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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is low on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the central/northern High Plains will make limited progress eastward into the Plains on Wednesday. This feature is expected to broaden and become more disorganized with time. A surface trough/cold front from the central Plains into the southern High Plains will similarly be mostly stationary until later in the period. Mid-level flow in the Plains will generally remain weak with only a modest increase behind the cold front closer to the upper trough. Morning clouds and precipitation are expected to be ongoing in the central Plains and parts of the southern High Plains. Upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints will be ahead of the boundary. This will lead to weak to moderate buoyancy. Thunderstorms are likely in the Front Range where low-end moisture and upslope flow overlap. This activity may not be very intense given the buoyancy and uncertain low-level thermodynamics. Thunderstorms in Kansas/Oklahoma will have greater buoyancy, but shear will be more limited. Depending on the position of the front and destabilization, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms could develop in the Raton Mesa vicinity. Marginal northwesterly deep-layer shear could promote a couple of stronger storms given steep lapse rates. However, confidence in a more organized severe threat in the Plains remains low at this time. ..Wendt.. 09/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is low on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the central/northern High Plains will make limited progress eastward into the Plains on Wednesday. This feature is expected to broaden and become more disorganized with time. A surface trough/cold front from the central Plains into the southern High Plains will similarly be mostly stationary until later in the period. Mid-level flow in the Plains will generally remain weak with only a modest increase behind the cold front closer to the upper trough. Morning clouds and precipitation are expected to be ongoing in the central Plains and parts of the southern High Plains. Upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints will be ahead of the boundary. This will lead to weak to moderate buoyancy. Thunderstorms are likely in the Front Range where low-end moisture and upslope flow overlap. This activity may not be very intense given the buoyancy and uncertain low-level thermodynamics. Thunderstorms in Kansas/Oklahoma will have greater buoyancy, but shear will be more limited. Depending on the position of the front and destabilization, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms could develop in the Raton Mesa vicinity. Marginal northwesterly deep-layer shear could promote a couple of stronger storms given steep lapse rates. However, confidence in a more organized severe threat in the Plains remains low at this time. ..Wendt.. 09/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is low on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the central/northern High Plains will make limited progress eastward into the Plains on Wednesday. This feature is expected to broaden and become more disorganized with time. A surface trough/cold front from the central Plains into the southern High Plains will similarly be mostly stationary until later in the period. Mid-level flow in the Plains will generally remain weak with only a modest increase behind the cold front closer to the upper trough. Morning clouds and precipitation are expected to be ongoing in the central Plains and parts of the southern High Plains. Upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints will be ahead of the boundary. This will lead to weak to moderate buoyancy. Thunderstorms are likely in the Front Range where low-end moisture and upslope flow overlap. This activity may not be very intense given the buoyancy and uncertain low-level thermodynamics. Thunderstorms in Kansas/Oklahoma will have greater buoyancy, but shear will be more limited. Depending on the position of the front and destabilization, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms could develop in the Raton Mesa vicinity. Marginal northwesterly deep-layer shear could promote a couple of stronger storms given steep lapse rates. However, confidence in a more organized severe threat in the Plains remains low at this time. ..Wendt.. 09/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is low on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the central/northern High Plains will make limited progress eastward into the Plains on Wednesday. This feature is expected to broaden and become more disorganized with time. A surface trough/cold front from the central Plains into the southern High Plains will similarly be mostly stationary until later in the period. Mid-level flow in the Plains will generally remain weak with only a modest increase behind the cold front closer to the upper trough. Morning clouds and precipitation are expected to be ongoing in the central Plains and parts of the southern High Plains. Upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints will be ahead of the boundary. This will lead to weak to moderate buoyancy. Thunderstorms are likely in the Front Range where low-end moisture and upslope flow overlap. This activity may not be very intense given the buoyancy and uncertain low-level thermodynamics. Thunderstorms in Kansas/Oklahoma will have greater buoyancy, but shear will be more limited. Depending on the position of the front and destabilization, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms could develop in the Raton Mesa vicinity. Marginal northwesterly deep-layer shear could promote a couple of stronger storms given steep lapse rates. However, confidence in a more organized severe threat in the Plains remains low at this time. ..Wendt.. 