Aggregator

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the central Plains. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted trough will move through the northern Great Basin and eventually reach the High Plains by early Wednesday morning. A weak surface trough/cold front will be positioned from northern Minnesota southwestward into the central High Plains. Another weak surface trough will extend farther south into the southern High Plains. Off the Mid-Atlantic Coast, a weak surface low will slowly shift north and weaken with time. ...Central Plains... With the mid-level ascent from the approaching trough not arriving until late afternoon/evening, it is not clear how much storm development will occur prior to 00Z. Recent CAM guidance does suggest that convergence along the surface trough/front may be sufficient for late afternoon storms. The strongest shear will likely remain behind the boundary. Upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints will promote around 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Storms that do develop will not likely remain discrete for very long given boundary parallel shear. Isolated severe gusts and large hail will be the main hazards. Storms should generally weaken during the evening and beyond given a weak low-level jet response. ...Southern Plains... While greater surface heating is expected to occur in this region, limited low-level moisture will keep overall buoyancy modest. Shear will also be rather modest during the afternoon. A cluster or two of storms could develop in the High Plains and move eastward, possibly producing locally gusty winds. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... There is a weak signal within guidance for evening/overnight storm development along the cold front. Convergence along the boundary will only marginally increase after dark. Forcing for ascent will also be weak and late-arriving. Steep lapse rates could promote a stronger storm or two with an attendant hail risk. However, with stronger shear behind the boundary and highly uncertain initiation, probabilities do not appear warranted. ...North Carolina/Virginia Tidewater... A weak offshore low will mostly remain offshore. The low will be gradually weakening, particularly by the afternoon. Low-level flow enhancement around the low may promote some increased risk for gusty winds with convection, but limited onshore progression of greater buoyancy along with rain/clouds will likely prohibit any greater threat for damaging gusts. ..Wendt.. 09/15/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151709
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Sep 15 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Mario, located a few hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico:
An elongated trough of low pressure located several hundred miles
off the coast of southern Mexico is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by the middle to latter part of this week as it
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central east
Pacific.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... Easterly flow is expected to develop over portions of the western Columbia Basin and Cascade ranges late tonight through D2/Tuesday. With gusts of 20-25 mph possible at ridge-top level and through gaps, some dry and breezy conditions are possible. However, the marginal RH values and recent precipitation should keep fuels tempered, with any fire-weather concerns expected to be brief and localized. Otherwise, see the prior outlook for more information. ..Lyons.. 09/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will become situated over the northern Rockies today, promoting mainly quiescent fire weather conditions across the western CONUS. Ahead of the upper trough, thunderstorms may develop over the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. Some of these storms may be fast moving and high based, accompanied by erratic wind gusts. Nonetheless, fuels are at best marginally receptive to wildfire spread, with no fire weather highlights introduced this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... Easterly flow is expected to develop over portions of the western Columbia Basin and Cascade ranges late tonight through D2/Tuesday. With gusts of 20-25 mph possible at ridge-top level and through gaps, some dry and breezy conditions are possible. However, the marginal RH values and recent precipitation should keep fuels tempered, with any fire-weather concerns expected to be brief and localized. Otherwise, see the prior outlook for more information. ..Lyons.. 09/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will become situated over the northern Rockies today, promoting mainly quiescent fire weather conditions across the western CONUS. Ahead of the upper trough, thunderstorms may develop over the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. Some of these storms may be fast moving and high based, accompanied by erratic wind gusts. Nonetheless, fuels are at best marginally receptive to wildfire spread, with no fire weather highlights introduced this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... Easterly flow is expected to develop over portions of the western Columbia Basin and Cascade ranges late tonight through D2/Tuesday. With gusts of 20-25 mph possible at ridge-top level and through gaps, some dry and breezy conditions are possible. However, the marginal RH values and recent precipitation should keep fuels tempered, with any fire-weather concerns expected to be brief and localized. Otherwise, see the prior outlook for more information. ..Lyons.. 