of a backdoor-type front to the west of decaying early-day elevated convection. Some of the stronger pulse-type storms that develop this afternoon into evening could produce locally damaging winds and perhaps some small hail. ...Northern Rockies/Intermountain Region... Some strong to locally severe storms could occur today from far eastern Oregon into Idaho and southwest Montana. This will be within a relatively favorable environment, with steepening mid-level lapse rates and strengthening cyclonic flow aloft, ahead of the eastward-spreading shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon to early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes is evident over parts of the Dakotas. ...Dakotas/Western Minnesota... Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central South Dakota into central North Dakota later today. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front, as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low could acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential. Overall storm intensities should diminish later this evening. ...Central Plains including central Nebraska/northern Kansas... Boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper trough should tend to temper overall coverage. A somewhat more focused area of strong/potentially severe storm development would appear to be near the front across southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma and the eastern Panhandles late this afternoon through early evening. ...Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley... In close proximity to the upper ridge, moderate buoyancy and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will exist today in vicinity of a backdoor-type front to the west of decaying early-day elevated convection. Some of the stronger pulse-type storms that develop this afternoon into evening could produce locally damaging winds and perhaps some small hail. ...Northern Rockies/Intermountain Region... Some strong to locally severe storms could occur today from far eastern Oregon into Idaho and southwest Montana. This will be within a relatively favorable environment, with steepening mid-level lapse rates and strengthening cyclonic flow aloft, ahead of the eastward-spreading shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon to early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes is evident over parts of the Dakotas. ...Dakotas/Western Minnesota... Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central South Dakota into central North Dakota later today. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front, as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low could acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential. Overall storm intensities should diminish later this evening. ...Central Plains including central Nebraska/northern Kansas... Boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper trough should tend to temper overall coverage. A somewhat more focused area of strong/potentially severe storm development would appear to be near the front across southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma and the eastern Panhandles late this afternoon through early evening. ...Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley... In close proximity to the upper ridge, moderate buoyancy and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will exist today in vicinity of a backdoor-type front to the west of decaying early-day elevated convection. Some of the stronger pulse-type storms that develop this afternoon into evening could produce locally damaging winds and perhaps some small hail. ...Northern Rockies/Intermountain Region... Some strong to locally severe storms could occur today from far eastern Oregon into Idaho and southwest Montana. This will be within a relatively favorable environment, with steepening mid-level lapse rates and strengthening cyclonic flow aloft, ahead of the eastward-spreading shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon to early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes is evident over parts of the Dakotas. ...Dakotas/Western Minnesota... Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central South Dakota into central North Dakota later today. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front, as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low could acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential. Overall storm intensities should diminish later this evening. ...Central Plains including central Nebraska/northern Kansas... Boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper trough should tend to temper overall coverage. A somewhat more focused area of strong/potentially severe storm development would appear to be near the front across southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma and the eastern Panhandles late this afternoon through early evening. ...Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley... In close proximity to the upper ridge, moderate buoyancy and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will exist today in vicinity of a backdoor-type front to the west of decaying early-day elevated convection. Some of the stronger pulse-type storms that develop this afternoon into evening could produce locally damaging winds and perhaps some small hail. ...Northern Rockies/Intermountain Region... Some strong to locally severe storms could occur today from far eastern Oregon into Idaho and southwest Montana. This will be within a relatively favorable environment, with steepening mid-level lapse rates and strengthening cyclonic flow aloft, ahead of the eastward-spreading shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon to early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes is evident over parts of the Dakotas. ...Dakotas/Western Minnesota... Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central South Dakota into central North Dakota later today. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front, as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low could acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential. Overall storm intensities should diminish later this evening. ...Central Plains including central Nebraska/northern Kansas... Boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper trough should tend to temper overall coverage. A somewhat more focused area of strong/potentially severe storm development would appear to be near the front across southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma and the eastern Panhandles late this afternoon through early evening. ...Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley... In close proximity to the upper ridge, moderate buoyancy and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will exist today in vicinity of a backdoor-type front to the west of decaying early-day elevated convection. Some of the stronger pulse-type storms that develop this afternoon into evening could produce locally damaging winds and perhaps some small hail. ...Northern Rockies/Intermountain Region... Some strong to locally severe storms could occur today from far eastern Oregon into Idaho and southwest Montana. This will be within a relatively favorable environment, with steepening mid-level lapse rates and strengthening cyclonic flow aloft, ahead of the eastward-spreading shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon to early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes is evident over parts of the Dakotas. ...Dakotas/Western Minnesota... Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central South Dakota into central North Dakota later today. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front, as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low could acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential. Overall storm intensities should diminish later this evening. ...Central Plains including central Nebraska/northern Kansas... Boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper trough should tend to temper overall coverage. A somewhat more focused area of strong/potentially severe storm development would appear to be near the front across southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma and the eastern Panhandles late this afternoon through early evening. ...Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley... In close proximity to the upper ridge, moderate buoyancy and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will exist today in vicinity of a backdoor-type front to the west of decaying early-day elevated convection. Some of the stronger pulse-type storms that develop this afternoon into evening could produce locally damaging winds and perhaps some small hail. ...Northern Rockies/Intermountain Region... Some strong to locally severe storms could occur today from far eastern Oregon into Idaho and southwest Montana. This will be within a relatively favorable environment, with steepening mid-level lapse rates and strengthening cyclonic flow aloft, ahead of the eastward-spreading shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/14/2025 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 14 Sep 2025 14:45:12 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 14 Sep 2025 15:22:12 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 14 Sep 2025 14:45:12 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 14 Sep 2025 14:45:12 GMT

Issued at 800 AM MST Sun Sep 14 2025 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 141443 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 800 AM MST Sun Sep 14 2025 Overnight and this morning, convection has increased in both coverage and organization with the remnants of Mario, which is now just east-southeast of Socorro Island. Earlier scatterometer data from a Metop-B pass at 0428 UTC indicated that a well-defined center had reformed with a peak wind retrieval of 27 kt. Given the improvement of the system's structure on satellite imagery since that time, it appears that Mario is now on its second life as a tropical cyclone. There was some question as to if this system was fully Mario, or some combination with another disturbance it is interacting with embedded in the monsoon trough to the south. However, there appears to be enough continuity between the prior circulation we were tracking near the coast of Mexico on Friday and the reformation of this new center to indicate this system is the same entity. The initial intensity this advisory is being set to 35 kt, in good agreement with the 12 UTC TAFB Dvorak fix of T2.5/35 kt, a DPRINT estimate of 36 kt at 13 UTC, and a recent pressure observation of 1005 mb at Socorro Island, which appears to be just to the northwest of the tropical storm. Mario is estimated to be moving slowly to the west-northwest at 285/7 kt. This general motion should continue for the next several days as Mario is primarily steered by deep-layer ridging centered over Mexico. Beyond 48 hours, Mario will likely become a shallow tropical cyclone and bend more westward before it dissipates in 3-4 days. The NHC track forecast is in fairly good agreement with the guidance aids, and generally is close to the simple and corrected consensus aids. Mario is in a favorable environment currently, with low shear under 10 kt, warm sea-surface temperatures between 28-30C, and plenty of mid-level moisture. These favorable conditions persist for about 36 hours, and intensification is shown in the forecast, not that far off the most recent HAFS-B forecast. Afterwards, Mario will cross a very sharp temperature gradient while vertical wind shear also increases out of the southwest. Thus, Mario will likely weaken quickly between 48-60 h, losing its organized convection to become a shallow remnant low by 60 h, and dissipating entirely in 3-4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is a bit on the high side of the overall guidance envelope, but is close to the peak intensity of the latest HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA). FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 18.5N 110.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 19.1N 111.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 19.9N 113.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 20.9N 115.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 22.1N 117.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 17/0000Z 23.4N 119.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1200Z 24.0N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 14 2025 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 141439 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 1500 UTC SUN SEP 14 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 14 4(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ISLA SOCORRO 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 32(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 800 AM MST Sun Sep 14 2025 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 141438 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 800 AM MST Sun Sep 14 2025 ...MARIO HAS A SECOND LIFE AS A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 110.2W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ESE OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 110.2 West. Mario is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast over the next day or two, followed by weakening by the middle part of this week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Papin

...MARIO HAS A SECOND LIFE AS A TROPICAL STORM... As of 8:00 AM MST Sun Sep 14 the center of Mario was located near 18.5, -110.2 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 14 2025 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 141437 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 1500 UTC SUN SEP 14 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 110.2W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 110.2W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 110.0W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.1N 111.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 19.9N 113.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 20.9N 115.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 22.1N 117.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 23.4N 119.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 24.0N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 110.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN