Aggregator

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 15 2025 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 152034 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC MON SEP 15 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/PUTNAM

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 15 2025 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 152033 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132025 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC MON SEP 15 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 114.4W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 15SE 15SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 114.4W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 113.9W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 21.8N 115.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 23.3N 117.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 24.4N 118.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 25.4N 119.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 26.3N 120.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 114.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/PUTNAM

...MARIO A LITTLE STRONGER WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD... As of 2:00 PM MST Mon Sep 15 the center of Mario was located near 20.8, -114.4 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 200 PM MST Mon Sep 15 2025 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 152033 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mario Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 200 PM MST Mon Sep 15 2025 ...MARIO A LITTLE STRONGER WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.8N 114.4W ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM WNW OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mario was located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 114.4 West. Mario is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is forecast during the next few days. Satellite imagery indicates that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, with weakening likely to begin on Tuesday. Mario is anticipated to become a post-tropical cyclone on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Blake/Putnam

The Barton Springs-Edwards Aquifer Conservation District declared a Stage 3 Exceptional Drought on September 12 for just the second time in the district’s history. The only other time was in December 2023. Effective October 1, groundwater pumping must be reduced by 30%-100% by anyone holding a permit with the district, which includes individual well owners, water utilities and the cities of Kyle and Buda. The decision was made after the Lovelady monitor well in South Austin dropped rapidly. This well usually sits at 490.9 feet above mean sea level. Water users were urged to conserve water. KXAN (Austin, Texas), Sep 15, 2025

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN MINNESOTA...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND COASTAL NC/SC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts are possible across Wyoming into western South Dakota this afternoon to early evening, as well as portions of the Mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe hail and damaging winds are also possible across far northern Minnesota this afternoon. A brief tornado is possible in the northeast North Carolina vicinity in the early morning Tuesday. ...20Z Update... The Marginal Risk in the Mid MS Valley was expanded slightly northward across IA. Diurnal heating/destabilization amid middle/upper 60s dewpoints is yielding moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy along a remnant north-south-oriented surface boundary. Given around 25-30 kt of effective shear, a couple loosely organized storms may become capable of producing strong gusts and marginally severe hail. ..Weinman.. 09/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025/ ...Wyoming to Black Hills vicinity... A shortwave trough over western Idaho will move east across Wyoming/western South Dakota during the day, as several embedded vorticity maxima contribute regions of enhanced ascent. Steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-9 deg C/km, combined with diurnal heating, will result in MLCAPE of a few hundred J/kg across much of the area. Despite weak buoyancy, the favorably-timed ascent will contribute to thunderstorm development/intensification this afternoon as storms approach northeast Wyoming/western South Dakota. Some hail could occur, and a deep and well-mixed boundary layer will lead to high-based convection capable of isolated strong/damaging gusts through early evening, with intensities diminishing thereafter as nocturnal cooling commences. ...Northeast North Carolina/southeast Virginia... A surface low southeast of Cape Hatteras is forecast to move towards the North Carolina coast through 12z Tuesday, with a belt of stronger low-level flow developing north/northwest of the low. Variability remains regarding the forecast location of the low and strength of low-level winds, however a conditional risk for a tornado would exist late tonight through early Tuesday morning with stronger convective elements, should sufficient low-level hodograph curvature develop as high theta-e air is advected