Aggregator

Issued at 800 AM MST Mon Sep 15 2025 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 151435 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 800 AM MST Mon Sep 15 2025 Satellite images show that Mario has changed little since the previous advisory, though recently the deep convection has been bursting near the center. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates remain near 45 kt, with objective estimates from UW-CIMSS generally a little higher. Thus, the current intensity will remain 50 kt for this advisory. Mario is moving west-northwestward, or 300 degrees, at 10 kt. A gradual turn toward the northwest is expected during the next couple of days while the cyclone moves between a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico and a mid-level low to its northwest. The biggest question is what happens to the remnants of Mario in a few days, with the models in poor agreement on whether it turns more to the north, like the GFS, or towards the west, like the HWRF or GDMI. For now, the official forecast will stay closer to the westernmost model cluster and assume the weak cyclone doesn't feel stronger mid-level southerly flow. The new forecast is a touch to the right of the previous one. The storm has a limited window for any strengthening within light shear conditions and warm waters. However, there are plenty of stable stratocumulus clouds on satellite just northwest of the circulation, suggesting it doesn't have much time left for intensification. By Tuesday, Mario should begin to weaken as it crosses over much cooler waters with higher shear. Mario should lose all deep convection after 36h and become a remnant low by 48h. The new NHC forecast prediction is slightly decreased from the last one and ends up pretty close to the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 20.0N 113.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 20.8N 114.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 22.0N 116.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 23.5N 118.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 24.7N 119.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/0000Z 25.4N 119.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1200Z 26.0N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake/Putnam

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 15 2025 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 151434 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC MON SEP 15 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 115W 34 9 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/PUTNAM

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 15 2025 ZCZC MIAPWSEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC MON SEP 15 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 115W 34 9 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/PUTNAM NNNN

Issued at 800 AM MST Mon Sep 15 2025 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 151434 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 800 AM MST Mon Sep 15 2025 ...MARIO CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FARTHER AWAY FROM SOCORRO ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.0N 113.2W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM WNW OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 113.2 West. Mario is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion with a gradual turn towards the northwest is expected over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little significant change in strength is anticipated today, followed by gradual weakening beginning on Tuesday. Mario could become a post-tropical cyclone on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Blake/Putnam

...MARIO CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FARTHER AWAY FROM SOCORRO ISLAND... As of 8:00 AM MST Mon Sep 15 the center of Mario was located near 20.0, -113.2 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 15 2025 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 151433 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC MON SEP 15 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 113.2W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS.... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 113.2W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 112.6W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 20.8N 114.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 22.0N 116.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 23.5N 118.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 24.7N 119.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 25.4N 119.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 26.0N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 113.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/PUTNAM

Hydro dams in Maine, Vermont, and New Hampshire were struggling to generate power due to drought. Average daily hydropower generation went from more than 23,000 megawatt hours in June to about half that in August, according to ISO-New England records. When hydropower production is down, power must come from other sources to compensate. In New England, natural gas is often the first option for generating additional power, per the operations manager for FirstLight. Maine Public (Bangor, Maine), Sep 15, 2025