09/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will become situated over the northern Rockies today, promoting mainly quiescent fire weather conditions across the western CONUS. Ahead of the upper trough, thunderstorms may develop over the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. Some of these storms may be fast moving and high based, accompanied by erratic wind gusts. Nonetheless, fuels are at best marginally receptive to wildfire spread, with no fire weather highlights introduced this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... Easterly flow is expected to develop over portions of the western Columbia Basin and Cascade ranges late tonight through D2/Tuesday. With gusts of 20-25 mph possible at ridge-top level and through gaps, some dry and breezy conditions are possible. However, the marginal RH values and recent precipitation should keep fuels tempered, with any fire-weather concerns expected to be brief and localized. Otherwise, see the prior outlook for more information. ..Lyons.. 09/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will become situated over the northern Rockies today, promoting mainly quiescent fire weather conditions across the western CONUS. Ahead of the upper trough, thunderstorms may develop over the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. Some of these storms may be fast moving and high based, accompanied by erratic wind gusts. Nonetheless, fuels are at best marginally receptive to wildfire spread, with no fire weather highlights introduced this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... Easterly flow is expected to develop over portions of the western Columbia Basin and Cascade ranges late tonight through D2/Tuesday. With gusts of 20-25 mph possible at ridge-top level and through gaps, some dry and breezy conditions are possible. However, the marginal RH values and recent precipitation should keep fuels tempered, with any fire-weather concerns expected to be brief and localized. Otherwise, see the prior outlook for more information. ..Lyons.. 09/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will become situated over the northern Rockies today, promoting mainly quiescent fire weather conditions across the western CONUS. Ahead of the upper trough, thunderstorms may develop over the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. Some of these storms may be fast moving and high based, accompanied by erratic wind gusts. Nonetheless, fuels are at best marginally receptive to wildfire spread, with no fire weather highlights introduced this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... Easterly flow is expected to develop over portions of the western Columbia Basin and Cascade ranges late tonight through D2/Tuesday. With gusts of 20-25 mph possible at ridge-top level and through gaps, some dry and breezy conditions are possible. However, the marginal RH values and recent precipitation should keep fuels tempered, with any fire-weather concerns expected to be brief and localized. Otherwise, see the prior outlook for more information. ..Lyons.. 09/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will become situated over the northern Rockies today, promoting mainly quiescent fire weather conditions across the western CONUS. Ahead of the upper trough, thunderstorms may develop over the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. Some of these storms may be fast moving and high based, accompanied by erratic wind gusts. Nonetheless, fuels are at best marginally receptive to wildfire spread, with no fire weather highlights introduced this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... Easterly flow is expected to develop over portions of the western Columbia Basin and Cascade ranges late tonight through D2/Tuesday. With gusts of 20-25 mph possible at ridge-top level and through gaps, some dry and breezy conditions are possible. However, the marginal RH values and recent precipitation should keep fuels tempered, with any fire-weather concerns expected to be brief and localized. Otherwise, see the prior outlook for more information. ..Lyons.. 09/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will become situated over the northern Rockies today, promoting mainly quiescent fire weather conditions across the western CONUS. Ahead of the upper trough, thunderstorms may develop over the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. Some of these storms may be fast moving and high based, accompanied by erratic wind gusts. Nonetheless, fuels are at best marginally receptive to wildfire spread, with no fire weather highlights introduced this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN MINNESOTA...OZARKS/MID-SOUTH...AND COASTAL NC/VA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts are possible across Wyoming into western South Dakota this afternoon to early evening, as well as portions of the Ozarks/Mid-South. Isolated severe hail and damaging winds are possible across far northern Minnesota in the early to mid-afternoon. A brief tornado is possible in the northeast North Carolina vicinity in the early morning Tuesday. ...Wyoming to Black Hills vicinity... A shortwave trough over western Idaho will move east across Wyoming/western South Dakota during the day, as several embedded vorticity maxima contribute regions of enhanced ascent. Steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-9 deg C/km, combined with diurnal heating, will result in MLCAPE of a few hundred J/kg across much of the area. Despite weak buoyancy, the favorably-timed ascent will contribute to thunderstorm development/intensification this afternoon as storms approach northeast Wyoming/western South Dakota. Some hail could occur, and a deep and well-mixed boundary layer will lead to high-based convection capable of isolated strong/damaging gusts through early evening, with intensities diminishing thereafter as nocturnal cooling commences. ...Northeast North Carolina/southeast Virginia... A surface low southeast of Cape Hatteras is forecast to move towards the North Carolina coast through 12z Tuesday, with a belt of stronger low-level flow developing north/northwest of the low. Variability remains regarding the forecast location of the low and strength of low-level winds, however a conditional risk for a tornado would exist late tonight through early Tuesday morning with stronger convective elements, should sufficient low-level hodograph curvature develop as high theta-e air is advected west. ...Far northern Minnesota... Thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon within a northwest-southeast oriented arc from southeast Manitoba across northeast Ontario as a shortwave trough becomes increasingly negatively tilted while lifting northeast. Although development south of the international border is uncertain, some global guidance (and a convection-allowing model or two) suggest isolated development is possible. Moderate buoyancy and effective shear of 35-40 kt over far northern Minnesota suggest a conditional risk for severe wind/hail would exist if/where storm development occurs. ...Missouri/Mid-South.. Near and west/southwest of a residual front, a few strong/locally damaging wind gusts will be possible again this afternoon with pulse-type storms within a weakly-sheared but strongly unstable (MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg) thermodynamic environment. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN MINNESOTA...OZARKS/MID-SOUTH...AND COASTAL NC/VA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts are possible across Wyoming into western South Dakota this afternoon to early evening, as well as portions of the Ozarks/Mid-South. Isolated severe hail and damaging winds are possible across far northern Minnesota in the early to mid-afternoon. A brief tornado is possible in the northeast North Carolina vicinity in the early morning Tuesday. ...Wyoming to Black Hills vicinity... A shortwave trough over western Idaho will move east across Wyoming/western South Dakota during the day, as several embedded vorticity maxima contribute regions of enhanced ascent. Steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-9 deg C/km, combined with diurnal heating, will result in MLCAPE of a few hundred J/kg across much of the area. Despite weak buoyancy, the favorably-timed ascent will contribute to thunderstorm development/intensification this afternoon as storms approach northeast Wyoming/western South Dakota. Some hail could occur, and a deep and well-mixed boundary layer will lead to high-based convection capable of isolated strong/damaging gusts through early evening, with intensities diminishing thereafter as nocturnal cooling commences. ...Northeast North Carolina/southeast Virginia... A surface low southeast of Cape Hatteras is forecast to move towards the North Carolina coast through 12z Tuesday, with a belt of stronger low-level flow developing north/northwest of the low. Variability remains regarding the forecast location of the low and strength of low-level winds, however a conditional risk for a tornado would exist late tonight through early Tuesday morning with stronger convective elements, should sufficient low-level hodograph curvature develop as high theta-e air is advected west. ...Far northern Minnesota... Thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon within a northwest-southeast oriented arc from southeast Manitoba across northeast Ontario as a shortwave trough becomes increasingly negatively tilted while lifting northeast. Although development south of the international border is uncertain, some global guidance (and a convection-allowing model or two) suggest isolated development is possible. Moderate buoyancy and effective shear of 35-40 kt over far northern Minnesota suggest a conditional risk for severe wind/hail would exist if/where storm development occurs. ...Missouri/Mid-South.. Near and west/southwest of a residual front, a few strong/locally damaging wind gusts will be possible again this afternoon with pulse-type storms within a weakly-sheared but strongly unstable (MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg) thermodynamic environment. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN MINNESOTA...OZARKS/MID-SOUTH...AND COASTAL NC/VA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts are possible across Wyoming into western South Dakota this afternoon to early evening, as well as portions of the Ozarks/Mid-South. Isolated severe hail and damaging winds are possible across far northern Minnesota in the early to mid-afternoon. A brief tornado is possible in the northeast North Carolina vicinity in the early morning Tuesday. ...Wyoming to Black Hills vicinity... A shortwave trough over western Idaho will move east across Wyoming/western South Dakota during the day, as several embedded vorticity maxima contribute regions of enhanced ascent. Steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-9 deg C/km, combined with diurnal heating, will result in MLCAPE of a few hundred J/kg across much of the area. Despite weak buoyancy, the favorably-timed ascent will contribute to thunderstorm development/intensification this afternoon as storms approach northeast Wyoming/western South Dakota. Some hail could occur, and a deep and well-mixed boundary layer will lead to high-based convection capable of isolated strong/damaging gusts through early evening, with intensities diminishing thereafter as nocturnal cooling commences. ...Northeast North Carolina/southeast Virginia... A surface low southeast of Cape Hatteras is forecast to move towards the North Carolina coast through 12z Tuesday, with a belt of stronger low-level flow developing north/northwest of the low. Variability remains regarding the forecast location of the low and strength of low-level winds, however a conditional risk for a tornado would exist late tonight through early Tuesday morning with stronger convective elements, should sufficient low-level hodograph curvature develop as high theta-e air is advected west. ...Far northern Minnesota... Thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon within a northwest-southeast oriented arc from southeast Manitoba across northeast Ontario as a shortwave trough becomes increasingly negatively tilted while lifting northeast. Although development south of the international border is uncertain, some global guidance (and a convection-allowing model or two) suggest isolated development is possible. Moderate buoyancy and effective shear of 35-40 kt over far northern Minnesota suggest a conditional risk for severe wind/hail would exist if/where storm development occurs. ...Missouri/Mid-South.. Near and west/southwest of a residual front, a few strong/locally damaging wind gusts will be possible again this afternoon with pulse-type storms within a weakly-sheared but strongly unstable (MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg) thermodynamic environment. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN MINNESOTA...OZARKS/MID-SOUTH...AND COASTAL NC/VA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts are possible across Wyoming into western South Dakota this afternoon to early evening, as well as portions of the Ozarks/Mid-South. Isolated severe hail and damaging winds are possible across far northern Minnesota in the early to mid-afternoon. A brief tornado is possible in the northeast North Carolina vicinity in the early morning Tuesday. ...Wyoming to Black Hills vicinity... A shortwave trough over western Idaho will move east across Wyoming/western South Dakota during the day, as several embedded vorticity maxima contribute regions of enhanced ascent. Steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-9 deg C/km, combined with diurnal heating, will result in MLCAPE of a few hundred J/kg across much of the area. Despite weak buoyancy, the favorably-timed ascent will contribute to thunderstorm development/intensification this afternoon as storms approach northeast Wyoming/western South Dakota. Some hail could occur, and a deep and well-mixed boundary layer will lead to high-based convection capable of isolated strong/damaging gusts through early evening, with intensities diminishing thereafter as nocturnal cooling commences. ...Northeast North Carolina/southeast Virginia... A surface low southeast of Cape Hatteras is forecast to move towards the North Carolina coast through 12z Tuesday, with a belt of stronger low-level flow developing north/northwest of the low. Variability remains regarding the forecast location of the low and strength of low-level winds, however a conditional risk for a tornado would exist late tonight through early Tuesday morning with stronger convective elements, should sufficient low-level hodograph curvature develop as high theta-e air is advected west. ...Far northern Minnesota... Thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon within a northwest-southeast oriented arc from southeast Manitoba across northeast Ontario as a shortwave trough becomes increasingly negatively tilted while lifting northeast. Although development south of the international border is uncertain, some global guidance (and a convection-allowing model or two) suggest isolated development is possible. Moderate buoyancy and effective shear of 35-40 kt over far northern Minnesota suggest a conditional risk for severe wind/hail would exist if/where storm development occurs. ...Missouri/Mid-South.. Near and west/southwest of a residual front, a few strong/locally damaging wind gusts will be possible again this afternoon with pulse-type storms within a weakly-sheared but strongly unstable (MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg) thermodynamic environment. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN MINNESOTA...OZARKS/MID-SOUTH...AND COASTAL NC/VA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts are possible across Wyoming into western South Dakota this afternoon to early evening, as well as portions of the Ozarks/Mid-South. Isolated severe hail and damaging winds are possible across far northern Minnesota in the early to mid-afternoon. A brief tornado is possible in the northeast North Carolina vicinity in the early morning Tuesday. ...Wyoming to Black Hills vicinity... A shortwave trough over western Idaho will move east across Wyoming/western South Dakota during the day, as several embedded vorticity maxima contribute regions of enhanced ascent. Steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-9 deg C/km, combined with diurnal heating, will result in MLCAPE of a few hundred J/kg across much of the area. Despite weak buoyancy, the favorably-timed ascent will contribute to thunderstorm development/intensification this afternoon as storms approach northeast Wyoming/western South Dakota. Some hail could occur, and a deep and well-mixed boundary layer will lead to high-based convection capable of isolated strong/damaging gusts through early evening, with intensities diminishing thereafter as nocturnal cooling commences. ...Northeast North Carolina/southeast Virginia... A surface low southeast of Cape Hatteras is forecast to move towards the North Carolina coast through 12z Tuesday, with a belt of stronger low-level flow developing north/northwest of the low. Variability remains regarding the forecast location of the low and strength of low-level winds, however a conditional risk for a tornado would exist late tonight through early Tuesday morning with stronger convective elements, should sufficient low-level hodograph curvature develop as high theta-e air is advected west. ...Far northern Minnesota... Thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon within a northwest-southeast oriented arc from southeast Manitoba across northeast Ontario as a shortwave trough becomes increasingly negatively tilted while lifting northeast. Although development south of the international border is uncertain, some global guidance (and a convection-allowing model or two) suggest isolated development is possible. Moderate buoyancy and effective shear of 35-40 kt over far northern Minnesota suggest a conditional risk for severe wind/hail would exist if/where storm development occurs. ...Missouri/Mid-South.. Near and west/southwest of a residual front, a few strong/locally damaging wind gusts will be possible again this afternoon with pulse-type storms within a weakly-sheared but strongly unstable (MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg) thermodynamic environment. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN MINNESOTA...OZARKS/MID-SOUTH...AND COASTAL NC/VA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts are possible across Wyoming into western South Dakota this afternoon to early evening, as well as portions of the Ozarks/Mid-South. Isolated severe hail and damaging winds are possible across far northern Minnesota in the early to mid-afternoon. A brief tornado is possible in the northeast North Carolina vicinity in the early morning Tuesday. ...Wyoming to Black Hills vicinity... A shortwave trough over western Idaho will move east across Wyoming/western South Dakota during the day, as several embedded vorticity maxima contribute regions of enhanced ascent. Steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-9 deg C/km, combined with diurnal heating, will result in MLCAPE of a few hundred J/kg across much of the area. Despite weak buoyancy, the favorably-timed ascent will contribute to thunderstorm development/intensification this afternoon as storms approach northeast Wyoming/western South Dakota. Some hail could occur, and a deep and well-mixed boundary layer will lead to high-based convection capable of isolated strong/damaging gusts through early evening, with intensities diminishing thereafter as nocturnal cooling commences. ...Northeast North Carolina/southeast Virginia... A surface low southeast of Cape Hatteras is forecast to move towards the North Carolina coast through 12z Tuesday, with a belt of stronger low-level flow developing north/northwest of the low. Variability remains regarding the forecast location of the low and strength of low-level winds, however a conditional risk for a tornado would exist late tonight through early Tuesday morning with stronger convective elements, should sufficient low-level hodograph curvature develop as high theta-e air is advected west. ...Far northern Minnesota... Thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon within a northwest-southeast oriented arc from southeast Manitoba across northeast Ontario as a shortwave trough becomes increasingly negatively tilted while lifting northeast. Although development south of the international border is uncertain, some global guidance (and a convection-allowing model or two) suggest isolated development is possible. Moderate buoyancy and effective shear of 35-40 kt over far northern Minnesota suggest a conditional risk for severe wind/hail would exist if/where storm development occurs. ...Missouri/Mid-South.. Near and west/southwest of a residual front, a few strong/locally damaging wind gusts will be possible again this afternoon with pulse-type storms within a weakly-sheared but strongly unstable (MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg) thermodynamic environment. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN MINNESOTA...OZARKS/MID-SOUTH...AND COASTAL NC/VA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts are possible across Wyoming into western South Dakota this afternoon to early evening, as well as portions of the Ozarks/Mid-South. Isolated severe hail and damaging winds are possible across far northern Minnesota in the early to mid-afternoon. A brief tornado is possible in the northeast North Carolina vicinity in the early morning Tuesday. ...Wyoming to Black Hills vicinity... A shortwave trough over western Idaho will move east across Wyoming/western South Dakota during the day, as several embedded vorticity maxima contribute regions of enhanced ascent. Steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-9 deg C/km, combined with diurnal heating, will result in MLCAPE of a few hundred J/kg across much of the area. Despite weak buoyancy, the favorably-timed ascent will contribute to thunderstorm development/intensification this afternoon as storms approach northeast Wyoming/western South Dakota. Some hail could occur, and a deep and well-mixed boundary layer will lead to high-based convection capable of isolated strong/damaging gusts through early evening, with intensities diminishing thereafter as nocturnal cooling commences. ...Northeast North Carolina/southeast Virginia... A surface low southeast of Cape Hatteras is forecast to move towards the North Carolina coast through 12z Tuesday, with a belt of stronger low-level flow developing north/northwest of the low. Variability remains regarding the forecast location of the low and strength of low-level winds, however a conditional risk for a tornado would exist late tonight through early Tuesday morning with stronger convective elements, should sufficient low-level hodograph curvature develop as high theta-e air is advected west. ...Far northern Minnesota... Thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon within a northwest-southeast oriented arc from southeast Manitoba across northeast Ontario as a shortwave trough becomes increasingly negatively tilted while lifting northeast. Although development south of the international border is uncertain, some global guidance (and a convection-allowing model or two) suggest isolated development is possible. Moderate buoyancy and effective shear of 35-40 kt over far northern Minnesota suggest a conditional risk for severe wind/hail would exist if/where storm development occurs. ...Missouri/Mid-South.. Near and west/southwest of a residual front, a few strong/locally damaging wind gusts will be possible again this afternoon with pulse-type storms within a weakly-sheared but strongly unstable (MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg) thermodynamic environment. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/15/2025 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 15 Sep 2025 14:38:20 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 15 Sep 2025 15:22:19 GMT

Creeks in Sharp County have dried up, rivers were running low, ponds were stagnant, and livestock were suffering. A farmer reported that he was feeding his livestock hay in September when he would normally wait until December to break out the hay. The early expense was stressful. KAIT8 Online (Jonesboro, Ark.), Sep 14, 2025

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 15 Sep 2025 14:38:20 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 15 Sep 2025 14:38:20 GMT