west. ...Far northern Minnesota... Thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon within a northwest-southeast oriented arc from southeast Manitoba across northeast Ontario as a shortwave trough becomes increasingly negatively tilted while lifting northeast. Although development south of the international border is uncertain, some global guidance (and a convection-allowing model or two) suggest isolated development is possible. Moderate buoyancy and effective shear of 35-40 kt over far northern Minnesota suggest a conditional risk for severe wind/hail would exist if/where storm development occurs. ...Missouri/Mid-South.. Near and west/southwest of a residual front, a few strong/locally damaging wind gusts will be possible again this afternoon with pulse-type storms within a weakly-sheared but strongly unstable (MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg) thermodynamic environment. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN MINNESOTA...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND COASTAL NC/SC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts are possible across Wyoming into western South Dakota this afternoon to early evening, as well as portions of the Mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe hail and damaging winds are also possible across far northern Minnesota this afternoon. A brief tornado is possible in the northeast North Carolina vicinity in the early morning Tuesday. ...20Z Update... The Marginal Risk in the Mid MS Valley was expanded slightly northward across IA. Diurnal heating/destabilization amid middle/upper 60s dewpoints is yielding moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy along a remnant north-south-oriented surface boundary. Given around 25-30 kt of effective shear, a couple loosely organized storms may become capable of producing strong gusts and marginally severe hail. ..Weinman.. 09/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025/ ...Wyoming to Black Hills vicinity... A shortwave trough over western Idaho will move east across Wyoming/western South Dakota during the day, as several embedded vorticity maxima contribute regions of enhanced ascent. Steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-9 deg C/km, combined with diurnal heating, will result in MLCAPE of a few hundred J/kg across much of the area. Despite weak buoyancy, the favorably-timed ascent will contribute to thunderstorm development/intensification this afternoon as storms approach northeast Wyoming/western South Dakota. Some hail could occur, and a deep and well-mixed boundary layer will lead to high-based convection capable of isolated strong/damaging gusts through early evening, with intensities diminishing thereafter as nocturnal cooling commences. ...Northeast North Carolina/southeast Virginia... A surface low southeast of Cape Hatteras is forecast to move towards the North Carolina coast through 12z Tuesday, with a belt of stronger low-level flow developing north/northwest of the low. Variability remains regarding the forecast location of the low and strength of low-level winds, however a conditional risk for a tornado would exist late tonight through early Tuesday morning with stronger convective elements, should sufficient low-level hodograph curvature develop as high theta-e air is advected west. ...Far northern Minnesota... Thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon within a northwest-southeast oriented arc from southeast Manitoba across northeast Ontario as a shortwave trough becomes increasingly negatively tilted while lifting northeast. Although development south of the international border is uncertain, some global guidance (and a convection-allowing model or two) suggest isolated development is possible. Moderate buoyancy and effective shear of 35-40 kt over far northern Minnesota suggest a conditional risk for severe wind/hail would exist if/where storm development occurs. ...Missouri/Mid-South.. Near and west/southwest of a residual front, a few strong/locally damaging wind gusts will be possible again this afternoon with pulse-type storms within a weakly-sheared but strongly unstable (MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg) thermodynamic environment. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN MINNESOTA...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND COASTAL NC/SC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts are possible across Wyoming into western South Dakota this afternoon to early evening, as well as portions of the Mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe hail and damaging winds are also possible across far northern Minnesota this afternoon. A brief tornado is possible in the northeast North Carolina vicinity in the early morning Tuesday. ...20Z Update... The Marginal Risk in the Mid MS Valley was expanded slightly northward across IA. Diurnal heating/destabilization amid middle/upper 60s dewpoints is yielding moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy along a remnant north-south-oriented surface boundary. Given around 25-30 kt of effective shear, a couple loosely organized storms may become capable of producing strong gusts and marginally severe hail. ..Weinman.. 