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts are possible across Wyoming into western South Dakota this afternoon to early evening. Isolated severe hail and damaging wind are possible across far northern Minnesota in the early to mid-afternoon. A brief tornado is possible in the northeast North Carolina vicinity in the early morning Tuesday. ...WY to western SD... A shortwave trough over western ID will move east across WY/western SD during the day, as several embedded vorticity maxima contribute regions of enhanced ascent. Steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-9 deg C/km, combined with diurnal heating, will result in MLCAPE of a few hundred J/kg across much of the area. Despite weak buoyancy, the favorably-timed ascent will contribute to thunderstorm development/intensification this afternoon as storms approach northeast WY/western SD. A deep and well-mixed boundary layer will lead to high-based convection capable of isolated strong/damaging gusts through early evening, with intensities diminishing thereafter as nocturnal cooling commences. ...Northeast NC/southeast VA vicinity... A surface low southeast of Cape Hatteras is forecast to move towards the NC coast through 12z Tuesday, with a belt of stronger low-level flow developing north/northwest of the low. Variability remains regarding the forecast location of the low and strength of low-level winds, however a conditional risk for a tornado would exist early Tuesday morning with stronger convective elements, should sufficient low-level hodograph curvature develop, as high theta-e air is advected west across the northeast NC/southeast VA vicinity. ...Far northern MN... Thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon within a northwest-southeast oriented arc from southeast Manitoba across northeast Ontario as a shortwave trough becomes increasingly negatively tilted while lifting northeast. Although development south of the international border is uncertain, some CAM guidance suggest isolated development is possible. Moderate buoyancy and effective shear of 35-40 kts over far northern MN suggests a conditional risk for severe wind/hail would exist should storm development occur in this area. ...MO/AR vicinity... A few strong gusts will be possible again today with pulse-type storms within a weakly-sheared but strongly unstable (MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg) environment. ..Bunting/Broyles.. 09/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts are possible across Wyoming into western South Dakota this afternoon to early evening. Isolated severe hail and damaging wind are possible across far northern Minnesota in the early to mid-afternoon. A brief tornado is possible in the northeast North Carolina vicinity in the early morning Tuesday. ...WY to western SD... A shortwave trough over western ID will move east across WY/western SD during the day, as several embedded vorticity maxima contribute regions of enhanced ascent. Steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-9 deg C/km, combined with diurnal heating, will result in MLCAPE of a few hundred J/kg across much of the area. Despite weak buoyancy, the favorably-timed ascent will contribute to thunderstorm development/intensification this afternoon as storms approach northeast WY/western SD. A deep and well-mixed boundary layer will lead to high-based convection capable of isolated strong/damaging gusts through early evening, with intensities diminishing thereafter as nocturnal cooling commences. ...Northeast NC/southeast VA vicinity... A surface low southeast of Cape Hatteras is forecast to move towards the NC coast through 12z Tuesday, with a belt of stronger low-level flow developing north/northwest of the low. Variability remains regarding the forecast location of the low and strength of low-level winds, however a conditional risk for a tornado would exist early Tuesday morning with stronger convective elements, should sufficient low-level hodograph curvature develop, as high theta-e air is advected west across the northeast NC/southeast VA vicinity. ...Far northern MN... Thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon within a northwest-southeast oriented arc from southeast Manitoba across northeast Ontario as a shortwave trough becomes increasingly negatively tilted while lifting northeast. Although development south of the international border is uncertain, some CAM guidance suggest isolated development is possible. Moderate buoyancy and effective shear of 35-40 kts over far northern MN suggests a conditional risk for severe wind/hail would exist should storm development occur in this area. ...MO/AR vicinity... A few strong gusts will be possible again today with pulse-type storms within a weakly-sheared but strongly unstable (MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg) environment. ..Bunting/Broyles.. 09/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts are possible across Wyoming into western South Dakota this afternoon to early evening. Isolated severe hail and damaging wind are possible across far northern Minnesota in the early to mid-afternoon. A brief tornado is possible in the northeast North Carolina vicinity in the early morning Tuesday. ...WY to western SD... A shortwave trough over western ID will move east across WY/western SD during the day, as several embedded vorticity maxima contribute regions of enhanced ascent. Steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-9 deg C/km, combined with diurnal heating, will result in MLCAPE of a few hundred J/kg across much of the area. Despite weak buoyancy, the favorably-timed ascent will contribute to thunderstorm development/intensification this afternoon as storms approach northeast WY/western SD. A deep and well-mixed boundary layer will lead to high-based convection capable of isolated strong/damaging gusts through early evening, with intensities diminishing thereafter as nocturnal cooling commences. ...Northeast NC/southeast VA vicinity... A surface low southeast of Cape Hatteras is forecast to move towards the NC coast through 12z Tuesday, with a belt of stronger low-level flow developing north/northwest of the low. Variability remains regarding the forecast location of the low and strength of low-level winds, however a conditional risk for a tornado would exist early Tuesday morning with stronger convective elements, should sufficient low-level hodograph curvature develop, as high theta-e air is advected west across the northeast NC/southeast VA vicinity. ...Far northern MN... Thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon within a northwest-southeast oriented arc from southeast Manitoba across northeast Ontario as a shortwave trough becomes increasingly negatively tilted while lifting northeast. Although development south of the international border is uncertain, some CAM guidance suggest isolated development is possible. Moderate buoyancy and effective shear of 35-40 kts over far northern MN suggests a conditional risk for severe wind/hail would exist should storm development occur in this area. ...MO/AR vicinity... A few strong gusts will be possible again today with pulse-type storms within a weakly-sheared but strongly unstable (MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg) environment. ..Bunting/Broyles.. 09/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts are possible across Wyoming into western South Dakota this afternoon to early evening. Isolated severe hail and damaging wind are possible across far northern Minnesota in the early to mid-afternoon. A brief tornado is possible in the northeast North Carolina vicinity in the early morning Tuesday. ...WY to western SD... A shortwave trough over western ID will move east across WY/western SD during the day, as several embedded vorticity maxima contribute regions of enhanced ascent. Steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-9 deg C/km, combined with diurnal heating, will result in MLCAPE of a few hundred J/kg across much of the area. Despite weak buoyancy, the favorably-timed ascent will contribute to thunderstorm development/intensification this afternoon as storms approach northeast WY/western SD. A deep and well-mixed boundary layer will lead to high-based convection capable of isolated strong/damaging gusts through early evening, with intensities diminishing thereafter as nocturnal cooling commences. ...Northeast NC/southeast VA vicinity... A surface low southeast of Cape Hatteras is forecast to move towards the NC coast through 12z Tuesday, with a belt of stronger low-level flow developing north/northwest of the low. Variability remains regarding the forecast location of the low and strength of low-level winds, however a conditional risk for a tornado would exist early Tuesday morning with stronger convective elements, should sufficient low-level hodograph curvature develop, as high theta-e air is advected west across the northeast NC/southeast VA vicinity. ...Far northern MN... Thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon within a northwest-southeast oriented arc from southeast Manitoba across northeast Ontario as a shortwave trough becomes increasingly negatively tilted while lifting northeast. Although development south of the international border is uncertain, some CAM guidance suggest isolated development is possible. Moderate buoyancy and effective shear of 35-40 kts over far northern MN suggests a conditional risk for severe wind/hail would exist should storm development occur in this area. ...MO/AR vicinity... A few strong gusts will be possible again today with pulse-type storms within a weakly-sheared but strongly unstable (MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg) environment. ..Bunting/Broyles.. 09/15/2025 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151130
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Sep 15 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Mario, located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico:
An elongated trough of low pressure located several hundred miles
off the coast of southern Mexico is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could
form by the middle to latter part of this week as it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central east Pacific.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Mario are issued under WMO
header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Mario are issued under WMO
header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 15 Sep 2025 08:49:46 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 15 Sep 2025 09:22:14 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 15 Sep 2025 08:49:46 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 15 Sep 2025 08:49:46 GMT

