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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0441 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z The semi-progressive flow pattern over the CONUS will begin to slow early next week as an upper low persists over the central US. Either side of the low, weak ridging will temporarily amplify, keeping the pattern stagnant for much of the week. Zonal flow should begin to increase by early next weekend, though models differ on the evolution of mid-level flow beyond this week. This will keep fire-weather concerns localized through the extended forecast period. ...Northwest and northern Great Basin... A brief period of easterly flow is likely early D3/Tuesday possibly extending into D4 Wednesday over the western Columbia Basin and Cascade Range. High pressure behind the departing upper low will support a modest increase in offshore pressure gradients through midweek. While not overly strong, occasional gusts to 25+ mph may briefly overlap with lower humidity supporting some local fire-weather concerns. Later in the week as the western upper ridge builds, temperatures will warm allowing for a slight increase in low-level winds with a thermal trough in the lee of the Cascades and the northern Great Basin. While winds will not be overly strong, the warm temperatures and drying of fuels could support some localized fire-weather concerns through the end of the week. ...Dry Thunderstorms... As the western upper ridge builds, a subtropical disturbance will approach southern CA D4/Wednesday. Accompanying this feature, mid-level moisture and increasingly strong southwesterly/southerly flow will overspread much of the West through the end of the work week. This could support isolated to scattered thunderstorms with lightning potential into the weekend. However, models vary on the degree of moisture and strength of the upper ridge, casting significant uncertainty on the dry thunderstorm potential midweek and beyond. ..Lyons.. 09/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0441 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z The semi-progressive flow pattern over the CONUS will begin to slow early next week as an upper low persists over the central US. Either side of the low, weak ridging will temporarily amplify, keeping the pattern stagnant for much of the week. Zonal flow should begin to increase by early next weekend, though models differ on the evolution of mid-level flow beyond this week. This will keep fire-weather concerns localized through the extended forecast period. ...Northwest and northern Great Basin... A brief period of easterly flow is likely early D3/Tuesday possibly extending into D4 Wednesday over the western Columbia Basin and Cascade Range. High pressure behind the departing upper low will support a modest increase in offshore pressure gradients through midweek. While not overly strong, occasional gusts to 25+ mph may briefly overlap with lower humidity supporting some local fire-weather concerns. Later in the week as the western upper ridge builds, temperatures will warm allowing for a slight increase in low-level winds with a thermal trough in the lee of the Cascades and the northern Great Basin. While winds will not be overly strong, the warm temperatures and drying of fuels could support some localized fire-weather concerns through the end of the week. ...Dry Thunderstorms... As the western upper ridge builds, a subtropical disturbance will approach southern CA D4/Wednesday. Accompanying this feature, mid-level moisture and increasingly strong southwesterly/southerly flow will overspread much of the West through the end of the work week. This could support isolated to scattered thunderstorms with lightning potential into the weekend. However, models vary on the degree of moisture and strength of the upper ridge, casting significant uncertainty on the dry thunderstorm potential midweek and beyond. ..Lyons.. 09/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0441 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z The semi-progressive flow pattern over the CONUS will begin to slow early next week as an upper low persists over the central US. Either side of the low, weak ridging will temporarily amplify, keeping the pattern stagnant for much of the week. Zonal flow should begin to increase by early next weekend, though models differ on the evolution of mid-level flow beyond this week. This will keep fire-weather concerns localized through the extended forecast period. ...Northwest and northern Great Basin... A brief period of easterly flow is likely early D3/Tuesday possibly extending into D4 Wednesday over the western Columbia Basin and Cascade Range. High pressure behind the departing upper low will support a modest increase in offshore pressure gradients through midweek. While not overly strong, occasional gusts to 25+ mph may briefly overlap with lower humidity supporting some local fire-weather concerns. Later in the week as the western upper ridge builds, temperatures will warm allowing for a slight increase in low-level winds with a thermal trough in the lee of the Cascades and the northern Great Basin. While winds will not be overly strong, the warm temperatures and drying of fuels could support some localized fire-weather concerns through the end of the week. ...Dry Thunderstorms... As the western upper ridge builds, a subtropical disturbance will approach southern CA D4/Wednesday. Accompanying this feature, mid-level moisture and increasingly strong southwesterly/southerly flow will overspread much of the West through the end of the work week. This could support isolated to scattered thunderstorms with lightning potential into the weekend. However, models vary on the degree of moisture and strength of the upper ridge, casting significant uncertainty on the dry thunderstorm potential midweek and beyond. ..Lyons.. 