09/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025/ ...Wyoming to Black Hills vicinity... A shortwave trough over western Idaho will move east across Wyoming/western South Dakota during the day, as several embedded vorticity maxima contribute regions of enhanced ascent. Steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-9 deg C/km, combined with diurnal heating, will result in MLCAPE of a few hundred J/kg across much of the area. Despite weak buoyancy, the favorably-timed ascent will contribute to thunderstorm development/intensification this afternoon as storms approach northeast Wyoming/western South Dakota. Some hail could occur, and a deep and well-mixed boundary layer will lead to high-based convection capable of isolated strong/damaging gusts through early evening, with intensities diminishing thereafter as nocturnal cooling commences. ...Northeast North Carolina/southeast Virginia... A surface low southeast of Cape Hatteras is forecast to move towards the North Carolina coast through 12z Tuesday, with a belt of stronger low-level flow developing north/northwest of the low. Variability remains regarding the forecast location of the low and strength of low-level winds, however a conditional risk for a tornado would exist late tonight through early Tuesday morning with stronger convective elements, should sufficient low-level hodograph curvature develop as high theta-e air is advected west. ...Far northern Minnesota... Thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon within a northwest-southeast oriented arc from southeast Manitoba across northeast Ontario as a shortwave trough becomes increasingly negatively tilted while lifting northeast. Although development south of the international border is uncertain, some global guidance (and a convection-allowing model or two) suggest isolated development is possible. Moderate buoyancy and effective shear of 35-40 kt over far northern Minnesota suggest a conditional risk for severe wind/hail would exist if/where storm development occurs. ...Missouri/Mid-South.. Near and west/southwest of a residual front, a few strong/locally damaging wind gusts will be possible again this afternoon with pulse-type storms within a weakly-sheared but strongly unstable (MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg) thermodynamic environment. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN MINNESOTA...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND COASTAL NC/SC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts are possible across Wyoming into western South Dakota this afternoon to early evening, as well as portions of the Mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe hail and damaging winds are also possible across far northern Minnesota this afternoon. A brief tornado is possible in the northeast North Carolina vicinity in the early morning Tuesday. ...20Z Update... The Marginal Risk in the Mid MS Valley was expanded slightly northward across IA. Diurnal heating/destabilization amid middle/upper 60s dewpoints is yielding moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy along a remnant north-south-oriented surface boundary. Given around 25-30 kt of effective shear, a couple loosely organized storms may become capable of producing strong gusts and marginally severe hail. ..Weinman.. 09/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025/ ...Wyoming to Black Hills vicinity... A shortwave trough over western Idaho will move east across Wyoming/western South Dakota during the day, as several embedded vorticity maxima contribute regions of enhanced ascent. Steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-9 deg C/km, combined with diurnal heating, will result in MLCAPE of a few hundred J/kg across much of the area. Despite weak buoyancy, the favorably-timed ascent will contribute to thunderstorm development/intensification this afternoon as storms approach northeast Wyoming/western South Dakota. Some hail could occur, and a deep and well-mixed boundary layer will lead to high-based convection capable of isolated strong/damaging gusts through early evening, with intensities diminishing thereafter as nocturnal cooling commences. ...Northeast North Carolina/southeast Virginia... A surface low southeast of Cape Hatteras is forecast to move towards the North Carolina coast through 12z Tuesday, with a belt of stronger low-level flow developing north/northwest of the low. Variability remains regarding the forecast location of the low and strength of low-level winds, however a conditional risk for a tornado would exist late tonight through early Tuesday morning with stronger convective elements, should sufficient low-level hodograph curvature develop as high theta-e air is advected west. ...Far northern Minnesota... Thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon within a northwest-southeast oriented arc from southeast Manitoba across northeast Ontario as a shortwave trough becomes increasingly negatively tilted while lifting northeast. Although development south of the international border is uncertain, some global guidance (and a convection-allowing model or two) suggest isolated development is possible. Moderate buoyancy and effective shear of 35-40 kt over far northern Minnesota suggest a conditional risk for severe wind/hail would exist if/where storm development occurs. ...Missouri/Mid-South.. Near and west/southwest of a residual front, a few strong/locally damaging wind gusts will be possible again this afternoon with pulse-type storms within a weakly-sheared but strongly unstable (MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg) thermodynamic environment. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN MINNESOTA...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND COASTAL NC/SC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts are possible across Wyoming into western South Dakota this afternoon to early evening, as well as portions of the Mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe hail and damaging winds are also possible across far northern Minnesota this afternoon. A brief tornado is possible in the northeast North Carolina vicinity in the early morning Tuesday. ...20Z Update... The Marginal Risk in the Mid MS Valley was expanded slightly northward across IA. Diurnal heating/destabilization amid middle/upper 60s dewpoints is yielding moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy along a remnant north-south-oriented surface boundary. Given around 25-30 kt of effective shear, a couple loosely organized storms may become capable of producing strong gusts and marginally severe hail. ..Weinman.. 09/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025/ ...Wyoming to Black Hills vicinity... A shortwave trough over western Idaho will move east across Wyoming/western South Dakota during the day, as several embedded vorticity maxima contribute regions of enhanced ascent. Steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-9 deg C/km, combined with diurnal heating, will result in MLCAPE of a few hundred J/kg across much of the area. Despite weak buoyancy, the favorably-timed ascent will contribute to thunderstorm development/intensification this afternoon as storms approach northeast Wyoming/western South Dakota. Some hail could occur, and a deep and well-mixed boundary layer will lead to high-based convection capable of isolated strong/damaging gusts through early evening, with intensities diminishing thereafter as nocturnal cooling commences. ...Northeast North Carolina/southeast Virginia... A surface low southeast of Cape Hatteras is forecast to move towards the North Carolina coast through 12z Tuesday, with a belt of stronger low-level flow developing north/northwest of the low. Variability remains regarding the forecast location of the low and strength of low-level winds, however a conditional risk for a tornado would exist late tonight through early Tuesday morning with stronger convective elements, should sufficient low-level hodograph curvature develop as high theta-e air is advected west. ...Far northern Minnesota... Thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon within a northwest-southeast oriented arc from southeast Manitoba across northeast Ontario as a shortwave trough becomes increasingly negatively tilted while lifting northeast. Although development south of the international border is uncertain, some global guidance (and a convection-allowing model or two) suggest isolated development is possible. Moderate buoyancy and effective shear of 35-40 kt over far northern Minnesota suggest a conditional risk for severe wind/hail would exist if/where storm development occurs. ...Missouri/Mid-South.. Near and west/southwest of a residual front, a few strong/locally damaging wind gusts will be possible again this afternoon with pulse-type storms within a weakly-sheared but strongly unstable (MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg) thermodynamic environment. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN MINNESOTA...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND COASTAL NC/SC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts are possible across Wyoming into western South Dakota this afternoon to early evening, as well as portions of the Mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe hail and damaging winds are also possible across far northern Minnesota this afternoon. A brief tornado is possible in the northeast North Carolina vicinity in the early morning Tuesday. ...20Z Update... The Marginal Risk in the Mid MS Valley was expanded slightly northward across IA. Diurnal heating/destabilization amid middle/upper 60s dewpoints is yielding moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy along a remnant north-south-oriented surface boundary. Given around 25-30 kt of effective shear, a couple loosely organized storms may become capable of producing strong gusts and marginally severe hail. ..Weinman.. 