Issued at 200 AM MST Mon Sep 15 2025 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 150845 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 200 AM MST Mon Sep 15 2025 The satellite presentation of Mario has improved since the previous advisory, with a burst of deep convection and very cold cloud tops persisting over the low-level center. Upper-level outflow appears well established in all quadrants, and more defined curved banding is developing on the northern side of the convective burst. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were 3.0/45 kt and 2.5/35 kt, respectively, while objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have ranged from 40 to 60 kt and have been trending upward. A blend of these data, along with the improved satellite appearance, supports raising the initial intensity to 50 kt for this advisory. Mario is moving west-northwestward, or 295 degrees, at 10 kt. A gradual turn toward the northwest is expected during the next couple of days as the cyclone moves between a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico and a mid-level low to its northwest. Forward speed should decrease after 48 h as Mario weakens and becomes more influenced by the low-level flow. The forecast track is close to the previous one through 24 h, then shifts slightly eastward thereafter to better match the consensus guidance. The track is closest to the GDMI aid, which lies between the consensus and the prior forecast. Mario will remain in a moist, low-shear environment over warm waters for the next 12 h, which should allow for some additional strengthening. Thereafter, the cyclone will move near the 26C isotherm and encounter increasing west-southwesterly vertical wind shear, initiating a weakening trend. Steady weakening is then expected as Mario moves over cooler waters and into stronger shear. The cyclone is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by 48 h, with dissipation likely by 96 h. The official intensity forecast is near the upper end of the guidance through 24 h, then trends toward the consensus thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 19.4N 112.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 20.1N 113.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 21.4N 115.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 22.7N 117.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 24.0N 118.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/1800Z 25.2N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/0600Z 26.0N 120.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 15 2025 959 FOPZ13 KNHC 150845 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 0900 UTC MON SEP 15 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 115W 34 3 34(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) 20N 115W 50 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)

Issued at 200 AM MST Mon Sep 15 2025 786 WTPZ33 KNHC 150844 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 200 AM MST Mon Sep 15 2025 ...MARIO STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM SOCORRO ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 112.3W ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM WNW OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 112.3 West. Mario is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion with a gradual turn toward the northwest is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is expected today, with steady weakening beginning by late tonight and continuing on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)

...MARIO STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM SOCORRO ISLAND... As of 2:00 AM MST Mon Sep 15 the center of Mario was located near 19.4, -112.3 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 15 2025 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 150844 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 0900 UTC MON SEP 15 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 112.3W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS.... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 112.3W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 111.8W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 20.1N 113.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 21.4N 115.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 22.7N 117.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 24.0N 118.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 25.2N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 26.0N 120.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 112.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper low/shortwave trough will persist over the north-central U.S. for much of the period. This system is not forecast to deepen, resulting in little surface cyclogenesis, with mainly weak surface troughing persisting over the Plains. Southerly low-level flow will maintain a seasonally moist airmass, and periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected each day across parts of the Plains to the MS Valley. Modest vertical shear and airmass modification from daily rounds of convection will likely limit overall severe potential. Medium range guidance suggests by late in the period, around Day 8/Mon, a stronger surface cold front may sweep across portions of the Plains as a deepening, more progressive upper trough moves from the Rockies into the Plains. Read more