09/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0441 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z The semi-progressive flow pattern over the CONUS will begin to slow early next week as an upper low persists over the central US. Either side of the low, weak ridging will temporarily amplify, keeping the pattern stagnant for much of the week. Zonal flow should begin to increase by early next weekend, though models differ on the evolution of mid-level flow beyond this week. This will keep fire-weather concerns localized through the extended forecast period. ...Northwest and northern Great Basin... A brief period of easterly flow is likely early D3/Tuesday possibly extending into D4 Wednesday over the western Columbia Basin and Cascade Range. High pressure behind the departing upper low will support a modest increase in offshore pressure gradients through midweek. While not overly strong, occasional gusts to 25+ mph may briefly overlap with lower humidity supporting some local fire-weather concerns. Later in the week as the western upper ridge builds, temperatures will warm allowing for a slight increase in low-level winds with a thermal trough in the lee of the Cascades and the northern Great Basin. While winds will not be overly strong, the warm temperatures and drying of fuels could support some localized fire-weather concerns through the end of the week. ...Dry Thunderstorms... As the western upper ridge builds, a subtropical disturbance will approach southern CA D4/Wednesday. Accompanying this feature, mid-level moisture and increasingly strong southwesterly/southerly flow will overspread much of the West through the end of the work week. This could support isolated to scattered thunderstorms with lightning potential into the weekend. However, models vary on the degree of moisture and strength of the upper ridge, casting significant uncertainty on the dry thunderstorm potential midweek and beyond. ..Lyons.. 09/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0441 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z The semi-progressive flow pattern over the CONUS will begin to slow early next week as an upper low persists over the central US. Either side of the low, weak ridging will temporarily amplify, keeping the pattern stagnant for much of the week. Zonal flow should begin to increase by early next weekend, though models differ on the evolution of mid-level flow beyond this week. This will keep fire-weather concerns localized through the extended forecast period. ...Northwest and northern Great Basin... A brief period of easterly flow is likely early D3/Tuesday possibly extending into D4 Wednesday over the western Columbia Basin and Cascade Range. High pressure behind the departing upper low will support a modest increase in offshore pressure gradients through midweek. While not overly strong, occasional gusts to 25+ mph may briefly overlap with lower humidity supporting some local fire-weather concerns. Later in the week as the western upper ridge builds, temperatures will warm allowing for a slight increase in low-level winds with a thermal trough in the lee of the Cascades and the northern Great Basin. While winds will not be overly strong, the warm temperatures and drying of fuels could support some localized fire-weather concerns through the end of the week. ...Dry Thunderstorms... As the western upper ridge builds, a subtropical disturbance will approach southern CA D4/Wednesday. Accompanying this feature, mid-level moisture and increasingly strong southwesterly/southerly flow will overspread much of the West through the end of the work week. This could support isolated to scattered thunderstorms with lightning potential into the weekend. However, models vary on the degree of moisture and strength of the upper ridge, casting significant uncertainty on the dry thunderstorm potential midweek and beyond. ..Lyons.. 09/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0441 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z The semi-progressive flow pattern over the CONUS will begin to slow early next week as an upper low persists over the central US. Either side of the low, weak ridging will temporarily amplify, keeping the pattern stagnant for much of the week. Zonal flow should begin to increase by early next weekend, though models differ on the evolution of mid-level flow beyond this week. This will keep fire-weather concerns localized through the extended forecast period. ...Northwest and northern Great Basin... A brief period of easterly flow is likely early D3/Tuesday possibly extending into D4 Wednesday over the western Columbia Basin and Cascade Range. High pressure behind the departing upper low will support a modest increase in offshore pressure gradients through midweek. While not overly strong, occasional gusts to 25+ mph may briefly overlap with lower humidity supporting some local fire-weather concerns. Later in the week as the western upper ridge builds, temperatures will warm allowing for a slight increase in low-level winds with a thermal trough in the lee of the Cascades and the northern Great Basin. While winds will not be overly strong, the warm temperatures and drying of fuels could support some localized fire-weather concerns through the end of the week. ...Dry Thunderstorms... As the western upper ridge builds, a subtropical disturbance will approach southern CA D4/Wednesday. Accompanying this feature, mid-level moisture and increasingly strong southwesterly/southerly flow will overspread much of the West through the end of the work week. This could support isolated to scattered thunderstorms with lightning potential into the weekend. However, models vary on the degree of moisture and strength of the upper ridge, casting significant uncertainty on the dry thunderstorm potential midweek and beyond. ..Lyons.. 