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Issued at 200 PM MST Sun Sep 14 2025 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 142032 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 200 PM MST Sun Sep 14 2025 ...MARIO STRENGTHENS AS IT PASSES NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 110.7W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM ENE OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 110.7 West. Mario is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected through Monday, followed by weakening beginning Monday night and Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Hagen

...MARIO STRENGTHENS AS IT PASSES NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND... As of 2:00 PM MST Sun Sep 14 the center of Mario was located near 18.9, -110.7 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

MD 2073 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...AND PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2073 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Areas affected...far northeast Texas Panhandle...far eastern Oklahoma Panhandle...far northwest Oklahoma...and portions of far south-central and southwest Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 141821Z - 142045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop and intensify this afternoon. These storms will pose a risk for large hail and gusty winds. The need for a watch is currently uncertain, but will be monitored this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Convergence is increasing across the area along a slowly moving surface cold front. Large-scale ascent is also expected to increase this afternoon in response to a 70-knot upper-level jet streak embedded within the larger scale flow pattern around a high amplitude mid-upper-level trough. Thunderstorms should continue to develop/intensify this afternoon across portions of northeast Texas Panhandle northeast into portions of southwest/south-central Kansas. Here, afternoon temperatures have warmed into the upper 70Fs and low 80Fs, and should continue to warm with additional diurnal heating. At the same time, surface dewpoints are in the low-to-mid 60Fs, with only little vertical mixing of low-level moisture expected given the increasing cloud cover. Mid-level lapse rates are on the order of 7 C/km, which when combined with the temperature/dewpoint temperature combination at the surface, yield most unstable CAPE values ranging from 1000-2500 J/kg depending on the exact combination. Currently, effective-layer shear is rather poor across the area, but may increase slightly as the aforementioned jet streak approaches the area. Despite this increase, effective-layer shear will struggle to sustain supercell structures with any storm that develops, instead favoring multi-cell clusters exhibiting transient supercell-like characteristics. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible with the strongest storms. One negative for any sustained potential will be the neutral-to-rising midlevel heights as the trough continues to lift northward. As such, storm-scale processes will likely drive any sustained spatial severe potential. Thus, the need for a watch is currently uncertain and will be highly dependent upon the details of character of any storm interactions and the number of storms that may ultimately develop. This will be monitored through the afternoon. ..Marsh/Guyer.. 09/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 35800078 36500082 37300005 37449949 37409895 36879884 36019937 35470007 35800078 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon into early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes exists over parts of the Dakotas. ...20Z Update... The only change with this update was a minor westward expansion of the Slight Risk in the Dakotas, driven by 5-percent tornado and wind probabilities (within Tornado Watch 610). Here, a concentrated corridor of enhanced low-level vorticity accompanying a northward-moving MCV will continue to support embedded low-level mesocyclones with a risk of a couple tornadoes. In the near-term, the tornado risk should generally be maximized in the path of the MCV. With time, additional development will be possible along a warm front draped across parts of south-central and southeastern ND -- aided by a strengthening low-level jet and diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints). Any sustained storms in the vicinity of the warm front may become superceullular and pose a risk of a couple tornadoes, given the favorable/strengthening low-level shear and destabilizing boundary layer. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track and no changes were needed. For details on the near-term severe risks in the southern and central Plains, reference MCDs 2073 and 2074. ..Weinman.. 09/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/ ...Dakotas/Western Minnesota... Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central South Dakota into central North Dakota later today. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front, as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low could acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential. Overall storm intensities should diminish later this evening. ...Central Plains including central Nebraska/northern Kansas... Boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper trough should tend to temper overall coverage. A somewhat more focused area of strong/potentially severe storm development would appear to be near the front across southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma and the eastern Panhandles late this afternoon through early evening. ...Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley... In close proximity to the upper ridge, moderate buoyancy and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will exist today in vicinity of a backdoor-type front to the west of decaying early-day elevated convection. Some of the stronger pulse-type storms that develop this afternoon into evening could produce locally damaging winds and perhaps some small hail. ...Northern Rockies/Intermountain Region... Some strong to locally severe storms could occur today from far eastern Oregon into Idaho and southwest Montana. This will be within a relatively favorable environment, with steepening mid-level lapse rates and strengthening cyclonic flow aloft, ahead of the eastward-spreading shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon into early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes exists over parts of the Dakotas. ...20Z Update... The only change with this update was a minor westward expansion of the Slight Risk in the Dakotas, driven by 5-percent tornado and wind probabilities (within Tornado Watch 610). Here, a concentrated corridor of enhanced low-level vorticity accompanying a northward-moving MCV will continue to support embedded low-level mesocyclones with a risk of a couple tornadoes. In the near-term, the tornado risk should generally be maximized in the path of the MCV. With time, additional development will be possible along a warm front draped across parts of south-central and southeastern ND -- aided by a strengthening low-level jet and diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints). Any sustained storms in the vicinity of the warm front may become superceullular and pose a risk of a couple tornadoes, given the favorable/strengthening low-level shear and destabilizing boundary layer. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track and no changes were needed. For details on the near-term severe risks in the southern and central Plains, reference MCDs 2073 and 2074. ..Weinman.. 09/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/ ...Dakotas/Western Minnesota... Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central South Dakota into central North Dakota later today. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front, as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low could acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential. Overall storm intensities should diminish later this evening. ...Central Plains including central Nebraska/northern Kansas... Boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper trough should tend to temper overall coverage. A somewhat more focused area of strong/potentially severe storm development would appear to be near the front across southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma and the eastern Panhandles late this afternoon through early evening. ...Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley... In close proximity to the upper ridge, moderate buoyancy and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will exist today in vicinity of a backdoor-type front to the west of decaying early-day elevated convection. Some of the stronger pulse-type storms that develop this afternoon into evening could produce locally damaging winds and perhaps some small hail. ...Northern Rockies/Intermountain Region... Some strong to locally severe storms could occur today from far eastern Oregon into Idaho and southwest Montana. This will be within a relatively favorable environment, with steepening mid-level lapse rates and strengthening cyclonic flow aloft, ahead of the eastward-spreading shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon into early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes exists over parts of the Dakotas. ...20Z Update... The only change with this update was a minor westward expansion of the Slight Risk in the Dakotas, driven by 5-percent tornado and wind probabilities (within Tornado Watch 610). Here, a concentrated corridor of enhanced low-level vorticity accompanying a northward-moving MCV will continue to support embedded low-level mesocyclones with a risk of a couple tornadoes. In the near-term, the tornado risk should generally be maximized in the path of the MCV. With time, additional development will be possible along a warm front draped across parts of south-central and southeastern ND -- aided by a strengthening low-level jet and diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints). Any sustained storms in the vicinity of the warm front may become superceullular and pose a risk of a couple tornadoes, given the favorable/strengthening low-level shear and destabilizing boundary layer. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track and no changes were needed. For details on the near-term severe risks in the southern and central Plains, reference MCDs 2073 and 2074. ..Weinman.. 09/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/ ...Dakotas/Western Minnesota... Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central South Dakota into central North Dakota later today. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front, as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low could acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential. Overall storm intensities should diminish later this evening. ...Central Plains including central Nebraska/northern Kansas... Boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper trough should tend to temper overall coverage. A somewhat more focused area of strong/potentially severe storm development would appear to be near the front across southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma and the eastern Panhandles late this afternoon through early evening. ...Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley... In close proximity to the upper ridge, moderate buoyancy and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will exist today in vicinity of a backdoor-type front to the west of decaying early-day elevated convection. Some of the stronger pulse-type storms that develop this afternoon into evening could produce locally damaging winds and perhaps some small hail. ...Northern Rockies/Intermountain Region... Some strong to locally severe storms could occur today from far eastern Oregon into Idaho and southwest Montana. This will be within a relatively favorable environment, with steepening mid-level lapse rates and strengthening cyclonic flow aloft, ahead of the eastward-spreading shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon into early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes exists over parts of the Dakotas. ...20Z Update... The only change with this update was a minor westward expansion of the Slight Risk in the Dakotas, driven by 5-percent tornado and wind probabilities (within Tornado Watch 610). Here, a concentrated corridor of enhanced low-level vorticity accompanying a northward-moving MCV will continue to support embedded low-level mesocyclones with a risk of a couple tornadoes. In the near-term, the tornado risk should generally be maximized in the path of the MCV. With time, additional development will be possible along a warm front draped across parts of south-central and southeastern ND -- aided by a strengthening low-level jet and diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints). Any sustained storms in the vicinity of the warm front may become superceullular and pose a risk of a couple tornadoes, given the favorable/strengthening low-level shear and destabilizing boundary layer. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track and no changes were needed. For details on the near-term severe risks in the southern and central Plains, reference MCDs 2073 and 2074. ..Weinman.. 09/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/ ...Dakotas/Western Minnesota... Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central South Dakota into central North Dakota later today. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front, as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low could acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential. Overall storm intensities should diminish later this evening. ...Central Plains including central Nebraska/northern Kansas... Boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper trough should tend to temper overall coverage. A somewhat more focused area of strong/potentially severe storm development would appear to be near the front across southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma and the eastern Panhandles late this afternoon through early evening. ...Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley... In close proximity to the upper ridge, moderate buoyancy and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will exist today in vicinity of a backdoor-type front to the west of decaying early-day elevated convection. Some of the stronger pulse-type storms that develop this afternoon into evening could produce locally damaging winds and perhaps some small hail. ...Northern Rockies/Intermountain Region... Some strong to locally severe storms could occur today from far eastern Oregon into Idaho and southwest Montana. This will be within a relatively favorable environment, with steepening mid-level lapse rates and strengthening cyclonic flow aloft, ahead of the eastward-spreading shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon into early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes exists over parts of the Dakotas. ...20Z Update... The only change with this update was a minor westward expansion of the Slight Risk in the Dakotas, driven by 5-percent tornado and wind probabilities (within Tornado Watch 610). Here, a concentrated corridor of enhanced low-level vorticity accompanying a northward-moving MCV will continue to support embedded low-level mesocyclones with a risk of a couple tornadoes. In the near-term, the tornado risk should generally be maximized in the path of the MCV. With time, additional development will be possible along a warm front draped across parts of south-central and southeastern ND -- aided by a strengthening low-level jet and diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints). Any sustained storms in the vicinity of the warm front may become superceullular and pose a risk of a couple tornadoes, given the favorable/strengthening low-level shear and destabilizing boundary layer. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track and no changes were needed. For details on the near-term severe risks in the southern and central Plains, reference MCDs 2073 and 2074. ..Weinman.. 09/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/ ...Dakotas/Western Minnesota... Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central South Dakota into central North Dakota later today. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front, as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low could acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential. Overall storm intensities should diminish later this evening. ...Central Plains including central Nebraska/northern Kansas... Boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper trough should tend to temper overall coverage. A somewhat more focused area of strong/potentially severe storm development would appear to be near the front across southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma and the eastern Panhandles late this afternoon through early evening. ...Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley... In close proximity to the upper ridge, moderate buoyancy and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will exist today in vicinity of a backdoor-type front to the west of decaying early-day elevated convection. Some of the stronger pulse-type storms that develop this afternoon into evening could produce locally damaging winds and perhaps some small hail. ...Northern Rockies/Intermountain Region... Some strong to locally severe storms could occur today from far eastern Oregon into Idaho and southwest Montana. This will be within a relatively favorable environment, with steepening mid-level lapse rates and strengthening cyclonic flow aloft, ahead of the eastward-spreading shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon into early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes exists over parts of the Dakotas. ...20Z Update... The only change with this update was a minor westward expansion of the Slight Risk in the Dakotas, driven by 5-percent tornado and wind probabilities (within Tornado Watch 610). Here, a concentrated corridor of enhanced low-level vorticity accompanying a northward-moving MCV will continue to support embedded low-level mesocyclones with a risk of a couple tornadoes. In the near-term, the tornado risk should generally be maximized in the path of the MCV. With time, additional development will be possible along a warm front draped across parts of south-central and southeastern ND -- aided by a strengthening low-level jet and diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints). Any sustained storms in the vicinity of the warm front may become superceullular and pose a risk of a couple tornadoes, given the favorable/strengthening low-level shear and destabilizing boundary layer. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track and no changes were needed. For details on the near-term severe risks in the southern and central Plains, reference MCDs 2073 and 2074. ..Weinman.. 09/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/ ...Dakotas/Western Minnesota... Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central South Dakota into central North Dakota later today. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front, as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low could acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential. Overall storm intensities should diminish later this evening. ...Central Plains including central Nebraska/northern Kansas... Boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper trough should tend to temper overall coverage. A somewhat more focused area of strong/potentially severe storm development would appear to be near the front across southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma and the eastern Panhandles late this afternoon through early evening. ...Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley... In close proximity to the upper ridge, moderate buoyancy and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will exist today in vicinity of a backdoor-type front to the west of decaying early-day elevated convection. Some of the stronger pulse-type storms that develop this afternoon into evening could produce locally damaging winds and perhaps some small hail. ...Northern Rockies/Intermountain Region... Some strong to locally severe storms could occur today from far eastern Oregon into Idaho and southwest Montana. This will be within a relatively favorable environment, with steepening mid-level lapse rates and strengthening cyclonic flow aloft, ahead of the eastward-spreading shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon into early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes exists over parts of the Dakotas. ...20Z Update... The only change with this update was a minor westward expansion of the Slight Risk in the Dakotas, driven by 5-percent tornado and wind probabilities (within Tornado Watch 610). Here, a concentrated corridor of enhanced low-level vorticity accompanying a northward-moving MCV will continue to support embedded low-level mesocyclones with a risk of a couple tornadoes. In the near-term, the tornado risk should generally be maximized in the path of the MCV. With time, additional development will be possible along a warm front draped across parts of south-central and southeastern ND -- aided by a strengthening low-level jet and diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints). Any sustained storms in the vicinity of the warm front may become superceullular and pose a risk of a couple tornadoes, given the favorable/strengthening low-level shear and destabilizing boundary layer. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track and no changes were needed. For details on the near-term severe risks in the southern and central Plains, reference MCDs 2073 and 2074. ..Weinman.. 09/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/ ...Dakotas/Western Minnesota... Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central South Dakota into central North Dakota later today. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front, as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low could acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential. Overall storm intensities should diminish later this evening. ...Central Plains including central Nebraska/northern Kansas... Boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper trough should tend to temper overall coverage. A somewhat more focused area of strong/potentially severe storm development would appear to be near the front across southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma and the eastern Panhandles late this afternoon through early evening. ...Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley... In close proximity to the upper ridge, moderate buoyancy and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will exist today in vicinity of a backdoor-type front to the west of decaying early-day elevated convection. Some of the stronger pulse-type storms that develop this afternoon into evening could produce locally damaging winds and perhaps some small hail. ...Northern Rockies/Intermountain Region... Some strong to locally severe storms could occur today from far eastern Oregon into Idaho and southwest Montana. This will be within a relatively favorable environment, with steepening mid-level lapse rates and strengthening cyclonic flow aloft, ahead of the eastward-spreading shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon into early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes exists over parts of the Dakotas. ...20Z Update... The only change with this update was a minor westward expansion of the Slight Risk in the Dakotas, driven by 5-percent tornado and wind probabilities (within Tornado Watch 610). Here, a concentrated corridor of enhanced low-level vorticity accompanying a northward-moving MCV will continue to support embedded low-level mesocyclones with a risk of a couple tornadoes. In the near-term, the tornado risk should generally be maximized in the path of the MCV. With time, additional development will be possible along a warm front draped across parts of south-central and southeastern ND -- aided by a strengthening low-level jet and diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints). Any sustained storms in the vicinity of the warm front may become superceullular and pose a risk of a couple tornadoes, given the favorable/strengthening low-level shear and destabilizing boundary layer. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track and no changes were needed. For details on the near-term severe risks in the southern and central Plains, reference MCDs 2073 and 2074. ..Weinman.. 09/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/ ...Dakotas/Western Minnesota... Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central South Dakota into central North Dakota later today. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front, as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low could acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential. Overall storm intensities should diminish later this evening. ...Central Plains including central Nebraska/northern Kansas... Boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper trough should tend to temper overall coverage. A somewhat more focused area of strong/potentially severe storm development would appear to be near the front across southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma and the eastern Panhandles late this afternoon through early evening. ...Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley... In close proximity to the upper ridge, moderate buoyancy and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will exist today in vicinity of a backdoor-type front to the west of decaying early-day elevated convection. Some of the stronger pulse-type storms that develop this afternoon into evening could produce locally damaging winds and perhaps some small hail. ...Northern Rockies/Intermountain Region... Some strong to locally severe storms could occur today from far eastern Oregon into Idaho and southwest Montana. This will be within a relatively favorable environment, with steepening mid-level lapse rates and strengthening cyclonic flow aloft, ahead of the eastward-spreading shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon into early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes exists over parts of the Dakotas. ...20Z Update... The only change with this update was a minor westward expansion of the Slight Risk in the Dakotas, driven by 5-percent tornado and wind probabilities (within Tornado Watch 610). Here, a concentrated corridor of enhanced low-level vorticity accompanying a northward-moving MCV will continue to support embedded low-level mesocyclones with a risk of a couple tornadoes. In the near-term, the tornado risk should generally be maximized in the path of the MCV. With time, additional development will be possible along a warm front draped across parts of south-central and southeastern ND -- aided by a strengthening low-level jet and diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints). Any sustained storms in the vicinity of the warm front may become superceullular and pose a risk of a couple tornadoes, given the favorable/strengthening low-level shear and destabilizing boundary layer. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track and no changes were needed. For details on the near-term severe risks in the southern and central Plains, reference MCDs 2073 and 2074. ..Weinman.. 09/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/ ...Dakotas/Western Minnesota... Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central South Dakota into central North Dakota later today. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front, as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low could acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential. Overall storm intensities should diminish later this evening. ...Central Plains including central Nebraska/northern Kansas... Boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper trough should tend to temper overall coverage. A somewhat more focused area of strong/potentially severe storm development would appear to be near the front across southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma and the eastern Panhandles late this afternoon through early evening. ...Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley... In close proximity to the upper ridge, moderate buoyancy and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will exist today in vicinity of a backdoor-type front to the west of decaying early-day elevated convection. Some of the stronger pulse-type storms that develop this afternoon into evening could produce locally damaging winds and perhaps some small hail. ...Northern Rockies/Intermountain Region... Some strong to locally severe storms could occur today from far eastern Oregon into Idaho and southwest Montana. This will be within a relatively favorable environment, with steepening mid-level lapse rates and strengthening cyclonic flow aloft, ahead of the eastward-spreading shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon into early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes exists over parts of the Dakotas. ...20Z Update... The only change with this update was a minor westward expansion of the Slight Risk in the Dakotas, driven by 5-percent tornado and wind probabilities (within Tornado Watch 610). Here, a concentrated corridor of enhanced low-level vorticity accompanying a northward-moving MCV will continue to support embedded low-level mesocyclones with a risk of a couple tornadoes. In the near-term, the tornado risk should generally be maximized in the path of the MCV. With time, additional development will be possible along a warm front draped across parts of south-central and southeastern ND -- aided by a strengthening low-level jet and diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints). Any sustained storms in the vicinity of the warm front may become superceullular and pose a risk of a couple tornadoes, given the favorable/strengthening low-level shear and destabilizing boundary layer. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track and no changes were needed. For details on the near-term severe risks in the southern and central Plains, reference MCDs 2073 and 2074. ..Weinman.. 09/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/ ...Dakotas/Western Minnesota... Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central South Dakota into central North Dakota later today. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front, as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low could acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential. Overall storm intensities should diminish later this evening. ...Central Plains including central Nebraska/northern Kansas... Boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper trough should tend to temper overall coverage. A somewhat more focused area of strong/potentially severe storm development would appear to be near the front across southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma and the eastern Panhandles late this afternoon through early evening. ...Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley... In close proximity to the upper ridge, moderate buoyancy and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will exist today in vicinity of a backdoor-type front to the west of decaying early-day elevated convection. Some of the stronger pulse-type storms that develop this afternoon into evening could produce locally damaging winds and perhaps some small hail. ...Northern Rockies/Intermountain Region... Some strong to locally severe storms could occur today from far eastern Oregon into Idaho and southwest Montana. This will be within a relatively favorable environment, with steepening mid-level lapse rates and strengthening cyclonic flow aloft, ahead of the eastward-spreading shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon into early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes exists over parts of the Dakotas. ...20Z Update... The only change with this update was a minor westward expansion of the Slight Risk in the Dakotas, driven by 5-percent tornado and wind probabilities (within Tornado Watch 610). Here, a concentrated corridor of enhanced low-level vorticity accompanying a northward-moving MCV will continue to support embedded low-level mesocyclones with a risk of a couple tornadoes. In the near-term, the tornado risk should generally be maximized in the path of the MCV. With time, additional development will be possible along a warm front draped across parts of south-central and southeastern ND -- aided by a strengthening low-level jet and diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints). Any sustained storms in the vicinity of the warm front may become superceullular and pose a risk of a couple tornadoes, given the favorable/strengthening low-level shear and destabilizing boundary layer. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track and no changes were needed. For details on the near-term severe risks in the southern and central Plains, reference MCDs 2073 and 2074. ..Weinman.. 09/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/ ...Dakotas/Western Minnesota... Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central South Dakota into central North Dakota later today. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front, as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low could acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential. Overall storm intensities should diminish later this evening. ...Central Plains including central Nebraska/northern Kansas... Boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper trough should tend to temper overall coverage. A somewhat more focused area of strong/potentially severe storm development would appear to be near the front across southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma and the eastern Panhandles late this afternoon through early evening. ...Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley... In close proximity to the upper ridge, moderate buoyancy and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will exist today in vicinity of a backdoor-type front to the west of decaying early-day elevated convection. Some of the stronger pulse-type storms that develop this afternoon into evening could produce locally damaging winds and perhaps some small hail. ...Northern Rockies/Intermountain Region... Some strong to locally severe storms could occur today from far eastern Oregon into Idaho and southwest Montana. This will be within a relatively favorable environment, with steepening mid-level lapse rates and strengthening cyclonic flow aloft, ahead of the eastward-spreading shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon into early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes exists over parts of the Dakotas. ...20Z Update... The only change with this update was a minor westward expansion of the Slight Risk in the Dakotas, driven by 5-percent tornado and wind probabilities (within Tornado Watch 610). Here, a concentrated corridor of enhanced low-level vorticity accompanying a northward-moving MCV will continue to support embedded low-level mesocyclones with a risk of a couple tornadoes. In the near-term, the tornado risk should generally be maximized in the path of the MCV. With time, additional development will be possible along a warm front draped across parts of south-central and southeastern ND -- aided by a strengthening low-level jet and diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints). Any sustained storms in the vicinity of the warm front may become superceullular and pose a risk of a couple tornadoes, given the favorable/strengthening low-level shear and destabilizing boundary layer. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track and no changes were needed. For details on the near-term severe risks in the southern and central Plains, reference MCDs 2073 and 2074. ..Weinman.. 09/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/ ...Dakotas/Western Minnesota... Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central South Dakota into central North Dakota later today. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front, as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low could acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential. Overall storm intensities should diminish later this evening. ...Central Plains including central Nebraska/northern Kansas... Boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper trough should tend to temper overall coverage. A somewhat more focused area of strong/potentially severe storm development would appear to be near the front across southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma and the eastern Panhandles late this afternoon through early evening. ...Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley... In close proximity to the upper ridge, moderate buoyancy and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will exist today in vicinity of a backdoor-type front to the west of decaying early-day elevated convection. Some of the stronger pulse-type storms that develop this afternoon into evening could produce locally damaging winds and perhaps some small hail. ...Northern Rockies/Intermountain Region... Some strong to locally severe storms could occur today from far eastern Oregon into Idaho and southwest Montana. This will be within a relatively favorable environment, with steepening mid-level lapse rates and strengthening cyclonic flow aloft, ahead of the eastward-spreading shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon into early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes exists over parts of the Dakotas. ...20Z Update... The only change with this update was a minor westward expansion of the Slight Risk in the Dakotas, driven by 5-percent tornado and wind probabilities (within Tornado Watch 610). Here, a concentrated corridor of enhanced low-level vorticity accompanying a northward-moving MCV will continue to support embedded low-level mesocyclones with a risk of a couple tornadoes. In the near-term, the tornado risk should generally be maximized in the path of the MCV. With time, additional development will be possible along a warm front draped across parts of south-central and southeastern ND -- aided by a strengthening low-level jet and diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints). Any sustained storms in the vicinity of the warm front may become superceullular and pose a risk of a couple tornadoes, given the favorable/strengthening low-level shear and destabilizing boundary layer. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track and no changes were needed. For details on the near-term severe risks in the southern and central Plains, reference MCDs 2073 and 2074. ..Weinman.. 09/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/ ...Dakotas/Western Minnesota... Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central South Dakota into central North Dakota later today. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front, as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low could acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential. Overall storm intensities should diminish later this evening. ...Central Plains including central Nebraska/northern Kansas... Boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper trough should tend to temper overall coverage. A somewhat more focused area of strong/potentially severe storm development would appear to be near the front across southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma and the eastern Panhandles late this afternoon through early evening. ...Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley... In close proximity to the upper ridge, moderate buoyancy and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will exist today in vicinity of a backdoor-type front to the west of decaying early-day elevated convection. Some of the stronger pulse-type storms that develop this afternoon into evening could produce locally damaging winds and perhaps some small hail. ...Northern Rockies/Intermountain Region... Some strong to locally severe storms could occur today from far eastern Oregon into Idaho and southwest Montana. This will be within a relatively favorable environment, with steepening mid-level lapse rates and strengthening cyclonic flow aloft, ahead of the eastward-spreading shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon into early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes exists over parts of the Dakotas. ...20Z Update... The only change with this update was a minor westward expansion of the Slight Risk in the Dakotas, driven by 5-percent tornado and wind probabilities (within Tornado Watch 610). Here, a concentrated corridor of enhanced low-level vorticity accompanying a northward-moving MCV will continue to support embedded low-level mesocyclones with a risk of a couple tornadoes. In the near-term, the tornado risk should generally be maximized in the path of the MCV. With time, additional development will be possible along a warm front draped across parts of south-central and southeastern ND -- aided by a strengthening low-level jet and diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints). Any sustained storms in the vicinity of the warm front may become superceullular and pose a risk of a couple tornadoes, given the favorable/strengthening low-level shear and destabilizing boundary layer. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track and no changes were needed. For details on the near-term severe risks in the southern and central Plains, reference MCDs 2073 and 2074. ..Weinman.. 09/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/ ...Dakotas/Western Minnesota... Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central South Dakota into central North Dakota later today. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front, as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low could acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential. Overall storm intensities should diminish later this evening. ...Central Plains including central Nebraska/northern Kansas... Boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper trough should tend to temper overall coverage. A somewhat more focused area of strong/potentially severe storm development would appear to be near the front across southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma and the eastern Panhandles late this afternoon through early evening. ...Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley... In close proximity to the upper ridge, moderate buoyancy and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will exist today in vicinity of a backdoor-type front to the west of decaying early-day elevated convection. Some of the stronger pulse-type storms that develop this afternoon into evening could produce locally damaging winds and perhaps some small hail. ...Northern Rockies/Intermountain Region... Some strong to locally severe storms could occur today from far eastern Oregon into Idaho and southwest Montana. This will be within a relatively favorable environment, with steepening mid-level lapse rates and strengthening cyclonic flow aloft, ahead of the eastward-spreading shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across a broad portion of the Great Plains this afternoon into early evening. A more concentrated threat for a couple tornadoes exists over parts of the Dakotas. ...20Z Update... The only change with this update was a minor westward expansion of the Slight Risk in the Dakotas, driven by 5-percent tornado and wind probabilities (within Tornado Watch 610). Here, a concentrated corridor of enhanced low-level vorticity accompanying a northward-moving MCV will continue to support embedded low-level mesocyclones with a risk of a couple tornadoes. In the near-term, the tornado risk should generally be maximized in the path of the MCV. With time, additional development will be possible along a warm front draped across parts of south-central and southeastern ND -- aided by a strengthening low-level jet and diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints). Any sustained storms in the vicinity of the warm front may become superceullular and pose a risk of a couple tornadoes, given the favorable/strengthening low-level shear and destabilizing boundary layer. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track and no changes were needed. For details on the near-term severe risks in the southern and central Plains, reference MCDs 2073 and 2074. ..Weinman.. 09/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025/ ...Dakotas/Western Minnesota... Within a meridional mid-level flow regime, a surface low is forecast to lift north across the central Dakotas this afternoon/evening. A low-level jet will strengthen across the eastern Dakotas towards evening, while moist easterly surface flow will exist north of the low. These processes will result in a relatively confined corridor of enhanced SRH lifting north from north-central South Dakota into central North Dakota later today. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across the Dakotas along a cold front, as ascent with the consolidating and increasingly negatively-tilted upper trough intensifies. Although the primary risks will be isolated strong/severe gusts and hail with multicell or transient supercell structures, storms near the aforementioned surface low could acquire sufficient low-level rotation resulting in some tornado potential. Overall storm intensities should diminish later this evening. ...Central Plains including central Nebraska/northern Kansas... Boundary-layer heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer will contribute to moderate-strong buoyancy east of a cold front this afternoon. Although stronger wind fields/greater shear will be displaced to the east, sufficient overlap is expected, with the potential for both multicell and supercell characteristics resulting in severe hail/wind potential. A confined plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates (in excess of 7 deg C/km) southeast of the consolidating trough will promote a more concentrated risk for severe hail, centered near the Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity. ...Southern High Plains... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a moderate-strongly buoyant air mass amid modest westerly cloud-bearing layer shear. Both multicell and brief supercell structures are possible with a risk for isolated severe wind and hail, however warmer mid-level temperatures south of the upper trough should tend to temper overall coverage. A somewhat more focused area of strong/potentially severe storm development would appear to be near the front across southwest Kansas/northwest Oklahoma and the eastern Panhandles late this afternoon through early evening. ...Mid-South/Middle Mississippi Valley... In close proximity to the upper ridge, moderate buoyancy and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will exist today in vicinity of a backdoor-type front to the west of decaying early-day elevated convection. Some of the stronger pulse-type storms that develop this afternoon into evening could produce locally damaging winds and perhaps some small hail. ...Northern Rockies/Intermountain Region... Some strong to locally severe storms could occur today from far eastern Oregon into Idaho and southwest Montana. This will be within a relatively favorable environment, with steepening mid-level lapse rates and strengthening cyclonic flow aloft, ahead of the eastward-spreading shortwave trough over the Pacific Northwest. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the central Plains. ...Central Plains... A positively-tilted trough will move eastward through the northern Great Basin and eventually reach the central High Plains by Wednesday morning. A weak surface trough and cold front are forecast to be positioned within the northern Plains stretching southwestward into the central High Plains. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front will be in the upper 50s to low/mid 60s F. Surface heating should allow moderate buoyancy to develop from Kansas into Minnesota/Wisconsin during the afternoon. With the trough generally expected to arrive later in the period. Forcing for ascent will not be well-timed with diurnal heating. That being said, forecast soundings do indicate minimal inhibition during the afternoon. Should storms develop, there would be some potential for damaging winds to occur. The ECMWF as well as available CAMs are more supportive of this scenario than the NAM/GFS. Shear will not be overly strong and it will be parallel to the cold front. However it should be sufficient for a few marginally severe storms. The probabilities were shifted slightly northwestward to account for recent trends in guidance. ...North Carolina/Virginia Tidewaters... A coastal low will continue to drift northward on Tuesday. Low-level shear will be enhanced near and just to the north of the circulation center. Whether sufficient buoyancy can develop inland remains a question given precipitation and cloud cover. The likelihood of a stronger storm moving onshore remains too low for probabilities. ..Wendt.. 09/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the central Plains. ...Central Plains... A positively-tilted trough will move eastward through the northern Great Basin and eventually reach the central High Plains by Wednesday morning. A weak surface trough and cold front are forecast to be positioned within the northern Plains stretching southwestward into the central High Plains. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front will be in the upper 50s to low/mid 60s F. Surface heating should allow moderate buoyancy to develop from Kansas into Minnesota/Wisconsin during the afternoon. With the trough generally expected to arrive later in the period. Forcing for ascent will not be well-timed with diurnal heating. That being said, forecast soundings do indicate minimal inhibition during the afternoon. Should storms develop, there would be some potential for damaging winds to occur. The ECMWF as well as available CAMs are more supportive of this scenario than the NAM/GFS. Shear will not be overly strong and it will be parallel to the cold front. However it should be sufficient for a few marginally severe storms. The probabilities were shifted slightly northwestward to account for recent trends in guidance. ...North Carolina/Virginia Tidewaters... A coastal low will continue to drift northward on Tuesday. Low-level shear will be enhanced near and just to the north of the circulation center. Whether sufficient buoyancy can develop inland remains a question given precipitation and cloud cover. The likelihood of a stronger storm moving onshore remains too low for probabilities. ..Wendt.. 09/14/2025 Read more