09/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025/ ...Wyoming to Black Hills vicinity... A shortwave trough over western Idaho will move east across Wyoming/western South Dakota during the day, as several embedded vorticity maxima contribute regions of enhanced ascent. Steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-9 deg C/km, combined with diurnal heating, will result in MLCAPE of a few hundred J/kg across much of the area. Despite weak buoyancy, the favorably-timed ascent will contribute to thunderstorm development/intensification this afternoon as storms approach northeast Wyoming/western South Dakota. Some hail could occur, and a deep and well-mixed boundary layer will lead to high-based convection capable of isolated strong/damaging gusts through early evening, with intensities diminishing thereafter as nocturnal cooling commences. ...Northeast North Carolina/southeast Virginia... A surface low southeast of Cape Hatteras is forecast to move towards the North Carolina coast through 12z Tuesday, with a belt of stronger low-level flow developing north/northwest of the low. Variability remains regarding the forecast location of the low and strength of low-level winds, however a conditional risk for a tornado would exist late tonight through early Tuesday morning with stronger convective elements, should sufficient low-level hodograph curvature develop as high theta-e air is advected west. ...Far northern Minnesota... Thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon within a northwest-southeast oriented arc from southeast Manitoba across northeast Ontario as a shortwave trough becomes increasingly negatively tilted while lifting northeast. Although development south of the international border is uncertain, some global guidance (and a convection-allowing model or two) suggest isolated development is possible. Moderate buoyancy and effective shear of 35-40 kt over far northern Minnesota suggest a conditional risk for severe wind/hail would exist if/where storm development occurs. ...Missouri/Mid-South.. Near and west/southwest of a residual front, a few strong/locally damaging wind gusts will be possible again this afternoon with pulse-type storms within a weakly-sheared but strongly unstable (MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg) thermodynamic environment. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN MINNESOTA...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND COASTAL NC/SC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts are possible across Wyoming into western South Dakota this afternoon to early evening, as well as portions of the Mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe hail and damaging winds are also possible across far northern Minnesota this afternoon. A brief tornado is possible in the northeast North Carolina vicinity in the early morning Tuesday. ...20Z Update... The Marginal Risk in the Mid MS Valley was expanded slightly northward across IA. Diurnal heating/destabilization amid middle/upper 60s dewpoints is yielding moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy along a remnant north-south-oriented surface boundary. Given around 25-30 kt of effective shear, a couple loosely organized storms may become capable of producing strong gusts and marginally severe hail. ..Weinman.. 09/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025/ ...Wyoming to Black Hills vicinity... A shortwave trough over western Idaho will move east across Wyoming/western South Dakota during the day, as several embedded vorticity maxima contribute regions of enhanced ascent. Steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-9 deg C/km, combined with diurnal heating, will result in MLCAPE of a few hundred J/kg across much of the area. Despite weak buoyancy, the favorably-timed ascent will contribute to thunderstorm development/intensification this afternoon as storms approach northeast Wyoming/western South Dakota. Some hail could occur, and a deep and well-mixed boundary layer will lead to high-based convection capable of isolated strong/damaging gusts through early evening, with intensities diminishing thereafter as nocturnal cooling commences. ...Northeast North Carolina/southeast Virginia... A surface low southeast of Cape Hatteras is forecast to move towards the North Carolina coast through 12z Tuesday, with a belt of stronger low-level flow developing north/northwest of the low. Variability remains regarding the forecast location of the low and strength of low-level winds, however a conditional risk for a tornado would exist late tonight through early Tuesday morning with stronger convective elements, should sufficient low-level hodograph curvature develop as high theta-e air is advected west. ...Far northern Minnesota... Thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon within a northwest-southeast oriented arc from southeast Manitoba across northeast Ontario as a shortwave trough becomes increasingly negatively tilted while lifting northeast. Although development south of the international border is uncertain, some global guidance (and a convection-allowing model or two) suggest isolated development is possible. Moderate buoyancy and effective shear of 35-40 kt over far northern Minnesota suggest a conditional risk for severe wind/hail would exist if/where storm development occurs. ...Missouri/Mid-South.. Near and west/southwest of a residual front, a few strong/locally damaging wind gusts will be possible again this afternoon with pulse-type storms within a weakly-sheared but strongly unstable (MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg) thermodynamic environment. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN MINNESOTA...