09/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0441 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z The semi-progressive flow pattern over the CONUS will begin to slow early next week as an upper low persists over the central US. Either side of the low, weak ridging will temporarily amplify, keeping the pattern stagnant for much of the week. Zonal flow should begin to increase by early next weekend, though models differ on the evolution of mid-level flow beyond this week. This will keep fire-weather concerns localized through the extended forecast period. ...Northwest and northern Great Basin... A brief period of easterly flow is likely early D3/Tuesday possibly extending into D4 Wednesday over the western Columbia Basin and Cascade Range. High pressure behind the departing upper low will support a modest increase in offshore pressure gradients through midweek. While not overly strong, occasional gusts to 25+ mph may briefly overlap with lower humidity supporting some local fire-weather concerns. Later in the week as the western upper ridge builds, temperatures will warm allowing for a slight increase in low-level winds with a thermal trough in the lee of the Cascades and the northern Great Basin. While winds will not be overly strong, the warm temperatures and drying of fuels could support some localized fire-weather concerns through the end of the week. ...Dry Thunderstorms... As the western upper ridge builds, a subtropical disturbance will approach southern CA D4/Wednesday. Accompanying this feature, mid-level moisture and increasingly strong southwesterly/southerly flow will overspread much of the West through the end of the work week. This could support isolated to scattered thunderstorms with lightning potential into the weekend. However, models vary on the degree of moisture and strength of the upper ridge, casting significant uncertainty on the dry thunderstorm potential midweek and beyond. ..Lyons.. 09/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0441 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z The semi-progressive flow pattern over the CONUS will begin to slow early next week as an upper low persists over the central US. Either side of the low, weak ridging will temporarily amplify, keeping the pattern stagnant for much of the week. Zonal flow should begin to increase by early next weekend, though models differ on the evolution of mid-level flow beyond this week. This will keep fire-weather concerns localized through the extended forecast period. ...Northwest and northern Great Basin... A brief period of easterly flow is likely early D3/Tuesday possibly extending into D4 Wednesday over the western Columbia Basin and Cascade Range. High pressure behind the departing upper low will support a modest increase in offshore pressure gradients through midweek. While not overly strong, occasional gusts to 25+ mph may briefly overlap with lower humidity supporting some local fire-weather concerns. Later in the week as the western upper ridge builds, temperatures will warm allowing for a slight increase in low-level winds with a thermal trough in the lee of the Cascades and the northern Great Basin. While winds will not be overly strong, the warm temperatures and drying of fuels could support some localized fire-weather concerns through the end of the week. ...Dry Thunderstorms... As the western upper ridge builds, a subtropical disturbance will approach southern CA D4/Wednesday. Accompanying this feature, mid-level moisture and increasingly strong southwesterly/southerly flow will overspread much of the West through the end of the work week. This could support isolated to scattered thunderstorms with lightning potential into the weekend. However, models vary on the degree of moisture and strength of the upper ridge, casting significant uncertainty on the dry thunderstorm potential midweek and beyond. ..Lyons.. 09/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0441 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z The semi-progressive flow pattern over the CONUS will begin to slow early next week as an upper low persists over the central US. Either side of the low, weak ridging will temporarily amplify, keeping the pattern stagnant for much of the week. Zonal flow should begin to increase by early next weekend, though models differ on the evolution of mid-level flow beyond this week. This will keep fire-weather concerns localized through the extended forecast period. ...Northwest and northern Great Basin... A brief period of easterly flow is likely early D3/Tuesday possibly extending into D4 Wednesday over the western Columbia Basin and Cascade Range. High pressure behind the departing upper low will support a modest increase in offshore pressure gradients through midweek. While not overly strong, occasional gusts to 25+ mph may briefly overlap with lower humidity supporting some local fire-weather concerns. Later in the week as the western upper ridge builds, temperatures will warm allowing for