09/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is low on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the central/northern High Plains will make limited progress eastward into the Plains on Wednesday. This feature is expected to broaden and become more disorganized with time. A surface trough/cold front from the central Plains into the southern High Plains will similarly be mostly stationary until later in the period. Mid-level flow in the Plains will generally remain weak with only a modest increase behind the cold front closer to the upper trough. Morning clouds and precipitation are expected to be ongoing in the central Plains and parts of the southern High Plains. Upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints will be ahead of the boundary. This will lead to weak to moderate buoyancy. Thunderstorms are likely in the Front Range where low-end moisture and upslope flow overlap. This activity may not be very intense given the buoyancy and uncertain low-level thermodynamics. Thunderstorms in Kansas/Oklahoma will have greater buoyancy, but shear will be more limited. Depending on the position of the front and destabilization, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms could develop in the Raton Mesa vicinity. Marginal northwesterly deep-layer shear could promote a couple of stronger storms given steep lapse rates. However, confidence in a more organized severe threat in the Plains remains low at this time. ..Wendt.. 09/15/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Afternoon Update... No changes, periodic offshore flow remains likely over parts of the Northwest Coast D2/Tuesday morning and early afternoon. Winds should weaken and return to onshore into D3/Wednesday keeping fire-weather concerns localized at best. Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail over the Northeast and Midwest, but winds will remain light. This should keep fire-weather concerns low, see the prior outlook. ..Lyons.. 09/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states tomorrow (Tuesday), resulting in widespread surface high pressure overspreading the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Mostly quiescent fire weather conditions are expected for much of the Interior West. One possible exception may be the Pacific Northwest coastline, where modestly dry offshore flow is expected. Despite the offshore flow, the relatively poor fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread west of the Cascades, and the marginal nature of the expected dry/breezy conditions, precludes Elevated highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Afternoon Update... No changes, periodic offshore flow remains likely over parts of the Northwest Coast D2/Tuesday morning and early afternoon. Winds should weaken and return to onshore into D3/Wednesday keeping fire-weather concerns localized at best. Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail over the Northeast and Midwest, but winds will remain light. This should keep fire-weather concerns low, see the prior outlook. ..Lyons.. 09/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states tomorrow (Tuesday), resulting in widespread surface high pressure overspreading the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Mostly quiescent fire weather conditions are expected for much of the Interior West. One possible exception may be the Pacific Northwest coastline, where modestly dry offshore flow is expected. Despite the offshore flow, the relatively poor fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread west of the Cascades, and the marginal nature of the expected dry/breezy conditions, precludes Elevated highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Afternoon Update... No changes, periodic offshore flow remains likely over parts of the Northwest Coast D2/Tuesday morning and early afternoon. Winds should weaken and return to onshore into D3/Wednesday keeping fire-weather concerns localized at best. Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail over the Northeast and Midwest, but winds will remain light. This should keep fire-weather concerns low, see the prior outlook. ..Lyons.. 09/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states tomorrow (Tuesday), resulting in widespread surface high pressure overspreading the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Mostly quiescent fire weather conditions are expected for much of the Interior West. One possible exception may be the Pacific Northwest coastline, where modestly dry offshore flow is expected. Despite the offshore flow, the relatively poor fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread west of the Cascades, and the marginal nature of the expected dry/breezy conditions, precludes Elevated highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Afternoon Update... No changes, periodic offshore flow remains likely over parts of the Northwest Coast D2/Tuesday morning and early afternoon. Winds should weaken and return to onshore into D3/Wednesday keeping fire-weather concerns localized at best. Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail over the Northeast and Midwest, but winds will remain light. This should keep fire-weather concerns low, see the prior outlook. ..Lyons.. 09/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states tomorrow (Tuesday), resulting in widespread surface high pressure overspreading the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Mostly quiescent fire weather conditions are expected for much of the Interior West. One possible exception may be the Pacific Northwest coastline, where modestly dry offshore flow is expected. Despite the offshore flow, the relatively poor fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread west of the Cascades, and the marginal nature of the expected dry/breezy conditions, precludes Elevated highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Afternoon Update... No changes, periodic offshore flow remains likely over parts of the Northwest Coast D2/Tuesday morning and early afternoon. Winds should weaken and return to onshore into D3/Wednesday keeping fire-weather concerns localized at best. Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail over the Northeast and Midwest, but winds will remain light. This should keep fire-weather concerns low, see the prior outlook. ..Lyons.. 09/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states tomorrow (Tuesday), resulting in widespread surface high pressure overspreading the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Mostly quiescent fire weather conditions are expected for much of the Interior West. One possible exception may be the Pacific Northwest coastline, where modestly dry offshore flow is expected. Despite the offshore flow, the relatively poor fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread west of the Cascades, and the marginal nature of the expected dry/breezy conditions, precludes Elevated highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Afternoon Update... No changes, periodic offshore flow remains likely over parts of the Northwest Coast D2/Tuesday morning and early afternoon. Winds should weaken and return to onshore into D3/Wednesday keeping fire-weather concerns localized at best. Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail over the Northeast and Midwest, but winds will remain light. This should keep fire-weather concerns low, see the prior outlook. ..Lyons.. 09/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states tomorrow (Tuesday), resulting in widespread surface high pressure overspreading the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Mostly quiescent fire weather conditions are expected for much of the Interior West. One possible exception may be the Pacific Northwest coastline, where modestly dry offshore flow is expected. Despite the offshore flow, the relatively poor fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread west of the Cascades, and the marginal nature of the expected dry/breezy conditions, precludes Elevated highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Afternoon Update... No changes, periodic offshore flow remains likely over parts of the Northwest Coast D2/Tuesday morning and early afternoon. Winds should weaken and return to onshore into D3/Wednesday keeping fire-weather concerns localized at best. Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail over the Northeast and Midwest, but winds will remain light. This should keep fire-weather concerns low, see the prior outlook. ..Lyons.. 09/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states tomorrow (Tuesday), resulting in widespread surface high pressure overspreading the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Mostly quiescent fire weather conditions are expected for much of the Interior West. One possible exception may be the Pacific Northwest coastline, where modestly dry offshore flow is expected. Despite the offshore flow, the relatively poor fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread west of the Cascades, and the marginal nature of the expected dry/breezy conditions, precludes Elevated highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Afternoon Update... No changes, periodic offshore flow remains likely over parts of the Northwest Coast D2/Tuesday morning and early afternoon. Winds should weaken and return to onshore into D3/Wednesday keeping fire-weather concerns localized at best. Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail over the Northeast and Midwest, but winds will remain light. This should keep fire-weather concerns low, see the prior outlook. ..Lyons.. 09/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states tomorrow (Tuesday), resulting in widespread surface high pressure overspreading the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Mostly quiescent fire weather conditions are expected for much of the Interior West. One possible exception may be the Pacific Northwest coastline, where modestly dry offshore flow is expected. Despite the offshore flow, the relatively poor fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread west of the Cascades, and the marginal nature of the expected dry/breezy conditions, precludes Elevated highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Afternoon Update... No changes, periodic offshore flow remains likely over parts of the Northwest Coast D2/Tuesday morning and early afternoon. Winds should weaken and return to onshore into D3/Wednesday keeping fire-weather concerns localized at best. Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail over the Northeast and Midwest, but winds will remain light. This should keep fire-weather concerns low, see the prior outlook. ..Lyons.. 09/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states tomorrow (Tuesday), resulting in widespread surface high pressure overspreading the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Mostly quiescent fire weather conditions are expected for much of the Interior West. One possible exception may be the Pacific Northwest coastline, where modestly dry offshore flow is expected. Despite the offshore flow, the relatively poor fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread west of the Cascades, and the marginal nature of the expected dry/breezy conditions, precludes Elevated highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the central Plains. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted trough will move through the northern Great Basin and eventually reach the High Plains by early Wednesday morning. A weak surface trough/cold front will be positioned from northern Minnesota southwestward into the central High Plains. Another weak surface trough will extend farther south into the southern High Plains. Off the Mid-Atlantic Coast, a weak surface low will slowly shift north and weaken with time. ...Central Plains... With the mid-level ascent from the approaching trough not arriving until late afternoon/evening, it is not clear how much storm development will occur prior to 00Z. Recent CAM guidance does suggest that convergence along the surface trough/front may be sufficient for late afternoon storms. The strongest shear will likely remain behind the boundary. Upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints will promote around 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Storms that do develop will not likely remain discrete for very long given boundary parallel shear. Isolated severe gusts and large hail will be the main hazards. Storms should generally weaken during the evening and beyond given a weak low-level jet response. ...Southern Plains... While greater surface heating is expected to occur in this region, limited low-level moisture will keep overall buoyancy modest. Shear will also be rather modest during the afternoon. A cluster or two of storms could develop in the High Plains and move eastward, possibly producing locally gusty winds. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... There is a weak signal within guidance for evening/overnight storm development along the cold front. Convergence along the boundary will only marginally increase after dark. Forcing for ascent will also be weak and late-arriving. Steep lapse rates could promote a stronger storm or two with an attendant hail risk. However, with stronger shear behind the boundary and highly uncertain initiation, probabilities do not appear warranted. ...North Carolina/Virginia Tidewater... A weak offshore low will mostly remain offshore. The low will be gradually weakening, particularly by the afternoon. Low-level flow enhancement around the low may promote some increased risk for gusty winds with convection, but limited onshore progression of greater buoyancy along with rain/clouds will likely prohibit any greater threat for damaging gusts. ..Wendt.. 09/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the central Plains. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted trough will move through the northern Great Basin and eventually reach the High Plains by early Wednesday morning. A weak surface trough/cold front will be positioned from northern Minnesota southwestward into the central High Plains. Another weak surface trough will extend farther south into the southern High Plains. Off the Mid-Atlantic Coast, a weak surface low will slowly shift north and weaken with time. ...Central Plains... With the mid-level ascent from the approaching trough not arriving until late afternoon/evening, it is not clear how much storm development will occur prior to 00Z. Recent CAM guidance does suggest that convergence along the surface trough/front may be sufficient for late afternoon storms. The strongest shear will likely remain behind the boundary. Upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints will promote around 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Storms that do develop will not likely remain discrete for very long given boundary parallel shear. Isolated severe gusts and large hail will be the main hazards. Storms should generally weaken during the evening and beyond given a weak low-level jet response. ...Southern Plains... While greater surface heating is expected to occur in this region, limited low-level moisture will keep overall buoyancy modest. Shear will also be rather modest during the afternoon. A cluster or two of storms could develop in the High Plains and move eastward, possibly producing locally gusty winds. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... There is a weak signal within guidance for evening/overnight storm development along the cold front. Convergence along the boundary will only marginally increase after dark. Forcing for ascent will also be weak and late-arriving. Steep lapse rates could promote a stronger storm or two with an attendant hail risk. However, with stronger shear behind the boundary and highly uncertain initiation, probabilities do not appear warranted. ...North Carolina/Virginia Tidewater... A weak offshore low will mostly remain offshore. The low will be gradually weakening, particularly by the afternoon. Low-level flow enhancement around the low may promote some increased risk for gusty winds with convection, but limited onshore progression of greater buoyancy along with rain/clouds will likely prohibit any greater threat for damaging gusts. ..Wendt.. 09/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the central Plains. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted trough will move through the northern Great Basin and eventually reach the High Plains by early Wednesday morning. A weak surface trough/cold front will be positioned from northern Minnesota southwestward into the central High Plains. Another weak surface trough will extend farther south into the southern High Plains. Off the Mid-Atlantic Coast, a weak surface low will slowly shift north and weaken with time. ...Central Plains... With the mid-level ascent from the approaching trough not arriving until late afternoon/evening, it is not clear how much storm development will occur prior to 00Z. Recent CAM guidance does suggest that convergence along the surface trough/front may be sufficient for late afternoon storms. The strongest shear will likely remain behind the boundary. Upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints will promote around 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Storms that do develop will not likely remain discrete for very long given boundary parallel shear. Isolated severe gusts and large hail will be the main hazards. Storms should generally weaken during the evening and beyond given a weak low-level jet response. ...Southern Plains... While greater surface heating is expected to occur in this region, limited low-level moisture will keep overall buoyancy modest. Shear will also be rather modest during the afternoon. A cluster or two of storms could develop in the High Plains and move eastward, possibly producing locally gusty winds. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... There is a weak signal within guidance for evening/overnight storm development along the cold front. Convergence along the boundary will only marginally increase after dark. Forcing for ascent will also be weak and late-arriving. Steep lapse rates could promote a stronger storm or two with an attendant hail risk. However, with stronger shear behind the boundary and highly uncertain initiation, probabilities do not appear warranted. ...North Carolina/Virginia Tidewater... A weak offshore low will mostly remain offshore. The low will be gradually weakening, particularly by the afternoon. Low-level flow enhancement around the low may promote some increased risk for gusty winds with convection, but limited onshore progression of greater buoyancy along with rain/clouds will likely prohibit any greater threat for damaging gusts. ..Wendt.. 09/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the central Plains. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted trough will move through the northern Great Basin and eventually reach the High Plains by early Wednesday morning. A weak surface trough/cold front will be positioned from northern Minnesota southwestward into the central High Plains. Another weak surface trough will extend farther south into the southern High Plains. Off the Mid-Atlantic Coast, a weak surface low will slowly shift north and weaken with time. ...Central Plains... With the mid-level ascent from the approaching trough not arriving until late afternoon/evening, it is not clear how much storm development will occur prior to 00Z. Recent CAM guidance does suggest that convergence along the surface trough/front may be sufficient for late afternoon storms. The strongest shear will likely remain behind the boundary. Upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints will promote around 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Storms that do develop will not likely remain discrete for very long given boundary parallel shear. Isolated severe gusts and large hail will be the main hazards. Storms should generally weaken during the evening and beyond given a weak low-level jet response. ...Southern Plains... While greater surface heating is expected to occur in this region, limited low-level moisture will keep overall buoyancy modest. Shear will also be rather modest during the afternoon. A cluster or two of storms could develop in the High Plains and move eastward, possibly producing locally gusty winds. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... There is a weak signal within guidance for evening/overnight storm development along the cold front. Convergence along the boundary will only marginally increase after dark. Forcing for ascent will also be weak and late-arriving. Steep lapse rates could promote a stronger storm or two with an attendant hail risk. However, with stronger shear behind the boundary and highly uncertain initiation, probabilities do not appear warranted. ...North Carolina/Virginia Tidewater... A weak offshore low will mostly remain offshore. The low will be gradually weakening, particularly by the afternoon. Low-level flow enhancement around the low may promote some increased risk for gusty winds with convection, but limited onshore progression of greater buoyancy along with rain/clouds will likely prohibit any greater threat for damaging gusts. ..Wendt.. 09/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the central Plains. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted trough will move through the northern Great Basin and eventually reach the High Plains by early Wednesday morning. A weak surface trough/cold front will be positioned from northern Minnesota southwestward into the central High Plains. Another weak surface trough will extend farther south into the southern High Plains. Off the Mid-Atlantic Coast, a weak surface low will slowly shift north and weaken with time. ...Central Plains... With the mid-level ascent from the approaching trough not arriving until late afternoon/evening, it is not clear how much storm development will occur prior to 00Z. Recent CAM guidance does suggest that convergence along the surface trough/front may be sufficient for late afternoon storms. The strongest shear will likely remain behind the boundary. Upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints will promote around 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Storms that do develop will not likely remain discrete for very long given boundary parallel shear. Isolated severe gusts and large hail will be the main hazards. Storms should generally weaken during the evening and beyond given a weak low-level jet response. ...Southern Plains... While greater surface heating is expected to occur in this region, limited low-level moisture will keep overall buoyancy modest. Shear will also be rather modest during the afternoon. A cluster or two of storms could develop in the High Plains and move eastward, possibly producing locally gusty winds. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... There is a weak signal within guidance for evening/overnight storm development along the cold front. Convergence along the boundary will only marginally increase after dark. Forcing for ascent will also be weak and late-arriving. Steep lapse rates could promote a stronger storm or two with an attendant hail risk. However, with stronger shear behind the boundary and highly uncertain initiation, probabilities do not appear warranted. ...North Carolina/Virginia Tidewater... A weak offshore low will mostly remain offshore. The low will be gradually weakening, particularly by the afternoon. Low-level flow enhancement around the low may promote some increased risk for gusty winds with convection, but limited onshore progression of greater buoyancy along with rain/clouds will likely prohibit any greater threat for damaging gusts. ..Wendt.. 09/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the central Plains. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted trough will move through the northern Great Basin and eventually reach the High Plains by early Wednesday morning. A weak surface trough/cold front will be positioned from northern Minnesota southwestward into the central High Plains. Another weak surface trough will extend farther south into the southern High Plains. Off the Mid-Atlantic Coast, a weak surface low will slowly shift north and weaken with time. ...Central Plains... With the mid-level ascent from the approaching trough not arriving until late afternoon/evening, it is not clear how much storm development will occur prior to 00Z. Recent CAM guidance does suggest that convergence along the surface trough/front may be sufficient for late afternoon storms. The strongest shear will likely remain behind the boundary. Upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints will promote around 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Storms that do develop will not likely remain discrete for very long given boundary parallel shear. Isolated severe gusts and large hail will be the main hazards. Storms should generally weaken during the evening and beyond given a weak low-level jet response. ...Southern Plains... While greater surface heating is expected to occur in this region, limited low-level moisture will keep overall buoyancy modest. Shear will also be rather modest during the afternoon. A cluster or two of storms could develop in the High Plains and move eastward, possibly producing locally gusty winds. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... There is a weak signal within guidance for evening/overnight storm development along the cold front. Convergence along the boundary will only marginally increase after dark. Forcing for ascent will also be weak and late-arriving. Steep lapse rates could promote a stronger storm or two with an attendant hail risk. However, with stronger shear behind the boundary and highly uncertain initiation, probabilities do not appear warranted. ...North Carolina/Virginia Tidewater... A weak offshore low will mostly remain offshore. The low will be gradually weakening, particularly by the afternoon. Low-level flow enhancement around the low may promote some increased risk for gusty winds with convection, but limited onshore progression of greater buoyancy along with rain/clouds will likely prohibit any greater threat for damaging gusts. ..Wendt.. 09/15/2025 Read more