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND COASTAL NC/SC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts are possible across Wyoming into western South Dakota this afternoon to early evening, as well as portions of the Mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe hail and damaging winds are also possible across far northern Minnesota this afternoon. A brief tornado is possible in the northeast North Carolina vicinity in the early morning Tuesday. ...20Z Update... The Marginal Risk in the Mid MS Valley was expanded slightly northward across IA. Diurnal heating/destabilization amid middle/upper 60s dewpoints is yielding moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy along a remnant north-south-oriented surface boundary. Given around 25-30 kt of effective shear, a couple loosely organized storms may become capable of producing strong gusts and marginally severe hail. ..Weinman.. 09/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025/ ...Wyoming to Black Hills vicinity... A shortwave trough over western Idaho will move east across Wyoming/western South Dakota during the day, as several embedded vorticity maxima contribute regions of enhanced ascent. Steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-9 deg C/km, combined with diurnal heating, will result in MLCAPE of a few hundred J/kg across much of the area. Despite weak buoyancy, the favorably-timed ascent will contribute to thunderstorm development/intensification this afternoon as storms approach northeast Wyoming/western South Dakota. Some hail could occur, and a deep and well-mixed boundary layer will lead to high-based convection capable of isolated strong/damaging gusts through early evening, with intensities diminishing thereafter as nocturnal cooling commences. ...Northeast North Carolina/southeast Virginia... A surface low southeast of Cape Hatteras is forecast to move towards the North Carolina coast through 12z Tuesday, with a belt of stronger low-level flow developing north/northwest of the low. Variability remains regarding the forecast location of the low and strength of low-level winds, however a conditional risk for a tornado would exist late tonight through early Tuesday morning with stronger convective elements, should sufficient low-level hodograph curvature develop as high theta-e air is advected west. ...Far northern Minnesota... Thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon within a northwest-southeast oriented arc from southeast Manitoba across northeast Ontario as a shortwave trough becomes increasingly negatively tilted while lifting northeast. Although development south of the international border is uncertain, some global guidance (and a convection-allowing model or two) suggest isolated development is possible. Moderate buoyancy and effective shear of 35-40 kt over far northern Minnesota suggest a conditional risk for severe wind/hail would exist if/where storm development occurs. ...Missouri/Mid-South.. Near and west/southwest of a residual front, a few strong/locally damaging wind gusts will be possible again this afternoon with pulse-type storms within a weakly-sheared but strongly unstable (MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg) thermodynamic environment. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN MINNESOTA...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND COASTAL NC/SC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts are possible across Wyoming into western South Dakota this afternoon to early evening, as well as portions of the Mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe hail and damaging winds are also possible across far northern Minnesota this afternoon. A brief tornado is possible in the northeast North Carolina vicinity in the early morning Tuesday. ...20Z Update... The Marginal Risk in the Mid MS Valley was expanded slightly northward across IA. Diurnal heating/destabilization amid middle/upper 60s dewpoints is yielding moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy along a remnant north-south-oriented surface boundary. Given around 25-30 kt of effective shear, a couple loosely organized storms may become capable of producing strong gusts and marginally severe hail. ..Weinman.. 09/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025/ ...Wyoming to Black Hills vicinity... A shortwave trough over western Idaho will move east across Wyoming/western South Dakota during the day, as several embedded vorticity maxima contribute regions of enhanced ascent. Steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-9 deg C/km, combined with diurnal heating, will result in MLCAPE of a few hundred J/kg across much of the area. Despite weak buoyancy, the favorably-timed ascent will contribute to thunderstorm development/intensification this afternoon as storms approach northeast Wyoming/western South Dakota. Some hail could occur, and a deep and well-mixed boundary layer will lead to high-based convection capable of isolated strong/damaging gusts through early evening, with intensities diminishing thereafter as nocturnal cooling commences. ...Northeast North Carolina/southeast Virginia... A surface low southeast of Cape Hatteras is forecast to move towards the North Carolina coast through 12z Tuesday, with a belt of stronger low-level flow developing north/northwest of the low. Variability remains regarding the forecast location of the low and strength of low-level winds, however a conditional risk for a tornado would exist late tonight through early Tuesday morning with stronger convective elements, should sufficient low-level hodograph curvature develop as high theta-e air is advected west. ...Far northern Minnesota... Thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon within a northwest-southeast oriented arc from southeast Manitoba across northeast Ontario as a shortwave trough becomes increasingly negatively tilted while lifting northeast. Although development south of the international border is uncertain, some global guidance (and a convection-allowing model or two) suggest isolated development is possible. Moderate buoyancy and effective shear of 35-40 kt over far northern Minnesota suggest a conditional risk for severe wind/hail would exist if/where storm development occurs. ...Missouri/Mid-South.. Near and west/southwest of a residual front, a few strong/locally damaging wind gusts will be possible again this afternoon with pulse-type storms within a weakly-sheared but strongly unstable (MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg) thermodynamic environment. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...NORTHERN MINNESOTA...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND COASTAL NC/SC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts are possible across Wyoming into western South Dakota this afternoon to early evening, as well as portions of the Mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe hail and damaging winds are also possible across far northern Minnesota this afternoon. A brief tornado is possible in the northeast North Carolina vicinity in the early morning Tuesday. ...20Z Update... The Marginal Risk in the Mid MS Valley was expanded slightly northward across IA. Diurnal heating/destabilization amid middle/upper 60s dewpoints is yielding moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy along a remnant north-south-oriented surface boundary. Given around 25-30 kt of effective shear, a couple loosely organized storms may become capable of producing strong gusts and marginally severe hail. ..Weinman.. 09/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025/ ...Wyoming to Black Hills vicinity... A shortwave trough over western Idaho will move east across Wyoming/western South Dakota during the day, as several embedded vorticity maxima contribute regions of enhanced ascent. Steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-9 deg C/km, combined with diurnal heating, will result in MLCAPE of a few hundred J/kg across much of the area. Despite weak buoyancy, the favorably-timed ascent will contribute to thunderstorm development/intensification this afternoon as storms approach northeast Wyoming/western South Dakota. Some hail could occur, and a deep and well-mixed boundary layer will lead to high-based convection capable of isolated strong/damaging gusts through early evening, with intensities diminishing thereafter as nocturnal cooling commences. ...Northeast North Carolina/southeast Virginia... A surface low southeast of Cape Hatteras is forecast to move towards the North Carolina coast through 12z Tuesday, with a belt of stronger low-level flow developing north/northwest of the low. Variability remains regarding the forecast location of the low and strength of low-level winds, however a conditional risk for a tornado would exist late tonight through early Tuesday morning with stronger convective elements, should sufficient low-level hodograph curvature develop as high theta-e air is advected west. ...Far northern Minnesota... Thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon within a northwest-southeast oriented arc from southeast Manitoba across northeast Ontario as a shortwave trough becomes increasingly negatively tilted while lifting northeast. Although development south of the international border is uncertain, some global guidance (and a convection-allowing model or two) suggest isolated development is possible. Moderate buoyancy and effective shear of 35-40 kt over far northern Minnesota suggest a conditional risk for severe wind/hail would exist if/where storm development occurs. ...Missouri/Mid-South.. Near and west/southwest of a residual front, a few strong/locally damaging wind gusts will be possible again this afternoon with pulse-type storms within a weakly-sheared but strongly unstable (MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg) thermodynamic environment. Read more

The fire risk was elevated across the Ozarks, leading fire officials to ask the public to avoid or be especially careful with fire outdoors. The Squires Volunteer Fire Department in Douglas County warned residents via Facebook to be careful burning materials outdoors after a large brush fire on September 11 resulted in two small outbuildings being destroyed by the blaze. Ozarks First (Springfield, Mo.), Sep 15, 2025

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is low on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the central/northern High Plains will make limited progress eastward into the Plains on Wednesday. This feature is expected to broaden and become more disorganized with time. A surface trough/cold front from the central Plains into the southern High Plains will similarly be mostly stationary until later in the period. Mid-level flow in the Plains will generally remain weak with only a modest increase behind the cold front closer to the upper trough. Morning clouds and precipitation are expected to be ongoing in the central Plains and parts of the southern High Plains. Upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints will be ahead of the boundary. This will lead to weak to moderate buoyancy. Thunderstorms are likely in the Front Range where low-end moisture and upslope flow overlap. This activity may not be very intense given the buoyancy and uncertain low-level thermodynamics. Thunderstorms in Kansas/Oklahoma will have greater buoyancy, but shear will be more limited. Depending on the position of the front and destabilization, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms could develop in the Raton Mesa vicinity. Marginal northwesterly deep-layer shear could promote a couple of stronger storms given steep lapse rates. However, confidence in a more organized severe threat in the Plains remains low at this time. ..Wendt.. 09/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is low on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the central/northern High Plains will make limited progress eastward into the Plains on Wednesday. This feature is expected to broaden and become more disorganized with time. A surface trough/cold front from the central Plains into the southern High Plains will similarly be mostly stationary until later in the period. Mid-level flow in the Plains will generally remain weak with only a modest increase behind the cold front closer to the upper trough. Morning clouds and precipitation are expected to be ongoing in the central Plains and parts of the southern High Plains. Upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints will be ahead of the boundary. This will lead to weak to moderate buoyancy. Thunderstorms are likely in the Front Range where low-end moisture and upslope flow overlap. This activity may not be very intense given the buoyancy and uncertain low-level thermodynamics. Thunderstorms in Kansas/Oklahoma will have greater buoyancy, but shear will be more limited. Depending on the position of the front and destabilization, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms could develop in the Raton Mesa vicinity. Marginal northwesterly deep-layer shear could promote a couple of stronger storms given steep lapse rates. However, confidence in a more organized severe threat in the Plains remains low at this time. ..Wendt.. 09/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is low on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the central/northern High Plains will make limited progress eastward into the Plains on Wednesday. This feature is expected to broaden and become more disorganized with time. A surface trough/cold front from the central Plains into the southern High Plains will similarly be mostly stationary until later in the period. Mid-level flow in the Plains will generally remain weak with only a modest increase behind the cold front closer to the upper trough. Morning clouds and precipitation are expected to be ongoing in the central Plains and parts of the southern High Plains. Upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints will be ahead of the boundary. This will lead to weak to moderate buoyancy. Thunderstorms are likely in the Front Range where low-end moisture and upslope flow overlap. This activity may not be very intense given the buoyancy and uncertain low-level thermodynamics. Thunderstorms in Kansas/Oklahoma will have greater buoyancy, but shear will be more limited. Depending on the position of the front and destabilization, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms could develop in the Raton Mesa vicinity. Marginal northwesterly deep-layer shear could promote a couple of stronger storms given steep lapse rates. However, confidence in a more organized severe threat in the Plains remains low at this time. ..Wendt.. 09/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is low on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the central/northern High Plains will make limited progress eastward into the Plains on Wednesday. This feature is expected to broaden and become more disorganized with time. A surface trough/cold front from the central Plains into the southern High Plains will similarly be mostly stationary until later in the period. Mid-level flow in the Plains will generally remain weak with only a modest increase behind the cold front closer to the upper trough. Morning clouds and precipitation are expected to be ongoing in the central Plains and parts of the southern High Plains. Upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints will be ahead of the boundary. This will lead to weak to moderate buoyancy. Thunderstorms are likely in the Front Range where low-end moisture and upslope flow overlap. This activity may not be very intense given the buoyancy and uncertain low-level thermodynamics. Thunderstorms in Kansas/Oklahoma will have greater buoyancy, but shear will be more limited. Depending on the position of the front and destabilization, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms could develop in the Raton Mesa vicinity. Marginal northwesterly deep-layer shear could promote a couple of stronger storms given steep lapse rates. However, confidence in a more organized severe threat in the Plains remains low at this time. ..Wendt.. 09/15/2025 Read more