a slight increase in low-level winds with a thermal trough in the lee of the Cascades and the northern Great Basin. While winds will not be overly strong, the warm temperatures and drying of fuels could support some localized fire-weather concerns through the end of the week. ...Dry Thunderstorms... As the western upper ridge builds, a subtropical disturbance will approach southern CA D4/Wednesday. Accompanying this feature, mid-level moisture and increasingly strong southwesterly/southerly flow will overspread much of the West through the end of the work week. This could support isolated to scattered thunderstorms with lightning potential into the weekend. However, models vary on the degree of moisture and strength of the upper ridge, casting significant uncertainty on the dry thunderstorm potential midweek and beyond. ..Lyons.. 09/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0441 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z The semi-progressive flow pattern over the CONUS will begin to slow early next week as an upper low persists over the central US. Either side of the low, weak ridging will temporarily amplify, keeping the pattern stagnant for much of the week. Zonal flow should begin to increase by early next weekend, though models differ on the evolution of mid-level flow beyond this week. This will keep fire-weather concerns localized through the extended forecast period. ...Northwest and northern Great Basin... A brief period of easterly flow is likely early D3/Tuesday possibly extending into D4 Wednesday over the western Columbia Basin and Cascade Range. High pressure behind the departing upper low will support a modest increase in offshore pressure gradients through midweek. While not overly strong, occasional gusts to 25+ mph may briefly overlap with lower humidity supporting some local fire-weather concerns. Later in the week as the western upper ridge builds, temperatures will warm allowing for a slight increase in low-level winds with a thermal trough in the lee of the Cascades and the northern Great Basin. While winds will not be overly strong, the warm temperatures and drying of fuels could support some localized fire-weather concerns through the end of the week. ...Dry Thunderstorms... As the western upper ridge builds, a subtropical disturbance will approach southern CA D4/Wednesday. Accompanying this feature, mid-level moisture and increasingly strong southwesterly/southerly flow will overspread much of the West through the end of the work week. This could support isolated to scattered thunderstorms with lightning potential into the weekend. However, models vary on the degree of moisture and strength of the upper ridge, casting significant uncertainty on the dry thunderstorm potential midweek and beyond. ..Lyons.. 09/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 14 Sep 2025 20:34:03 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 14 Sep 2025 21:21:39 GMT

WW 0610 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 610 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW MBG TO 40 S BIS TO 20 E DIK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2078 ..THORNTON..09/14/25 ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 610 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC003-005-009-015-019-021-027-029-031-039-043-045-047-049-051- 055-057-059-063-065-069-071-075-079-083-093-095-101-103- 142140- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNES BENSON BOTTINEAU BURLEIGH CAVALIER DICKEY EDDY EMMONS FOSTER GRIGGS KIDDER LAMOURE LOGAN MCHENRY MCINTOSH MCLEAN MERCER MORTON NELSON OLIVER PIERCE RAMSEY RENVILLE ROLETTE SHERIDAN STUTSMAN TOWNER WARD WELLS SDC013-021-045-089-129-142140- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0610 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 610 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW MBG TO 40 S BIS TO 20 E DIK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2078 ..THORNTON..09/14/25 ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 610 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC003-005-009-015-019-021-027-029-031-039-043-045-047-049-051- 055-057-059-063-065-069-071-075-079-083-093-095-101-103- 142140- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNES BENSON BOTTINEAU BURLEIGH CAVALIER DICKEY EDDY EMMONS FOSTER GRIGGS KIDDER LAMOURE LOGAN MCHENRY MCINTOSH MCLEAN MERCER MORTON NELSON OLIVER PIERCE RAMSEY RENVILLE ROLETTE SHERIDAN STUTSMAN TOWNER WARD WELLS SDC013-021-045-089-129-142140- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

MD 2074 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN...CENTRAL...AND EASTERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 2074 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Areas affected...portions of northern Kansas and southern...central...and eastern Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 141900Z - 142100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop/intensify this afternoon. The strongest storms will pose a risk for hail, some which may be large. A watch may be necessary later this afternoon. DISCUSSION...The airmass continues to recover in the wake of earlier convection with temperatures warming into the 70Fs in the presence of surface dewpoints in the low-to-mid 60Fs. With midlevel lapse rates on the order of 8 C/km atop this low-level airmass, most unstable CAPE should increase up to 2500 J/kg by late afternoon. Thunderstorms will develop/intensify this afternoon as a combination of mixing out from below and large scale ascent associated with the left exit region of an upper-level jet to the north-northwest of the area work together to overcome/weaken the 850-700 millibar warm layer noted in forecast soundings. Long hodographs and steep midlevel lapse rates will favor hail with any sustained, intense thunderstorm. Despite the long hodographs, effective-layer shear will be marginal for supporting mid-level rotation that could act to augment updraft intensity and the resulting hail potential. The better effective-layer shear will be across the middle-to-eastern portions of the MD area, and portions of this area will be monitored for the potential of severe hail occurring. If it becomes apparent that thunderstorms are/will be able to tap into this environment, and that the coverage will be more than one or two storms, a severe thunderstorm watch may become necessary. ..Marsh/Guyer.. 09/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 39110172 40480175 41900071 42039926 42269644 41269586 40199631 39449729 38749962 38750083 39110172 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0611 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0611 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0611 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0611 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 14 Sep 2025 20:34:03 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 14 Sep 2025 20:34:03 GMT

Issued at 200 PM MST Sun Sep 14 2025 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 142033 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 200 PM MST Sun Sep 14 2025 A large, cold convective burst formed over the center of Mario around 13Z this morning and subsequently expanded, and the burst has persisted since that time. A 1657 UTC ASCAT-B pass showed several 34-38 kt vectors within 30 miles of Mario's center. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates are 3.0/45 kt from TAFB and 2.0/30 kt from SAB, while recent UW-CIMSS objective intensity estimates are in the 40-45 kt range. Winds at Socorro Island, located less than 30 n mi west-southwest of the center, are up to 20 kt gusting to 29 kt, with a 1006 mb pressure. The initial intensity is increased to 40 kt for this advisory. The aforementioned ASCAT pass and surface observations from Socorro Island have been helpful at estimating the initial position of Mario, which is slightly to the east of the previous NHC forecast. The current motion of the cyclone is estimated to be slowly toward the west-northwest at 300/6 kt. This general motion should continue for the next few days as Mario is primarily steered by deep-layer ridging centered over Mexico. The GFS and Google DeepMind models are on the right, or north side of the guidance envelope, whereas the ECMWF and HCCA lie on the left or southern side of the guidance. The latest NHC forecast is adjusted slightly to the right, or east, of the previous official forecast, fairly close to a blend of the latest HCCA and TVCE models. Mario will continue to be in a favorable environment for strengthening for another 24-30 hours, with low shear under 10 kt, warm sea-surface temperatures, and plenty of mid-level moisture. By hour 30, the sea-surface temperatures will be below 27C and then below 26C by hour 36. Around the same time, southwesterly shear will begin increasing while the mid-level moisture and instability plummet. These conditions favor the commencement of weakening on Monday night. All model guidance, including the latest hi-res hurricane models, do not show more than about 10 kt of additional strengthening. In fact, the latest intensity forecast is at the high end of the model guidance envelope through 24 h. Given the favorable environment for the next 24 h, a higher peak intensity in the 55-60 kt range should not be ruled out. By 36 h, the NHC forecast is similar to the previous one, which is closer to the middle of the guidance envelope. The cyclone should become a remnant low in 48-60 h and dissipate just beyond 72 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 18.9N 110.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 19.6N 111.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 20.4N 113.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 21.5N 115.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 22.8N 117.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 17/0600Z 24.0N 119.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1800Z 24.9N 121.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 14 2025 023 FOPZ13 KNHC 142032 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 2100 UTC SUN SEP 14 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) 20N 115W 34 X 14(14) 17(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) 20N 115W 50 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 14 2025 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 142032 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 2100 UTC SUN SEP 14 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 110.7W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 110.7W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 110.3W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 19.6N 111.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 20.4N 113.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 21.5N 115.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 22.8N 117.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 24.0N 119.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 24.9N 121.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 110.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN